Ambiguous Threat Research Articles

A Fast Seamless Acquisition Algorithm for the CL Code of the L2C Navigation Signal

A new algorithm is proposed for the CL code of the L2C navigation signal. We eliminate the fuzzy search range problem by the segmentation process and superposition process, and we eliminate the fuzzy code phase problem by the parameter adjustment process. It can reduce the ambiguity threat in the acquisition process and that it can adapt to lower SNR. In addition, it outperforms the existing algorithms in acquisition precision, adaptability to SNR, processing speed and complexity.

Are you ready? Crisis leadership in a hyper-VUCA environment.

The current hyper-volatile, -uncertain, -complex, and -ambiguous (VUCA) threat environment demands a more cohesive support structure for crisis leaders who may be faced with crises of increasing magnitude and frequency and, in some instances, multiple crisis events simultaneously. The project team investigates the perceptions of crisis leaders regarding establishing a crisis leader advisor position for crisis leaders to benefit from their experience while prosecuting crisis response activities. The team linked hyper-VUCA crises, crisis response frameworks, meta-leadership, crisis leader attributes, and advisor attributes. The overall goal of the project is to increase the ability of the crisis leaders to more effectively and efficiently navigate crisis events resulting in more efficient and effective response and recovery. Three research questions were developed to assess the following: thoughts of integrating a crisis leader advisor position; development of a crisis leader advisor certification program; and attributes of crisis leader advisors. A qualitative research methodology using a phenomenological approach was employed. Forty-one participants were purposefully selected and administered a short, on-line survey consisting of 11 questions. Data were analyzed using percentage analysis,weighted sums, and inductive thematic analysis. The project team found an overwhelming support for the crisis leader advisor position and the crisis leader advisor certification program. Additionally, experience and trustworthiness ranked among the top sought after attributes of a crisis leader advisor. The team recommendations included (1) implement a crisis leaders advisor guide/framework; (2) create a formal crisis leader advisor position in national incident management system; (3) implement a crisis leader advisor certification framework; (4) benchmark established advisor programs; and (5) implement a framework to match leaders and advisors.

Are you ready? Crisis leadership in a hyper-VUCA environment.

The current hyper-volatile, -uncertain, -complex, and -ambiguous (VUCA) threat environment demands a more cohesive support structure for crisis leaders who may be faced with crises of increasing magnitude and frequency and, in some instances, multiple crisis events simultaneously. The project team investigates the perceptions of crisis leaders regarding establishing a crisis leader advisor position for crisis leaders to benefit from their experience while prosecuting crisis response activities. The team linked hyper-VUCA crises, crisis response frameworks, meta-leadership, crisis leader attributes, and advisor attributes. The overall goal of the project is to increase the ability of the crisis leaders to more effectively and efficiently navigate crisis events resulting in more efficient and effective response and recovery. Three research questions were developed to assess the following: thoughts of integrating a crisis leader advisor position; development of a crisis leader advisor certification program; and attributes of crisis leader advisors. A qualitative research methodology using a phenomenological approach was employed. Forty-one participants were purposefully selected and administered a short, online survey consisting of 11 questions. Data were analyzed using percentage analysis, weighted sums, and inductive thematic analysis. The project team found an overwhelming support for the crisis leader advisor position and the crisis leader advisor certification program. Additionally, experience and trustworthiness ranked among the top sought after attributes of a crisis leader advisor. The team recommendations included (1) implement a crisis leaders advisor guide/framework; (2) create a formal crisis leader advisor position in national incident management system; (3) implement a crisis leader advisor certification framework; (4) benchmark established advisor programs; and (5) implement a framework to match leaders and advisors.

Are you ready? Crisis leadership in a hyper-VUCA environment (Appendix)

The current hyper-volatile, -uncertain, -complex, and -ambiguous (VUCA) threat environment demands a more cohesive support structure for crisis leaders who may be faced with crises of increasing magnitude and frequency and, in some instances, multiple crisis events simultaneously. The project team investigates the perceptions of crisis leaders regarding establishing a crisis leader advisor position for crisis leaders to benefit from their experience while prosecuting crisis response activities. The team linked hyper-VUCA crises, crisis response frameworks, meta-leadership, crisis leader attributes, and advisor attributes. The overall goal of the project is to increase the ability of the crisis leaders to more effectively and efficiently navigate crisis events resulting in more efficient and effective response and recovery. Three research questions were developed to assess the following: thoughts of integrating a crisis leader advisor position; development of a crisis leader advisor certification program; and attributes of crisis leader advisors. A qualitative research methodology using a phenomenological approach was employed. Forty-one participants were purposefully selected and administered a short, on-line survey consisting of 11 questions. Data were analyzed using percentage analysis, weighted sums, and inductive thematic analysis. The project team found an overwhelming support for the crisis leader advisor position and the crisis leader advisor certification program. Additionally, experience and trustworthiness ranked among the top sought after attributes of a crisis leader advisor. The team recommendations included (1) implement a crisis leaders advisor guide/framework; (2) create a formal crisis leader advisor position in national incident management system; (3) implement a crisis leader advisor certification framework; (4) benchmark established advisor programs; and (5) implement a framework to match leaders and advisors.

Are you ready? Crisis leadership in a hyper-VUCA environment.

The current hyper-volatile, -uncertain, -complex, and -ambiguous (VUCA) threat environment demands a more cohesive support structure for crisis leaders who may be faced with crises of increasing magnitude and frequency and, in some instances, multiple crisis events simultaneously. The project team investigates the perceptions of crisis leaders regarding establishing a crisis leader advisor position for crisis leaders to benefit from their experience while prosecuting crisis response activities. The team linked hyper-VUCA crises, crisis response frameworks, meta-leadership, crisis leader attributes, and advisor attributes. The overall goal of the project is to increase the ability of the crisis leaders to more effectively and efficiently navigate crisis events resulting in more efficient and effective response and recovery. Three research questions were developed to assess the following: thoughts of integrating a crisis leader advisor position; development of a crisis leader advisor certification program; and attributes of crisis leader advisors. A qualitative research methodology using a phenomenological approach was employed. Forty-one participants were purposefully selected and administered a short, on-line survey consisting of 11 questions. Data were analyzed using percentage analysis, weighted sums, and inductive thematic analysis. The project team found an overwhelming support for the crisis leader advisor position and the crisis leader advisor certification program. Additionally, experience and trustworthiness ranked among the top sought after attributes of a crisis leader advisor. The team recommendations included (1) implement a crisis leaders advisor guide/framework; (2) create a formal crisis leader advisor position in national incident management system; (3) implement a crisis leader advisor certification framework; (4) benchmark established advisor programs; and (5) implement a framework to match leaders and advisors.

Emergence in extinction of enhanced and persistent responding to ambiguous aversive cues is associated with high MAOA activity in the prelimbic cortex

There is a great deal of individual variability in the emotional outcomes of potentially traumatic events, and the underlying mechanisms are only beginning to be understood. In order to further our understanding of individual trajectories to trauma, its vulnerability and resilience, we adapted a model of fear expression to ambiguous vs perfect cues in adult male rats, and examined long-term fear extinction, 2, 3, and 50 days from acquisition. After the final conditioned fear test, mitochondrial enzyme monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) function was examined. In order to identify associations between this function and behavioral expression, an a posteri median segregation approach was adopted, and animals were classified as high or low responding according to level of freezing to the ambiguous cue at remote testing, long after the initial extinction. Those individuals characterized by their higher response showed a freezing pattern that persisted from their previous extinction sessions, in spite of their acquisition levels being equivalent to the low-freezing group. Furthermore, unlike more adaptive individuals, freezing levels of high-freezing animals even increased at initial extinction, to almost double their acquisition session levels. Controlling for perfect cue response at remote extinction, greater ambiguous threat cue response was associated with enhanced prelimbic cortex MAOA functional activity. These findings underscore MAOA as a potential target for the development of interventions to mitigate the impact of traumatic experiences.

Systemic Risk and Risk Management: Overview and Approach

This paper is a compilation and expansion of two earlier papers, one on systemic risk and the other on strategic risk management. Part 1 of the paper proposes a definition and assessment methodology for systemic financial risk that was inspired by systems accident research. Sociologist Charles Perrow found that industrial, aviation and marine systems are prone to failure if those systems are interactively complex and tightly coupled. Using that framework as a starting point, financial crisis research led to the definition of systemic financial risk as a function of financial complexity and excessive leverage. The paper presents practical criteria for applying these parameters, and then profiles the triggering mechanism of systemic financial risk — financial contagion — in a behavioral context consistent with my framework. Part 2 of the paper presents an approach for identifying the weak signals of developing ambiguous threats, such as systemic financial risk manifestation, as well as an approach for economically managing the risk of enterprise-threatening loss. Both parts of the paper are readily assessable to a broad array of financial agents and researchers.

Special Operations Forces in the Gray Zone: An Operational Framework for Using Special Operations Forces in the Space Between War and Peace

In September of 2015, the United States Special Operations Command published a report on the challenges presented by hostile adversarial actions that exist outside of the “traditional peace/war duality.” Yet neither that paper nor subsequent treatments of the subject address the central question of when and how to employ the most innovative, subtle, and adaptable instruments of national power—special operations forces—in these ambiguous threat environments. This article provides an initial inquiry into this question. After discussing the inadequacy of current operational models to address “gray zone” challenges (however loosely defined), the article introduces and uses an alternative model to illuminate the utility of special operations forces power at various points on the escalatory spectrum. The paper closes with additional questions to spur further research and a synopsis that addresses the implications of the model to the United States’ overall approach to gray zone competition.

Dysfunctional Freezing Responses to Approaching Stimuli in Persons with a Looming Cognitive Style for Physical Threats.

Immobilizing freezing responses are associated with anxiety and may be etiologically related to several anxiety disorders. Although recent studies have sought to investigate the underlying mechanisms in freezing responses that are so problematic in many forms of anxiety, cognitive factors related to anxiety have not been investigated. This study was designed to investigate the potential moderating role of a well-documented cognitive vulnerability to anxiety, the Looming Cognitive Style (i.e., LCS; Riskind et al., 2000), which assesses the extent to which individuals tend to routinely interpret ambiguous threats (e.g., physical or social threats) in a biased manner as approaching. We assessed participants' Reaction Times (RTs) when they made judgments about images of animals that differed in threat valence (threat or neutral) and motion direction (approach or recede). As expected, LCS for concerns about the approach of physical dangers appeared to moderate freeze reactions. Individuals who were high on this LCS factor tended to generally exhibit a freeze-response (slower RTs) and this was independent of the threat valence or motion direction of the animals. These general freezing reactions were in stark contrast to those of individuals who were low on the LCS factor for concerns about the approach of physical dangers. These participants tended to exhibit more selective and functional freezing responses that occurred only to threatening animals with approach motion; they did not exhibit freezing to neutral stimuli or any stimuli with receding motion. These findings did not appear to be explicable by a general slowing of RTs for the participants with high LCS. Moreover, the LCS factor for concerns about social threats (such as rejection or embarrassment) was not related to differences in freezing; there was also no additional relationship of freezing to behavioral inhibition scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System and the Behavioral Activation System Scales (BIS/BAS). It may prove fruitful to further explore cognitive factors related to anxiety to develop a more comprehensive understanding of how these factors are associated with anxiety-related freezing responses.

An Unambiguous Deterministic Compressed Acquisition Technique for BOC Signal

The long PN code in a Binary Offset Carrier (BOC) modulated signal has a higher rate than the GPS C/A code, which makes the acquisition process in the new global navigation satellite system (GNSS) much more complex. To achieve a fast acquisition of the GNSS signal with a reduced number of correlators and low computational complexity, a two-stage deterministic compressed (DS) GNSS acquisition technique has been proposed. Nevertheless, the ambiguous threat of BOC signal isn’t taken into account in the DS technique. To eliminate the ambiguity threat in the acquisition process of BOC (m, n) signal, an unambiguous deterministic compressed acquisition is proposed in this paper. The main idea of the proposed technique is to introduce a simplified GRASS algorithm in the second stage measurement. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, at the expense of some performance degradation the proposed technique can completely remove the undesired positive side peaks of BOC (m, n) signal, and reduce the chance of false peak acquisition compared with the DS technique.

Intolerance of Uncertainty Is Associated With Increased Threat Appraisal and Negative Affect Under Ambiguity but Not Uncertainty

Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) has gained increasing interest as a vulnerability factor for worry in Generalized Anxiety Disorder and other emotional disorders. We extended the procedure of Grupe and Nitschke (2011) to compare threat processing in High IU (n=29) and Low IU (n=26) participants. Participants viewed four cues: two reference cues that preceded aversive pictures on 100% or 0% of trials, and a target cue that preceded aversive pictures on 50% of trials (Uncertain condition). Participants were instructed about these probabilities in advance. In addition, we surprised participants with a second target cue that also preceded aversive pictures on 50% of trials but that had not been mentioned in the instructions (Ambiguous condition). Results provided preliminary evidence that High IU participants showed greater online threat expectancy, postexperimental covariation estimates and negative mood for the target cues compared to the reference cues. The results also suggest that among high IU individuals, ambiguity, rather than uncertainty per se, may be a particularly powerful trigger for biased threat appraisal and negative affect. Clinically, the results suggest that patients with high IU may benefit from interventions to help them calibrate the degree of risk in situations involving ambiguous threat.

Unambiguous Acquisition/Tracking Technique for High-Order Sine-Phased Binary Offset Carrier Modulated Signal

The binary offset carrier (BOC) modulated signals have been widely employed in global navigation satellite systems due to its outstanding performance. The BOC signal can share frequency spectrum with traditional BPSK signal, meanwhile provide better code tracking accuracy. However, the multiple peaks auto-correlation function of BOC signal results in the acquisition and tracking ambiguity problem. Several methods have been proposed to remove the ambiguity, but they mainly focus on the low modulation order BOC signal, and not efficient enough for high-order BOC signal. In this paper, we propose an unambiguous acquisition/tracking technique for high-order sine-phased BOC signal. The key of this technique is to design a new local auxiliary signal. With the help of the cross-correlation function between the BOC signal and the local auxiliary signal, we obtain a combined correlation function without major positive side peaks. The proposed acquisition and tracking schemes are presented. The theoretical false alarm and detection performance are given, and the theoretical code tracking error in thermal noise is derived. The performance of the proposed method is analyzed by theory and simulation. Results show that for high-order sine-BOC signal, the proposed technique can remove the ambiguity threat. Compared with the existing methods, our method has a significant improvement in terms of acquisition sensitivity and code tracking performance.

Processing of different types of social threat in shyness: Preliminary findings of distinct functional neural connectivity

Current theory suggests that the processing of different types of threat is supported by distinct neural networks. Here we tested whether there are distinct neural correlates associated with different types of threat processing in shyness. Using fMRI and multivariate techniques, we compared neural responses and functional connectivity during the processing of imminent (i.e., congruent angry/angry face pairs) and ambiguous (i.e., incongruent angry/neutral face pairs) social threat in young adults selected for high and low shyness. To both types of threat processing, non-shy adults recruited a right medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) network encompassing nodes of the default mode network involved in automatic emotion regulation, whereas shy adults recruited a right dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) network encompassing nodes of the frontoparietal network that instantiate active attentional and cognitive control. Furthermore, in shy adults, the mPFC interacted with the dACC network for ambiguous threat, but with a distinct network encompassing nodes of the salience network for imminent threat. These preliminary results expand our understanding of right mPFC function associated with temperamental shyness. They also provide initial evidence for differential neural networks associated with shy and non-shy profiles in the context of different types of social threat processing.

Interpretive bias, repressive coping, and trait anxiety

Objectives: According to vigilance–avoidance theory, repressors have an avoidant interpretive bias, i.e., they interpret ambiguous self-relevant situations in a nonthreatening fashion. This study sought to demarcate the range of situations associated with avoidant interpretive bias in repressors. Design: Four groups of participants, representing the four combinations of low- and high-trait anxiety and defensiveness, were identified. Those low in trait anxiety and high in defensiveness were categorized as repressors. Methods: Participants (N = 163) rated their likelihood of making both threatening and nonthreatening interpretations of 32 ambiguous scenarios over four domains: social, intellectual, physical, and health. Half the scenarios were self-relevant and half were other relevant. Brief measures of state anxiety were taken after each likelihood rating. Results: Repressors displayed an avoidant interpretive bias for ambiguous threats in the social and intellectual domains but not the health or physical domains. This was due to repressors' low level of trait anxiety rather than their high defensiveness. Conclusions: Individuals high in trait anxiety are especially sensitive to situations involving social evaluation but not those characterized by danger to their health or physical well-being.

A leader’s guide to strategic risk management

Purpose – Many firms did not have mechanisms in place prior to 2007 to identify and track the weak signals of an impending financial crisis, and as a result they were not prepared for the stresses and opportunities the crisis generated. The author aims to offer a guide to identifying these weak signals and a system for mitigating the risk of being hurt by another such crisis. Design/methodology/approach – This is a guide to strategic risk management (SRM), which defines a process of identifying, assessing and economically managing potentially enterprise-threatening losses. It is a way to mitigate developing ambiguous threats before they manifest themselves and then spiral out of control. Findings – Corporate leaders can follow the example of savvy investors who use risk management insights to mitigate the effects of a potential crisis and to profit from one if it develops. Practical implications – Market pressures can cause firms to loosen product or investment standards incrementally, which over time can radically change a business model’s risk profile without anyone acting to mitigate it. Originality/value – This guide to Strategic Risk Management provides insight into how corporate leaders can identify the “weak signals” of a financial crisis well before the actual crisis develops and also describes how they can mitigate financial risk in their portfolios and make opportunistic investments and adopt hedging strategies at very favorable price levels.

A New Acquisition Algorithm with Elimination Side Peak for All BOC Signals

A new inhibition side peak acquisition (ISPA) algorithm is proposed for binary offset carrier (BOC) modulated signals, which will be utilized in global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). We eliminate all side peaks of the BOC correlation function (CF) by structuring special sequences composed of PRN code and cycle rectangular sequences. The new algorithm can be applied to both generic sine- and cosine-phased BOC signals, as well as to all modulation orders. Theoretical and simulation results demonstrate that the new algorithm can completely eliminate the ambiguity threat in the acquisition process, and it can adapt to lower SNR. In addition, this algorithm is better than the traditional algorithms in acquisition performance and inhibition side peak ability.

Effects of social exclusion on emotions and oxytocin and cortisol levels in patients with chronic depression

ObjectivePatients with chronic depression (CD) experience a high burden of disease, severe co-morbidity, and increased mortality. Although interpersonal dysfunction is a hallmark of CD, the underlying mechanisms are largely unexplored. Oxytocin (OT) has been proposed to play a crucial role in the social deficits of mental disorders and has been found to be dysregulated after social exclusion (ostracism) in patients with borderline personality disorder. This study investigated how social exclusion affects emotions, OT levels, and cortisol (CT) levels in CD patients. MethodTwenty-one patients diagnosed with CD and 21 healthy controls (HC) matched for gender, age, and education underwent repeated neuroendocrine measurements in a standardized laboratory setting while playing Cyberball, a virtual ball-tossing game that mimics a social exclusion situation. Emotional reactions, plasma OT and cortisol levels were assessed at baseline and 5, 15, and 40 min after Cyberball. ResultsAt baseline, there were no group differences in OT levels. Immediately after playing Cyberball, plasma OT levels showed divergent changes in CD patients and HC; the difference in direction of change was significant with a reduction in CD patients compared to HC (p = .035*); CT levels did not differ between groups at any time point, but decreased over time. Patients showed more threatened emotional needs and increased negative emotions, especially anger and resentment, and showed higher sensitivity to ambiguous threat of social exclusion than healthy controls. ConclusionsCD patients react to ostracism with pronounced negative emotions. The reduction in OT levels in CD patients after social exclusion may contribute to their interpersonal dysfunction and their difficulty in coping adequately with aversive social cues.

Maladaptive social information processing in childhood predicts young men's atypical amygdala reactivity to threat.

Maladaptive social information processing, such as hostile attributional bias and aggressive response generation, is associated with childhood maladjustment. Although social information processing problems are correlated with heightened physiological responses to social threat, few studies have examined their associations with neural threat circuitry, specifically amygdala activation to social threat. A cohort of 310 boys participated in an ongoing longitudinal study and completed questionnaires and laboratory tasks assessing their social and cognitive characteristics the boys were between 10 and 12 years of age. At age 20, 178 of these young men underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging and a social threat task. At age 22, adult criminal arrest records and self-reports of impulsiveness were obtained. Path models indicated that maladaptive social information-processing at ages 10 and 11 predicted increased left amygdala reactivity to fear faces, an ambiguous threat, at age 20 while accounting for childhood antisocial behavior, empathy, IQ, and socioeconomic status. Exploratory analyses indicated that aggressive response generation - the tendency to respond to threat with reactive aggression - predicted left amygdala reactivity to fear faces and was concurrently associated with empathy, antisocial behavior, and hostile attributional bias, whereas hostile attributional bias correlated with IQ. Although unrelated to social information-processing problems, bilateral amygdala reactivity to anger faces at age 20 was unexpectedly predicted by low IQ at age 11. Amygdala activation did not mediate associations between social information processing and number of criminal arrests, but both impulsiveness at age 22 and arrests were correlated with right amygdala reactivity to anger facial expressions at age 20. Childhood social information processing and IQ predicted young men's amygdala response to threat a decade later, which suggests that childhood social-cognitive characteristics are associated with the development of neural threat processing and adult adjustment.

Moderate threat causes longer lasting disruption to processing in anxious individuals.

Anxiety is associated with increased attentional capture by threat. Previous studies have used simultaneous or briefly separated (<1 s) presentation of threat distractors and target stimuli. Here, we tested the hypothesis that high trait anxious participants would show a longer time window within which distractors cause disruption to subsequent task processing, and that this would particularly be observed for stimuli of moderate or ambiguous threat value. A novel temporally separated emotional distractor task was used. Face or house distractors were presented for 250 ms at short (∼1.6 s) or long (∼3 s) intervals prior to a letter string comprising Xs or Ns. Trait anxiety was associated with slowed identification of letter strings presented at long intervals after face distractors with part surprise/part fear expressions. In other words, these distractors had an impact on high anxious individuals’ speed of target identification seconds after their offset. This was associated with increased activity in the fusiform gyrus and amygdala and reduced dorsal anterior cingulate recruitment. This pattern of activity may reflect impoverished recruitment of reactive control mechanisms to damp down stimulus-specific processing in subcortical and higher visual regions. These findings have implications for understanding how threat-related attentional biases in anxiety may lead to dysfunction in everyday settings where stimuli of moderate, potentially ambiguous, threat value such as those used here are fairly common, and where attentional disruption lasting several seconds may have a profound impact.

Estradiol regulates responsiveness of the dorsal premammillary nucleus of the hypothalamus and affects fear- and anxiety-like behaviors in female rats.

Research suggests a causal link between estrogens and mood. Here, we began by examining the effects of estradiol (E2 ) on rat innate and conditioned defensive behaviors in response to cat odor. Second, we utilized whole-cell patch clamp electrophysiological techniques to assess noradrenergic effects on neurons within the dorsal premammillary nucleus of the hypothalamus (PMd), a nucleus implicated in fear reactivity, and their regulation by E2 . Our results show that E2 increased general arousal and modified innate defensive reactivity to cat odor. When ovariectomized females treated with E2 as opposed to oil were exposed to cat odor, they showed elevations in risk assessment and reductions in freezing, indicating a shift from passive to active coping. In addition, animals previously exposed to cat odor showed clear cue + context conditioning 24h later. However, although E2 persisted in its effects on general arousal in the conditioning task, its effects on fear disappeared. In the patch clamp experiments noradrenergic compounds that typically induce fear clearly excited PMd neurons, producing depolarizations and action potentials. E2 treatment shifted some excitatory effects of noradrenergic agonists to inhibitory, possibly by differentially affecting α- and β-adrenoreceptors. In summary, our results implicate E2 in general arousal and fear reactivity, and suggest these may be governed by changes in noradrenergic responsivity in the PMd. These effects of E2 may have ethological relevance, serving to promote mate seeking even in contexts of ambiguous threat and shed light on the involvement of estrogen in mood and its associated disorders.