When Partisan Identification and Economic Evaluations Conflict: A Closer Look at Conflicted Partisans in the United States

Abstract

ObjectiveMost partisan voters in the United States hold biased perceptions of the state of the national economy. Comparatively little is known, however, about voters who hold economic evaluations that conflict with their partisan identification.MethodsI use the American National Election Studies from 1980 to 2016 to conduct over time regression analyses of the identity and behavior of conflicted partisans.ResultsThe share of conflicted partisans is substantial, especially during economic recessions. Conflict is associated with weak levels of party identification, higher levels of nonvoting, and lower levels of in‐party voting.ConclusionA closer look at conflicted partisans suggests that partisan bias in economic judgments fluctuates over time and varies among party affiliates. The study further shows that conflict between party affiliation and economic judgments is associated with differential voting and turnout patterns among party identifiers.