Alternative Trade Research Articles

Economic Growth –Trade Liberalization Nexus: The Case of Nigeria

This study uses the case of Nigerian economy to offer a robust insight on the extent to which trade liberalization matters for economic grow. Exploring ARDL modelling framework, we consider three alternative measures of trade liberation to determine whether the response of economic growth to trade liberalization is sensitive to the choice of the indicators of trade liberalization that is under consideration. We find significant effects of trade liberalization on economic but mainly in terms of trade openness and only in the short run situation. Thus, we recommend that policymakers consider alternative trade liberation strategies such as deeper integration framework capable of promoting the development of regional human capital and consequently long term economic growth.

A CGE Analysis of Indonesia's Free Trade Agreements

Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) CGE model of the global economy, this essay analyses how much trade agreements between Indonesia and its top three trading partners – China, Japan, and the USA – could benefit Indonesia and those trading partners. In addition, an analysis of unilateral trade liberalization in Indonesia is included to provide a comparison of alternative trade liberalization policy strategies. The study conducts experiments by simulating the potential effect of the removal tariffs on imported merchandise under each liberalization scenario. The result suggests that the impact of trade liberalization is variable between strategies, but the greatest economic benefit is from the unilateral scenario. However, the restrictiveness of preferential RoO and other regulations in bilateral agreements would limit the scope for achieving the full benefit projected for the bilateral liberalization scenarios – discount rates of around 25 percent have been suggested.

Innovation in the Stock Market and Alternative Trading Systems

Is something wrong with the structure of the U.S. stock market? Both industry participants and scholars have recently faulted the equity market for its lack of innovation. In particular, they have emphasized that stock exchanges may not have the right incentives to provide innovative solutions to market problems. I argue that understanding the quality of innovation in the equity market requires bringing other types of stock trading venues—particularly “alternative trading systems” (“ATSs”)—into the picture. My central claim is that ATSs have markedly superior incentives to innovate than exchanges for reasons rooted in their governing law and business models. First, ATSs face far lighter regulatory hurdles to beginning operations and changing structure than an exchange, and some important regulations that limit exchange experimentation do not apply to ATSs at all. Second, ATSs are subject to fewer disclosure obligations than exchanges, and as a result they can, in practice, retain their innovations as “trade secrets,” while this is exceptionally difficult for exchanges. Third, ATSs and exchanges have different revenue sources. This is important because ATSs benefit less from the status quo market design than exchanges and thus lack reasons to preserve that structure against desirable innovations, especially those reducing opportunities for latency arbitrage. The result is that ATSs produce the very innovations that some scholars have sought, but failed to find in exchanges, such as frequent batched auctions. I use newly available data on ATSs to inform and illustrate these arguments. I conclude by noting that the consequences of ATS innovations for the equity market as a whole are profoundly ambiguous, because it is unclear how much trading volume an ATS can ultimately attract.

Regulated Markets, Alternative Trading Venues & Systematic Internalisers in Europe

The purpose of this paper is to explain the similarities and differences between regulated markets (RMs), alternative trading venues (i.e. multilateral trading facilities / MTFs and organised trading facilities / OTFs), and systematic internalisers (SIs) in Europe. The structure of the paper is as follows. Paragraph II provides an overview of the main terms and definitions. Subsequently, the authors discuss the MiFID II scope in relation to RMs, alternative trading venues, and SIs (paragraph III). This is followed by a treatment of the organisational requirements for RMs, alternative trading venues, and SIs (paragraph IV). Then, the MiFID II pre- and post-trade transparency rules are discussed, both for equity (paragraph V) and nonequity (paragraph VI). The authors end with some concluding observations (paragraph VII).

National Defence Under Alternative Trade Policy Regimes: Theory and Evidence from Developing Countries

Defence mechanism for any nation is the way through which internal as well as external geo-political condition can be stabilised. Moreover, defence sector can also be treated as one of the most potential sectors regarding financial transactions and the relevance of it is valid both in autarky and in the regime of international trade. Using Granger Causality for a panel of 27 developing countries across Asian and South American continents, we have found that different trade measures are playing major role in the way of functioning of national defence. For further analytical purpose and also to select the most effective trade policy regime among the alternatives, we have adopted a trade theoretic framework. In this regard, we have used a four-sector general equilibrium trade model with special emphasis on defence as well as R&D to defence to illustrate the impact of trade liberalisation on defence system. From such setup and by using bootstrap policy simulation we have found that trade liberalisation in the form foreign direct investment (specific to the R&D to defence) as the most effective trade regime to claim gains from trade in the presence of defence dualism for any small open developing economy. Such comparative statics is critical from the policy perspective. Policymakers should be cautious before defence industry liberalisation. JEL Codes: H56, C33, F11, F14, F21, D58

Hedge Fund Performance under Misspecified Models

We develop a new approach for evaluating the entire alpha distribution across hedge funds. Our methodology allows for performance comparisons between models that are misspecified – a common feature given the numerous factors that drive hedge fund returns. Empirically, we find that the standard models used in previous work are subject to misspecification as they perform like the CAPM and produce large and positive hedge funds alphas. We then construct a new model based on alternative trading strategies (including variance, carry, and time-series momentum) and document a large and statistically significant decrease in performance. Whereas this new model remains misspecified, it identifies several key factors that drive hedge fund returns.

The economic and environmental implications of post feed-in tariff PV on constrained low voltage networks

With the recent removal of the solar PV feed-in tariff on ≤4 kWp arrays, installation of domestic rooftop PV has become significantly less commercially feasible in the UK. Whilst alternative trading schemes are beginning to emerge, the adequacy of their return on investment is questionable. However, the extent to which installation may need to be subsidised has not yet been quantified. Furthermore, the extent to which increased peer-to-peer trading could contribute to network constraints, and the environmental and economic costs of managing such schemes, have not been examined extensively. In this paper, the subsidy required to encourage a rooftop PV uptake rate of 0.5% homeowners/year is determined and the costs of constraint management are calculated for various network topologies. The problems presented are solved using time series analysis, power flow simulations, and optimisation processes with Monte Carlo methods. It was found that P2P trading is the most promising post subsidy revenue stream, reducing the required feed-in tariff from £0.14 to £0.10 for systems installed in 2020. Furthermore, it was found that with P2P trading, requirement for feed-in tariff support should end by 2032. Reconductoring was the most economically effective constraint management strategy, costing £50 k to £200 k less than curtailment when applied to 29 networks over 30 years. From an environmental perspective, it was found that reconductoring had a carbon footprint 2 orders of magnitude lower than curtailment & battery storage.

Arktik Bölgesi Siyaseti: Ottava Deklarasyonu’ndan Bugüne Aktör Politikaları Ve Çin’in Kutup İpek Yolu Projesi

Arktik giderek artan bir jeopolitik, jeostratejik ve jeoekonomik değerle birlikte uluslararası siyasetin gündeminde yer bulmaktadır. Küresel iklim değişikliğinin bir boyutu olan küresel ısınmanın yarattığı etki, buzullarla kaplı ve iklimi oldukça sert bu bölgede köklü değişimler yaratmaktadır. Bölgedeki buzulların erimesi çevresel bir tehdit ve ekolojik bir dönüşüm oluştururken siyasi, ekonomik, bilimsel, askeri, ticari alanlarda da ortaya çeşitli fırsatlar çıkarmaktadır. Hem bölge hem de bölge dışı aktörler de bir yandan uluslararası güvenlik meselesi haline gelen küresel ısınmaya yönelik çalışmalar yürütmek isterken diğer taraftan ulusal çıkarları bağlamında paylaşımdan pay alma iradesi göstermektedirler. Bu kapsamda bölge giderek büyük aktörlerin politikalarının yoğunlaştığı bir odak noktası haline gelmiştir. Arktik ayrıca uluslararası alanın yükselen gücü olan Çin’in ise küresel açılımını sergilediği yerlerden biri olarak ön plana çıkmaktadır. Bölgedeki alternatif ticaret yolu güzergâhı, enerji kaynakları, değerli madenler, bilimsel keşifler, turizm gibi potansiyeller Çin’in yöneliminin temel güdülerini oluşturmaktadır. 2018 yılında açıklanan “Beyaz Kitap” ile Çin Arktik politikasının resmi ana hatlarını çizmiş ve Yol ve Kuşak Projesinin bir ayağını oluşturacak olan Kutup İpek Yolu girişimini açıklamıştır. Bu çalışmada öncelikle Arktik Bölgesinin kısa bir tanıtımına yer verilecek, ardından Ottava Deklarasyonu uyarınca 1996 yılında bölgedeki 8 devlet ve yerel halkların üyelerini oluşturduğu Arktik Konseyi’ne değinilecektir. Arkasından da Arktik’teki aktörlerin politikalarının genel hatları ele alınacak ve bir bölge dışı aktör olan Çin’in Arktik siyaseti, Kutup İpek Yolu projesi üzerinden incelenecektir.

Electronic Shopping Cart

The present paper is discussing the project’s main goal and therefore the plan of proposing an answer to the present downside within the present state of affairs all the medium to massive size supermarkets/grocery stores. Therefore, it pretends to be a significant improvement in these things, and time is saved as an answer for the shoppers whereas buying these places. It is as a result of the massive progress and improvement of the IT trade throughout the past 55 years (and far more throughout the last decade), that this project had the chance to be developed and enforced. Currently, a day’s personal computers are getting terribly smaller and smaller, their processing is even quicker and higher (much additional efficient), and it’s additionally less expensive than it absolutely was twenty-five years agone. This personal plan (and consequently, this project); which is explained very well during this document, tries to be a significant improvement within the retail business. The project development and implementation were complete focusings not solely on the grocery stores, and food supermarkets/butcher retailers, and additionally massive malls. However, these ideas and styles may be cipher too in many totally different sectors, like the textile trade, entertainment-related business (videogames, music, movies…), books, toys… and no matter the alternative trade of products that the retail company is commercialism. therefore the initiative and section of this document are that the rationalization of the most motivations and things that originated this concept, therefore as its analysis, design, and implementation, for in a while showing the plausible enhancements which may be enclosed within the system and therefore the real implementation of the first plan is additionally been mentioned within the paper itself.

Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade

International trade enables us to exploit regional differences in climate change impacts and is increasingly regarded as a potential adaptation mechanism. Here, we focus on hunger reduction through international trade under alternative trade scenarios for a wide range of climate futures. Under the current level of trade integration, climate change would lead to up to 55 million people who are undernourished in 2050. Without adaptation through trade, the impacts of global climate change would increase to 73 million people who are undernourished (+33%). Reduction in tariffs as well as institutional and infrastructural barriers would decrease the negative impact to 20 million (-64%) people. We assess the adaptation effect of trade and climate-induced specialization patterns. The adaptation effect is strongest for hunger-affected import-dependent regions. However, in hunger-affected export-oriented regions, partial trade integration can lead to increased exports at the expense of domestic food availability. Although trade integration is a key component of adaptation, it needs sensitive implementation to benefit all regions.

Information, Market Power and Price Volatility

We consider demand function competition with a finite number of agents and private information. We show that any degree of market power can arise in the unique equilibrium under an information structure that is arbitrarily close to complete information. Regardless of the number of agents and the correlation of payo¤ shocks, market power may be arbitrarily close to zero (the competitive outcome) or arbitrarily large (so there is no trade). By contrast, price volatility is always lower than the variance of the aggregate shock across all information structures. Alternative trading mechanisms lead to very distinct bounds as a comparison with Cournot competition establishes..

The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis

The current trade war between the United States and China is unprecedented in modern history. This study introduces a database of tariff increases resulting from the trade war and quantifies the impacts using the canonical GTAPinGAMS model calibrated to the recently released GTAP version 10 accounts. We find that the remaining tariff increases as of March 2020 after the phase one trade deal decrease welfare in China by 1.7% and welfare in the United States by 0.2%. Impacts on sectoral revenue are reported for both countries. China's exports to and imports from the United States are reduced by 52.3% and 49.3%. The trade flow between the United States and China will be diverted to their major trade partners resulting in higher welfare in those countries, including many Asian countries. The estimated impacts are robust to using alternative trade elasticities and are amplified in the absence of the phase one tariff reductions.

Assessing the relevance of an information source to trading from an adaptive-markets hypothesis perspective

I propose a framework motivated by the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH) to analyze the relevance of a specific information source for the trading of a given security. To illustrate the applicability and advantages of this methodology, I explore the extent to which the financial statement (FS) is relevant for Credit Default Swap (CDS) trading. Specifically, I adopt a Bayesian Model Averaging approach to examine properties of the accounting metrics that enter the implied trading heuristics of the market participants. Hypothesis-testing is conducted on various horizons around the announcement dates of corporate results. The diversity of trading rules and the shift in the heuristics mix that occurred after 2008 support the AMH perspective. Overall, results show that there is a significant component of profit-motivated trading in the CDS market that relies on financial statement information, even after controlling for information transmission from alternative trading forums. Out of sample trading strategies confirm the robustness the main findings.

RECONFIGURATION OF THE WORLD ECONOMY IN A MIRROR OF DISCUSSION SABOUT THE CHOICE OF EFFECTIVE TRADE AND ECONOMIC POLICY

The purpose of this article is the research the key aspects of the unstable development of the world economy at the present stage. The context of international economic relations is changing in view of the escalation of trade conflicts, the slowdown in economic growth and the search for balanced effective trade and economic policies. A number of problems arising from the shocks of economic development are shown, in particular the problem of poverty and increasing inequality in the distribution of income on a global scale: the problem of the high debt of developed countries and the unstable conditions of their public finances; a significant degree of uncertainty over the foreign interests of large corporate capital of the United States in the context of growing technological competition. It was proved that China's role in a number of aspects of the world economy 's reconfiguration will depend on a number of its capabilities to overcome various exogenous shocks, liberalize the national services market, form alternative regional trade agreements, and offset the negative impact of toxic tariffs and currency problems arising from the trade conflict with the United States. In general, there is considerable uncertainty in the world, with further multilateralism, the formation of new poles of economic development and the need to reform the established system of global economic regulation, which will increasingly focus on the protection of investment, intellectual property and the environment, subsidizing and regulating international trade in digital goods and services.

Should I stay or should I go? The role of the renminbi in trade partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region

ABSTRACT In this paper, we examine the price elasticity of China’s aggregate imports and then provide further details on this elasticity in partner countries according to their participation in two alternative trading arrangements (TPP vs RCEP) and their level of development. By using different types of data and appropriate methodologies to conduct our analysis at both global and bilateral levels, we observe that the price elasticity of China’s imports is negative, which is consistent with the most recent studies and challenges the conventional wisdom. One hypothesis that might explain this result is the suppliers’ patterns of trade. Since export diversification by trading partners can affect the sensitivity of Chinese imports to relative price movements, we endogenise the import price elasticity accordingly. We find that negative elasticities are more prominent when China’s trading partners are developing countries, and when we consider their diversification in export markets. On the whole, the more partner countries are diversified in their export destinations, the lower the import price elasticity is in absolute terms. We conclude that export diversification by partner countries allows China to increase her ‘resilience’ to movements in its exchange rate. The same tests are performed in the case of the US for comparison.

Sustainability Perception of Local Extra Virgin Olive Oil and Consumers’ Attitude: A New Italian Perspective

Extra virgin olive oil sustainability shows that it is strictly connected to local production and certifications. However, consumers’ behaviour toward a local product is tied with the information exchange between producers and consumers. The aim of the research is to analyse, using a logistic regression model, if the attitudes, habits, and behaviours of the consumers influence their opinion on the sustainability of local extra virgin olive oil, relative to the three dimensions of sustainability (environmental, socio-cultural, and economic). This study tries to combine studies about agri-food sustainability and consumers’ behaviour about local consumption, in an attempt to evaluate their attitude towards an agroecology food regime. Indeed, this information can be useful in order to plan adequate and specific interventions to improve the sustainability of the extra virgin olive oil production. The results indicate that the opinion about the sustainability of local extra virgin olive oil is linked to the information exchange between producers and consumers. This confirms that local alternative trade channels require numerous interventions in order to simplify and improve such exchange, both from a managerial and political point of view. Moreover, it can be useful to develop the information and communication technologies, in order to ensure the reliability, the transparency, and the security of the information exchange. This can also be useful to prevent frauds that are very common for this product.

Alternative Trading Systems in the Corporate Bond Market

We investigate the trading of corporate bonds on alternative trading system (ATS) platforms. We draw a key distinction between request-for-quote (RFQ) and electronic communication network (ECN) trading protocols, which balance investors’ preference for immediacy and anonymity. Trades on ATS platforms are smaller and more likely to involve investment-grade bonds. Trades on ATS platforms are more probable for older, less actively traded bonds from smaller issues and for bonds traded by more dealers where inventory is high. Moreover, dealer participation on ATS platforms is associated with lower customer transaction costs of between 24 and 32 basis points.

Affordable Adjustments and Exploitable Opportunities in the European Union: The Search for Alternatives to Sanctions Busting Trade

My research explores the role of trade interests in sanctions busting. The literature on sanctions busting argues that economic sanctions create commercial opportunities for third-party states to exploit as sender state firms cease trading with states targeted by sanctions. EU member states, particularly, France, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom, are frequently cited as sanctions busters. Sanctions busting trade has been shown to weaken the effectiveness of economic sanctions, which can generate political costs for EU firms attempting to maintain trade relationships with targeted states. I argue that the picture is incomplete, demonstrating that firms’ in EU member states instead follow a “path of least resistance.” By following this path, EU member states eschew sanctions busting commercial opportunities because more convenient and equally lucrative commercial opportunities potentially exist with alternative trade partners within their existing dense trading networks. The economic community that has developed among EU member states thus serves as a convenient “path of least resistance” and provides a less costly – both economically and politically – route for trade as the number of sanctions in force increases. Using UN Comtrade data from 1962-2011, I test the effects of intra-EU trade on the likelihood of sanctions busting using a multilevel logistic regression and find that as intra-EU trade increases for EU member states, the probability of sanctions busting declines. Scholars have largely ignored the effects of membership in the EU on economic sanctions and sanctions busting, which potentially could improve how economic sanctions are designed, implemented, and enforced.

‘Without United States’ Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and Vietnam’s Apparel Industry

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impacts of the ‘without-US’ Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement on Vietnam’s apparel industry with two scenarios: (i) the TPP11 without the US and (ii) the likely killed TPP with Vietnam’s participation into the alternative free trade agreement (FTA) of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The impacts are analyzed through two main policies: tariff elimination and rule of origin, by using the ex-ante partial equilibrium model “Global Simulation Analysis of Industry-Level Trade Policy” (GSIM). The result shows that when the US withdraws from the TPP, export value and trade welfare contributed by the Vietnam’s apparel industry would remarkably reduce in comparison with the scenario of the full TPP12. However, if Vietnam joins the RCEP, the ability for Vietnam to comply with the origin regulation is quite feasible, which can slightly promote Vietnam’s apparel export into this FTA.

China and the Emerging Powers in International Trade Relations: The Future of the Multilateral Trade System, the Role of Free Trade Agreements and New Unilateralism

The shifting trends in trade relations between the major partners indicate that we are witnessing the emergence of long-term changes in international trade policy that extend well beyond current events. Does this development in international trade relations point to a future characterized by conflict, as is suggested by the disputes of the US with China and the European Union – a future informed by aggressive unilateralism and a retreat from international law and multilateral cooperation? At the time of the founding of the World Trade Organization in the mid-90s and the considerable achievements around multilateral trade system liberalization brought about through the new WTO treaty texts, the implications posed by the emerging states were somewhere off in the still distant future. In the course of rapid development, we have now reached that future, and we have a clearer view of the actual form it takes. It raises the question of how the global power balance will unfold in the face of the continuing growth in the importance of Asia, in particular China, and the concurrent relative loss of importance of the West. And does the currently observed rise in unilateralism point to a future in which the previous model of a liberal trade order can no longer be maintained, and in which multilateral structures are increasingly replaced by forms of an alternative trade policy? This article explains the striking movements in trade policy as being intimately related to overarching changes in the overarching world order: The changes in trade policy strategies are evolving as a response to global changes in the competitive environment, in which the emerging powers are gaining importance not only economically but politically and geopolitically as well. This is the background against which the author will discuss the perspectives of the shifting international trade regime, which simultaneously expresses an ever more clearly defined reorganization of transnational relations.