Ambitious Policy Research Articles

Green New Deals in comparative perspective

AbstractIn February 2019, Representative Alexandria Ocasio‐Cortez and Senator Ed Markey introduced into the US Congress a non‐binding resolution for a Green New Deal, with the aim to catalyze policies and programs to rapidly decarbonize the US economy while achieving wider progressive economic, social and environmental goals. This motion sparked widespread interest, in and beyond the US, in the potential for more ambitious and solidaristic climate policy under the banner of a Green New Deal (GND). This Overview, after introducing the history of the GND concept and exploring its dimensions in theory, provides a snapshot of GNDs proposed (or adopted/enacted) by politicians, candidates for political office, political parties and governments around the world in the period 2019–2022. Drawing on theories of comparative politics and comparative political economy, the Overview illuminates key patterns in the prevalence and content of this set of GND proposals, as well as their ideological underpinnings and implicit “theories of change.” Specifically, it ventures that: GND policies are more commonly proposed in high‐income, industrialized democracies; variation in GNDs' prevalence and content are associated with varieties of capitalism and electoral institutions; GND policies are more commonly proposed by left‐of‐center parties and candidates; and GNDs are being proposed at all levels of government, but their content is shaped by constraints on government powers. On the basis of this analysis, the concluding section proposes a detailed research agenda on GNDs, with an emphasis on comparative research.This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Benefits of Mitigation Policy and Governance > National Climate Change Policy Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance

Investigating Energy Renovation of Multi-Owner Buildings and Real Estate Market Issues in a Degraded Greek Urban Area

States establish ambitious policies and important measures to achieve targets for the energy upgrade of buildings but although some important barriers prevent their implementation in space, they are rather overlooked by research. In this paper, it is argued that extensive multi-ownership (MO) and weak performance of the real estate market in degraded urban areas impede the mass energy retrofitting of multi-owner buildings (MOBs), which are an important part of the urban building stock A deprived area of central Athens (Greece) that serves as a case study. With a pluridisciplinary approach based on extensive field surveys, cadastral data analysis and cases of energy renovation of buildings through a public–private partnership financing scheme as well as ways to overcome the MO issue were explored, according to the provisions of the Greek legal framework. The integrated urban regeneration approach is promoted as a means to encounter the MO issue and enhance the functioning of the real estate market by the generation of surplus values that will render the energy retrofitting of buildings more attractive to investors and thus achieve the deep renovation of MOBs towards the sustainability of the urban environment. This paper ultimately advocates the integration of energy planning with spatial planning.

The energy transition in the cities of Copenhagen, Helsinki, and Stockholm: Similar or different pathways towards the EU's 2030 targets?

The article aims to examine and compare the energy transition process in three EU capitals – Copenhagen, Helsinki, and Stockholm. All three EU Nordic capital cities have similar climate conditions as well as demographic and economic potential. They work towards the transition from fossil fuel energy to renewable energy, and their achievements in this field are evidenced by their positions in the most influential rankings. As the capitals of EU members, all cities are obliged to contribute to ambitious climate policy targets such as the European Green Deal, aimed at GHG emission reduction by 2030 and becoming climate-neutral by 2050. The article focuses on similarities and differences in pathways followed by the three cities and describes the factors that facilitate their energy transition as well as problematic issues that may delay the process. It is based on a comparative case studies model that involves gathering and analysing both qualitative and quantitative data.

Now they can cope? The Green Deal and the contested meaning of sustainability in EU sectoral governance

The European Union (EU) has long discursively positioned itself as a global frontrunner for sustainability and climate protection. Nevertheless, substantive progress toward sustainability goals has not been reached in several governance areas, such as transport and mobility. Especially at the local scale, the highly complex and technocratic EU policy framework is confronted with increasingly polarized claim-making regarding ecological, social and economic problems. With its recent Green Deal governance architecture, the European Commission has sought to address this ideational and institutional fragmentation and resulting stalemate toward reaching “climate neutrality” by proposing ambitious sectoral policies and new governance instruments. This problem-driven paper exploratively investigates the ongoing reconfigurations the Green Deal induces within EU governance. Using the example of the urban mobility sector and employing an interpretive analysis of key policy documents and expert/stakeholder interviews, the paper links the literatures on EU governance architectures and norm dynamics. It discusses potentials and pitfalls for meaning-making processes in times of the socioecological polycrisis. Notably, it critically evaluates the Green Deal’s capacity to open and sustain spaces for translating sustainability across horizontally and vertically fragmented realms of EU governance.

How does an economic shock affect environmental attitudes, preferences and issue importance? Evidence from Switzerland

How do economic shocks affect pressure by the mass public for pro-environmental political action? If democratic systems are to develop and sustain ambitious environmental policy over several decades, this question is important to answer. Theoretically, we argue to look beyond changes in attitudes such as environmental concern, and trace whether and how citizen's policy preferences, and the political importance they attach to environment-related issues change when experiencing a deterioration of their personal economic situation. Empirically, we draw on high-quality population-representative panel survey data for an affluent country, Switzerland, combining tailored survey measures for quasi-random Corona-related employment and income losses, nuanced measures of environmental attitudes and policy preferences, and recently developed measures for issue importance. We neither find a decline of environmental policy support among economically affected individuals compared to the rest of the population (a population wide drop, however), nor lower importance given to environment related relative to economic issues in voting decisions. While this suggests that politicians need not fear electoral losses when pursuing environmental policies in times of economic crisis, we note that the severe extent of the Covid-induced recession, coupled with a rapid recovery, is peculiar to this economic crisis and warrants further research regarding the generalizability of our findings to economic shocks of longer duration.

Time Scales of the Low-Carbon Transition: A Data-Driven Dynamic Multi-Sector Growth Model

Abstract This paper employs a dynamic multi-sector growth model with changing technology to study the relevance of the price and quantity dimensions involved in the technical substitution of carbon-intensive technology, that is, the low-carbon transition. For the framing of the transition, the stylized market dynamics by Flaschel and Semmler (1987. “Classical and Neoclassical Competitive Adjustment Processes.” The Manchester School 55 (1): 13–37) are used, who propose a cross-dual out-of-equilibrium adjustment process. The major empirical challenge to identify the adjustment speed for quantities and prices is to empirically estimate sector-specific adjustment coefficients. The transition speed is estimated for seven carbon-intensive sectors in six high-income economies (Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Japan, and the US) using a mixed-effects varying-slopes model on EU KLEMS data. Directed technical change is enforced by a revenue-neutral, pro-active fiscal policy of a tax–subsidy form, which has the effect to greatly accelerate the phase-out of carbon-intensive technology and the phase-in of green technology. The speed of green substitution that allows decarbonization is then evaluated analytically and computationally along four policy and time dimensions: cost advantage, a percentage tax on carbon-intensive output, a green subsidy rate, and initial investment ratios. Though the tax itself has an impact on the speed of decarbonization, it is significantly improved by green subsidies and green investments. The cost advantage of the green over the carbon technology is shown to have a negligible impact on decarbonization speed by itself. Without ambitious fiscal policy, especially in the form of green investment support, this substitution process appears to be too slow to reach decarbonization in a timely manner.

The Investment Development Path Theory: Empirical Evidence from Global Data

Considering the changing foreign investment environment and composition of countries in the development classifications, we examined the investment development path (IDP) based on data from 137 countries over 29 years (1991 to 2019). Categorising the countries into developing, emerging, and developed, we found developing countries to be in stage IV, ahead of theoretical stage II. Emerging economies are in stage II, a step below the theoretical stage III. Only developed countries have maintained their position in stage V as proposed by the IDP theory. Globally, the data shows countries have traversed stages I, II, III, IV and V. Firms in developing countries must maintain their competitive advantage whilst relocating operations with waning competitive advantage abroad. Emerging economies must grow their economies faster than the current rate. The extra income should support an ambitious foreign investment policy that would escalate the current level of outward foreign direct investment. Governments in developed countries must pursue the role of “strategic oligopolists”, recognising and monitoring the conduct of other governments in the development and implementation of their multinational enterprise development strategies.

The impacts of decarbonization pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union

Climate action to achieve the Paris Agreement should respect the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we use an integrated assessment modelling framework comprising nine climate policy models and quantify the impacts of decarbonisation pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union at regional and national levels. We show that scenario-consistent assumptions of future socio-economic trends and current climate policies would improve energy- and carbon-related aspects of sustainability and reduce inequalities. Ambitious net-zero emissions pathways would further improve health and agricultural productivity. Furthermore, countries currently lagging in achieving sustainable development goals would see the greatest benefits from ambitious climate action. Negative socio-economic impacts from climate action on poverty, hunger, and economic growth will require specific corrective policies. While our analysis does not quantify the negative effects of less ambitious climate policy, it demonstrates where co-benefits and trade-offs of greenhouse gas mitigation and sustainable development agenda exist and can guide policy formulation.

Mission-oriented scenarios: a new method for urban foresight

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions.Design/methodology/approachThe paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030.FindingsMission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships.Originality/valueThe paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.

One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiatives: Advantages and Challenges of Policy

China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiative is a comprehensive economic interdependent relation which aims to increase regional connectivity and is an enhancement of its geopolitical interest for the benefits of herself, Asia, as well as in European states. This paper is an attempt to analyse the advantages and challenges of One Belt One Road Initiative. China has become a significant influence in economic for eighteen out of the last twenty centuries. Today, China has also taken a move forward in turning its economic success into a diplomatic power comparison with other nations in the region. China’s OBOR plan is not only another new path on the Silk Road but a comprehensive and ambitious strategic policy for Eurasia. Through this viewpoint, the scope of China’s short-and long-term priorities may be inferred, including internal development, steady economic growth, deepened change, and opening up to the outside world. In turn, the same policy presents China with an ability to strengthen its soft power, improve ties with its neighbours, oil stability, and cooperative partnerships with government, as well as cooperation in global governance bodies and contributors to the global economy. This paper employed the qualitative methods. The findings of this research are The OBOR Initiative able to generate higher economic revenue to China and within the region through various of projects as well as encourage a better flow of trade goods, increase investment, and connects people. Also, the initiative could strengthen the economic cooperation between China and participating states. The OBOR Initiative provides an avenue to its government to establish a series of relations with participating states. As a result, these relations have created a positive impact on trade flow and integration not only in ASEAN but also towards other nonparticipating states. Thus, such connections create higher international trade which ultimately increased Chinese and participating states economic revenue.

China's pathway towards a net zero and circular economy: A model-based scenario analysis

The remarkable economic growth of China over recent decades has been accompanied by significant achievements in poverty reduction. However, this growth has also led to increased resource consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It's now evident that addressing the triple challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution hinges in part on China's capacity to curtail its resource use and emissions. Our study utilises an integrated economic modelling framework to assess China's role in the global context. We evaluate ambitious policies in resource efficiency, GHG reduction, and land-use transformation within China. Our findings indicate that, under such ambitious policies, China could likely achieve peak material use and emissions by 2030 and attain net zero emissions by 2050. Moreover, our analysis underscores that China can play a pivotal role in helping achieve global climate goals in collaboration with the rest of the world. Implementing well-designed policies, including the adoption of a circular economy approach, might enable China to meet these environmental targets with minimised economic costs.

An Analysis of Risks and Challenges to the Polish Power Industry in the Year 2024

The green transition is a challenge for the Polish economy and energy sector. In this paper, the expert method of analysis was applied and findings revealed that the challenges and prerequisites for an effective transformation of the power sector mainly include technical, technological and organizational issues of energy production and use. The provision of electricity at competitive prices and with a low carbon footprint, for individual consumers and industry, is a prerequisite for maintaining the well-being of the population and ensuring the competitiveness of domestically produced goods. The ambitious climate policy goals of the European Union require immediate action and call for radical changes in the Polish energy sector; in the coming years, it must drastically reduce the amount of energy produced from fossil fuels and replace it with so-called green energy from renewable sources. The main purpose of this article was to highlight the need to modify Poland’s energy policy until 2040 in order to make it more consistent with the ambitious climate goals of the European Union. This article also shows that Poland’s energy transition must include a shift from fossil fuels to renewables, while ensuring that energy security is stabilized by the current energy and generation resources. To this end, we discuss the issues of creating reserves in the national energy system for the entire period of Poland’s energy transition.

‘Go-No-Go’: Anticommons and Inter-ministerial conflict in India’s Forest and Mineral Governance

India’s forests, particularly in coal and other mineral-bearing regions, have been at the centre of many social and environmental conflicts. Such conflicts will likely remain salient over the next decade as India appears to be moving towards greater use of coal instead of transitioning away from it. The current governance architecture in mineral-bearing forested areas is characterized by fragmentation of rights across different stakeholders and a pluralistic institutional regime – a situation often characterized as ‘anticommons.’ ‘Anticommons’ lead to the resource getting gridlocked and underused. The Indian government undertook a critical and ambitious policy design exercise – the ‘Go-No-Go’ or Inviolate Forest Policy (IFP) policy – to address the resource dilemmas by ‘objectively’ demarcating forests for mining and conservation. This paper traces the conflict around the policy formulation as it manifested in the corridors and ministries of the government. We use a novel data source of government records of formal policy deliberations – obtained through India’s transparency law, Right to Information (RTI) – supported by conversations with senior bureaucrats, policymakers, and expert observers. We find that the quest for ‘objective’ demarcation of ‘pristine’ forests for conservation was marked by inter-ministerial conflict, laden with asymmetric power balances and involving the careful deployment of discursive frames and tactical maneuvers. We argue that the multiplicity of use-values that get valued differently a) by different individuals/groups of individuals and b) at different scales inscribe the possibility of conflict at the heart of any attempt to resolve anticommons, as can be seen in the IFP. In the process, we expose the problems in prioritizing amongst competing resource-uses, using ‘efficiency’-based approaches. Further, our analysis presents an implicit critique of the monolithic understanding of the State in the supply of property rights.

Europe's ambitious pesticide policy and its impact on agriculture and food systems

AbstractEuropean countries have set ambitious policy goals to reduce the risks of pesticides to the environment and human health. European agriculture could play a leading role in the transition to a low pesticide risk future, with various societal benefits. However, such a transition also involves trade‐offs, costs, and risks for farmers and society. Here, we summarize possible implications for agriculture and food systems in Europe and beyond and discuss avenues for future research.

Quality attributes of fish feeds and their potential effects on the aquatic ecosystem and aquaculture sustainability in East Africa

ABSTRACT Low quality feeds are an impediment to sustainable fish farming in East Africa. Low quality feeds affect fish growth, pollute the aquatic ecosystem, escalate conflicts among competing water resource users, and affect enterprise sustainability. We investigated the physical and nutrient attributes, and the aflatoxin levels of selected fish feeds in E. Africa. The actual crude protein and crude lipid of the feeds deviated from the package quoted values by −20 to 7% and −5.5 to 9.6%, respectively. All feeds were inadequate in essential minerals, and their aflatoxin levels were low (range: 8.71 ± 0.52 to 71.90 ± 0.59 µg/kg). We highlight the potential effects of using low-quality feeds on the fed fish, aquatic ecosystem, and aquaculture sustainability in East Africa. To ensure a healthy aquatic environment with reduced resource-use conflicts and sustainable fish farming, ambitious policy reviews are recommended.

Systematic mapping of climate and environmental framing experiments and re-analysis with computational methods points to omitted interaction bias

Ambitious climate policy requires acceptance by millions of people whose daily lives would be affected in costly ways. In turn, this requires an understanding of how to get the mass public on board and prevent a political backlash against costly climate policies. Many scholars regard ‘framing’, specially tailored messages emphasizing specific subsets of political arguments to certain population subgroups, as an effective communication strategy for changing climate beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. In contrast, other scholars argue that people hold relatively stable opinions and doubt that framing can alter public opinion on salient issues like climate change. We contribute to this debate in two ways: First, we conduct a systematic mapping of 121 experimental studies on climate and environmental policy framing, published in 46 peer-reviewed journals and present results of a survey with authors of these studies. Second, we illustrate the use of novel computational methods to check for the robustness of subgroup effects and identify omitted interaction bias. We find that most experiments report significant main and subgroup effects but rarely use advanced methods to account for potential omitted interaction bias. Moreover, only a few studies make their data publicly available to easily replicate them. Our survey of framing researchers suggests that when scholars successfully publish non-significant effects, these were typically bundled together with other, significant effects to increase publication chances. Finally, using a Bayesian computational sparse regression technique, we offer an illustrative re-analysis of 10 studies focusing on subgroup framing differences by partisanship (a key driver of climate change attitudes) and show that these effects are often not robust when accounting for omitted interaction bias.

The environmental and economic effects of international cooperation on restricting fossil fuel supply

Achieving the Paris Agreement’s global temperature goal of keeping warming well below 2 °C and ideally 1.5 °C requires limiting fossil fuel production. In the United Nations climate change negotiations, this need is only beginning to be acknowledged. Nevertheless, as some countries have already adopted supply-side climate policies, initial cooperative activities have started, and calls grow for a fossil fuel treaty, questions arise about the prospects and possible effects of international cooperation on limiting fossil fuel supply. Combining qualitative insights on possible participants in a supply-side coalition with a quantitative analysis based on integrated assessment general equilibrium modelling, this article addresses these questions. Through k-means clustering based on fossil reserves per capita, fossil fuel rents and existing supply-side policies, we first identify which (groups of) countries are most likely to lead the formation of an international supply-side coalition, and which (groups of) countries are likely to follow. Drawing on these insights, we develop several scenarios for the evolution of international supply-side coalitions and compare these to a business-as-usual scenario. By doing so, we demonstrate the global and regional environmental, trade and macroeconomic effects of international cooperation on limiting fossil fuel supply and combining fossil supply restrictions with carbon pricing to meet the Paris goals. Our findings underscore the importance of pursuing supply-side and ambitious demand-side climate policies in parallel, and identify the scope and coverage, size of the coalition, and incentives for participation as key design elements for an international supply-side coalition.

Credible and comprehensive? Comparing policy mixes for Local Energy Systems in England, Scotland and Wales

Integrated Local Energy Systems (LES) are being pursued internationally as a component of net zero, with additional benefits to regions and communities. This paper develops and tests a policy mixes approach to examine differential development of LES policies over 11 years in the three political jurisdictions (England, Scotland and Wales) which comprise Great Britain's (GB) single energy market. The analysis contributes to knowledge about the strengths and weaknesses of the policy mixes concept as an analytical tool for exploring divergence in devolved governments. It also considers the likely effectiveness of these policy mixes for stimulating LES developments in practice. Analysis of over 50 policy strategies and 105 policy instruments is used to evaluate the credibility of the policy mixes, ie. whether these are believable and reliable, and their comprehensiveness, ie. whether all market, system and institutional failures are addressed. The policy mix in England exhibits fluctuation and short-termism, making it the least credible. Strategies in Scotland and Wales demonstrate a more credible and ambitious policy mix for LES, including long term policies and new instruments added over time. However, limited political powers mean that the policy mixes in Scotland and Wales are less comprehensive than in England, making the realisation of LES uncertain. Further, none of the policies are designed to challenge systemic interdependencies of GB's liberalised and largely centralised energy system. This ultimately limits capacity to deliver LES and highlights the need for policy development, in GB and elsewhere, to encompass regulatory and institutional innovation to realise LES benefits.

Tax Cuts Impact on the Economy from the Perspective of Debt and Exchange Rate

In September of 2022, the newly inaugurated British Prime Minister, Liz Truss, introduced an ambitious policy involving significant tax cuts to stimulate the economy swamped by the COVID-19 pandemic. Regrettably, her ambitious plan eventually led to financial insolvency and catastrophically impacted on the UK's economic growth. Through the rigorous examination and analysis of data, this article primarily attributes her failure to the absence of consumer confidence and the outflow of capital, which were consequences of the substantial currency devaluation caused by the surging government debt. Then, the article draws comparisons between the UK's tax cut and successful case studies from the United States and China, which effectively managed the side effects of expansive tax cuts or similar policies that led to substantial increases in government debt. The findings argue that tax reduction policies cannot yield favorable outcomes unless they are the US with global currency status or in nations like China which can largely eliminate the currency devaluation by a governmental control on exchange rates.

Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of the urban air pollution island effect for 2273 cities in China

Air pollution levels tend to be higher in urban areas than in surrounding rural areas, and this air pollution has a negative effect on human health. However, the spatiotemporal patterns of urban–rural air pollution differences and the determinants of these differences remain unclear. Here, we calculate the Urban Air Pollution Island (UAPI) intensity for PM2.5 and PM10 on a monthly, seasonal, and annual scale for 2273 cities in China from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, we analyze the influence of urban characteristics using a combined approach of a two-way fixed effects model and a spatial Durbin model. Results show a strong downward trend in the UAPI intensity since 2013, with reductions ranging from 42 % to 61 % until 2020, for both pollutants and in summer as well as winter. Consistently, the proportion of the cities experiencing the UAPI phenomenon decreased from 94.5 % to 77.3 % for both PM2.5 and PM10. We find a significant influence of urban morphology on UAPI. Specifically, urban sprawl, polycentric development, and an increase in urban green spaces are associated with a reduction in UAPI, while dense urban areas intensify it. Our study also reveals a robust inverted U-shaped relationship between stages of economic development and UAPI. Moreover, economic development and air pollution itself show spillover effects that oppose their direct impacts. These results suggest that urban and regional planning and more ambitious climate change mitigation policies could be more effective strategies for mitigating air pollution in cities than end-of-pipe control.