Abstract
Climate protests are an important driver for ambitious climate policies. However, it is still unknown how individual protest participation decisions depend on each other. Exploiting the unique opportunity of the Third Global Climate Strike, we conducted multi-wave population surveys with 1,510 people in the four largest German cities. With a randomized information intervention, we changed turnout expectations of a subgroup of respondents and measured the impact on the probability to join the local protest event. Our findings provide causal evidence for strategic interdependence in protest participation decisions among members of the general public rather than among a movement’s core group of supporters. These decisions are found to be strategic substitutes: individuals who expect many other people to participate are less likely to participate themselves. This dynamic has important implications for the movement’s future communication and growth perspective.
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