American Meteorological Society Research Articles

Accidental benzene release risk assessment in an urban area using an atmospheric dispersion model

This study applied the American Meteorological Society and Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) to assess the risk caused by an accidental release and dispersion of the toxic chemical benzene in the vicinity of a highly populated urban area. The modeling domain encompasses the Korean megacity of Ulsan, which includes two national industrial complexes and is characterized by a complex coastal terrain. Multiple AERMOD simulations were conducted for an assumed emission scenario using background wind data from August between 2009 and 2013. The series of experiments produced the spatial accident probability patterns for different concentration levels during daytime and nighttime scenarios based on the corresponding dominant wind patterns. This study further quantifies the potential accident risk based on the number of affected individuals by combining the accident probability with the indoor and outdoor population estimates. The chemical gas dispersion characteristics depend on various local meteorological conditions, such as the land-sea breeze direction, which alternates between daytime and nighttime, and the atmospheric stability. The results reveal that benzene dispersion affects a much larger area during the nighttime owing to the presence of a nocturnal stable boundary layer with significant temperature stratification. The affected area is smaller during the daytime owing to decreased stability and enhanced vertical mixing in the boundary layer. The results include a high degree of uncertainty during the nighttime owing to weak wind speeds and the lack of a prevailing wind direction, which impact the vulnerable area. However, vulnerable areas are more effectively identified during the daytime, when more consistent meteorological conditions exist. However, the potential risk becomes much lower during the nighttime owing to a substantial reduction of the outdoor population.

Increasing the Diversity of Your Graduate Program: Translating Best Practices into Success

Abstract Despite awareness in the geosciences that our field has a substantial lack of diversity in our workforce and student body, and countless efforts to broaden participation, graduate enrollment in the atmospheric sciences by students who are from traditionally underrepresented groups (i.e., African American, Hispanic, and American Indian students) is only slowly increasing, from 6% in 2005 to about 8.5% currently. In 2005, the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU) had a minority enrollment of 3.5%, which was lower than the national enrollment statistics of 6.0%. Through a concerted effort to better reflect the demographic makeup of the United States, the department now boasts a figure closer to 16%. Our students do cutting-edge research, participate in field campaigns, and are actively involved in professional societies, such as the American Meteorological Society (AMS). We expect that many of our students will become faculty or researchers and hopefully will mentor students themselves one day. Our article highlights the strategic initiative we have used to increase the diversity in atmospheric science, in hopes that our findings can present a model that can be replicated in other geoscience departments across the nation.

AERCOARE: An overwater meteorological preprocessor for AERMOD

ABSTRACTAERCOARE is a meteorological data preprocessor for the American Meteorological Society and U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Regulatory Model (AERMOD). AERCOARE includes algorithms developed during the Coupled-Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) to predict surface energy fluxes and stability from routine overwater measurements. The COARE algorithm is described and the implementation in AERCOARE is presented. Model performance for the combined AERCOARE-AERMOD modeling approach was evaluated against tracer measurements from four overwater field studies. Relatively better model performance was found when lateral turbulence measurements were available and when several key input variables to AERMOD were constrained. Namely, requiring the mixed layer height to be greater than 25 m and not allowing the Monin Obukhov length to be less than 5 m improved model performance in low wind speed stable conditions. Several options for low wind speed dispersion in AERMOD also affected the model performance results. Model performance for the combined AERCOARE-AERMOD modeling approach was found to be comparable to the current EPA regulatory Offshore Coastal Model (OCD) for the same tracer studies. AERCOARE-AERMOD predictions were also compared to simulations using the California Puff-Advection Model (CALPUFF) that also includes the COARE algorithm. Many model performance measures were found to be similar, but CALPUFF had significantly less scatter and better performance for one of the four field studies. For many offshore regulatory applications, the combined AERCOARE-AERMOD modeling approach was found to be a viable alternative to OCD the currently recommended model.Implications: A new meteorological preprocessor called AERCOARE was developed for offshore source dispersion modeling using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory model AERMOD. The combined AERCOARE-AERMOD modeling approach allows stakeholders to use the same dispersion model for both offshore and onshore applications. This approach could replace current regulatory practices involving two completely different modeling systems. As improvements and features are added to the dispersion model component, AERMOD, such techniques can now also be applied to offshore air quality permitting.

In Memoriam: Edgar L. Andreas, 1946-2015

On a day early last autumn, Ed Andreas went out, as was his wont, for a run from his home in Lebanon, New Hampshire. While on this run, Ed, a contributor to this volume and a collaborator and friend of many of us in the air-sea exchange community, suffered a cardiac event, from which he succumbed on 30 September 2015.Mention of Ed Andreas will immediately bring to many readers’ minds his protracted effort to incrementally improve the existing parameterizations of the sea surface spray flux (e.g., Andreas et al. 1995; Andreas 1998; Andreas 2001; Andreas et al. 2015) and his recent efforts to combine this modeling with concepts from atmospheric chemistry to assess the potential significance of spray-mediated air-sea gas flux (Andreas et al., this volume). Since 2007 Ed worked on these topics from his home, which served as his outpost of NorthWest Research Associates. But it should be noted that many of his earlier papers dealt with the Arctic marine boundary layer, and sea-air fluxes at high latitudes (e.g., Andreas et al. 1979; Makshtas et al. 1986), reflecting his almost 30-year long tenure (1978-2006) at the U.S. Army's Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, located just down the road from Lebanon, in Hanover, New Hampshire.Having been born in Sterling, Illinois, Ed went off to nearby Knox College for his B.S. in Physics, and then on to Michigan State University for an M.S. in Physics, before deserting the Midwest for Corvallis, where he earned his Ph.D. in Physical Oceanography at Oregon State University in 1977. While Ed certainly became an active member of our global scientific community, he never lost his Midwestern virtues. He could write well, and received numerous awards for his technical communication, but he was often refreshingly candid in speech. Ed would on occasion provide honest “unvarnished” critiques of his and his collaborators’ efforts, but he did not hesitate to praise others’ efforts in print. Ed was a principled person, and this was manifest in his professional dealings with others. Working on a manuscript with Ed was always, as it should be, an ultimately enlightening intellectual exercise.His approach to any task combined both the rigor of the physicist with the practicality of an engineer, and as a result of his efficient nature, he has left our air-sea interaction community with a trove of no less than 140 valuable scientific publications, with others yet to appear.Ed Andreas was a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society and of the Royal Meteorological Society (UK). He was recipient of the Antarctica Service Medal, and of numerous performance awards from the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory.This brief tribute just touches upon Ed Andreas as a scientist. But Ed was a truly multi-faceted individual, as is apparent to any reader of the posthumous biographical sketch that appeared in his local newspaper (Jurgens 2015), which you may want to access. We would like to acknowledge with gratitude the biographical materials we received from Ed's immediate family, and from his former associates at NorthWest Research Associates, Inc. in Redmond, Washington.

Applying Spatial Analysis Tools in Public Health: The Use of AERMOD in Modeling the Emission Dispersion of SO2 and NO2 to Identify Exposed Area to Health Risks

Background: The cement industry is one of the main contributors of pollutant gasses in the environment through stack emissions.Aim: This study aims to model the dispersion of SO2 and NO2 gasses and to determine the area of the dispersion by American Meteorological Society – Environmental Protection Agency Regulation Model or AERMOD has been utilized by PT. Semen Tonasa (Tonasa Cement, Ltd.).Methods: Meteorological data from AERMENT was collected from reanalysis of MM5 data. While topographical data was extracted from SRTM30 satellite data. The model was carried out for a year, to cover both the dry and rainy season.Results: The result of the modeling showed that the peak value of the concentration of SO2 and NO2 pollutants for one hour are 135 μg/m3 and 160 μg/m3 respectively (quality standards of SO2 and NO2 are 900 μg/Nm3 and 400 μg/Nm3). The area of dispersion tends to be in the eastern area, such as District Minasatene (Sub-district Bontoa, Kalabbirang, Minasatene dan Biraeng), District Bungoro (Sub-district Biringere, Sapanang, Mangilu, Bulu Tellue) and District Labakkang (Sub-district Taraweang). Key words: Spatial analysis, AERMOD, AERMOD, cement factory, exposed area, SO2 and NO2

Human health risks of post- and oxy-fuel combustion carbon dioxide capture technologies: Hypothetically modeled scenarios

Carbon dioxide (CO2) capture technology has become an available technology for ensuring reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel based electricity generating plants. Since public acceptance of this technology depends critically on a reliable demonstration of its safety, it is important that the risks associated with carbon capture technology be fully understood so that standards and regulatory frameworks required for its deployment can be formulated.The objective of this paper is to evaluate the predicted risk to human health associated with the Boundary Dam Power Station (BDPS) close to Estevan, Saskatchewan, Canada. This study aims to predict the potential instead of actual risks to human health because real data from the power plants’ stacks are unavailable. Instead, the study relies on data that were entirely derived from the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies (Koiwanit et al., 2014a,b; Manuilova, 2011). The risk assessment was conducted based on two tools: (i) the American Meteorological Society's Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD), and (ii) Health Canada's Air Quality Benefits Assessment Tool (AQBAT). The conventional lignite-fired electricity generation station at the BDPS is used as a reference case. This work presents the predicted risks to human health due to exposure to air pollution which has been released by the post-combustion carbon dioxide capture process, and compare the risks with those posed by the oxy-fuel CO2 capture technology.Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulates less than 2.5μm in diameter (PM2.5), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions were modeled in a circular pattern of 10 degree increments with 25 zones of 100m on each increment. This study demonstrates that the reductions in the atmospheric concentrations of NO2, PM2.5, and SO2 accounted for the largest improvements in human health impacts, particularly in terms of acute respiratory, asthma symptoms, and restricted activity health outcomes. In addition, the oxy-fuel CO2 capture system reduced emissions to the atmosphere more effectively than the post-combustion CO2 capture technology. Therefore, the former technology's contribution to reducing air pollution is more significant than that of the latter.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 12, December 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 12, December 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 11, November 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 11, November 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 10, October 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 10, October 2015

Estimation of Assimilative Capacity of the Airshed in Iron Ore Mining Region of Goa

The assimilative potential of the atmosphere entails the capacity of the atmosphere to accept and dissipate the pollutant discharge without exceeding the standard limits. The evaluation of assimilative potential is important because it is a useful tool for the area-based management of air pollution and to mitigate the pollution level. The assimilative potential of the atmosphere can be represented in two ways: one as the ventilation coefficient and the other as the dispersion potential of emission loads discharged into the region. The ventilation coefficient is directly proportional to the assimilation potential of the atmosphere and can be computed using meteorological parameters. In the second approach, the assimilative capacity can be estimated in terms of permissible emission load that is the difference between the permissible and the existing pollutant concentration levels. The existing concentration levels can either be monitored or predicted using an appropriate dispersion model. For this study the assimilated potential of the atmosphere was estimated in terms of potential pollution load by comparing the predicted concentration of PM10 at 14 discrete receptor points using the American Meteorological Society EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD) dispersion model. The investigation clearly inferred that, the area under consideration has a fair assimilative capacity.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 9, September 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 9, September 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 8, August 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 8, August 2015

Facilitating the Use of Drought Early Warning Information through Interactions with Agricultural Stakeholders

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | JULY 2015| 1073 PB Extreme drought events across the United States in recent years have led to large societal impacts and contributed to lower agricultural productivity in major farming and ranching areas of the country. The total cost associated with these events has been high, with the 2012 drought alone costing more than $35 billion, making it one of the most expensive natural disasters in U.S. history. Because droughts impact more people than any other type of natural disaster, robust drought early warning systems that effectively characterize and disseminate information to vulnerable stakeholders are necessary to assist drought mitigation and climate adaptation efforts. A prime example is the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), which has a defined goal of creating a drought early warning system that provides probabilistic forecasts with sufficient spatial Facilitating the Use of Drought Early Warning Information through Interactions with Agricultural Stakeholders

Cooperation on GPS Meteorology between the United States and Cuba

Abstract In May 2014 a team of atmospheric and geodetic scientists from UNAVCO and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) sent and helped set up a global positioning system (GPS) receiver to measure atmospheric water vapor at the Grupo de Óptica Atmosférica de Camagüey (GOAC) at the Camagüey Meteorological Center in Camagüey, Cuba. The GPS receiver immediately began to produce observations of precipitable water, which are being shared with the international meteorological community. Obtaining permission from both sides to send a highly sensitive instrument from the United States to Cuba was not easy. This paper describes the series of events that led to this achievement, beginning with a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) workshop in Rome, Italy, in 1994 in which Alan Robock met a young Cuban scientist named Juan Carlos Antuña and accepted him as a graduate student at the University of Maryland, College Park. The GPS meteorology connection began with a March 2007 visit of a delegation from the United States headed by then American Meteorological Society (AMS) President Richard Anthes to Havana, Cuba, at the invitation of the Cuban Meteorological Society president, Andrés Planas. These two threads led to this remarkable cooperation between Cuban and U.S. scientists. Several visits to Cuba beginning in 2010 by Robock, who met former President of Cuba Fidel Castro and the science advisor to the president of Cuba, played a significant role. This is another instance (the visit of the AMS delegation to China in 1974 was a prime example) of how communication and visits between meteorologists in countries that are at odds on many other issues can lead to lasting collaborations that benefit both countries as well as the international community.

Communicating Space Weather to the Public

During the 95th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting in Phoenix, Arizona, the Space Weather Conference convened a special session on improving communication related to space weather events and impacts. Space weather sounds frightening to the public; thus, it can be a communication challenge for space weather enthusiasts and professionals in the field [e.g., Vanlommel et al., 2014]. Casual use of words such as “coronal mass ejections-CMEs” and “geomagnetic storms” could unnecessarily alarm the public.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 7, July 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 7, July 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 6, June 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 6, June 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 5, May 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 5, May 2015

American Meteorological Society Scholarship/Fellowship Program Sponsors

American Meteorological Society Scholarship/Fellowship Program Sponsors

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 4, April 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 96, Number 4, April 2015