Amount Of Unemployment Research Articles

Previous occupational stability as a predictor of employment after psychiatric rehabilitation.

Several indices of occupational stability are discussed and the importance of controlling for age in assessing occupational stability emphasized. The ability of 6 indices to predict the stable resettlement of psychiatric patients at work after a course of rehabilitation was examined. Though mean job length was a significant predictor, indices based on change of occupation rather than change of job were more successful. Stable resettlement at work was related to how much time people had spent in long jobs but not to how little time they had spent in short jobs. The amount of unemployment during the 2 years before hospital admission predicted return to work immediately after discharge, but did not predict stable resettlement at work.

Unemployment in Belgium and Full Employment Policy

Post-war experience of unemployment in Belgium is of interest for several reasons. First, as one of the few examples of serious unemployment in an industrial country of Western Europe since the war, it offers an opportunity to consider the applicability of full employment techniques in a particular situation. Secondly, it demonstrates the deliberate use of deflationary pressure to bring about structural readjustments. Thirdly, it suggests that a democratic country may tolerate a considerable amount of unemployment rather than carry out a full employment policy, the success of which is assumed to involve measures which tend to erode the basis of a free economy. By free economy in this context is meant one in which there are no direct controls over consumption or investment and no direct regulation of commodity or factor prices or the movement of labour. Belgium may be considered to have approximated to this situation during most of the period with which this article is concerned, namely from the beginning of I948 to the middle of I950. The article will deal with the unemployment situation in relation to full employment policy, defined as some combination of monetary-fiscal policies and public investment compatible with a free economy. It will be divided into three parts; first, the nature of the unemployment problem; second, employment policy; third, factors determining policy. I The development of employment and unemployment in post-war Belgium can be broadly traced from Table I. The first signs of a lapse from full employment appeared before the end of I947. During the first six months of I948 the number of wholly unemployed remained below 4 per cent. of the insured working population, but in the fourth quarter of I948 the upward trend accelerated,

Unemployment and Unemployability

THE INTER-RELATIONSHIP between the amount of unemployment and standards of unemployability has long been recognized but inadequately discussed in texts and non-technical books. Changing standards of employability arising from the amount of unemployment, have direct effect on the problem of dependence of marginal groups of workers, such as the aged, the blind, and workers with other handicaps. As will be shown, this relationship is not a newly recognized one. Beveridge pointed out the relationship nearly forty years ago in his Unemployment A Problem of Industry which is quoted from briefly in subsequent paragraphs. A number of others have commented similarly. But an examination of several of the more commonly used texts in general economics does not reveal a single one that develops this relationship, however briefly, in even an elementary manner.' An examination of the standard texts in labor economics shows a somewhat better situation. Here an inter-relationship is frequently recognized but in no instance is it given adequate treatment.2 Perhaps this inadequate treatment arises from varying personal evaluations of what is important but this is

Full Employment and International Trade

TO-DAY it is widely believed that the supreme aim of economic policy should be to provide full employment. Anybody who dares to criticise this article of faith is deemed to utter, in the words of St. Paul, vain and profane babblings . That is what now propose to do. Let me hasten to say at once that of course think full employment very desirable, and that of course agree that one of the principal aims of public policy should be to create conditions under which full employment is possible. But other things are very desirable too-for example, liberty and peace and better standards of living and less economic inequality and more social security. And a clash may easily arise between one of these aims and the aim of full employment. For example, it is very simple to abolish unemployment by abolishing liberty at the same time. If free trade unions are suppressed and strikes forbidden, if workers are not allowed to choose jobs or refuse them but must do what they are told, then of course full employment could be achieved. But think most of us would prefer our liberty. In the same way, war nearly always means full employment. This is partly because of the conscription of labour and partly because of vast Government expenditure. In 1942 heard one very eminent economist say of the United States: I always knew they could eliminate unemployment if only the Government spent enough. Most of us would think some LI 5 million a day rather too high a price, and in any event we would prefer peace to full employment plus war. The clash shall speak of this evening is the clash which may arise between full employment and better standards of living, with special reference to international trade. Standards of living depend mainly on output per head. Let us begin, therefore, by asking how significant unemployment is from this standpoint. Would full employment give us a world of plenty ? must remind you that a certain amount of unemployment is inevitable. At any moment some workers are seeking new jobs, some are not at work owing to bad weather, and some will not be able to earn the minimum standard rates fixed for their occupationunless special provision is made for this sub-normal minority, they will be able to get work only intermittently. It is generally recognised that a normal state of full employment would include a number out of work at any given moment. Thus, even in France, where the 1 The substance of an Inaugural Lecture delivered at the London School of Economics on zznd January, 1946, with Professor Robbins in the chair.

Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles

Full Recovery or Stagnation? By ALVIN H. HANSEN. New York: W.H. Norton and Company, Inc. 1938. Pp. 350. ($4.00) Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles. By ALVIN H. HANSEN. New York: W. H. Norton and Company, Inc. 1941. Pp. ix, 462. ($3.60) Full Recovery or Stagnation? has been largely put together from book reviews and other papers which have appeared from time to time elsewhere. To a lesser extent this is also true of Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles. Both books in a general way focus about the problem of how to maintain full employment having regard to the rhythm of business activity. Possibly owing partly to the way these volumes have been built up, the material in neither appears to have been reduced to a unity. The author's viewpoint seems to vary as he passes from the consideration of one topic to another. In the earlier volume Hansen appears to be very distrustful of the ability of democratic processes to cope with modern economic problems. He stresses the unlikelihood of democracy pursuing for long a consistent monetary policy and points out that modern democracies have "so often demonstrated a lack of capacity in self-control." In the later volume he puts forward the idea of a dual economy that will provide an escape "from a highly regimented private industrial system on the one side and an equally highly regimented collectivist system on the other." This, one gathers, he thinks might be worked out on a basis of compromise that would enable democracy to survive. Professor Hansen has been enormously impressed by the 1923-9 boom in the United States and the appalling amount of unemployment and suffering which arose in the succeeding depression. He urges that a course of public policy be pursued that will ensure the maintenance of full employment and prevent the recurrence of depressions. His proposition is large expenditures by the government to maintain income until private investment develops again to high levels.' The basis of Professor Hansen's position is his view that such a large proportion of income is saved annually that from time to time consumption does not absorb the flow of consumption goods currently produced. In the then existing state of public tastes and production costs every effective demand is satisfied. There are no outlets for new investment.

Mobility of Employment of Young People in Meriden, Connecticut

This study1 involves a detailed analysis of the employment histories of a random sample of the residents of Meriden between the ages of 14 and 30 years as of January 1, 1934. The data were obtained from an educa tional census taken by C.W.A. workers from December 1933 to Febru ary 1934. The results are not presented with any degree of confidence in their factual significance, which is precluded by the small number of cases, but with the hope that an exploratory method of analysis may be of in terest for subsequent investigators. The careers of a group of young people are followed through, year by year, from the point when they be came available for employment to the date of the survey ; the initial period of unemployment before getting a first job, the length of the first period of continuous employment, the subsequent periods of unemployment, and shifting from job to job until relative occupational stability was obtained, are analyzed and related to the amount of schooling and other factors. Summary.?The impact of the depression upon the young people of Meriden is shown by the lengthening period of initial unemployment. At the time of the survey no less than 40 percent of the young men becoming available for work between 1930 and 1933 had not obtained work within a year of becoming available, whereas only 18 percent of the group be coming available in the preceding 7 years had failed to find work within a year. The effect of the depression is still further shown by the increas ing frequency and amount of unemployment : 75 percent of those becom ing available from 1930 to 1933 experienced one or more periods of un employment as contrasted with 59 percent of those from 1923 to 1929. Sixty-five percent of the men becoming available from 1923 to 1926 were employed throughout their first three years of availability, but only 52 percent of those from 1927 to 1930. Before 1930, the men with higher edu cation had experienced greater stability of employment than had those with less education. Nearly all high school graduates found employment immediately, as contrasted with about 69 percent of those with not more than grammar school education and about 76 percent of those who had

Two Problems of Unemployment Insurance

Should the insuring unit be a state-wide pool or should it be based upon separate plant or industry reserves? As is well-known, there is a vital difference between the Wisconsin plan which is based on individual plant reserves and the Ohio plan which calls for a state-wide pooling of reserves with merit rating for industries and firms after an initial period. As an intermediate form, industry pools are proposed by some. One of the first features to be noted in connection with this problem is the fact that since the relative volume of unemployment differs so widely between industries and plants that if we use the plant or the industry as the reserve unit then one and possibly both of two consequences follow: (a) If approximately equal assessments are levied upon the various units then the benefits will be grossly unequal, and (b) in order to ensure equality of benefits there will have to be a great inequality of assessment. Thus even within the same industry the amount of unemployment will vary appreciably between plants. When we come to differences between industries we also find sharp differences. As is well-known, a depression affects the capital or durable goods industries far more severely than it does those producing non-durable consumers' goods. This is well shown by Table I on the relative numbers employed in various manufacturing industries in February 1933 as compared with the average from 1923-1925 as 100.