US Economy Research Articles

School-based intervention for anxiety using group cognitive behavior therapy in Pakistan: a feasibility randomized controlled trial

BackgroundAnxiety and mood disorders are the main cause of illness in people under the age of 25, accounting for 45% of the global disease burden, whereas 4.6% of teenagers aged 15 to 19 are predicted to experience anxiety. Pakistan country, with a population of 200 million, has the worst mental health indicators and fewer than 500 psychiatrists. Despite the existence of various treatments for anxiety, this goes unrecognized and untreated. Due to a lack of awareness, evaluation, prevention, and interventional programs related to being implemented among adolescents in Pakistan, there is a rise in mental health issues in the earlier years of life. It calls for a critical need for indigenous, evidence-based interventions. The present study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT)-based interventions to reduce anxiety symptoms among school children in Pakistan.MethodsThis study was a pre-post design, two-arm, single-blinded, feasibility, randomized controlled trial. Thirty-four participants (experimental group, n = 17; control group, n = 17) were recruited from four semi-government schools in Rawalpindi with a mean age of 15 (M = 15, SD = 0.73). Two instruments Beck Anxiety Inventory for Youth (BAI-Y II) and BASC-3 Behavioural and Emotional Screening System Student (BESS-SF) were used to assess the severity of symptoms. Participants in the intervention arm received eight-group therapy CBT sessions. A two-way factorial analysis was used to examine the efficacy of CBT in reducing symptom severity.ResultsThis study’s findings showed that in comparison to the wait-list control group, CBT successfully improved anxiety symptoms among school children while enhancing their social skills.ConclusionThis study will help improve the treatment for anxiety in Pakistan by prioritizing school-based intervention and group-based CBT intervention.Trial registrationThe trial has been registered at the American Economic Association’s registry for randomized controlled trials. RCT ID: AEARCTR-0009551. Registered 2022–07-04.

Carbon Taxes and CO2 Emissions: A Replication of Andersson (American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2019)

Abstract Do carbon taxes reduce CO2 emissions in the countries that adopt it? Andersson (2019. Carbon taxes and CO2 emissions: Sweden as a case study. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11(4), 1–30) provides a clear, affirmative answer. His article has been widely cited as evidence that carbon taxes “work.” To check whether the estimates from Andersson (2019) are reliable, I replicate his article using its publicly available data and codes. I modify his synthetic control method (SCM) by using a more restricted set of control units (excluding one potentially treated unit). I also use a more efficient methodology, the Prais-Winsten estimator, to estimate price effects on gasoline consumption. In addition, I compute prediction intervals (PIs) and add these to the SCM estimates, using the newly developed scpi R package. My best estimate is that carbon taxes reduced per-capita CO2 emissions in Sweden’s transport sector by 7.7%, confirming Andersson’s main finding. I then extend Andersson’s approach to the Norwegian transport sector, estimating a smaller reduction of 2.4%. However, this effect falls within the PIs of the estimates assuming no carbon taxes. When I extend the analysis to the national level in Sweden, I estimate wide PIs and obtain inconclusive results.

Comparative analysis of student evaluations: Exploring the effects of course modality and type in graduate business courses

This study compares student evaluations across face-to-face and online modalities, as well as qualitative versus quantitative courses, in a large sample of graduate-level courses from 2008 to 2023 at a US business school. The findings reveal significantly lower course and instructor evaluation ratings despite similar class performance in online modality. Quantitative courses received notably lower satisfaction ratings than qualitative courses. Importantly, when accounting for modality and course type, grades do not influence student evaluations. Maintaining fair comparisons by restricting evaluations solely to the same modality and course type is crucial for assessing college professors’ teaching quality through student evaluation ratings.

Low prevalence of testing for apolipoprotein B and lipoprotein (a) in the real world

ObjectiveApolipoprotein B (ApoB) and lipoprotein (a) (Lp[a]) are predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk; therefore, current recommendations for CVD risk assessment and management advocate that patients receive testing for ApoB and Lp(a) in addition to the standard lipid panel. However, US guidelines around ApoB and Lp(a) testing have evolved over time and vary slightly by expert committee. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the number of insured individuals in the USA who received any component of a lipid test, or ApoB and/or Lp(a) testing, during 2019. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional analysis to estimate the prevalence of any component of a lipid test, ApoB, and/or Lp(a) in the USA using four different claim data sources (including Medicaid, Medicare, and commercially insured enrollees). Prevalence estimates were age-, sex-, payor-, and region-standardized to the 2019 US Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey. We also described the clinical profile of patients who received lipid testing between 2019 and 2021 (cohort analysis) in Optum claims database. Enrollees were grouped into four non-mutually exclusive cohorts based on their completion of any component of the lipid panel, ApoB, Lp(a), or ApoB and Lp(a). ResultsIn the prevalence cohort, over a third (38 %) of insured adults in the USA underwent testing for any component of a lipid panel in 2019. This proportion was higher for individuals aged ≥65 years compared to younger adults (62% vs 31 %). The proportion of ApoB and Lp(a) testing represented only <1 % of testing for any component of a lipid panel. In the cohort analysis, we found that lipid testing increased with age and comorbidities. ConclusionThese data should be considered by guideline-issuing agencies and organizations to develop education campaigns encouraging more frequent use of tests beyond the standard lipid panel.

Exploration of the Reasons for the Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Hike in 2022 and Evaluation of Policy Effectiveness

After the global economy experienced the impact of the new crown epidemic, the US economy recovered in 2022, but inflation rose rapidly, prompting the Federal Reserve (FED) to take interest rate hikes. This paper analyzes the background and reasons for the Fed’s interest rate hike in 2022, and evaluates its policy effect, aiming to provide experience and lessons for future monetary policymaking. The main findings include: that the interest rate hike significantly reduced the inflation rate in the United States, from 8.0% in the first quarter to 5.67% in the fourth quarter; In the short term, interest rate hikes will hinder the economy, but in the long term, they will help promote stable growth; The interest rate hike led to stock market fluctuations and bond market yields rising, the credit market tightening, and increased the instability of the global financial market; Urge other countries to adjust their monetary policies and increase global economic uncertainty. The significance of this paper is to expand the theory of international financial and monetary policy and provide comparative research value for the policy-making of emerging market countries and developing countries. The policy recommendations include: the United States should strengthen policy transparency and financial supervision to promote the optimization of economic structure; Other countries should strengthen macro policy coordination, improve financial regulatory capacity, achieve economic diversification, maintain monetary policy flexibility, and promote the healthy development of cross-border capital flows.

Gender gap in consumer expectations

ABSTRACT This paper provides empirical evidence of the persistence of gender gaps in consumer expectations regarding personal finances and the national economy’s performance. Using individual-level data from two independent but comparable consumer attitude surveys – one nationally representative of the US and the other statewide representative of Florida – it demonstrates that women are significantly less likely than men to hold optimistic expectations about their personal financial situation and US business conditions over the next year and the next 5 years. These gender expectation gaps, ranging from 5% to 8.5% points, remain highly significant even after controlling for respondents’ socio-demographic characteristics, as well as survey-month and geographic location (including zip code) fixed effects. Furthermore, these gaps are prevalent in both surveys and have been present for more than four decades. Although persistent over time, these gender differences tend to narrow during periods of economic hardship and widen during economic expansions.

Diet affordability: a key dimension in the assessment of sustainable food systems and healthy diets.

A promulgated global shift toward a plant-based diet is largely in response to a perceived negative environmental impact of animal food production, but the nutritional adequacy and economic implications of plant-sourced sustainable healthy dietary patterns need to be considered. This paper reviews recent modeling studies using Linear Programming to determine the respective roles of animal- and plant-sourced foods in developing a least-cost diet in the United States and New Zealand. In both economies, least-cost diets were found to include animal-based foods, such as milk, eggs, fish, and seafood, to meet the energy and nutrient requirements of healthy adults at the lowest retail cost. To model a solely plant-based least-cost diet, the prevailing costs of all animal-sourced foods had to be increased by 1.1 to 11.5 times their original retail prices. This led to the inclusion of fortified plant-based foods, such as fortified soymilk, and a plant-based diet that was considerably (34-45%) more costly. The first-limiting essential nutrients were mostly the vitamins and minerals, with special focus on pantothenic acid, zinc, and vitamin B-12, when transitioning from an animal- and plant-containing least-cost diet to a plant-only based least-cost diet. Modeled least-cost diets based on contemporary food costs include animal-sourced foods, at least for developed high-income US and NZ food economies, and potentially for developing low- and middle-income countries, such as Indonesia. Modeling of least-cost diets that consist exclusively of plant-based foods is feasible, but at a higher daily diet cost, and these diets are often close to limiting for several key nutrients. Diet affordability, as a key dimension of sustainable healthy diets, and the respective economic roles of animal- and plant-sourced foods need to be considered.

Electrochemical Ammonia Recovery from Manure Wastewater Integrated with Electrochemical Carbon Dioxide Reduction

There were 40 million cows in the US in 2020 which provide necessary protein-rich food and are integral to the US economy. However, . Currently manure is managed simply by storing and spreading to nearby cropland as a fertilizer to reuse nutrients. Given the high water content and low nutrient concentration of manure, effective approaches to recover nutrients from manure wastewater and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are needed. Our group has recently developed ammonia (potassium) recovery from manure wastewater and co-production of chemicals using nutrient-selective redox material1. I will report my progress toward developing a new electrochemical strategy to achieve integrated ammonium (and potassium) nutrient recovery from manure wastewater and simultaneous biogas upgrading by electrochemically reducing carbon dioxide to formate and other locally useful products. This project will effectively mitigate CO2 emissions in traditional manure processing and provide a sustainable strategy for resource recovery, distributed electrosynthesis of fertilizers and other value-added chemicals, paving the way to carbon-neutral agriculture. Wang, R., Yang, K., Wong, C. et al. Electrochemical ammonia recovery and co-production of chemicals from manure wastewater. Nat Sustain (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01252-z

Operational Planning and Design Considerations for Underground Logistics Transportation in Texas

The logistics transportation system is critical to the United States economy. Underground Logistics Transportation (ULT) is a class of automated transportation systems in which vehicles carry freight through pipelines and tunnels between terminals. Being able to use a part of the underground space of existing highways will greatly facilitate the construction of such pipelines and tunnels and reduce their construction costs. Underground Logistics Transportation (ULT) could be the answer to make freight transport more sustainable and competitive. Texas highways and railroads are expected to increase by nearly 207% from 2003 to 2030. Truck tonnage will grow by 251%, while rail tonnage is forecasted to increase 118%. The number of trucks carrying NAFTA goods will increase by 263%, and the number of rail units will grow by 195%. This will have a profound impact on the highway and rail systems. The objective of this paper is to present requirements and operational components for three types of ULT lines: standard shipping containers, a standard crate size, and a standard pallet size. This study examines the use of ULT as a mode of underground transportation with the help of three case studies. This research shows that ULT is financially viable, feasible, greener, cost effective, and can become an important part of intermodal freight mobility.

Energy dynamics affecting the US economy; natural energy investments, carbon emissions, production, exports and GDP per Capita.

This study investigates how carbon dioxide emissions, natural gas, energy consumption, energy investment, coal and crude oil, and per capita exports affected the economic growth of the United States from 1993 to 2023 using the Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. The findings highlight the importance of exports and energy investment in driving both short- and long-term economic growth, while also highlighting interactions between carbon emissions, coal use and crude oil. It was determined that changes in natural gas and exports affected energy investment in the short term, while coal and exports affected natural gas. These results provide valuable information about the dynamics of the American economy and contribute to our understanding of the complex interactions between various factors and their effects on economic growth, offering implications for further research and policy development to promote sustainable economic development.

Artificial Intelligence as a Catalyst for US Economic Growth: Strategies and Policy Insights

Artificial Intelligence as a Catalyst for US Economic Growth: Strategies and Policy Insights

Household assets and business cycle fluctuations

AbstractThis paper shows that an increase in the ratio of household assets to gross domestic product (GDP) predicts higher GDP growth in the short term, but lower growth in the long term. It is also associated with lower consumption, investment, and employment rates in the future. The result is robust to controlling for various economic indicators including credit spreads, household debt to GDP ratio, and leverage ratio. Finally, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that an increase in the interest rate is associated with a decrease in the household assets to GDP ratio, in contrast to the findings of Galí and Gambetti (2015, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 233–257). This appears to support the conventional view of monetary policy.

IFCI-SA: International financial conditions index for South American economies

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, triggered a wave of risk aversion in the global financial markets. In contrast to previous events, South American emerging economies experienced limited impact to this more restrictive global financial environment. To measure the financial conditions of these economies over time, we propose an International Financial Conditions Index for South American economies (IFCI-SA), built from a parametric factor model. This index includes standard variables provided by the literature, along with sovereign debt risk premia and the most relevant commodity prices for the region. We use our model and index to: (i) discuss South American financial conditions from 2007 to 2024; (ii) explain the impact of a particular global event like the Russo-Ukrainian war; (iii) decompose risk premia movements into global and domestic shocks; and (iv) test its forecasting capabilities.

The Making of Informational Efficiency: Information Policy and Theory in Interwar Agricultural Economics

This article offers a historical analysis of American interwar agricultural economists and their interest in information. Believing that the main problem facing farmers was a lack of information, agricultural economists designed an information policy aiming to produce, format, and disseminate information. Using administrative archives, the article analyzes the motivations of these economists and the implementation of this policy. As the article shows, the policy was a prerequisite for theoretical discussions about information, and it established institutional tools that are still used today, such as the USDA market news service.

Reproduce to validate: A comprehensive study on the reproducibility of economics research

AbstractJournals have pushed for transparency of research through data availability policies. Such data policies improve availability of data and code, but what is the impact on reproducibility? We present results from a large reproduction exercise for articles published in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, which has had a data availability policy since its inception in 2009. Out of 363 published articles, we assessed 274 articles. All articles provided some materials. We excluded 122 articles that required confidential or proprietary data or that required the replicator to otherwise obtain the data (44.5% of assessed articles). We attempted to reproduce 152 articles and were able to fully reproduce the results of 68 (44.7% of attempted reproductions). A further 66 (43.4% of attempted reproductions) were partially reproduced. Many articles required complex code changes even when at least partially reproduced. We collect bibliometric characteristics of authors, but find no evidence for author characteristics as determinants of reproducibility. There does not appear to be a citation bonus for reproducibility. The data availability policy of this journal was effective to ensure availability of materials, but is insufficient to ensure reproduction without additional work by replicators.

Forecasting US GDP growth rates in a rich environment of macroeconomic data

Forecasting GDP growth rates is a formidable challenge, compounded by the inherent volatility, the complexity of the economic landscape, and the presence of a multitude of economic indicators at varying data frequencies. This study employs the MIDAS-LASSO model, which represents a penalized approach designed for mixed-frequency data, to forecast US GDP growth rates, while considering a vast array of macroeconomic indicators, including the Macroeconomic Attention Index (MAI) of Fisher et al. (2022). The empirical analysis demonstrates that both macroeconomic indicators and MAI exhibit considerable power for forecasting US GDP growth rates. The MIDAS-LASSO model outperforms its competitors in terms of forecasting efficacy, particularly in scenarios involving a plethora of predictors. Further analysis scrutinizes the model's efficacy across business cycles and during significant economic downturns, and the pathways through which macroeconomic risks influence US GDP growth rates. These insights offer valuable contributions to the field of economic forecasting and present novel avenues for policymakers and analysts.

American Economic Statecraft in the Era of Global Conflicts

American Economic Statecraft in the Era of Global Conflicts

The impact of natural disasters on US business credit markets: a comparative analysis of short-term and long-duration events

The impact of natural disasters on US business credit markets: a comparative analysis of short-term and long-duration events

Exchange Market Pressure, Government Debt, US Money Supply, GDP Growth and Maritime Trade: An Empirical Evidence from India

Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) indices are used as comprehensive indicators of pressure on a currency. This paper examines the relationship of India government debt, India’s GDP, world money supply and world GDP with exchange market pressure in India. We use quarterly data from 1992: II to 2018: III. The results suggest a significant positive relationship between EMP and the India government debt and GDP and a negative relationship between EMP and world money supply. The relationship between EMP and world GDP is found to be insignificant. This study sheds light on the complex dynamics of EMP and its determinants in India, highlighting the impact of key economic factors and historical events on currency stability. These findings have important implications for policymakers and stakeholders in maritime trade, providing insights into the economic factors influencing currency stability in maritime trade.

The US Economy as a Network: A Comparison across Economic and Environmental Metrics

Environmental-economic analysis is an evolving field that seeks to situate the human economy within environmental systems through its consumption of environmental resources and cycling of resources and waste products back into the environment. Environmental accounting has seen increased focus in recent years as national and regional governments look to better track environmental flows to aid in policy development and evaluation. This study outlines a conceptual environmental-economic framework founded on network science principles. An empirical study operationalizes portions of the framework and highlights the need for further research in this area to develop new data sources and analytic methods. We demonstrate a spatial mismatch between the location of water-intensive industries and the natural location of water resources (i.e., lakes, rivers, and precipitation), which climate change is likely to exacerbate. We use eigenvector centrality to measure differences in the US economy according to economic trade flow and five associated environmental flow accounts (land use, water consumption, energy use, mineral metal use, and greenhouse gas production). Population normalization helps to identify low-population counties that play a central role in the environmental-economic system as a function of their natural resources.