Alpine Forelands Research Articles

The role of hydrological model complexity and uncertainty in climate change impact assessment

Abstract. Little quantitative knowledge is as yet available about the role of hydrological model complexity for climate change impact assessment. This study investigates and compares the varieties of different model response of three hydrological models (PROMET, Hydrotel, HSAMI), each representing a different model complexity in terms of process description, parameter space and spatial and temporal scale. The study is performed in the Ammer watershed, a 709 km2 catchment in the Bavarian alpine forelands, Germany. All models are driven and validated by a 30-year time-series (1971–2000) of observation data. It is expressed by objective functions, that all models, HSAMI and Hydrotel due to calibration, perform almost equally well for runoff simulation over the validation period. Some systematic deviances in the hydrographs and the spatial patterns of hydrologic variables are however quite distinct and thus further discussed. Virtual future climate (2071–2100) is generated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (vers 3.7.1), driven by the Coupled Global Climate Model (vers. 2) based on an A2 emission scenario (IPCC 2007). The hydrological model performance is evaluated by flow indicators, such as flood frequency, annual 7-day and 30-day low flow and maximum seasonal flows. The modified climatic boundary conditions cause dramatic deviances in hydrologic model response. HSAMI shows tremendous overestimation of evapotranspiration, while Hydrotel and PROMET behave in comparable range. Still, their significant differences, like spatially explicit patterns of summerly water shortage or spring flood intensity, highlight the necessity to extend and quantify the uncertainty discussion in climate change impact analysis towards the remarkable effect of hydrological model complexity. It is obvious that for specific application purposes, water resources managers need to be made aware of this effect and have to take its implications into account for decision making. The paper concludes with an outlook and a proposal for future research necessities.

Environmental and climatic conditions at a potential Glacial refugial site of tree species near the Southern Alpine glaciers. New insights from multiproxy sedimentary studies at Lago della Costa (Euganean Hills, Northeastern Italy)

It has been hypothesized that refugia of thermophilous tree species were located in Northern Italy very close to the Alps, though, this hypothesis has yet to be tested thoroughly. In contrast to Central and Southern Italy with its relative wealth of data, only a few fragmentary records are currently available from Northern Italy for the last Glacial (Würm, Weichselian). Our new study site Lago della Costa lies adjacent to the catchment of the megafans of the Alpine forelands and the braided rivers of the Northeastern Po Plain that have so far inhibited the recovery of continuous Glacial and Late-Glacial records. We analyze pollen, plant macrofossils, charcoal and ostracods to reconstruct the vegetation, fire and lake history for the period 33,000–16,000 cal. BP. We compare our data with Glacial records from Southern Europe to discuss similarities and dissimilarities between these potential refugial areas. A comparison with independent paleoclimatic proxies allows to assess potential linkages between environmental and climatic variability. New macrofossil and pollen data at Lago della Costa unambiguously document the local persistence of boreal tree taxa such as Larix decidua and Betula tree species around the study site during the last Glacial. The regular occurrence of pollen of temperate trees in the organic lake sediments (fine-detritus calcareous gyttja) suggests that temperate taxa such as Corylus avellana, Quercus deciduous, Tilia, Ulmus, Fraxinus excelsior, Carpinus, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica, most likely survived the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at favorable sites in the Euganean Hills. The percentage values of temperate trees are comparable with those from Southern Europe (e.g. Monticchio in Southern Italy). We conclude that the Euganean Hills were one of the northernmost refugial areas of temperate taxa in Europe. However, the relative and absolute abundances of pollen of temperate trees are highly variable. Pollen-inferred declines of temperate tree communities (e.g. Quercetum mixtum) and low ostracod-inferred water levels at Lago della Costa correspond to the cold Heinrich events H-2 (LGM; 23,000–19,000 cal. BP) and H-3 (around 28,000 cal. BP), as recorded in the marine sediments of the North Atlantic. Similar patterns of significant temperate tree population collapses during cold Heinrich events are recorded at southern Mediterranean sites (e.g. Monticchio and the Alboran Sea). These findings suggest close linkages between Northern Atlantic and South-Central European climates during the past Glacial.

Human behaviour towards climatic change during the 4th millennium BC in the Swiss Alpine forelands

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

Moho depth and Poisson's ratio in the Western-Central Alps from receiver functions

Current knowledge about deep crustal structure of the Alpine orogen has mainly been derived from P-wave velocity models obtained from active and passive seismic experiments. A complementary S-wave model to provide lithological constraints necessary for unique structural interpretation has been missing to date. In this paper, we present important new information on S-wave velocity model in the Alps. We applied the receiver function method using 6 yr of high quality data from 61 permanent and temporary stations sampling the Western—Central Alps. We determined first-order crustal features Moho depth (H) and average Vp/Vs ratio (κ) with the H–κ stacking technique that uses timing of direct and multiple P-to-S converted phases from the Moho interface. Synthetic tests reveal a dipping Moho interface, expected beneath an orogen, causes a systematic bias of H and κ potentially leading to misinterpretation. We thus applied corrections determined from synthetic data to remove the bias, providing better fit of recovered Moho depths with active seismic estimates. For each site, we also obtained independent H and κ estimates based on the timing of the strong Ps-phase. Our results show a gently south—southeast dipping European Moho at a depth of ∼24–30 km beneath the Northern Alpine Foreland, steepening rapidly towards the Europe—Africa suture zone to reach a maximum depth of ∼55 km. South of the suture, the Moho of the Adriatic crust, promontory of the African plate, is at ∼35–45 km depth. In the previously ill-constrained Western Alps, we found the European Moho at ∼30 km depth beneath the more external units dipping east—northeast to reach ∼50–55 km in the inner core of the Alps. The Poisson's ratio clearly correlates with the tectonic units that comprise the Alps. Average crustal values in the European Alpine Foreland are close to 0.25. In the Alps, we observe low values (0.22) in the highly deformed nappes of the Mesozoic Helvetic and Southern Alps indicating a thickening of felsic upper-crustal material. In contrast, the Poisson's ratio is significantly higher (0.26) in the Penninic and Austroalpine units near the suture zone. This rapid and significant change marks a clear rupture between the Alpine forelands and the suture domain. We assign this high Poisson's ratio to doubling of mafic lower crust consistent with results from previous active seismic experiments. A continuation of the lower crustal wedge into the central part of the Western Alps, however, seems unlikely based on low observed Poisson's ratios.

Genetic Differentiation among Populations of Cicerbita alpina (L.) Wallroth (Asteraceae) in the Western Alps

In this study we analyzed the genetic population structure of the hygrophilous tall-herb Cicerbita alpina in the western Alps because this group of mountain plants is underrepresented in the biogeographical literature. AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) fingerprints of 40 samples were analyzed from four populations situated in a transect from the southwestern Alps to the eastern part of the western Alps and one population from the Black Forest outside the Alps. Two genetic groups can be distinguished. The first group (A) comprises the populations from the northern and eastern parts of the western Alps, and the second group (B) comprises the populations from the southwestern Alps and the Black Forest. Group A originates most likely from at least one refugium in the southern piedmont regions of the Alps. This result provides molecular evidence for a humid climate at the southern margin of the Alps during the Würm glaciation. Group B originates presumably from western or northern direction and we discuss two possible scenarios for the colonization of the Alps, i.e. (1) long-distance dispersal from southwestern refugia and (2) colonization from nearby refugia in the western and/or northern Alpine forelands. The study demonstrates that the target species harbours considerable genetic diversity, even on a regional scale, and therefore is a suitable model for phylogeographic research.

Interactions between climate and vegetation during the Lateglacial period as recorded by lake and mire sediment archives in Northern Italy and Southern Switzerland

We reconstruct the vegetational history of the southern side of the Alps at 18,000–10,000 cal yr BP using previous and new AMS-dated stratigraphic records of pollen, stomata, and macrofossils. To address potential effects of climatic change on vegetation, we compare our results with independent paleoclimatic series (e.g. isotope and chironomid records from the Alps and the Alpine forelands). The period before 16,000 cal yr BP is documented only at the lowland sites. The previous studies used for comparison with our new Palughetto record, however, shows that Alpine deglaciation must have started before 18,000–17,500 cal yr BP south of the Alps and that deglaciated sites were colonized by open woods and shrublands ( Juniperus, tree Betula, Larix, Pinus cembra) at ca 17,500 cal yr BP. The vegetational history of a new site (Palughetto, 1040 m a.s.l.) is consistent with that of previous investigations in the study region. Our results show three conspicuous vegetational shifts delimited by statistically significant pollen zones, at ca 14,800–14,400, 13,300–12,800 and 11,600–11,200 cal yr BP. At sites situated above 1000 m a.s.l. (e.g. Palughetto, Pian di Gembro) forests expanded in alpine environments at ca 14,500 cal yr BP (onset of Bølling period, GI-1 in the Greenland ice record). At the same time, rather closed treeline communities of the lowlands were replaced by dense stands of Pinus sylvestris and Betula. These early forests and shrublands consisted of Larix, P. cembra, Juniperus, P. sylvestris, Pinus mugo, and Betula, and had become established at ca 16,000 cal yr BP, probably in response to a temperature increase. If combined with other records from the Southern Alps, our data suggest that treeline ascended by ca 800–1000 m in a few centuries at most, probably as a consequence of climatic warming at the beginning of the Bølling period. At 13,100–12,800 cal yr BP the onset of a long-lasting decline of P. sylvestris was accompanied by the expansion of Quercus and other thermophilous tree taxa below ca 600 m a.s.l. This vegetational change was probably induced by a shift to warmer climatic conditions before the onset of the Younger Dryas, as indicated by independent paleoclimatic records. Only a few centuries later, at ca 12,700–12,500 cal yr BP, an expansion of herbaceous taxa occurred in the lowlands as well as at higher altitudes, documenting an opening of forested habitats. This change coincided with the beginning of the Younger Dryas cooling (GS-1), which according to the paleoclimatic series (e.g. oxygen isotope series), started at 12,700–12,600 cal yr BP and lasted for about 1000 years. Environments south of the Alps responded markedly to climatic warming at the onset of the Holocene (11,600–11,500 cal yr BP). Thermophilous trees that had declined during the Younger Dryas re-expanded very rapidly in the lowlands and reached the high altitude sites below ca 1500 m a.s.l. within a few centuries at most. Our study implies that the synchronous vegetational changes observed over wide areas were probably a consequence of abrupt climatic shifts at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and during the Lateglacial. We emphasize that important vegetational changes such as the expansion of forests occurred millennia before the onset of similar processes in northwestern and central Europe.

Discussion on “Evolution of the European Cenozoic Rift System: interaction of the Alpine and Pyrenean orogens with their foreland lithosphere” by P. Dèzes, S.M. Schmid and P.A. Ziegler, Tectonophysics 389 (2004) 1–33

The evolution and origin of the European Cenozoic Rift System (ECRIS) is a matter of debate for several decades (e.g., Tapponnier, 1977; Bergerat, 1987; Ziegler, 1992; Michon et al., 2003). This rift system was characterized by the development of several grabens in the Pyrenean and Alpine forelands and by a magmatic activity starting at the K/T transition. Dezes et al. (2004) propose an additional reappraisal and interpret the ECRIS formation and the associated volcanism as resulting from the Alpine and Pyrenean collision and the emplacement of a mantle plume at depth below western Europe. Our remarks on this paper will be focused on three different topics which make the final conclusions of Dezes et al. (i.e., origin of the extension in the ECRIS) highly questionable.

The VOTALP Mesolcina Valley Campaign 1996 – concept, background and some highlights

The Mesolcina Valley campaign was an important part of the VOTALP project. Its main goals were the study of the effects of thermal wind systems on horizontal and vertical ozone transport over various distances, and on local production of ozone in an Alpine valley. The field measurements took place in the Mesolcina Valley in southern Switzerland in July and August 1996. The Mesolcina Valley is typical for the Alps for its size and its rural character, and contains an important traffic route. Ground-based and airborne instruments were deployed to obtain a four-dimensional chemical and physical picture of the valley atmosphere and the surroundings. Field measurements were complemented by numerical modeling studies. An overview of the campaign, its geographic background, and the measurement plan is given together with selected highlights of the results obtained so far. A synoptic-climatological approach tries to evaluate the representativeness of the observation days. It was found that during the campaign representative data for typical ozone days were collected, while extreme events did not occur. The main results of the campaign are that very high pollutant concentrations at the Alpine crests are the effect of advective, larger-scale transport, mainly from the Alpine forelands. The valley is very effective in pumping air into elevated layers during the day, with the slope winds probably carrying the bulk of the air volume to higher levels. Up to five times the valley volume may be exported during one upwind phase. Net local production is estimated to be approximately 3–8 ppb h −1 of ozone, but seems to be compensated by dry deposition. This indicates that the Alpine valleys may be important net sinks of air pollutants, which may lead to negative impacts on the Alpine ecosystems.

Post-Glacial Fire, Vegetation, and Human History on the Northern Alpine Forelands, South-Western Germany

Post-Glacial Fire, Vegetation, and Human History on the Northern Alpine Forelands, South-Western Germany

Paleosedimentologic Correlation of Orogenic and Epeirogenic Events in Western Alpine Mobile Belt and Forelands: ABSTRACT

Paleosedimentologic Correlation of Orogenic and Epeirogenic Events in Western Alpine Mobile Belt and Forelands: ABSTRACT