American Meteorological Society Research Articles

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 5, May 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 5, May 2015

American Meteorological Society Scholarship/Fellowship Program Sponsors

American Meteorological Society Scholarship/Fellowship Program Sponsors

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 4, April 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 4, April 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 3, March 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 3, March 2015

The AMS DataStreme Earth's Climate System Teacher Professional Development Course: Results from a Three-Year Study

ABSTRACTThe DataStreme Earth's Climate System (DataStreme ECS) course implementation has been built on 20 years of American Meteorological Society (AMS) in-service K–12 teacher professional development experience, and is supported by educational research. Using the Targeting Outcomes of Programs model, DataStreme ECS was evaluated over a three-year, six-semester (spring 2011–fall 2013) study period through content and pedagogical focused pre- and posttests, a postcourse assessment, and an environmental literacy evaluation. During the NASA and NSF-supported study period the course prepared 1,027 teachers, via 25 Local Implementation Teams serving 35 states, to lead and assist their students and peers in understanding climate and global change issues. Notable evaluation results include an average 28% grade increase for teacher participants from pre- to posttest, as well as an average of 98% of participants reporting that their environmental literacy had increased (some or much) as a result of the course. There was a 99% completion rate for registered participants, demonstrating the value teachers placed on the course. Additionally, in a spring 2011 evaluation of peer-training workshops given by a specialized group of DataStreme ECS-trained teachers, 94% of attendees gave the highest possible response when assessing workshop content, and 98% recommended that the workshop be offered to others. DataStreme ECS can serve as a curriculum and instruction model for those designing long-duration teacher professional development courses to work with a network of educators and scientists to increase program reach and build public scientific literacy.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 2, February 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 2, February 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 1, January 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 1, January 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 12, December 2014

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 12, December 2014

Blue Hill Observatory Sunshine: Assessment of Climate Signals in the Longest Continuous Meteorological Record in North America

The Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory occupies a unique place in the history of the American Meteorological Society and the development of atmospheric science. Through its 129-yr history, the observatory has been operated by founder Abbott Lawrence Rotch (1861–1912), Harvard University, and the National Weather Service, and it is presently run by the nonprofit Blue Hill Observatory Science Center. While daily temperature and precipitation records are available through the National Climatic Data Center, they do not include the full record of sunshine duration data that were measured using a Campbell–Stokes sunshine recorder. We have recently digitized the observatory's original daily sunshine archives, and now present the first full collection and analysis of sunshine records extending from 1889 to the present. This dataset is unique and salient to modern climate research because the collection represents the earliest and longest continuous measurements of insolation outside of western Europe. This record provides an unprecedented glimpse into regional climate features as well as important links between global phenomena and regional climate. Analysis reveals long-term fluctuations of cloud cover and solar radiation, including signals of regional industrialization, global dimming, volcanic eruptions, and the 11-yr solar cycle. Shorter-period fluctuations include evidence of an intricate annual pattern of sunshine duration and correlations with the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and galactic cosmic rays.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 11, November 2014

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 11, November 2014

Solar energy prediction using linear and non-linear regularization models: A study on AMS (American Meteorological Society) 2013–14 Solar Energy Prediction Contest

In 2013, American Meteorological Society Committees on AI (artificial intelligence) Applications organized a short-term solar energy prediction competition aiming at predicting total daily solar energy received at 98 solar farms based on the outputs of various weather patterns of a numerical weather prediction model. In this paper, a methodology to solve this problem has been explained and the performance of ordinary LSR (least-square regression), regularized LSR and ANN (artificial neural network) models has been compared. In order to improve the generalization capability of the models, more experiments like variable segmentation, subspace feature sampling and ensembling of models have been conducted. It is observed that model accuracy can be improved by proper selection of input data segments. Further improvements can be obtained by ensemble of forecasts of different models. It is observed that the performance of an ensemble of ANN and LSR models is the best among all the proposed models in this work. As far as the competition is concerned, Gradient Boosting Regression Tree has turned out to be the best algorithm. The proposed ensemble of ANN and LSR model is able to show a relative improvement of 7.63% and 39.99% as compared to benchmark Spline Interpolation and Gaussian Mixture Model respectively.

How to deal with climate change

Climate change is a complex and contentious public issue, but the risk-management options available to us are straightforward and have well-characterized strengths and weaknesses.

Faster, Cheaper, and More Nimble: Improvements and Innovations in Publishing AMS Journals

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) is committed to continually improving the total author and reader experience associated with AMS journals. This article discusses improvements to the peer-review process, reduction in publication costs, streamlining of article production, incorporation of cutting-edge technologies, and other imminent improvements in AMS publications.

A Revised Tornado Definition and Changes in Tornado Taxonomy

Abstract The tornado taxonomy presented by Agee and Jones is revised to account for the new definition of a tornado provided by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in October 2013, resulting in the elimination of shear-driven vortices from the taxonomy, such as gustnadoes and vortices in the eyewall of hurricanes. Other relevant research findings since the initial issuance of the taxonomy are also considered and incorporated, where appropriate, to help improve the classification system. Multiple misoscale shear-driven vortices in a single tornado event, when resulting from an inertial instability, are also viewed to not meet the definition of a tornado.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 10, October 2014

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 10, October 2014

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 9, September 2014

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 9, September 2014

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 8, August 2014

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 8, August 2014

Paradox of Peak Flows in a Changing Climate

Paradox of Peak Flows in a Changing Climate

Meteorologists' Views About Global Warming: A Survey of American Meteorological Society Professional Members

Meteorologists and other atmospheric science experts are playing important roles in helping society respond to climate change. However, members of this professional community are not unanimous in their views of climate change, and there has been tension among members of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) who hold different views on the topic. In response, AMS created the Committee to Improve Climate Change Communication to explore and, to the extent possible, resolve these tensions. To support this committee, in January 2012 we surveyed all AMS members with known e-mail addresses, achieving a 26.3% response rate (n = 1,854). In this paper we tested four hypotheses—1) perceived conflict about global warming will be negatively associated, and 2) climate expertise, 3) liberal political ideology, and 4) perceived scientific consensus will be positively associated—with 1) higher personal certainty that global warming is happening, 2) viewing the global warming observed over the past 150 years as mostly ...

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 7, July 2014

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 7, July 2014