Analysis Of Electricity Consumption Research Articles

Fuzzy Time-Series Model of Electric Power Consumption

In this paper, the authors present a data analysis and estimation procedure of electrical power consumption under uncertain conditions. Tiraditional methods are based on statistical and probabilistic approaches but it may not be quite suitable to apply purely stochastic models to the data generated by human activities such as the power consumption. The authors introduce a new approach based on possibility theory and fuzzy autoregression, and apply it to the analysis of time-series data of electric power consumption. Two models, which are different in complexity, are presented, and the performance of the models are evaluated by vagueness and α-cuts. The proposed fuzzy Auoregression model represents the rich information of uncertainty that the original data contain, and it can be a powerful tool for flexible decision-making with uncertainty. The fuzzy AR model can also be constructed in relatively simple procedure compared with the conventional approaches.

Energy conservation strategies for school buildings in Riyadh

SYNOPSIS Although the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is one of the main oil producing countries, yet the latest five year development plan calls for energy conservation [1]. Due to the expansion of the Saudi economy which is reflected by the challenging and ambitious development in various sectors such as housing, health, industry, agriculture, education etc, the consumption of electric energy experienced a sharp increase during the last twenty years. Electric energy consumption in the central region of Saudi Arabia increased from 4,236,000 MWh in 1981 to 12,996,000 MWh in 1988. Since 1983 the Ministry of Education started implementing various strategies to conserve energy consumption by school buildings. In the 1990s more attention is geared towards improving the U-value of the external envelope through the use of hollow blocks and thermal insulation. This study is an attempt to investigate the effectiveness of the use of thermal insulation and hollow blocks in reducing energy consumption. This is conducted by the analysis of actual electric energy consumption of some selected examples of school buildings in Riyadh. Also the study will investigate other energy conservation strategies which might yield additional energy savings. This shall be carried out through the analysis of Riyadh climate.

96/00498 Analysis of electrical energy generation and consumption in Jordan

96/00498 Analysis of electrical energy generation and consumption in Jordan

Analysis of electrical energy generation and consumption in Jordan

Electrical energy generation and consumption in Jordan are analysed and discussed. The consumption levels in various sectors were correlated and expressed by polynomials of second or third degree with an error of ±5%.

An integrated bayesian vector auto regression and error correction model for forecasting electricity consumption and prices

AbstractThe analysis and forecasting of electricity consumption and prices has received considerable attention over the past forty years. In the 1950s and 1960s most of these forecasts and analyses were generated by simultaneous equation econometric models. Beginning in the 1970s, there was a shift in the modeling of economic variables from the structural equations approach with strong identifying restrictions towards a joint time‐series model with very few restrictions. One such model is the vector auto regression (VAR) model. It was soon discovered that the unrestricted VAR models do not forecast well. The Bayesian vector auto regression (BVAR) approach as well the error correction model (ECM) and models based on the theory of co integration have been offered as alternatives to the simple VAR model. This paper argues that the BVAF., ECM, and co integration models are simply VAR models with various restrictions placed on the coefficients. Based on this notion of a restricted VAR model, a four‐step procedure for specifying VAR forecasting models is presented and then applied to monthly data on US electricity consumption and prices.

Dynamic structural analysis and forecasting of residential electricity consumption

This paper studies the dynamic relationships between electricity consumption and several potentially relevant variables, such as weather, price, and consumer income. Monthly data from January 1969 to December 1990 for all-electric residences in the southeast United States are used for this study. Because of the nature of the annual weather cycle, several of these time series are highly seasonal. Multiple-input transfer function models are employed to analyze the data for their dynamic structure and to evaluate future levels of electricity consumption. The linear transfer function (LTF) method is employed in the identification of transfer function models for structural analysis and forecasting. A major finding is that price plays a major role in explaining conservation behavior by electricity consumers. This result has important implications for forecasting the consumption of electric energy. This paper also demonstrates the appropriate construction of models for economic time series with strong seasonality.

Estimation of the demand for electricity

The residential consumer of electricity is often faced with a price schedule, where the price per kWh differs according to the amountof electricity consumed. 1 Instead of a single price per kWh, a price schedule exists, from which electricity is purchased in blocks at a decreasing marginal price. In a econometric demand analysis of household electricity consumption, one of the main questions is concerned with the price varible to be chosen. Should it be the marginal price, the average price, or perhaps both price varibles? In this study, residential demand functions for electricity are estimated employing different price variables. In demand functions employing both average price and marginal price the coefficients on average price are ‘right’; the negative signs reflect the expected inverse relationships between the quality of electricity demanded and the average price. On the other hand, nonsignificant but positive signs on marginal price are obtained. This result contradicts the findings of Roth (1981)...

A social-psychological analysis of residential electricity consumption: the impact of minimal justification techniques

To explore the impact of the foot-in-the-door technique on residential energy conservation 66 homeowners were asked to curtail their consumption of electricity by 10%. In the Foot-in-the-Door condition this target request was preceded by a more moderate one to answer a short energy conservation questionnaire. Homeowners in the Second Request Only condition simply received the conservation request while those in the First Request Only condition received the questionnaire alone. These groups were compared to a Control group of homeowners who were never asked to comply to either request. The groups did not differ in electricity consumption during the 2 week baseline period or in their percentage change from baseline during the 4 week request period. However, throughout the 12 week follow-up period homeowners in all three request groups consumed significantly less electricity than Controls. In addition, the Foot-in-the-Door group contained significantly more Conservers than any other group. These findings were contrasted with the results of behavioral energy studies emphasizing strong external justifications. The implications of minimal justification techniques for producing long-term maintenance of energy conserving behaviors and for promoting their occurrence across a large population of individuals were also discussed.

Electricity Consumption by the Elderly: Policy Implications

The results of a multivariate analysis of residential electricity consumption by the elderly show that of several long-term, structural factors related to this level of consumption, income is the least influential. However, the same analysis indicates that the distributional impacts of electric bills discriminate against the elderly.

Reducing Electricity Consumption of Residents Living in Mass-Metered Dormitory Complexes

Monetary incentives for reduced electricity consumption by residents living in mass-metered university dormitories were provided via a contest and contest-raffle. In the contest, reduced electricity consumption of a group of students was reinforced with group consequences. In the contest-raffle, reduced electricity consumption of a group of students was reinforced with individual consequences. A control condition measured normal fluctuations in electricity use. Electricity consumption by residents in the contest and contest-raffle was consistently lower than consumption by residents in the control condition throughout the treatment period. Also, consumption by male residents was lower than consumption by female residents. Analysis of electricity consumption during a post-treatment baseline period suggested residual effects due to the contest and contest-raffle. Residents' reactions to the contest and contest-raffle were assessed through telephone interviews. It was suggested that energy conservation programs incorporate elements based on behavioral technology as well as physical technology.

Duplicate Locks for Illinois Waterway

Results of a study by the Corps of Engineers indicating the advisability of providing duplicate locks along the Illinois Waterway are presented. The waterway provides the only water connection between the Mississippi River-Ohio River navigation system and the Great Lakes. It is completely canalized, i. e., it consists of a series of pools created by a system of locks and dams. An analysis of future electric power requirements and coal consumption, trends in population and gross national product, and other information indicated that prospective commerce on the waterway below Lockport will reach 32,700,000 tons by the year 1970 and 55,000,000 tons by 2020. Statistics on lock operation, annual commerce through each lock and on the waterway were used in determining capacities of the existing single locks. Comparison of the waterway capacity as limited by the existing single locks with the estimated prospective commerce indicated that economical transportation of waterborne commerce will not be possible without provision of an additional lock at each existing lock site. Times of construction of the various additional locks were determined when the capacity of each existing lock would be reached.