Ambiguous Decision Research Articles

At-Sea Evaluation of an Underwater Vehicle Behavior for Passive Target Tracking

In this paper, we describe an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) behavior designed to track nearby vessels using bearing-only measurements obtained from a rigidly mounted planar hydrophone array-one that was originally designed for active sonar use but is repurposed for passive sonar use. Upon detecting a target, a maneuver is executed to resolve the port/starboard bearing ambiguity. The maneuver is heuristically designed with the aim of reducing the effects of end-fire, self-noise during maneuvers, and other noise/spurious measurements on the bearing ambiguity decision. After resolving the bearing ambiguity, the vehicle continuously adjusts its heading to track the target by keeping it broadside to the array. The performance of this behavior, as well as that of the passive sonar itself, is evaluated through field trials in the approaches to Boston Harbor using a Bluefin-21 UUV. In total, 19 successful behavior tests are described where the UUV resolves the bearing ambiguity and tracks either a static source emitting a predefined waveform or the platform noise of a medium-sized catamaran underway.

대학생의 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족과 진로 결정 관련 모호함에 대한 인내력의 관계 : 멘토링 기능에 의해 조절된 걱정의 매개 효과

본 연구는 대학생들의 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족과 진로 결정 관련 모호함에 대한 인내력의 관계에서 멘토링 기능에 의해 조절된 걱정의 매개 효과를 알아보고자 하였다. 대학생 382명을 대상으로 자기보고식 설문을 실시하였으며, 수집된 자료를 바탕으로 조절된 매개 효과 분석을 실시하였다. 분석 결과, 첫째, 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족과 진로 결정 관련 모호함에 대한 인내력의 관계에서 걱정은 간접 매개 효과를 보였다. 둘째, 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족과 진로 결정 관련 모호함에 대한 인내력의 관계에서 멘토링 기능에 의해 조절된 걱정의 매개 효과가 확인되었다. 종합하면, 한국 대학생들은 불확실성에 대한 인내력이 부족할수록 걱정을 많이 하게 됨으로써 진로 결정과 관련된 모호함을 견디기 어려워하게 되는데, 이러한 부정적 영향은 멘토링 기능 수준이 높을수록 줄어든다는 것을 의미한다. 연구 결과를 토대로 진로 상담 장면에서의 적용 가능성과 본 연구의 제한점 및 후속 연구에 대한 제언을 논의하였다.

Career Indecision Profile–Short: Reliability and Validity Among Employees and Measurement Invariance Across Students and Employees

While the Career Indecision Profile–Short (CIP-Short) has demonstrated sound reliability and validity as a brief measure of career indecision in students, its psychometric performance in employees remains unclear. To facilitate research and practice on career indecision within the employee population, the present study examined the internal consistency reliability, structural validity, and convergent validity of the CIP-Short in employees. Additionally, the present study examined the measurement invariance of the CIP-Short across students and employees. Based on a sample of students ( n = 330) and a sample of employees ( n = 436), the results revealed that (1) the CIP-Short demonstrated good internal consistency reliability in employees, (2) the CIP-Short validly measured the four-factor structure of career indecision in employees, (3) the CIP-Short was positively associated with career decision ambiguity aversion and negatively associated with career adaptability in employees, and (4) the CIP-Short demonstrated measurement invariance on configural, metric, and scalar levels across students and employees. The theoretical and practical implications of this study are discussed, along with limitations and suggestions for future research.

A Neurocognitive Perspective on the Forms and Functions of Autobiographical Memory Retrieval.

Autobiographical memory retrieval involves constructing mental representations of personal past episodes by associating together an array of details related to the retrieved event. This construction process occurs flexibly so that the event details can be associated together in different ways during retrieval. Here, we propose that differences in how this association occurs support a division in autobiographical remembering. We first review theories of autobiographical memory organization that suggest that episodic details of an experience are processed along a gradient of abstraction. This organization allows for the same autobiographical event to be recalled as either a conceptualized or perceptually-based episodic memory. We then use neuroimaging evidence to show how this division within episodic autobiographical memory is also present in the brain, both at a network level and within the hippocampus. Specifically, we suggest that the anterior and posterior hippocampus are obligatorily tuned towards constructing conceptual vs. perceptual episodic representations of autobiographical memories. Finally, we discuss the directive purpose of this proposed division of episodic remembering by reviewing decision scenarios that benefit from recalling the past as a conceptual vs. a perceptual episode. Conceptual remembering is useful to guide ambiguous decisions that have yet to be encountered whereas perceptual remembering is useful to guide decisions for well-structured tasks that have been previously experienced. We emphasize that the ability to shift between conceptual and perceptual forms of remembering, by virtue of hippocampal specialization, during decision-making and other memory-guided actions is the key to adaptive behavior.

Evaluation of rock burst intensity based on annular grey target decision-making model with variable weight

Rock burst is a dynamic and complex phenomenon caused by numerous factors in underground excavating. It is very difficult to make evaluations accurately, especially under incomplete information. In this paper, a methodology for rock burst intensity evaluation is proposed based on grey target decision-making theory and variable weight synthesis thought. Some main factors that influence rock burst intensity are systematically analyzed to establish the evaluation index system. A balance function is introduced to investigate the variability of attribute weight, and then the weights of contribution factors are determined by utilizing variable weight synthesis, in conjunction with grey entropy algorithm. With respect to incomplete information in reality, the annular grey target theory is first proposed to address risk level of rock burst. Different distribution sets of bull’s eye distance are constructed to quantitatively represent corresponding intensity degree. Eventually, the application and performance comparison are carried out to demonstrate the feasibility and precision of the proposed model. It is demonstrated that the outcomes of the proposed model completely coincide with actual states. Compared with rough set theory and Russenes criterion, the proposed model can efficiently reduce decision ambiguity and produce a distinct risk measurement. It provides a new resolution for the research of rock burst evaluation under limited data.

Learning Invariant Features in Modulatory Networks through Conflict and Ambiguity.

This work lays the foundation for a framework of cortical learning based on the idea of a competitive column, which is inspired by the functional organization of neurons in the cortex. A column describes a prototypical organization for neurons that gives rise to an ability to learn scale, rotation, and translation-invariant features. This is empowered by a recently developed learning rule, conflict learning, which enables the network to learn over both driving and modulatory feedforward, feedback, and lateral inputs. The framework is further supported by introducing both a notion of neural ambiguity and an adaptive threshold scheme. Ambiguity, which captures the idea that too many decisions lead to indecision, gives the network a dynamic way to resolve locally ambiguous decisions. The adaptive threshold operates over multiple timescales to regulate neural activity under the varied arrival timings of input in a highly interconnected multilayer network with feedforward and feedback. The competitive column architecture is demonstrated on a large-scale (54,000 neurons and 18 million synapses), invariant model of border ownership. The model is trained on four simple, fixed-scale shapes: two squares, one rectangle, and one symmetric L-shape. Tested on 1899 synthetic shapes of varying scale and complexity, the model correctly assigned border ownership with 74% accuracy. The model's abilities were also illustrated on contours of objects taken from natural images. Combined with conflict learning, the competitive column and ambiguity give a better intuitive understanding of how feedback, modulation, and inhibition may interact in the brain to influence activation and learning.

Career Decision Ambiguity Tolerance of Asian Men in the United States

Asian men in the United States often face race-based occupational segregation and gender-role pressure. Career decision ambiguity tolerance (CDAT) can be a source of psychological adaptation in these individuals’ complex contexts. We conducted a cluster analysis to investigate the CDAT profiles among the sample of Asian men and their associations with adherence to Asian cultural values and masculine norms, racial occupational barriers, and subjective well-being. Results showed that the participants who were more tolerant of career decision ambiguity tended to engage more in career behaviors and show higher psychological well-being. Participants who were more anxious about career decision ambiguity showed higher adherence to Asian cultural values and some traditional masculine norms. The results may indicate higher career intervention needs of Asian men with stronger adherence to traditional cultural and gender norms at the face of unpredictable career decision-making.

Outcome-Weighted Learning for Personalized Medicine with Multiple Treatment Options.

To achieve personalized medicine, an individualized treatment strategy assigning treatment based on an individual's characteristics that leads to the largest benefit can be considered. Recently, a machine learning approach, O-learning, has been proposed to estimate an optimal individualized treatment rule (ITR), but it is developed to make binary decisions and thus limited to compare two treatments. When many treatment options are available, existing methods need to be adapted by transforming a multiple treatment selection problem into multiple binary treatment selections, for example, via one-vs-one or one-vs-all comparisons. However, combining multiple binary treatment selection rules into a single decision rule requires careful consideration, because it is known in the multicategory learning literature that some approaches may lead to ambiguous decision rules. In this work, we propose a novel and efficient method to generalize outcome-weighted learning for binary treatment to multi-treatment settings. We solve a multiple treatment selection problem via sequential weighted support vector machines. We prove that the resulting ITR is Fisher consistent and obtain the convergence rate of the estimated value function to the true optimal value, i.e., the estimated treatment rule leads to the maximal benefit when the data size goes to infinity. We conduct simulations to demonstrate that the proposed method has superior performance in terms of lower mis-allocation rates and improved expected values. An application to a three-arm randomized trial of major depressive disorder shows that an ITR tailored to individual patient's expectancy of treatment efficacy, their baseline depression severity and other characteristics reduces depressive symptoms more than non-personalized treatment strategies (e.g., treating all patients with combined pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy).

The comparison of risky and ambiguity decision making and cool executive functions between patients with obsessive compulsive disorder and healthy controls

Background: Executive functioning has been evaluated in obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD). Cool and hot executive functioning discrimination provided a different way of conceptualising executive functions. Objectives: The aim of this study was to compare ambiguity and risky decision-making and cool executive functions in an OCD and a healthy control group. The relationship between decision-making and cool executive functioning was investigated. Methods: Sixty-two OCD patients and 48 healthy control participants were compared. Decision-making was measured using the Iowa Gambling Task. The cool executive functioning was assessed using the Stroop Test and the Wisconsin Card Sorting Task (WCST). Results: The OCD group completed the WCST and the Stroop Test statistically significantly with a lower score than that of the control group. The OCD group had impaired response inhibition and set-shifting that indicate impaired cool executive functioning. In contrast to a lack of a statistically significant difference, the risky decision-making performance was worse in the OCD group than in the healthy control group and in the unmedicated OCD patients than in the medicated OCD patients. Discussion: The OCD patients had a poorer performance in risky decision-making and cool executive functioning. There was a link between risky decision-making performance and impaired cool executive functions.

Gaming the Heart of Darkness

The history of Joseph Conrad’s Heart of Darkness has been one of adaptation and change. The enduring story is based upon Conrad’s experiences in the Congo in the 1890s and was published as a novella in 1902. Since then, the story has been criticised for racism by Nigerian writer Chinua Achebe and relocated to Vietnam by Francis Ford Coppola as Apocalypse Now, influencing computer games such as Far Cry 2 and Spec Ops: The Line. In examining the adaptations of Heart of Darkness, we can consider how the story evolves from the passive reading of post-colonial narratives through to the active participation in morally ambiguous decisions and virtual war crimes through digital games: examining Conrad’s story as it has been adapted for other mediums provides a unique lens in which to view storytelling and retelling within the context of how we interpret the world. This paper compares the source material to its adaptations, considering the blending of historical fact and original fiction, the distortion of the original story for the purpose of creating new meaning, and reflects on whether interactivity impacts upon the feeling of immersion and sense of responsibility in audiences of different narratives.

Conditional expected utility criteria for decision making under ignorance or objective ambiguity

We provide an axiomatic characterization of a family of criteria for ranking completely uncertain and/or ambiguous decisions. A completely uncertain decision is described by the set of all its consequences (assumed to be finite). An ambiguous decision is described as a set of possible probability distributions over a set of prizes. Every criterion in the family compares sets on the basis of their conditional expected utility , for some “likelihood” function taking strictly positive values and some utility function both having the universe of alternatives as their domain.

Testosterone Levels in Third Trimester in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: Odense Child Cohort.

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is characterized by hyperandrogenism. In pregnancy, testosterone levels may be higher in women with PCOS compared with controls. To compare total testosterone (TT), free testosterone (FT), and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) levels in third-trimester pregnant women with PCOS and controls and to establish reference ranges for TT, FT, and SHBG in PCOS and controls. The study was part of the prospective study, Odense Child Cohort. PCOS was diagnosed by questionnaires and/or patient records. Fasting blood samples were collected at gestational week 28 and plasma TT was measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in women with PCOS (n = 145) and in women without PCOS (controls, n = 1341). Levels of TT (mean, 2.4 vs 2.0 nmol/L) and FT (mean, 0.005 vs 0.004 nmol/L) were higher, whereas SHBG levels (mean, 447 vs 477 nmol/L) were lower in women with PCOS vs controls (all P < 0.001). Reference intervals for TT, FT, and SHBG in women with PCOS and controls were overlapping, and partitioning of reference intervals was an ambiguous decision. In multiple regression analyses, TT and FT levels were positively associated with PCOS status and BMI and inversely associated with age and parity. Offspring sex did not predict maternal TT and FT. TT and FT levels were higher in third-trimester pregnant women with PCOS compared with controls. Separate reference interval for FT in women with PCOS should be considered.

Accounting for ambiguity and trust in partial outsourcing: A behavioral real options perspective

Concerned with the hidden costs of outsourcing, this paper examines the role of ambiguity and trust in partial outsourcing decisions from the perspective of real options theory. We study pricing and quantity dynamics between an ambiguity averse vendor and a less (more) trusting client in a leader-follower framework with fixed timing. We find that a client's partial outsourcing quantity increases with the vendor's ambiguity if outsourcing is meant for cost-saving purposes. Meanwhile, the effect of trust on outsourcing quantity is jointly moderated by the vendor's ambiguity and quality of shared information forecasts when cost advantages are exaggerated. In terms of pricing effects, the vendor increases (decreases) their threshold with increasing ambiguity for long-term (short-term) contracts. These insights hold under the multiple-priors and worst-case ambiguity specification. When Choquet ambiguity and rank-dependent utility are considered, more complex and subtle dynamics are obtained. Ambiguity has additional non-linear effects on outsourcing quantity due to heterogeneity in ambiguity preferences (seeking versus aversion) and probability weighting. The vendor's price not only increases (decreases) with increasing ambiguity-seeking for long-term (short-term) contracts, but also with ambiguity aversion when specific risk-return conditions are met. Trust effects are qualitatively similar under both ambiguity specifications.

UNDERSTANDING HOW PRIMARY CARE CLINICIANS MAKE SENSE OF CHRONIC PAIN.

Chronic pain leads to reduced quality of life for patients, and strains health systems worldwide. In the U.S. and some other countries, the complexities of caring for chronic pain are exacerbated by individual and public health risks associated with commonly used opioid analgesics. To help understand and improve pain care, this article uses the data-frame theory of sensemaking to explore how primary care clinicians in the U.S. manage their patients with chronic noncancer pain. We conducted Critical Decision Method interviews with 10 primary care clinicians about 30 individual patients with chronic pain. In these interviews, we identified several patient, social/environmental, and clinician factors that influence the frames clinicians use to assess their patients and determine a pain management plan. Findings suggest significant ambiguity and uncertainty in clinical pain management decision making. Therefore, interventions to improve pain care might focus on supporting sensemaking in the context of clinical evidence rather than attempting to provide clinicians with decontextualized and/or algorithm-based decision rules. Interventions might focus on delivering convenient and easily interpreted patient and social/environmental information in the context of clinical practice guidelines.

ALGORITHM FOR SELECTION OF LAUNCH ELEMENTS IN THE PRESENCE OF A PRIORI INFORMATION ABOUT ITS COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE

Traditional methods of the theory of statistical solutions are developed for cases of making single-valued two-alternative or multialternative solutions about the class of an object. Assuming the possibility of ambiguous multi-alternative (in the case of solving the problem of selection of space objects of three-alternative) decisions on the classification of of space objects at the stages of the selection process, a modification of the traditional statistical decision making algorithm is required. Such a modification of the algorithm can be carried out by appropriate selection of the loss function. In the framework of the Bayes approach, an additive loss function is proposed, the structure of which takes into account a priori information on the structure and composition of launch elements in relation to the classes «Launch vehicle» and «spacecraft». The algorithm of decision making is synthesized under the conditions of a priori certainty regarding the probabilistic description of the analyzed situation. It is shown that the problem of verifying three-alternative hypotheses can be reduced to an independent verification of three two-alternative hypotheses, which makes it possible to take particular solutions in the solution process and use a different set of the signs of selection for the formation of solutions for individual classes of space objects. The peculiarities of the implementation of the selection algorithm are discussed in the presence of a priori information and measurement information on starts of a limited volume. The synthesized Bayesian decision making algorithm has the properties necessary to solve the problem of selection of space objects at launch in real conditions in the presence of measuring information specified in the form of a training sample. Its architecture allows to form unambiguous and ambiguous decisions about each space object in the launch.

«Revolutionary аttitude» in the context of the system-synergistic approach (M. Azuela «The Underdogs», I. Babel «Red Cavalry»)

The present article is devoted to the expediency of using a system-synergistic approach to M. Azuela and I. Babel’s works. Thus, the novels «The Underdogs», (M. Azuela) and «Red Cavalry» (I. Babel), devoted to the revolution and civil war, are to explore within the framework of the synergistic concept of chaos. Nowadays synergetics is beyond the scope of its primary attraction field and the expediency of this method in the humanitarian knowledge puts it in the category of the latest paradigms of modern science. Such an approach allows making a research at the interdisciplinary level, that is, due to the «cooperative effect» to reveal the general nature of the world perception. One of the main contradictions underlying the synergistic approach is the dialectical unity of order and chaos in the process of system existence. During the time of social, political and economic changes the dynamics of systems contains an increasing share of uncertainty (periods of chaotic behavior). Significantly, the revolutionary impulse depicted in M. Azuela’s work «The Underdogs» and I. Babel’s «Red Cavalry», is the stage of bifurcation, but the chaos created near the bifurcation point does not mean that the order disappears; it means that the process dynamics becomes unpredictable. The existing system goes into a stage of crisis, characterized by a violation of stability and imbalance. In M. Azuela’s work it is a spontaneous struggle of one of the revolution detachments, in I. Babel’s work – reality, covered by the chaos of the civil war. The person, who is immersed in a situation of chaos, is pursued with multi-vector and ambiguity of decisions. The process of choosing a path (attractor) is related to internal searches, and the solution is the result of doubt and contradiction. It is proved that this method of analysis makes it possible to show dissipative processes in a nonlinear environment and to recreate the patterns of behavior of the character in the situation of transition from order to chaos and vice versa. The patterns of characters’ behavior at the stage of the bifurcation are revealed in two hypostases: the chaos of reality (meaningless destruction, cruelty, aggression); the chaos of ideology and morals («confused person», experiencing a «breakdown of consciousness»).

A model for supplier evaluation and selection based on integrated interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS approach

Today, the global market is confronted with short-lifecycle products or highly demanding customers that calls a lot of focus on supply chain. Among the activities of the supply chain, activities of effective purchasing are the most important activity to proper selection of suppliers since of supplier evaluation and selection problem is a multi-criteria decision-making problem that is along with high degree of ambiguity and uncertainty in the real world decision making. Since the information on real world decision-making are often imprecise and expressed verbally therefore the fuzzy sets theory can be effectively used to solve such problems. This paper first provides an overview on the supplier evaluation and selection problem, and then presents a decision making model that integrates interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy AHP (IVIF-AHP) and interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy TOPSIS (IVIF-TOPSIS) to solve such problems, and in the end, provides a numerical example to demonstrate the use of the proposed approach.

The Influence of Psychological Distance on Ambiguity Decision Making: A Perspective Based on the Construal Level Theory

Based on the construal level theory, this paper investigates the influence of different dimensions of psychological distance on the ambiguity decision making. Based on the four dimensions of psychological distance, this paper uses single factor within-subjects experiment design and randomly assigns subjects into each dimension to participate in the experimental manipulation so as to test whether different psychological distance dimensions have an influence on the ambiguity decision making. The results show that, under the conditions of time distance, space distance, social distance and probability, the closer the psychological distance is to decision making, the lower the construal level for the decision event or the object, thereby more inclined to ambiguity avoidance. Thus, the closer the psychological distance of decision event is, the higher degree of the individual’s ambiguity avoidance.

Career Decision Ambiguity Tolerance and Career Decision-Making Difficulties in a French Sample: The Mediating Role of Career Decision Self-Efficacy

In the current work, we investigated the relationship between career decision ambiguity tolerance (CDAT) and career decision-making difficulties among French-speaking university students. In a preliminary validation study ( N = 246), we examined the psychometric properties of the CDAT Scale. Our results showed that the French CDAT Scale had satisfactory levels of scale score reliability, that its factor structure was consistent with the original three-factor structure, and that it had incremental predictive power over general ambiguity tolerance when predicting career decision self-efficacy and career adaptability. In a second study ( N = 412), building on social cognitive career theory, we hypothesized that career decision self-efficacy mediates the relationship between CDAT and career decision-making difficulties. Results were consistent with our hypotheses. Theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.

Wisdom, Uncertainty, and Ambiguity in Management Decisions Based on Experiences and the Trustworthiness of Research Methods to Substantiate Them

Wisdom, uncertainty, and ambiguity will always exist in management decisions. One danger for firms lies in managers making decisions based on faulty theories acquired through personal experiences or learned from the experiences of others. Often, these decisions don’t generate the expected outcome and may even put the future of the firm at risk. Managers, to avoid this risk, are required to become wiser, more discerning, and more appropriately skeptical toward personal theories or theories learned from management gurus that propose simplistic formulas and quick-fix remedies. In this paper, the author discusses the risk of decisions based on personal theories or theories learned from others, the business research methods used to substantiate these theories, the philosophical assumptions of business research, the strength and weaknesses of qualitative and quantitative research methods, the benefits of combining both methods, and the trustworthiness of research methods in general for substantiating the theories used by managers in their decision-making.