American National Election Studies Data Research Articles

Religious Roots of War Attitudes in the United States: Insights from Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Persian Gulf

Existing scholarship regarding the impact of faith on foreign policy public opinion is divided on whether religious factors have any direct influence that is independent of political predispositions. I address this debate by analyzing the effect of religious background on attitudes toward the conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Persian Gulf. Using American National Election Study data sets and a series of regression estimates, I find that the impact of religious factors—in terms of affiliation, attitudes on the Bible, and religious behavior—on perceptions toward each of the wars is rather indirect via political predispositions. The contribution of the piece lies in utilizing the Karlson, Holm, and Breen method to capture for the first time the exact scope of mediated effects for religious variables. In so doing, the study provides new insights on the patterns of interaction between religious and political factors shaping war-related attitudes.

The Hispanic Immigrant Voter and the Classic American Voter: Presidential Support in the 2012 Election

In their classic 1960 work, Angus Campbell and his colleagues offer a model to explain political behavior. They posit a funnel of causality, whereby the causal flow moved from remote long-term forces, such as socio-demographics and party identification, to more immediate short-term forces, such as issues and candidates, finally arriving at the vote choice itself. This explanation has withstood the test of time in studies of the United States and other democracies. The question at hand in this article is how Latin American immigrants comport themselves in the national political environment of the United States. Can the political preferences of Hispanic immigrants be explained pretty much the way the political preferences of native-born Americans can be explained? In other words, does the funnel of causality apply to them? Our findings, based on analysis of 2012 American National Election Study and Latino Immigrant National Election Study survey data, indicate that it does.

Economic Insecurity and Political Trust in the United States

Extant research demonstrates that citizens’ evaluations of national economic performance play an important role in determining trust in politicians and political institutions, whereas evaluations of their own economic situation play a lesser or even negligible role. Utilizing American National Election Studies data and more apposite measures of personal economic privation during an age of globalization and de-industrialization, this article finds that the extent to which citizens perceive themselves and their families to be economically insecure has a statistically significant and substantial negative effect on political trust. Indeed, the effect at least matches those of macro-economic evaluations and party identification. This article therefore adds a new dimension to our understanding of the economy–trust nexus and contributes to the small but growing body of scholarship on insecurity’s effects on political behavior.

An Empirical Justification for the Use of Draft Lottery Numbers as a Random Treatment in Political Science Research

Over the past several years, there has been growing use of the draft lottery instrument to study political attitudes and behaviors (see, e.g., Bergan 2009; Erikson and Stoker 2011; Henderson 2012; Davenport 2015). Draft lotteries, held in the United States from 1969 to 1972, provide a potentially powerful design; in theory, they should provide true randomization for the “treatment” of military service or behavioral reactions to the threat of such service. However, the first draft lottery conducted in 1969 was not conducted in a random manner, giving those citizens born in the fourth quarter of the year disproportionately higher chances of being drafted. In this note, we describe the randomization failure and discuss how this failure could in theory compromise the use of draft lottery numbers as an instrumental variable. We then use American National Election Studies data to provide support for the conclusion that individuals most affected by the randomization failure (those born in the fourth quarter of the year) largely do not look statistically distinct from those born at other times of the year. With some caveats, researchers should be able to treat the 1969 draft numbers as if they were assigned at random. We also discuss broader lessons to draw from this example, both for scholars interested in using the draft lottery as an instrumental variable, and for researchers leveraging other instruments with randomization failures. Specifically, we suggest that scholars should pay particular attention to the sources of randomization failure, sample attrition, treatment and dependent variable selection, and possible failure of the exclusion restriction, and we outline ways in which these problems may apply to the draft lottery instrument and other natural experiments.

Not All Empathy Is Equal: How Dispositional Empathy Affects Charitable Giving

Motivations for prosocial behavior have been explored in diverse ways. Empirical research suggests that empathy is an important motive for prosocial behavior. Building upon previous studies, in this article the authors hypothesize that charitable giving is distinctively affected by different components of dispositional empathy, including empathic concern, perspective taking, and personal distress. Using the 2008–2009 wave of American National Election Studies data set, this study examines the impact of these three components of dispositional empathy on probability and amount of giving to various charitable causes. The results support the authors’ hypotheses that the three components of dispositional empathy are associated with charitable giving in different ways. In particular, empathic concern consistently stimulates the likelihood and amount of giving. The effects of perspective taking and personal distress are mixed. The results offer several direct implications for fundraisers and nonprofit organizations in crafting effective fundraising appeals.

We trust in government, just not in yours: Race, partisanship, and political trust, 1958–2012

Although it is generally accepted that political trust is reflective of satisfaction with the performance of the incumbent administration, this is only considered true for White Americans. Because their trust reflects a larger discontent with the political system, Black Americans, it is held, do not respond in the same way in the short term. This argument has yet to be tested with over-time data. Time matters. Not only does the race gap in trust change over time but the impact of partisanship and political winning is, by definition, time-dependent. The results of an analysis of the 1958–2012 American National Election Studies data show that Black Americans and White Americans are equally likely to tie short-term performance to trust in government. However, the relationship between partisanship and political trust and, therefore, system discontent, clearly differs for the two groups. Aggregate models that do not take race-partisan sub-group differences into account will therefore be misleading.

From Black and White to Left and Right: Race, Perceptions of Candidates’ Ideologies, and Voting Behavior in U.S. House Elections

While there is a strong scholarly consensus that race continues to play a central role in American politics, research on the effects of the race of candidates on electoral behavior has produced decidedly mixed results. Using American National Election Studies data, Cooperative Congressional Election Studies data, and a non-linear systems of equations approach to estimation, I show that race-based misperceptions of candidates’ ideologies have a significant indirect impact on voting decisions in elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. The indirect effects of race on voting behavior outweigh any direct effects of racial prejudice by a substantial margin. More specifically, the results suggest that white citizens will tend to perceive black candidates to be more liberal than white candidates who adopt similar policy positions, and that these race-based misperceptions disadvantage black candidates at the ballot box.

Components of the Belief Gap

Knowledge gap research focuses on education as an indicator of socioeconomic status (SES). Belief gap research centers on ideology as potentially more powerful than education in comparing sociopolitical groups with scientifically established knowledge and groups with opposing beliefs accepted on faith. This study examined the relationship between education and ideology to understand belief gaps better. The study used 2008 American National Election Study (ANES) data to compare conservatives, moderates, and liberals by education on religiosity, child rearing values, opinionation, need for cognition, orientation toward politics, and mass media access and use. Although liberals tended to be more educated than conservatives overall, better-educated conservatives had the highest household incomes and were a much larger group. No known knowledge gap studies have reported results on one group characterized by high education and an opposing group distinguished by a different indicator of SES. Reformulations of the belief gap hypothesis are offered.

The Citizen as Issue Specialists in a Changing Media Environment

Although recent research suggests that the selective nature of new media helps foster issue specialists, little empirical evidence has been documented, mostly due to theoretical and methodological limitations. Extending the concept of issue publics, the present study proposes a method to estimate the degree to which an individual is a specialist- or a generalist-type citizen. Applying the method to the 2008 American National Election Studies data, the study reveals various characteristics of specialists and generalists. The results indicate that specialist-type citizens are positively associated with online news use, but negatively associated with conventional news media, such as television, newspaper, and radio. The implications of the growth of specialists as well as the validity of the proposed method are discussed.

Authoritarianism and American Political Behavior from 1952 to 2008

Using American National Election Studies (NES) data from 1952 to 2008—a longer timespan than any analysis to date—we evaluate the leading claims about growing polarization along authoritarian/nonauthoritarian lines and the reasons for that growth. We find authoritarianism’s impact has grown for partisanship and voting but has been consistent for policy attitudes—usually present for “social” and defense issues, but less so for social welfare and foreign policy. This suggests that authoritarianism’s importance is related to strategic politicians advancing issues that touch on the authoritarian/nonauthoritarian divide, and varies across election years.

The Displaying of Yard Signs as a Form of Political Participation

Despite the ubiquity of yard signs, little is known about how and why individuals display them. Using two original studies of the 2008 presidential race, along with American National Election Study data, we address three points pertaining to this understudied form of political participation. First, what are the correlates of the individuals and households that display signs? Second, what motivates such displays, and to what extent do those motives reflect expressive and communicative desires? Finally, how do individuals obtain signs, and do individuals—rather than parties or candidates—play a role in spreading signs throughout neighborhoods? Our findings suggest that the dissemination of yard signs is not merely a top–down process driven by campaign professionals, but a genuine participatory act that is fueled by individual initiative and social networking.

The (Dis)Connection Between Political Culture and External Efficacy

Theories of political culture have traditionally been based on how the mass public views the role of government, yet scholars have rarely studied this issue. Using American National Election Studies(ANES) data from 1952 to 2008, I track cultural changes in external efficacy, a measure of the public’s beliefs about government responsiveness. The aggregate- and individual-level results indicate that external efficacy varied across political cultures until around 1980, when the differences dissipated. These findings should cause scholars to question some of the underlying theoretical basis of political culture, as well as the measurement of external efficacy.

Class in Name Only

Partly because of the widespread tendency for Americans to think of themselves as “middle class,” subjective class identity often does not correspond to objective class position. This study evaluates the extent to which American voters' subjective class identities differ from their objective class positions. We then evaluate the implications of such differences for voting behavior using American National Election Studies data from eight recent presidential elections. Coding respondents according to whether subjective class identity is higher or lower than objective class position, we construct a novel schema of inflated, deflated, and concordant class perceptions. We find that there are substantial differences between Americans' subjective and objective social class: over two-thirds of the upper-middle class have a deflated perception of their class position, only half of the middle class have concordant perceptions, and more than a third of the working class have inflated perceptions. We also find that this divergence varies depending on sociodemographic factors, and especially race and education. The analyses initially show a pattern that those with inflated class perceptions are more likely to vote Republican. However, this relationship is not significant once we control for race and income.

Do Politicians Shape Public Opinion?

Most research on political representation focuses on how citizens’ ideology and partisanship influence their support for political candidates – leaving the question of whether (and how) elected officials influence citizens’ positions on political issues open to debate. The hypothesis tested here – using a unique, quasi-experimental design with American National Election Study data between 1956 and 2004 – is that Democratic representatives shift the opinions of constituents in the pro-Democratic and liberal direction, while Republican representatives shift constituents’ opinions in the pro-Republican and conservative direction. The findings show that incumbent representatives indeed move their constituents’ opinions in a particular direction, and that representatives have a stronger impact on constituents who are more frequently exposed to their messages.

The Rise of Uncivil Agreement

The debate over whether polarization is occurring in the mass public has been limited by a lack of definition and theory. This article contributes to both, arguing that polarization can be characterized as either behavioral polarization or issue position polarization, but that the two are not synonymous. One reason for the difference between the two types of polarization is that the partisan-ideological sorting that has occurred over the past few decades has contributed to behavioral polarization, but not as strongly to issue position polarization. The consequence of this is a new electorate that generally agrees on most issues but is nevertheless increasingly biased, active, and angry. An examination of American National Election Studies data from 1972 to 2004 finds strong support for these hypotheses.

Political Alienation: Behavioral Implications of Efficacy and Trust in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

This research centers on three dimensions of political alienation – internal efficacy, external efficacy, and political trust. Multivariate analysis of the demographic determinants of political efficacy and trust suggests that females, blacks, and latinos were more like to exhibit feelings of internal and external efficacy, but trust is significantly higher only among the well-educated and strong partisans. We then examined the behavioral implications of these attitudes on voter turnout and candidate preference in the 2008 presidential election. Logit analysis of the 2008-2009 American National Election Study data suggests that internal efficacy increases turnout while external efficacy and trust are insignificant. With regard to candidate preference, those individuals exhibiting internal and external efficacy were more likely to vote for Barack Obama, while trust was insignificant.

Love ‘Em or Hate ‘Em? Changing Racial and Regional Differences in Opinions Toward Southerners, 1964–2008*

ObjectiveWe determine whether Americans have reevaluated opinions toward southerners following the transformation of the region in the decades following the civil rights movement, focusing specifically on how opinions toward southerners vary across racial and regional groups.MethodsWe use both descriptive and multivariate methods to evaluate opinions toward southerners using American National Election Study (ANES) data from 1964 to 2008.ResultsOpinions toward southerners have increased dramatically over time. People living in the South display more positive feelings toward southerners than individuals residing outside the region, although the gap is much smaller today than in previous decades. In addition, southern blacks' opinions toward southerners have improved dramatically. These trends hold even when controlling for a host of other factors.ConclusionsBeing a southerner is no longer a pejorative in the minds of many Americans. Blacks, in particular, have reevaluated their opinions of southerners as a group.

The Emotional Citizen: Emotion as a Function of Political Sophistication

Scholars and popular commentators have often stereotyped emotion as a tool that citizens use to reason about politics in place of hard fact and critical thought. Indeed, critics have often seen emotion as a potentially dangerous force that can sway the unsophisticated masses to undesirable ends. This article challenges the view that emotion is an outgrowth of low sophistication, arguing that high sophisticates are more likely to experience emotion in reaction to politics and that emotions are more influential on the political behavior of high sophisticates. Drawing upon appraisal theory, this article develops a theory of how political engagement elicits emotionality about politics, and how emotion interacts with understanding and motivation to produce its greatest impact on the behavior of those citizens who are the most politically sophisticated. Behavioral effects are examined in the contexts of presidential voting behavior and Iraq War policy attitudes. Hypotheses are tested on pooled American National Election Studies (ANES) data and an original web‐based survey of undergraduates.

Knowledge, Ambivalence, and Congressional Approval

This paper explores which individuals are most susceptible to congressional approval. To this end, the paper is based on the information-processing logic of two moderators (knowledge and ambivalence) in the attitude change stages. Reception of validity-seeking messages is more likely to occur among individuals that possess a large store of political knowledge. However, in the acceptance stage, ambivalence mediates attitude change toward persuasive messages. These two moderators playa central role in a trade-off between two axioms (accuracy and efficiency) of decision-making in information processing. With the concept of the role of the two moderators in mind, I use the 2004 American National Election Studies data to examine four different groups' responses by combining two moderators (HKHA, HKLA, LKHA, and LKLA). The findings show that interpersonal heterogeneity is evident for four different groups. In particular, because they seek the contextual information and willingness to engage in cognitive differentiation as well as embrace central arguments in both parties' debate. publics with high knowledge and high ambivalence are less likely to rely on simple heuristic cues but more likely to depend on institution-specific criteria in evaluating congressional performance.

Masculine Republicans and Feminine Democrats: Gender and Americans’ Explicit and Implicit Images of the Political Parties

During the past three decades Americans have come to view the parties increasingly in gendered terms of masculinity and femininity. Utilizing three decades of American National Election Studies data and the results of a cognitive reaction-time experiment, this paper demonstrates empirically that these connections between party images and gender stereotypes have been forged at the explicit level of the traits that Americans associate with each party, and also at the implicit level of unconscious cognitive connections between gender and party stereotypes. These connections between the parties and masculinity and femininity have important implications for citizens’ political cognition and for the study of American political behavior.