Some great pundit once remarked, Every time has its technology, and every technology has its time. Although this is a somewhat simplistic view of technology, it is indeed true that when one thinks of a time period (especially in modern times) one always associates with it the key technologies that revolutionized the way people lived then. For example, key technologies that came of age in the 1970s include the VLSI integrated circuit, the photocopier, the computer terminal, MOS memory, and scanners. In the 1980s we saw the advent and growth of the personal computer, fiber optics, FAX machines, and medical imaging systems of all types. It is not too difficult to predict what some of the key technologies of the 1990s will be; these include voice processing, image processing, wireless communications, and personal information terminals. If we examine the various technologies noted above and look at the interval between the time the technology was and the time the technology began to mature and grow, we see a very complex and intricate relationship. For example, the basic principles of FAX were well understood for more than 150 years. However, until there were established worldwide standards for transmission and reception of FAX documents, the technology remained an intellectual curiosity that was shown and discussed primarily in the research laboratory. Similarly, the concept (and realization) of a videophone was demonstrated at the New York World's Fair in 1964 (so-called Picturephone Service), but the first commercially viable instruments were actually produced and sold in 1992. In this case it took a bandwidth reduction (from 1.5 Mbps down to 19.2 Kbps) and a major cost reduction, as well as algorithm breakthroughs in voice and video coding and in modem design, to achieve this minor miracle. Other technologies were able to leave the research laboratory rather rapidly, sometimes in response to national imperatives (e.g., miniaturization for the space program), and sometimes in response to business necessities. Hence, when fiber optic lines were first mass produced in the 1980s, it was estimated that it would take about two decades to convert the analog transmission facilities of the old Bell System to digital form. In reality the long-distance telephone network was fully digital by the end of 1989, fully 10 plus years before predicted. Similarly, in the case of telephony, it was predicted that it would be about a decade before there would be 1 million phones in use in the United States. By the end of 1992 (i.e., about 8 years after the beginning of the cellular revolution), the 10-millionth phone was already operating in the United States, and the rate of growth of both and wireless telephony was continuing unabated. Now we come to the decade of the 1990s and we have already seen strong evidence that the key technologies that are evolv-
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