Recent declines in the number of breeding ducks in the Canadian prairie‐parklands have been hypothesized to be due to loss of habitat to agriculture. However, prairie‐parkland also has experienced wetland loss to drought as well as to agriculture. If habitat restoration is to be implemented and monitored successfully, it is important to separate the effects of anthropogenic changes to the landscape on duck populations from those caused by changes in climate. We used data from annual air–ground surveys and from precipitation records to develop relationships between indices of abundance of each of 10 species of ducks and indices of wetland conditions during 1955‐1974. We used these relationships to predict annual abundance of each species during 1975‐1989. We compared predicted and observed abundances over the period 1975‐1989 to distinguish declines in duck abundance greater than those accounted for by drought alone and to determine the magnitude and location of real "deficits" in duck abundance. Average annual deficits within Canadian prairie‐parkland over the period 1975‐1989 were estimated at 1.2 x 106 birds for both Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and Northern Pintail (A. acuta), 480 000 for Blue‐winged Teal (A. discors), 190 000 for American Wigeon (A. americana), 175 000 for Northern Shoveler (A. clypeata), 50 000 for Gadwall (A. strepera), 10 000 for Green‐winged Teal (A. crecca), 40 000 for Canvasback (Aythya valisineria), 25 000 for Lesser Scaup (A. affinis), and 5000 for Redhead (A. americana). Overall, the effect of agricultural expansion in the east on prime waterfowl habitat since 1951 appears to have been negligible. There, as much as 90% had been already lost prior to 1951. In the west, however, where prime waterfowl habitat was still relatively abundant in 1951, agricultural development has encroached substantially. The relationship between the lost area of the best breeding habitats and the size of population deficits for Mallards and Northern Pintails in the entire Canadian prairie‐parkland region was significant for both species (P < 0.0027 and P < 0.0001, respectively). Consequently, habitat restoration programs located where the highest quality waterfowl habitat and the lowest quality agricultural lands overlap most should have the greatest potential to affect recovery of breeding duck populations in the Canadian prairie‐parklands.
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