American National Election Studies Research Articles

The Hillary Hypotheses: Testing Candidate Views of Loss

The surprising election of Donald Trump to the presidency calls for a comprehensive assessment of what motivated voters to opt for a controversial political novice rather than a provocative but experienced political veteran. Our study provides a novel exploration of the Trump victory through the prism of the defeated candidate—Hillary Rodham Clinton (HRC). Losing candidates’ perceptions are usually not subject to academic analyses. Nevertheless, these people often hold substantial sway in their parties and thus understanding their views on the loss is essential, especially as a party regroups after defeat. Using HRC’s memoir What Happened, we devise the Hillary Hypotheses, her rationale for her electoral defeat. Using the 2016 American National Election Study (ANES), we provide the first systematic test of a losing candidate’s rationale for their defeat. We show that more often than not, HRC’s assumptions are supported. However, we find little evidence to support HRC’s most crucial assertion, namely that the e-mail scandal and specifically James Comey’s intervention ten days before Election Day cost her the presidency. Our findings have implications for understanding why Donald Trump won, but more broadly the contribution explores an understudied aspect of elections—a defeated candidate’s impression of their loss.

Why We Love Michelle: Understanding Public Support for First Lady Michelle Obama

After eight years as the first lady of the United States, Michelle Obama left the White House beloved in the eyes of many Americans. Being well liked by Americans is not in and of itself an unusual phenomenon for first ladies. What is remarkable about the love so many Americans expressed toward First Lady Michelle Obama is that she was able to maintain high favorable evaluations through a period of political, social, and electoral acrimony that made high approval ratings for national political figures increasingly unlikely. By drawing on a wealth of aggregate data drawn from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research archives and individual-level public opinion data drawn from the 2012 American National Election Studies survey as well as original survey data, this article identifies several important forces behind Michelle Obama's popularity.

How conspiracy theories can stimulate political engagement

ABSTRACT Although a growing body of studies has explored the antecedents of people’s adoption of conspiracy beliefs, the behavioral consequences of conspiracy theories – particularly regarding political engagement – have been less explored. Research has looked at conspiracy beliefs, exposure to specific conspiracy theories, conspiracy thinking, and the communication of conspiracy theories as predictor variables. To date, the findings are mixed due to conceptual differences and the selection of predictors with different functions and aspects. I offer new evidence. First, I explore whether conspiracy beliefs translate into political engagement. Having analyzed the 2012 American National Election Study, I find a positive association between conspiracy beliefs and political activities. Second, by manipulating exposure to a nascent conspiracy theory that emerged during the 2016 presidential primary elections, I examine whether exposure to conspiracy theories drives intention to engage in politics. Across two original survey experiments, the results indicate that conspiracy theories may lead to positive action, encouraging people to get involved in politics. The findings demonstrate that the spread of conspiracy theories is not uniformly detrimental to society. These findings also help to explain why elites within losing political organizations are more likely to spread conspiracy theories: they are a means for mobilizing disenfranchised citizens.

Secular Partisan Realignment in the United States: The Socioeconomic Reconfiguration of White Partisan Support since the New Deal Era

White American voters have realigned among the two dominant parties by income and education levels. This article argues that the interaction of education and income provides a more insightful—and stark—display of this change than treating them individually. Each group of voters is associated with distinctive “first dimension” views of economic redistribution and “second dimension” preferences concerning salient sociopolitical issues of civic and cultural liberties, race, and immigration. Macro-level hypotheses are developed about the changing voting behavior of education-income voting groups along with micro-level hypotheses about the propensity of vote switching. The hypotheses are tested with data from the American National Election Studies 1952–2016. A profound realignment is revealed between (groups of) white voters and the two main US parties that is consistent with the theoretical expectations developed in the article.

A Matter of Principle? On the Relationship Between Racial Resentment and Ideology

Though most scholars of race and politics agree that old-fashioned racism largely gave way to a new symbolic form of racism over the course of the last half century, there is still disagreement about how to best empirically capture this new form of racism. Racial resentment, perhaps the most popular operationalization of symbolic racism, has been criticized for its overlap with liberal-conservative ideology. Critics argue that racially prejudiced responses to the items that compose the racial resentment scale are observationally equivalent to the responses that conservatives would provide. In this manuscript, I examine the racial resentment scale for differential item functioning (DIF) by level of adherence to ideological principles using the 1992, 2004, and 2016 American National Election Studies. I find that responses to some of the racial resentment items are, indeed, affected by ideology. However, the problem is largely confined to 2016 and more egregious with respect to ideological self-identifications than adherence to ideological principles. Moreover, even after correcting for DIF, the racial resentment scale serves as a strong predictor of attitudes about racial issues.

Intersectionality in Action: Gun Ownership and Women's Political Participation

ObjectiveWe hypothesize that gun ownership among women is an important determinant of political engagement.MethodsFirst, using 2013 Pew Research Center data, we examine different types of political participation concerning gun policy. Next, we examine data from a survey experiment embedded in a unique June 2017 national survey of nearly 900 gun owners. Finally, we analyze 2016 American National Election Studies data of behavioral and cognitive forms of political participation.ResultsGun‐owning women exhibit levels of political participation about gun policy and a greater willingness to engage in political discussions about gun control than nonowning women. We also find greater levels of political engagement among gun‐owning women on measures of participation not related to gun policy.ConclusionWe discuss the implications of our findings for research on political participation as well as for gun policy.

Authoritarianism and support for Trump in the 2016 presidential election

The emergence of authoritarianism as a core political value has been emphasized by recent scholarship on the political behavior of the American electorate. This paper adds to this literature by examining the effect of authoritarianism in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Given the campaign style of Trump and the issues that he made salient in his campaign, it is hypothesized that authoritarianism should have a substantial effect on vote choice of whites. Using data from the American National Election Studies (ANES), logistic regression models of presidential vote choice of white respondents are estimated to ascertain the effect of authoritarianism in presidential elections from 1992 to 2016, controlling for party identification, ideology and several standard demographic control variables. Findings indicate that authoritarianism had the largest effect on white vote choice in 2016 than in any prior election that was analyzed. The candidacy of Trump appears to have been the triggering mechanism given that authoritarianism was a less salient predictor of U.S. House vote choice in 2016. Moreover, this relationship was true for both college and non-college educated whites. Authoritarianism also seems to have been primed by Trump appealing to racial animus, anti-immigration sentiment, nativism, and anti-Muslim prejudice. Authoritarianism is likely to remain a salient determinant of vote choice during the Trump era. Indeed, a widening and deepening of this cleavage means its effects are likely to be apparent in elections below the presidency.

Hispanic Millennial Ideology: Surprisingly, No Liberal “Monolith” Among College Students

The goal of this study is to analyze the ideological positions of Hispanic college students in the U.S. Rio Grande Valley (RGV). Building on Feldman and Johnston’s work, where they argue that a unidimensional model of political ideology provides an incomplete basis for study, we employ two dimensions to account for domestic policy preference. The core of the study is a taxonomic analysis of a survey of RGV college students taking government courses, where we find that the political beliefs of Hispanic millennials trend significantly more conservative and, especially, libertarian than expected. Possible implications for the future include a realignment of Hispanics with the Republican Party, a shift in a more libertarian direction within the Democratic Party itself, or an increase in younger Hispanics’ proclivity for independence from the two major parties. Our findings conform to Feldman and Johnston’s argument that the economic and social dimensions of political ideology are separate and distinct, making it essential that researchers analyze both dimensions in order to have an accurate and comprehensive understanding of individuals’ political ideology. In addition, using recent American National Election Studies (ANES) data sets, we compare how our samples are different from the general U.S. population, employing a principal component analysis (PCA).

Identifying the Effect of Political Rumor Diffusion Using Variations in Survey Timing

Despite growing concerns about the diffusion of political rumors, researchers often lack the means to estimate their effects. Field experiments seem infeasible due to ethical issues. Survey experiments typically invoke strong assumptions about homogeneous treatment effects across subjects and settings. We argue that exploiting temporal overlap between rumor circulations and survey interviews can be a useful alternative. We focus on an accidental and sudden spread of “Obama-is-a-Muslim” myths in September 2008. Using a difference-in-difference strategy that compares over-time belief changes of those interviewed for the September wave of the 2008–2009 American National Election Studies surveys before the rumor circulation and afterwards, we find that this event increased people’s belief that Barak Obama is a Muslim by 4 to 8 percentage points. To rule out various alternative explanations, we show that the treatment and control groups changed in parallel across waves in terms of an extensive set of placebo variables including political knowledge, other political misperception, and general attitudes toward Obama.

Polls and Elections: Presidential Referendum Effects in the 2018 Midterm Election: An Initial Analysis

Using the recently released American National Election Studies (ANES) 2018 Pilot Study, this article tests for presidential referendum effects in House, Senate, and gubernatorial contests during that election cycle. Results find strong presidential referendum effects in spite of the considerable correlation between presidential approval and several political predispositions, notably partisan and ideological identification. Weak electoral performance of Republican candidates was due to President Donald Trump's overall low approval ratings. However, Trump approvers appeared more inclined to turn out to vote than disapprovers, which softened the negative effect of Trump's weak approval polls on Republican candidate vote totals. The conclusion discusses the potential implications of these findings for the upcoming 2020 presidential elections, especially if Trump approvers continue their turnout advantage over disapprovers.

Are White Evangelicals Populists? The View from the 2016 American National Election Study

The role of religion in the rise of populism is sometimes contested, but usually neglected. In this article, we consider the question of whether white American Evangelicals are part of the populist movement. Using the American National Election Study of 2016, we demonstrate that Evangelicals share almost all of the central traits of “populists” posited by observers of such movements and consider some of the implications of this finding.

Trust in Government and the American Public’s Responsiveness to Rising Inequality

The United States has become increasingly unequal. Income inequality has risen dramatically since the 1970s, yet public opinion toward redistribution has remained largely unchanged. This is puzzling, given Americans’ professed concern regarding, and knowledge of, rising inequality. I argue that trust in government can help to reconcile this. I combine data on state-level income inequality with survey data from the Cumulative American National Election Studies (CANES) from 1984 to 2016. I find that trust in government conditions the relationship between inequality and redistribution, with higher inequality prompting demand for government redistribution, but only among politically trustful individuals. This holds among conservatives and non-conservatives and among the affluent and non-affluent. These findings underscore the relevance of political trust in shaping attitudes toward inequality and economic redistribution and contribute to our understanding of why American public opinion has not turned in favor of redistribution during an era of rising income inequality.

Surveying American Indians with Opt-In Internet Surveys

Although the national survey is the dominant method used to study American attitudes and behavior, it has been used only infrequently to study American Indians. This article examines the possibility of using Internet opt-in panel surveys to study American Indian populations. We first compare the results from an original national stand-alone opt-in panel study with those of pooled data sets from the Current Population Survey and the American National Election Studies. We then use the opt-in panel survey to examine how different operational definitions of American Indians affect how well their political behavior and attitudes are understood. The results of this initial research offer cautionary hope for the use of opt-in panel surveys to study the development of American Indian political behavior and attitudes.

Digital Segregation: Gender, Occupation, and Access to Politics

In the United States, women often show less interest in politics, and under some conditions, perform worse than men on political knowledge tests. In an age where education levels have reached parity, we suggest one of the explanations for gender differences in political engagement might be due to selection of occupation. Past research has shown women and men segregate into different occupations due to early gender socialization, differences in interest, and structural barriers. It is possible that due to these segregation effects, women in traditional female occupations (e.g., education, health care, service work) may have less access to personal Internet use and news sources during their work days. Using the 2014 General Social Survey, we create a new occupational typology based on access to the Internet to explore whether individuals in certain sectors differ in their political engagement and how these occupations are also divided by gender. Then, we apply the technology use measure to the 2016 American National Election Study and find that technology access on the job does not seem to be related to political knowledge, once we account for education, which offers some insight into the mechanisms by which individuals gain this knowledge. In addition, the interaction between total media consumption and tech use suggests that the gap in political knowledge between men and women is stubbornly persistent.

White identity politics: linked fate and political participation

ABSTRACT Hopes that Barack Obama’s election in 2008 would usher in a post-racial America were dashed by the rise of the Tea Party and the 2016 presidential contest. Despite renewed attention to White political behavior following the campaign of Donald Trump and rise of the “Alt-Right,” the identity-to-politics link for Whites remains underexplored in the field of political science. Analysis of data from the 2012 American National Election Study and the 2016 Collaborative Multi-racial Post-election Survey indicates that Whites, depite their privileged majority status, feel their fate is tied to members of their racial group at levels comparable to Black, Latinx, and Asian Americans. Furthermore, we find that a sense of racial linked fate was associated with significantly higher rates of participation in multiple electoral activities, including turning out to vote, registering to vote, contributing money to a candidate, volunteering for a political campaign, and participating in protest among Whites in both elections with notable partisan differences.

Self-Esteem and the Development of Partisan Identity

Why do young people choose to identify with a political party? While existing accounts emphasize the importance of political socialization, we propose that young people’s self-perceptions also influence the adoption of partisan identities. Using survey data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we show that self-esteem plays an important role in the development of partisanship among young people, where those with higher self-esteem are more likely to adopt a partisan identity than those with low self-esteem. Using responses from the 2012–2013 American National Election Study, we further show that the effects of self-esteem are concentrated among young adults, promoting the adoption of partisan identities during one’s impressionable years. By focusing on the inheritance of partisanship from one’s parents, scholars have underestimated the importance of young people’s traits in influencing the development of partisan identities.

When Partisan Identification and Economic Evaluations Conflict: A Closer Look at Conflicted Partisans in the United States

ObjectiveMost partisan voters in the United States hold biased perceptions of the state of the national economy. Comparatively little is known, however, about voters who hold economic evaluations that conflict with their partisan identification.MethodsI use the American National Election Studies from 1980 to 2016 to conduct over time regression analyses of the identity and behavior of conflicted partisans.ResultsThe share of conflicted partisans is substantial, especially during economic recessions. Conflict is associated with weak levels of party identification, higher levels of nonvoting, and lower levels of in‐party voting.ConclusionA closer look at conflicted partisans suggests that partisan bias in economic judgments fluctuates over time and varies among party affiliates. The study further shows that conflict between party affiliation and economic judgments is associated with differential voting and turnout patterns among party identifiers.

Rural political participation in the United States: alienation or action?

ABSTRACTGlobally, concern has risen over support for authoritarian populism, in some cases specifically among rural populations. Rural influence, however, may be limited by relatively low political participation. This article examines participation in the United States, where past evidence shows rural Americans have been less involved in politics than their urban counterparts. Analysis of American National Election Studies (ANES) data from 1952 to 2012 shows historically less participation for rural residents relative to suburban and urban residents. Between 1988 and 2008, low political trust, a negative economic outlook, high external efficacy, and being more ideological and partisan are associated with increased political participation. These findings imply rural Americans with polarised views who feel deprived of political and economic power may participate more frequently in future political activities. Concurrently, similarly polarised circumstances in urban areas and low rural political efficacy may lead the rural-urban participation gap to persist.

Modern American Populism: Analyzing the Economics Behind the “Silent Majority,” the Tea Party, and Trumpism

AbstractModern American populism (MAP) was born out of the political upheaval of the civil rights movement of the 1960s. The article examines the causes of populism. Economic anxiety is found to be the main cause, but there is also evidence supporting an alternative theory that racial resentment is an important driving force behind populism. The article analyzes the role of populism in the 1972 election of Richard Nixon, the Tea Party election of 2010, and the 2016 election of Donald Trump using data provided by the American National Election Studies (ANES). There is ample qualitative evidence that economic anxiety caused the populist voting patterns that elected Nixon, Tea Party candidates, and Trump. Statistical data supported the same conclusion in the 2010 and 2016 elections, but the 1972 data were inconclusive. The data show that both economic anxiety and racial resentment played a role in the 2010 and 2016 elections, but the findings suggest that economic anxiety is the underlying factor that generates both racial resentment and support for populism.

Racial Disparities in Public Meeting Participation? Examining Past Evidence and Nationally Representative Data

Are there racial/ethnic disparities in local public meeting participation? To date, very few studies investigating this question centrally or peripherally have relied on nationally representative data. Thus, in this research note, I discuss some of the limitations associated with previous studies that have examined the characteristics of public meeting participants. More importantly, I analyze data provided by the American National Election Studies (ANES) to investigate the extent to which group disparities, especially racial/ethnic disparities, exist in public meeting participation. The analysis of pooled data from the ANES does not reveal, on a general level, racial/ethnic group differences in public meeting participation, but it does suggest that such differences may exist among the economically vulnerable. I conclude with proposals of how to move forward with conducting research on public meeting participation.