Ambiguous Decision Research Articles

NEW LABOUR 'ETHICAL' FOREIGN POLICY

The article discusses problems and contradictions associated with the attempt of the Labour Party under the leadership of Tony Blair to start a 'new era' in international relations by putting the 'ethical dimension' into the heart of their foreign policy. Indeed, having come to power and possessing great credibility among the British society, New Labour undertook a number of actions, which marked the formal break with the practices of the previous governments. Thus, they shifted the focus from the foreign trade interests to human rights considerations on the international arena, introduced innovations in the field of international aid and development of poor countries, declared the priority of so-called 'advanced' national interests. These solutions, however, have led to some ambiguous results. The author argues that, on the one hand, the Labour Party 'new' foreign policy was a tribute to the historical tradition and continuity and on the other - the spirit of the times, as other Western countries leaders claimed similar statements, and that, in fact, it contributed to the moral authority of the government in the eyes of the British society. The article contains examples proving how ambiguity and contradictoriness of certain decisions have been the conscious choice made by politicians, when declared altruistic goals actually proved to protect interests of certain business structures and direct opposite of the stated ethical principles. It is suggested that the divergence between word and deed had been initially present in the New Labour international doctrine and that the 'ethical foreign policy' can be considered as one of the tools of Realpolitik. The author concentrates on such aspects of the New Labour foreign policy as development, aid, debt relief, and arms trade, rather than on Blair’s just wars’ that are widely discussed in the Russian language historical literature and press.

Lógica difusa para la toma de decisiones y la selección de personal

This research focuses on fuzzy logic. It identifies how it can be used for the selection of personnel and the relevant publications on its effectiveness on the entrepreneurial context. The review was carried out from a search in specialized databases. It has been found that fuzzy logic can provide a degree of certainty to the personnel selection process, in particular in the decision making accompanying it. It can contribute to the identification process of the most appropriate person to carry out a series of activities according, in addition, to the respective psychological profile. In fact, its use helps to reduce ambiguity and subjectivity inherent in decisions in these processes, since the results of the psychometric tests and interviews are not discretional, they are usually accompanied by multiple value assignment criteria.

Variations of career decision ambiguity tolerance between China and the United States and between high school and college

The variation of career decision ambiguity tolerance (CDAT) by cultures and development stages was examined in a sample of Chinese high school students (n=339), a sample of Chinese college students (n=356), along with U.S. college students (n=328). It was hypothesized that career decision ambiguity tolerance decreases when individuals experience more societal/cultural pressure on decidedness and responsibility for their career decision making. Based on the three-factor structure of CDAT (i.e., preference, tolerance, and aversion), measurement invariance was examined between Chinese and U.S. college students and between Chinese high school and college students. While the factor of tolerance was not upheld in both Chinese samples, the factors of preference and aversion were found to be structurally invariant across cultures and developmental stages. The analyses comparing means of preference and aversion found that U.S. college students had a higher level of preference relative to Chinese college students. It was also found that in comparison to Chinese high school students, Chinese college students had a higher level of aversion. The criterion validity of CDAT in Chinese culture was supported in the findings of preference and aversion being associated with career exploration and career indecision. The implication of this study was discussed along with its limitations and suggestions for future research.

Cournot game with incomplete information based on rank-dependent utility theory under a fuzzy environment

In most existing literatures on Cournot game, game behaviour between players is based on the hypothesis that people are complete rationality. However, players’ decisions are often affected by their behavioural characteristic and psychology preference. Traditional Cournot model also doesn’t deal with ambiguous information. Based on rank-dependent utility theory, this paper develops an incomplete information Cournot game in an ambiguous decision environment, where the form of ambiguity is described by a set of fuzzy parameters, and behavioural pattern is reflected by means of emotional function in rank-dependent utility. Further, we investigate the Nash equilibrium quantity of each manufacture in this kind of fuzzy Cournot game with incomplete information. Finally, the proposed Cournot model is applied to a case study, and dynamic variation and sensitivity analysis of optimal quantity with respect to decision-maker’s behaviour pattern are discussed in detailed, which illustrates that the proposed Cournot model is more reasonable than traditional Cournot model.

A Methodology to Establish a Conceptual Model and to Prioritise the Activities during Software Analysis

Software Engineering is based on three fundamental activities namely analysis, design and implementation. The Unified Modeling Language is used to analyze and design software through visual modeling techniques. Use Case diagrams are generally used for analysis purpose. As it is a visual model it may lead to various types of interpretations for the developer. This may also lead to ambiguous decisions and process development. To overcome this gap, a mathematical proof is proposed. By using this, a modularization chart is prepared. This chart assists the developers to decide about the schedule of activities, prioritize the completion of modules etc. To summarize, this modularization chart encourage computer aided analyzing of software projects under development

Feedback on health status and peer popularity influences social risk decision-making processes in adolescents and young adults

Cognitive and dual-processes models, involving cognitive and socio-emotional components, for adolescents’ risky behaviour have been proposed. This study tested their predictions by manipulating the presence or absence of feedback about gains and losses in health and peer popularity in a decision-making task with peers. Risky (e.g., taking or refusing a drug) and ambiguous decisions (e.g., eating hamburger or hotdog) were examined in 256 adolescents (aged 13–14; 15–16; 17–18) and young adults (aged 19–20). Participants made more risky choices and required less decision time when receiving feedback about the negative consequences on health and positive consequences on peer popularity. Decision times were comparatively larger for risky than for safe options in late adolescence and young adulthood. Results supported the dual-processes model showing that, though late cognitive changes were observed that could eventually lead to the selection of safe options, feedback gains in peer popularity outweighed unhealthy consequences leading to risky decisions.

Age differences in experiential and deliberative processes in unambiguous and ambiguous decision making.

Older adults experience declines in deliberative decisional capacities, while their affective or experiential abilities tend to remain intact (Peters & Bruine de Bruin, 2012). The current study used this framework to investigate age differences in description-based and experience-based decision-making tasks. Description-based tasks emphasize deliberative processing by allowing decision makers to analyze explicit descriptions of choice-reward information. Experience-based tasks emphasize affective or experiential processing because they lack the explicit choice-reward information, forcing decision makers to rely on feelings and information derived from past experiences. This study used the Columbia Card Task (CCT) as a description-based task where probability information is provided and the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) as an experience-based task, where it is not. As predicted, compared to younger adults (N = 65), older adults (N = 65) performed more poorly on the CCT but performed similarly on the IGT. Deliberative capacities (i.e., executive control and numeracy abilities) explained the relationship between age and performance on the CCT, suggesting that age-related differences in description-based decision-making tasks are related to declines in deliberative capacities. However, deliberative capacities were not associated with performance on the IGT for either older or younger adults. Nevertheless, on the IGT, older adults reported more use of affect-based strategies versus deliberative strategies, whereas younger adults reported similar use of these strategies. This finding offers partial support for the idea that decision-making tasks that rely on deliberate processing are more likely to demonstrate age effects than those that are more experiential.

A note on the TOPSIS method in MADM problems with linguistic evaluations

The TOPSIS method, commonly known as the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solutions, is one of the most popular approaches used in multi-attribute decision making (MADM). The fundamental procedure of the traditional TOPSIS method is rather straightforward, the ranking position of an alternative depends on its relative closeness to the positive ideal solution and the negative ideal solution, respectively. In order to encompass uncertain and ambiguous decision elements, an extension of the original TOPSIS method has been coined. With the help of fuzzy sets based TOPSIS, an overwhelming trend of fuzzy decision making applications has been witnessed. In the present work, however, it is found that the extended fuzzy TOPSIS method is unable to distinguish all the different alternatives under linguistic environment. Moreover, the undistinguishable alternatives are countless in quantity, and they have formed specific patterns with respect to the parameters of TOPSIS methods. To dampen this ranking ambiguity, we designed a set of supplemental methods to construct a revised TOPSIS approach with linguistic evaluations. Correspondingly, the sufficiency of the revised TOPSIS method to guarantee total orders has been proven. Furthermore, a numerical example concerning the production line improvement of a manufacturing company is demonstrated to validate the feasibility and supremacy of the proposed method. Finally, a series of further discussions are performed to shed some lights on the impacts caused by the changes of the alternative quantity, the attribute quantity, and the type of linguistic term.

Evaluation and selection of emergency treatment technology based on dynamic fuzzy GRA method for chemical contingency spills

A robust scheme to address emergency pollution accident is becoming more and more important with the rise of the frequency and intensity of the emergency pollution accidents. Therefore, it is crucial to select an appropriate technology in an emergency response to chemical spills. In this study, an evaluation framework based on dynamic fuzzy GRA method has been developed to make forward optimum scheme for the selection of emergency treatment technology. Dynamic analysis and linguistic terms are used to evaluate alternatives to improve efficiency of emergency treatment procedures by addressing the vagueness and ambiguity in decision making. The method was then applied in a case study to evaluate emergency arsenic treatment technology and demonstrate its applicability and feasibility in emergency arsenic pollution under two scenarios associated with different arsenic levels. Therefore, not only the results can be used for selecting emergency treatment technology, but also help decision-makers identify desired decisions for contaminant mitigation with a quick response and cost-effective manner.

High order smooth ambiguity preferences and asset prices

This paper extends the recursive smooth ambiguity decision model developed in Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005, 2009) by relaxing the uniformity imposed on higher order acts. This generalization permits a separation of intertemporal substitution, risk attitude, and attitudes towards different sources of uncertainty. Our decision model is suited in situations where subjects may treat several kinds of uncertainty in different manners. We apply our preference specification to a consumption-based asset pricing model with long run risks and assess the impact of ambiguity on asset prices and predictability patterns. We find that modeling attitudes towards uncertainty through high order smooth ambiguity preferences has important implications for asset prices. Our model generates a highly volatile price-dividend ratio and predictability patterns in line with the data.

Fast-decision identification algorithm of emission source pattern in database

Abstract This article presents Fast-decision Identification Algorithm (FdIA) of Source Emission (SE) in DataBase (DB). The aim of this identification process is to define signal vector (V) in the form of distinctive features of this signal which is received in the process of its measurement. Superheterodyne ELectronic INTelligence (ELINT) receiver in the measure procedure was used. The next step in identification process is comparison vector with pattern in DB and calculation of decision function. The aim of decision function is to evaluate similarity degree between vector and pattern. Identification process mentioned above differentiates copies of radar of the same type which is a special test challenge defined as Specific Emitter Identification (SEI). The authors of this method drew up FdIA and three-stage parameterization by the implementation of three different ways of defining the degree of similarity between vector and pattern (called ’Compare procedure’). The algorithm was tested on hundreds of signal vectors coming from over a dozen copies of radars of the same type. Fast-decision Identification Algorithm which was drawn up and implemented makes it possible to create Knowledge Base which is an integral part of Expert DataBase. As a result, the amount of the ambiguity of decisions in the process of Source Emission Identification is minimized

A De Novo multi-approaches multi-criteria decision making technique with an application in performance evaluation of material handling device

Application of multiple conventional approaches to a particular multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem often suffers rank reversal giving rise to confusion and ambiguity in appropriate decision making. To eradicate the confusion, this paper proposes a De Novo multi-approaches multi-criteria decision making method namely Technique of Precise Order Preference (TPOP). The TPOP first examines the inconsistency in the ranking order of the alternatives of a MCDM problem by using multiple conventional approaches. If inconsistency/rank reversal in ranking order of the alternatives exists then TPOP, using advanced version of entropy weighting method introduced in this research work, measures weights of the final selection values of conventional approaches. Subsequently, TPOP based on these weights and final selection values computes precise selection indices (PSI) that determines accurate ranking order for the alternatives. The proposed technique is illustrated by two real life examples on material handling device (MHD) ranking and selection problems. The first example is initially solved using five conventional integrated fuzzy multi-criteria decision making techniques (FMCDMs) whereas the second example is taken from previous researchers’ works. The results obtained using TPOP justify the validity, applicability and requirements of the proposed technique. The study shows that the proposed multi-approaches, multi-criteria decision making technique can be a useful and effective model in MCDM.

Gerenciamento Adaptativo do SAI de Acácia Negra: uma abordagem sob a ótica da auto-organização sustentável

Com o surgimento do conceito de Gerenciamento Florestal Sustentável (GFS), as agroindústrias florestais vêm sendo pressionadas a tomar decisões baseadas em princípios de sustentabilidade, impulsionando todos os demais elos da cadeia à certificação. No Brasil acontece um processo que espelha este momento no Sistema Agroindustrial de Acácia Negra. Isso ocorre, entretanto, em um contexto complexo, implicando decisões ambíguas e arriscadas no âmbito dos ecossistemas florestais. Assim, propõe-se a seguinte questão: quais ações estratégicas estão sendo adotadas pelos produtores florestais e como elas se relacionam com os riscos na gestão do SAI de Acácia Negra? O objetivo é analisar o processo de desenvolvimento e implementação de ações estratégicas capazes de promover ou desencorajar a auto-organização sustentável do sistema (i.e. certificação florestal). A fundamentação teórica inicia-se com uma perspectiva sistêmica orientada ao estudo das organizações e estratégias sustentáveis. Em seguida, integram-se discussões mais especificamente relacionadas às decisões, estratégias e riscos no âmbito da propriedade rural. Como metodologia incorpora-se a Post-normal science, com enfoque qualitativo. Como resultado, identifica-se que as ações estratégicas adotadas pelos produtores florestais estão dialogicamente relacionadas aos riscos, podendo exercer influências complementares, concorrentes e até antagônicas.

On the banality of forest governance fragmentation: Exploring ‘‘gecko politics’’ as a bureaucratic behaviour in limited statehood

Governance of tropical forests at both the international and the national level is more and more fragmented because of the large constellation of actors, ideas and interests influencing forestland policies for their conservation or change. In public policy area, fragmentation is to some extent the result of competing interests and objectives that lead to a power play in policy-making between actor groups (both public and private), i.e., state bureaucracies, Intergovernmental organisations, nongovernmental organisations and private companies. In this power relationship for the control of tropical forestlands, the hegemony of state bureaucracies in forest governance processes is increasingly contested because of the growing influence of external actor groups in forest governance. Our findings show that the fragmentation of forest governance, which might be considered specific to pluralistic systems, became banal even in tropical countries with a state-centred system like Cameroon where the state claims hegemonic ownership of forestlands. This fragmentation is particularly reinforced in limited statehood where state bureaucracies are attracted to/dependent on external resources for dealing with weak institutional capacity and to face the government's lack of ability to supply public goods and services. But despite the governance fragmentation constraints, this article reveals that some governments and sectoral bureaucracies in limited statehood are capable of using cunning behaviours to secure their own interests in domestic forestland policies and avoid pressure from external actors. In the case of Cameroon for example, the strategy being used relies on a wait-and-see game, uncertainty and recourse to sudden, ambiguous decisions; this is what we call “gecko politics”. Broadly, this article seeks to understand how a government or state bureaucracy in limited statehood with a state-centred system can try to impose its own interests in the context of forest governance fragmentation?

Career Decision Ambiguity Tolerance Scale: Construction and initial validations

The Career Decision Ambiguity Tolerance Scale (CDAT) measures individual evaluations of and responses to ambiguity encountered in career decision making. It was developed and initially validated through two studies of college students. An exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis consistently showed a three-factor structure for career decision ambiguity tolerance, consisting of preference, tolerance, and aversion. In addition to support for construct validity and subscale reliabilities, the findings also support the scale's incremental validity in predicting career indecision, career decision-making self-efficacy, and career adaptability over and beyond general ambiguity tolerance. The theoretical meaning and practical application of the CDAT were discussed along with its limitations and suggestions for future research.

THE ROLE OF CREATIVITY IN ENTREPRENEURSHIP

One of the most important factors to explain the sudden relevance of entrepreneurship, was the importance of creativity as a new source of competitiveness. Psychologists argue that being creative means to create something new, original and appropriate reality. Creative is characterized by originality and expressiveness, is imaginative, generative, pathfinder, invention, innovation etc. Increasing effects of globalization leads to the need creative approach in a market with a high level of opportunity and competition. Entrepreneurial factors overlap with many creative features such as curiosity, self-confidence, a high level of energy, responsibility and vision. As a highly complex mental formation, creativity is characterized by a multitude of ways such as productivity, usability, efficiency, value, ingenuity, innovation and originality. The impact of entrepreneurial creativity extends to the whole life of an entrepreneur, and not just during business. Success is stimulated by the use of juxtaposition and combination of different ideas that often but not related to the impact on decision making. Entrepreneurial Creativity should be seen as a competitive force and portfolio of skills. Adopting a creative entrepreneurial approach protects us from uncertainty and ambiguity in decision making in the external environment.

도로 설계 지역 구분

PURPOSES : Ambiguous decision on whether rural or urban area for road design can increase the construction cost and restrict the land use of surrounding area. However, administrative classification on rural and urban area is not directly related to road design because of this classification is not based on the engineering viewpoint, so method which can explain the road design context is required. METHODS : Method which enables to identify the area for road design is suggested based on the deceleration expected to be experienced by drivers who use the road section concerned. Deceleration rate corresponding to the area such as rural or urban suggested in Road Design Guideline is used as the criteria to identify the area by comparing this value with the estimated deceleration rate at the road section concerned. Speed profile method is utilized to derive the deceleration rate, and speed estimation way for reflecting both road geometry and intersection is suggested using stopping sight distance concept. RESULTS : The procedure of the method application is suggested, and the design example utilizing the method is provided. CONCLUSIONS : The method is expected to be used to identify the area for road design with engineering viewpoint, and design consistency among the roads with similar driving environment can be made.

The fog of feedback: Ambiguity and firm responses to multiple aspiration levels

This study examines firms' responses to performance assessments relative to multiple aspiration levels. We argue that comparisons of performance to multiple aspiration levels over time affects the interpretative clarity of feedback and, consequently, shapes a firm's responsiveness. We further conceptualize the relationship between performance relative to social and historical aspirations as ambiguous, inconsistent, and consistent performance feedback. Empirically, we examine the effects—on firms' responsiveness—of weak, negative, and positive correlations between performance relative to social and historical aspirations, where responsiveness is measured in terms of new product introductions. We find that both inconsistent and consistent feedback increase a firm's responsiveness, whereas ambiguous feedback dampens responsiveness. Our focus on this type of feedback ambiguity is novel, and it establishes the functional form of the relationship between feedback clarity/ambiguity and responsiveness. This paper augments the behavioral theory of the firm and research on performance feedback; it also extends previous work on ambiguity in strategic decision making

Reach target selection in humans using ambiguous decision cues containing variable amounts of conflicting sensory evidence supporting each target choice.

Human subjects chose between two color-coded reach targets using multicolored checkerboard-like decision cues (DCs) that presented variable amounts of conflicting sensory evidence supporting both target choices. Different DCs contained different numbers of small squares of the two target colors. The most ambiguous DCs contained nearly equal numbers of squares of both target colors. The subjects reached as soon as they selected a target after the appearance of the DC ("choose-and-go" task). The choice behavior of the subjects showed many similarities to prior studies using other stimulus properties (e.g., visual motion coherence, brightness), including progressively longer response times and higher target-choice error rates for more ambiguous DCs. However, certain trends in their choice behavior could not be fully captured by simple drift-diffusion models. Allowing the subjects to view the DCs for a period of time before presenting the targets ("match-to-sample" task) resulted in much shorter response times overall, but also revealed a reluctance of subjects to commit to a decision about the predominant color of the more ambiguous DCs during the initial extended observation period. Model processing and simulation analyses suggest that the subjects might adjust the dynamics of their decision-making process on a trial-to-trial basis in response to the variable level of ambiguous and conflicting evidence in different DCs between trials.

Illusory Liberalism in Atlas de geografía humana

Atlas de Geografía Humana constitutes a critique of the much vaunted notion of a progressive Spain that has rectified the gender inequalities of the Francoist era, as one of the highly educated and successful protagonists, Fran, unwittingly adopts her mother’s alignment with patriarchal norms. This novel elucidates the incompatibility of the private and public sphere in Spain, for it is only with the protagonist’s renewal of her commitment to the private sphere that she will save her marriage, despite its negative consequences for her career. Fran’s ambiguous decision to have a child sustains the view that a traditional mentality governs the Spanish private sphere, and that the demands of the public and private spheres are frequently irreconcilable. In this article, I explore the current situation of women in Spain, and I then proceed to examine the motifs of the mother-daughter relationship and childfreedom in this novel.