Ambitious Mitigation Scenarios Research Articles

Changes in Regional Potential Vegetation in Response to an Ambitious Mitigation Scenario

Climate change impacts on the potential vegetation (biomes) are compared for an ambitious emissions-reduction scenario (E1) and a medium-high emissions scenario with no mitigation policy (A1B). The E1 scenario aims at limiting global mean warming to 2°C or less above pre-industrial temperatures and is closely related to the RCP2.6 sued in the CMIP5. A multi-model ensemble of ten state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) is analyzed. A simple biome model is used to assess the response of potential vegetation to the different forcing in the two scenarios. Changes in biomes in response to the simulated climate change are less pronounced in E1 than in the A1B scenario. Most biomes shift polewards, with biomes adapted to colder climates being replaced by biomes adapted to warmer climates. In some regions cold biomes (e.g. Tundra, Taiga) nearly disappear in the A1B scenario but are also significantly reduced under the E1 scenario.

Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: A participatory approach

This paper addresses the challenge of engaging civil society stakeholders in the development process of ambitious mitigation scenarios that are based on formal energy system modeling, allowing for the explicit attachment of normative considerations to technology-focused mitigation options. It presents the definition and model results for a set of mitigation scenarios for Germany that achieve 85% CO2 emission reduction in 2050 relative to 1990. During consecutive dialogues, civil society stakeholders from the transport and electricity sector framed the definition of boundary conditions for the energy-economy model REMIND-D and evaluated the scenarios with regard to plausibility and social acceptance implications. Even though the limited scope of this research impedes inferential conclusions on the German energy transition as a whole, it demonstrates that the technological solutions to the mitigation problem proposed by the model give rise to significant societal and political implications that deem at least as challenging as the mere engineering aspects of innovative technologies. These insights underline the importance of comprehending mitigation of energy-related CO2 emissions as a socio-technical transition embedded in a political context.