Ambitious Climate Policy Research Articles

The European Green Deal and turbulence for non-member states

The European Green Deal (EGD) has had a significant impact on EU member states. In this article, we examine the extent to which it can also have large consequences for non-members. Based on a qualitative approach comparing Norway and the UK, and drawing on a burgeoning literature on ‘turbulence’, we ask whether the EGD creates turbulence in non-member states, what the nature of this turbulence is, and whether the extent and nature of turbulence varies with how closely affiliated a non-member is with the EU. Despite the ambitious climate policies of both countries, we identify a significant amount of turbulence generated by the EGD. Interestingly, we also find that turbulence increases with a closer EU-affiliation. However, our analysis also reveals an impressive capacity in both countries to adapt to their turbulent conditions, and a surprising durability of climate and energy policy in the face of turbulence.

Carbon taxes and tariffs, financial frictions, and international spillovers

Ambitious climate policy, coupled with financial frictions, has the potential to create macrofinancial stability risk. Such stability risk may expand beyond the economy implementing climate policy, potentially catching other countries off guard. International spillovers may occur because of trade and financial channels. Hence, we study the design and effects of climate policies in the world economy with international trade and financial flows. We develop a two-sector, two-country, dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions, climate policies, including carbon tariffs, and macroprudential policies. Using the calibrated model, we evaluate spillovers from unilateral domestic carbon pricing to foreign economies and back. We also examine more ambitious climate architectures involving carbon tariffs or a global carbon price. We find that accounting for cross-border financial flows and frictions in credit markets is crucial to understand the effects of climate policies and to guide the implementation of macroprudential policies at the global scale aimed at minimizing transition risk and paving the way for ambitious climate policy.

Climate action on Twitter: perceived barriers for actions and actors, and sentiments during COP26

Abstract We studied public perceptions of what climate actions are needed, which actors should and can act, and which factors inhibit or enable those actions using the naturally occurring discourse on climate actions on Twitter during COP26. By incorporating big data computational methods with a theory-based qualitative analysis, we aimed to identify climate actions and actors at the international, national, local, and individual levels, and systematically evaluate the perceived barriers and enablers in taking action and related public sentiments. We find that political and industry leaders are widely perceived as the most responsible and capable of taking action. Yet, their current inaction is perceived as inhibiting net-zero transitions and triggers anger, fear, and blame. In contrast, discourse on citizens and local communities demonstrates hope and solidarity in enacting pro-environmental changes from the bottom up, signaling strong public demand for ambitious climate policies and actions. These findings highlight the importance of removing institutional barriers and catalyzing socio-cultural support to accelerate collective climate progress. Overall, our mixed-method approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of how to step up societal-wide climate actions, paving the way for much-needed communications and collaborations across society to achieve a sustainable future.

Regional variation in social norm nudges

Public support is crucial for the effectiveness of ambitious climate policies, and social norm interventions have been proven effective in fostering support. An open question is which norms should be communicated if support and estimated support for climate policies differ substantially between regions. In two studies, we investigate whether individuals accurately assess the existing support and then explore the impact of national and regional norms on public support. Our results show that the norm on climate policy support is generally misperceived, i.e., the norm is higher than expected. This misperception increases with policy ambition and varies substantially between sub-national regions. Information about the national norm increases support, mainly in regions with below or above-average support. In contrast, interventions with regional norms are ineffective and even backfire in low-support regions. This demonstrates that norm nudges need to consider the regional aspects of the reference and target groups.

Climate policy at the International Monetary Fund: No voice for the vulnerable?

AbstractThe climate crisis prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF), an international lender of last resort, to implement wholesale reforms to incorporate climate policy into its operations. At the IMF, selected countries from the Global North—historically the largest emitters of greenhouse gases—dominate decision‐making. This raises several questions. Can the Fund implement an ambitious and effective climate policy? How are climate‐vulnerable developing countries and their interests represented in everyday decision‐making at the institution? Drawing on scholarship on the political economy and legitimacy of international organizations, we focus on the formal distribution of decision‐making power within the IMF to evaluate the IMF's shift toward climate change. Our empirical analysis of the representation of 57 self‐identifying climate‐vulnerable developing countries (the V20) at the IMF and within its Executive Board shows that these countries, speaking for almost a third of the Fund's membership, command a vote share of merely 5.6%. Our assessment of the Climate Strategy adopted by the IMF amplifies equity concerns over its climate policies and further attests to the disregard of requests by developing countries. Barring meaningful governance reform to increase the voice and representation of climate‐vulnerable developing countries, the IMF's approach to addressing climate change is unlikely to translate into legitimate and effective climate policy.

Next stop carbon dioxide removal? German climate policies and the risky road to negative emission technologies

Both the global and the German climate targets are ambitious given recent emission reduction rates. In addition to emission reduction measures, carbon dioxide removal has been increasingly discussed recently and initial measures have been developed to potentially scale-up carbon removals in order to meet net zero targets. In this article, we undertake a political economy-based analysis of the historical development and structural conditions of German climate policy measures and their enabling role for the emergence and strengthening of carbon dioxide removal policy options. We refer to regulation theory and the Modell Deutschland approach and argue that within this model the concept of ecological modernization has been established as the dominant approach to regulate society-nature relations. In light of the ambitious climate policy goals, such as net zero by 2045, ecological modernization reaches its current limits and must be recalibrated. Against this background, we conclude by discussing the risk of mitigation deterrence associated with carbon dioxide removals and considering alternative pathways, such as degrowth, to social ecological transformation.

Перешкоди впровадженню теплових насосів у централізованому теплопостачанні

Today, heat pumps are recognized as one of the technologies that most contribute to the decarbonization of almost all spheres of modern society life, especially industry and energy. The integration of heat pumps into district heating is considered as an implementation of renewable energy technology that will enable the European Union (EU) to achieve its ambitious energy and climate policy goals for developing sustainable society. The purpose of this article is to analyze and systematize the EU experience in overcoming obstacles to the introduction of heat pump technologies in district heating and to determine the possibilities of its application in Ukraine. It was found that it is impossible to ensure the universal integration of heat pumps into district heating for all EU members, and an individual analysis is required for each EU country, taking all technical and environmental aspects into account. Obstacles to the large-scale implementation of heat pump technologies into district heating are of a complex nature. Complex obstacles require an integrated approach that simultaneously removes these obstacles and includes direct incentives, indirect taxes, technical standards, building codes, education, etc. An analysis of the experience of the EU countries (financial support, education and training, preferential tariffs for electricity for heat pump operation, EU regulations on energy efficiency of buildings, the EU directive on renewable energy sources, etc.) made it possible to identify obstacles to the widespread implementation of heat pumps in district heating. The main such obstacles are the high initial cost of heat pump equipment, the high cost of electricity, the high cost of connecting to electricity and heat networks, insufficient government incentives, the lack of domestic production of heat pumps and highly qualified personnel for their implementation. The proposed main preventive measures to overcome these obstacles are the creation of a State Program to stimulate the introduction of heat pumps; legislative support aimed at accelerating the introduction of heat pumps; creation of financial incentives for their implementation; state stimulation of production of heat pump equipment and professional training of operating personnel. This article is aimed at discussing directions for the formation of effective legislative and regulatory measures for comprehensive stimulation of the large-scale introduction of heat pumps in the district heating in Ukraine. Keywords: heat pumps, renewable energy sources, district heating, implementation, obstacles, overcoming.

Comparative Energy Transition Policy: How Exposure, Policy Vulnerability and Trust Affect Popular Acceptance of Policy Expansion

This article examines how exposure to energy transition and climate policy vulnerability influence popular support for more ambitious climate policy. Moreover, it explores whether this relationship depends on a person’s generalized and political trust. Comparing data from surveys in Germany and Switzerland, the findings reveal that perceived exposure to energy transition positively influences climate policy support, while individual climate policy vulnerability decreases it. For individuals with higher levels of trust, exposure helps enhance the positive effect (subjective exposure) or dampen the negative effect (policy vulnerability). These results underscore the importance of incorporating trust and subjective perceptions into climate policy frameworks.

Green New Deals in comparative perspective

AbstractIn February 2019, Representative Alexandria Ocasio‐Cortez and Senator Ed Markey introduced into the US Congress a non‐binding resolution for a Green New Deal, with the aim to catalyze policies and programs to rapidly decarbonize the US economy while achieving wider progressive economic, social and environmental goals. This motion sparked widespread interest, in and beyond the US, in the potential for more ambitious and solidaristic climate policy under the banner of a Green New Deal (GND). This Overview, after introducing the history of the GND concept and exploring its dimensions in theory, provides a snapshot of GNDs proposed (or adopted/enacted) by politicians, candidates for political office, political parties and governments around the world in the period 2019–2022. Drawing on theories of comparative politics and comparative political economy, the Overview illuminates key patterns in the prevalence and content of this set of GND proposals, as well as their ideological underpinnings and implicit “theories of change.” Specifically, it ventures that: GND policies are more commonly proposed in high‐income, industrialized democracies; variation in GNDs' prevalence and content are associated with varieties of capitalism and electoral institutions; GND policies are more commonly proposed by left‐of‐center parties and candidates; and GNDs are being proposed at all levels of government, but their content is shaped by constraints on government powers. On the basis of this analysis, the concluding section proposes a detailed research agenda on GNDs, with an emphasis on comparative research.This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Benefits of Mitigation Policy and Governance > National Climate Change Policy Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance

The energy transition in the cities of Copenhagen, Helsinki, and Stockholm: Similar or different pathways towards the EU's 2030 targets?

The article aims to examine and compare the energy transition process in three EU capitals – Copenhagen, Helsinki, and Stockholm. All three EU Nordic capital cities have similar climate conditions as well as demographic and economic potential. They work towards the transition from fossil fuel energy to renewable energy, and their achievements in this field are evidenced by their positions in the most influential rankings. As the capitals of EU members, all cities are obliged to contribute to ambitious climate policy targets such as the European Green Deal, aimed at GHG emission reduction by 2030 and becoming climate-neutral by 2050. The article focuses on similarities and differences in pathways followed by the three cities and describes the factors that facilitate their energy transition as well as problematic issues that may delay the process. It is based on a comparative case studies model that involves gathering and analysing both qualitative and quantitative data.

The impacts of decarbonization pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union

Climate action to achieve the Paris Agreement should respect the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we use an integrated assessment modelling framework comprising nine climate policy models and quantify the impacts of decarbonisation pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union at regional and national levels. We show that scenario-consistent assumptions of future socio-economic trends and current climate policies would improve energy- and carbon-related aspects of sustainability and reduce inequalities. Ambitious net-zero emissions pathways would further improve health and agricultural productivity. Furthermore, countries currently lagging in achieving sustainable development goals would see the greatest benefits from ambitious climate action. Negative socio-economic impacts from climate action on poverty, hunger, and economic growth will require specific corrective policies. While our analysis does not quantify the negative effects of less ambitious climate policy, it demonstrates where co-benefits and trade-offs of greenhouse gas mitigation and sustainable development agenda exist and can guide policy formulation.

An Analysis of Risks and Challenges to the Polish Power Industry in the Year 2024

The green transition is a challenge for the Polish economy and energy sector. In this paper, the expert method of analysis was applied and findings revealed that the challenges and prerequisites for an effective transformation of the power sector mainly include technical, technological and organizational issues of energy production and use. The provision of electricity at competitive prices and with a low carbon footprint, for individual consumers and industry, is a prerequisite for maintaining the well-being of the population and ensuring the competitiveness of domestically produced goods. The ambitious climate policy goals of the European Union require immediate action and call for radical changes in the Polish energy sector; in the coming years, it must drastically reduce the amount of energy produced from fossil fuels and replace it with so-called green energy from renewable sources. The main purpose of this article was to highlight the need to modify Poland’s energy policy until 2040 in order to make it more consistent with the ambitious climate goals of the European Union. This article also shows that Poland’s energy transition must include a shift from fossil fuels to renewables, while ensuring that energy security is stabilized by the current energy and generation resources. To this end, we discuss the issues of creating reserves in the national energy system for the entire period of Poland’s energy transition.

Systematic mapping of climate and environmental framing experiments and re-analysis with computational methods points to omitted interaction bias

Ambitious climate policy requires acceptance by millions of people whose daily lives would be affected in costly ways. In turn, this requires an understanding of how to get the mass public on board and prevent a political backlash against costly climate policies. Many scholars regard ‘framing’, specially tailored messages emphasizing specific subsets of political arguments to certain population subgroups, as an effective communication strategy for changing climate beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. In contrast, other scholars argue that people hold relatively stable opinions and doubt that framing can alter public opinion on salient issues like climate change. We contribute to this debate in two ways: First, we conduct a systematic mapping of 121 experimental studies on climate and environmental policy framing, published in 46 peer-reviewed journals and present results of a survey with authors of these studies. Second, we illustrate the use of novel computational methods to check for the robustness of subgroup effects and identify omitted interaction bias. We find that most experiments report significant main and subgroup effects but rarely use advanced methods to account for potential omitted interaction bias. Moreover, only a few studies make their data publicly available to easily replicate them. Our survey of framing researchers suggests that when scholars successfully publish non-significant effects, these were typically bundled together with other, significant effects to increase publication chances. Finally, using a Bayesian computational sparse regression technique, we offer an illustrative re-analysis of 10 studies focusing on subgroup framing differences by partisanship (a key driver of climate change attitudes) and show that these effects are often not robust when accounting for omitted interaction bias.

The environmental and economic effects of international cooperation on restricting fossil fuel supply

Achieving the Paris Agreement’s global temperature goal of keeping warming well below 2 °C and ideally 1.5 °C requires limiting fossil fuel production. In the United Nations climate change negotiations, this need is only beginning to be acknowledged. Nevertheless, as some countries have already adopted supply-side climate policies, initial cooperative activities have started, and calls grow for a fossil fuel treaty, questions arise about the prospects and possible effects of international cooperation on limiting fossil fuel supply. Combining qualitative insights on possible participants in a supply-side coalition with a quantitative analysis based on integrated assessment general equilibrium modelling, this article addresses these questions. Through k-means clustering based on fossil reserves per capita, fossil fuel rents and existing supply-side policies, we first identify which (groups of) countries are most likely to lead the formation of an international supply-side coalition, and which (groups of) countries are likely to follow. Drawing on these insights, we develop several scenarios for the evolution of international supply-side coalitions and compare these to a business-as-usual scenario. By doing so, we demonstrate the global and regional environmental, trade and macroeconomic effects of international cooperation on limiting fossil fuel supply and combining fossil supply restrictions with carbon pricing to meet the Paris goals. Our findings underscore the importance of pursuing supply-side and ambitious demand-side climate policies in parallel, and identify the scope and coverage, size of the coalition, and incentives for participation as key design elements for an international supply-side coalition.

Policy sequencing can increase public support for ambitious climate policy

Abstract Public support for ambitious climate policies and carbon prices that have direct costs for voters may depend on policy sequencing. Policy sequencing theory suggests that the strategic ordering of policies into sequences that initially create benefits can subsequently increase support for higher carbon prices. However, systematic quantitative evidence about the effects of sequencing on public support is lacking. We provide novel theoretical and empirical insights on the mechanisms through which strategic policy sequencing affects public support for climate policies. We generated these insights using geospatial data and a representative conjoint experiment with Swiss voters conducted just before the popular vote on an amendment to the Federal Act on the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in June 2021. Our evidence shows that the perceived effectiveness of prior policy-induced benefits is related to more public support for higher carbon prices across sectors. Moreover, we find that more opportunity structures for low-emission alternatives—like higher EV charging station density—are associated with increased public support for carbon prices in the sector where the former material benefits occur. Our results also imply that positive policy perceptions of prior climate policies are related to increased support, particularly among conservative voters and those who do not regard climate change as a salient issue. Thus, strategic policy sequencing could be an effective strategy for broadening public support for ambitious climate policies.

Climate change, costs, or jobs: How policymakers frame state clean energy laws

Renewable portfolio standard (RPS) laws are among the most important climate change policies, requiring a minimum percentage of electricity from clean energy sources. From 2015–2022 in the U.S., eleven states enacted 100 % RPS laws and seven others strengthened their targets. This study examines the issue framing behind these recent RPS laws, which reflects and affects the political context surrounding the policies, people's views, and support among stakeholders. Through coding of policy documents, the study evaluates how policymakers have framed the policies, differences in framing between states with 100 % and non-100 % RPS targets, and variation in framing connected with political party and partisan votes. Surprisingly, given recommendations in the literature to downplay climate issues and emphasize economics, lawmakers predominantly framed 100 % clean energy laws based on climate change. Policymakers that adopted non-100 % RPS laws utilized less climate framing and garnered more Republican Party legislator votes. The results indicate a distinction in framing between more modest and ambitious climate policies, raising a question about the applicability of recommendations urging minimization of climate messaging to transformative climate and clean energy policy efforts. Depending on political conditions, climate framing may be effective for ambitious energy approaches.

Wzrastające znaczenie polityki klimatycznej w Unii Europejskiej po wejściu w życie traktatu z Maastricht: główne przyczyny, skutki i wyzwamia

Climate policy is a new area of European integration, although there were no exact references to the issue of climate change in the Maastricht Treaty. However, this article draws attention to the interesting coincidence of the creation of the European Union (EU) in the 1990s and the consequences of the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro which started the process of greening the EU Member States’ foreign policies and enhanced the importance of environmental and climate protection issues on the international agenda. The Member States and EU institutions, acting within the institutional framework defined by the Maastricht Treaty, in the face of the limitations resulting from unanimous voting in taxation policy, started to develop climate policy (in particular, the EU Emissions Trading System), mainly based on environmental law, enabling decisions to be taken by a qualified majority. The growing importance of climate policy in the EU was influenced by many factors and the different motivations of individual Member States and other European policy actors. After depicting the main causes and effects of the growing importance of EU climate policy, the article discusses the most important challenges facing the EU with regard to the implementation of an ambitious climate policy. In recent years, one of the main reasons for this increase is the fact that each of the successive overlapping crises (concerning migration, pandemic, Russia–Ukraine war or spiking energy prices) is a suitable opportunity to strengthen EU climate policy.

Free riding in climate protests

Climate protests are an important driver for ambitious climate policies. However, it is still unknown how individual protest participation decisions depend on each other. Exploiting the unique opportunity of the Third Global Climate Strike, we conducted multi-wave population surveys with 1,510 people in the four largest German cities. With a randomized information intervention, we changed turnout expectations of a subgroup of respondents and measured the impact on the probability to join the local protest event. Our findings provide causal evidence for strategic interdependence in protest participation decisions among members of the general public rather than among a movement’s core group of supporters. These decisions are found to be strategic substitutes: individuals who expect many other people to participate are less likely to participate themselves. This dynamic has important implications for the movement’s future communication and growth perspective.

Climate policy, financial frictions, and transition risk

We study climate and macroprudential policies in an economy with financial frictions. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring both a pollution market failure and a market failure in the financial sector, we explore transition risk – whether ambitious climate policy can lead to macroeconomic instability. It can, but the risk can be alleviated through macroprudential policies – taxes or subsidies on banks' assets. Then, we explore efficient climate and macroprudential policy in the long run and over business cycles. The presence of financial frictions affects the steady-state value and dynamic properties of the efficient carbon tax.

Who’s afraid of more ambitious climate policy? How distributional implications shape policy support and compensatory preferences

ABSTRACT Nation states need to strengthen domestic climate policies to address global climate change. As more ambitious climate policy shapes the material interests of different societal groups, distributional conflict about who wins and loses will likely intensify over the coming years. I use the recent complete revision of the Swiss CO2 law as an example of a change towards more ambitious climate policy and experimentally test whether distributional implications resulting from this policy change affect both people’s policy support and redistributive preferences. I establish that learning about negative impacts on some societal groups significantly decreases support, while information about groups profiting also increases support. Moreover, being informed about the negative consequences of ambitious climate policy makes people more likely to support redistributive schemes, even if they are not personally affected. These results show the centrality of distributional implications for the political feasibility of progressive climate policy.