Alistair Darling Research Articles

The miracle of the markets: Identifying key campaign events in the Scottish independence referendum using betting odds

This paper analyses campaign dynamics in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum by integrating time-stamped polling releases with highly granular evolving price data created by online political gambling markets. Our analysis models the relationship between poll releases and prices available on a Yes result, allowing us to measure the extent to which the release of each new poll represented an informational ‘shock’. We then seek to control for polling shocks in order to isolate and analyse the effects of key campaign events; combining a multivariate time series analysis with confirmatory testing based on a micro-analysis of the movement in gambling prices in the minutes and hours following these events. We conclude that the second leaders' debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling was the most influential event of the campaign, initiating a surge in the Yes side's estimated probability of victory.

Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, and the Great Financial Crisis: Leadership traits and policy responses

Gordon Brown’s management of the Great Financial Crisis was one of the few successes of his premiership and was seen as a distinctly personal triumph. Yet, in the aftermath of the crisis, Brown’s leadership led to a damaging split on economic policy with his Chancellor, Alistair Darling. To explain the role of Brown and Darling in the crisis and its aftermath, this article uses quantitative content analysis of speech to develop leadership trait profiles of both men. Both leaders score high in proactive beliefs; Brown especially had great faith in his ability to shape economic matters. Brown scores consistently higher than Darling in the use of power imagery, whilst the Chancellor maintained a significantly more complex worldview than the Prime Minister. Although many factors contributed to the turmoil and ultimate demise of the Brown government, the personality of the Prime Minister, and the clash of policy beliefs and decision-making style with his Chancellor, played a key role. This indicates that explanations of economic crises should include analysis of the policy preferences and decision-making styles of the leaders who manage them. Further, studies of the leadership styles of political leaders, which usually focus solely on the predominant leader, should instead examine interactions and conflicts amongst the several personalities at the top of a government.

2010 Budget and Finance Act

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling presented his 2010 Budget Budget 2010, “ Securing the recovery”, available at www.hm-treasury.gov.uk. to Parliament on 24 March 2010 following his Pre-Budget Report (PBR) on 9 December 2009. See Douglas Roxburgh, “2009 Pre-Budget Report”, European Taxation [online], 27 January 2010. This note deals with the Budget proposals not included in the PBR and with the Finance Act 2010 (FA) itself, which became law on 8 April 2010 in advance of the UK parliamentary general election on 6 May 2010.

Step up and be counted with NACC

On 11 March 2010, the National Association for Colitis and Crohn′s Disease (NACC) launched the campaign ′Step Up and Be Counted′ at 11 Downing Street, calling for a national inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patient register. Hosted by Maggie Darling, wife of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the Rt Hon Alistair Darling MP, the launch event was supported by celebrities who are all personally affected by ulcerative colitis and Crohn′s disease, including Emmerdale actor Jeff Hordley, singer Rick Parfitt Junior and TV personality Carrie Grant.

Doing more with less: Implications of the recession for health care

The latest UK recession began in the April–June quarter of 2008. It was the longest recession on record nationally. By January 2010 the UK was, technically, out of recession and, in the words of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, ‘we are on a path to recovery’. But, as the Chancellor qualified in an announcement on 26 January, ‘I'm confident but I'll always remain cautious’. Darling's note of caution is quite right, for as many commentators have indicated, this is an extremely lacklustre recovery (BBC, 2010). Germany and France, Europe's two largest economies, came out of recession during the summer of 2009, followed by the United States. The latest economic figures from the UK, however, show a much limited upward trend, and the risk remains that the economy could dip back into recession. The technical calculations remain with the Office for National Statistics which is expected to publish final figures in March 2010.

2009 Pre-Budget Report

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling presented his 2009 Pre-Budget Report to the House of Commons on 9 December 2009. This note summarizes the taxation proposals intended to appear in the Finance Act 2010.

Darling draws the line

In his pre-budget report, chancellor Alistair Darling promised that ‘crucial front line services’ will not bear the brunt of any cuts in public spending. He then defined the NHS front line services that will be protected in one word: ‘hospitals’

News

Another half a million primary children are to benefit from free school meals, Alistair Darling announced in his Pre-budget Report.

You get what you pay for.

As Nursing Standard went to press, chancellor Alistair Darling was putting the finishing touches to his pre-budget report. Speculation was rife that he would announce efficiency savings - or cuts to use more direct language - across the public sector, including the NHS.

2009 Budget

The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, presented his second Budget to the House of Commons on 22 April 2009 following his Pre-Budget Report (PBR) on 24 November 2008, which was reviewed in the February 2009 Issue of European Taxation. This note deals with the Budget proposals not included in the PBR.

Running faster but standing still

I STARTED WRITING this on the verge of yet another budget speech. The past few years have been kind to the early years sector in general, although parents have often been left feeling somewhat perplexed by what the government has seemingly given them. What could we hope for from this year's budget? What would Alistair Darling deliver in terms of cuts or, even, gains? The answer was not much, really.

Funding for post-16 places

Extra investment has been allocated for post-16 places, the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, announced in his Budget.

2008 Pre-Budget Report

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, presented his second Pre-Budget Report (PBR) Pre-Budget Report, November 2008, Cm 7484, “Facing global challenges: Supporting people through difficult times”, available at www.hm-treasury.gov.uk. to the House of Commons (the House) on 24 November 2008. This note deals with the proposals in the PBR that significantly affect VAT, income tax (IT), national insurance contributions (NIC), corporation tax (CT) and stamp duty land tax (SDLT). There are no significant proposals relating to capital gains tax or inheritance tax.

Companies Act Schemes of Arrangement and Rescue: The Lost Cousin of Restructuring Practice?

It is an axiom of English corporate insolvency law that rescue of the company is the paramount consideration for insolvency practitioners and directors. This approach is evidenced by the legislative reforms introduced by the Enterprise Act 2002 in the realm of administration and more recently by Mr Alistair Darling MP’s announcement that Company Voluntary Arrangements (CVAs) with moratoriums are to be reformed following a consultation that will start in June 2009. Recent reform activity in the area of company law has also affected restructuring practice. Section 895 of the Companies Act 2006 replaces the scheme of arrangement provisions in s.425 Companies Act 1985. There have been a number of calls for reform of the scheme of arrangement provisions so as to make them more useful for facilitating company rescue. In this article these reforms, and some supposed missed opportunities, are critically examined.

Child poverty a priority — but does budget go far enough?

Reducing child poverty is central to the Government’s agenda, according to chancellor Alistair Darling.

Talks demanded with chancellor over the staging of pay awards

The RCN is demanding urgent talks with incoming chancellor of the exchequer Alistair Darling over his predecessor’s proposal to stage this year’s nurses’ pay award.

Just £30 a week away from poverty

Watching Jeremy Paxman interviewing secretary of state for work and pensions Alistair Darling on BBC Newsnight the other week, I learnt with great interest that the income for families on the poverty line is £247 a week.

New Labour’s Welfare Reforms: Anything New?

The Labour Government's path to legislative reform of the welfare system has been characterised by internal party dissension, a mauling from both Opposition parties, and repeated defeats in the House of Lords. Two major statutes have been enacted, but with the promise of further modernising reforms to come, tactical considerations in the run-up to a General Election suggest that there may be a lull before the next legislative combat. In the House of Commons the 1999 Welfare Reform and Pensions Bill suffered repeated rebellions from Labour backbenchers, and even though the scale of the revolt declined steadily, from 67 in May to 54 in the final vote in November 1999, risking further difficulties might be considered unwise in the short term of the electoral cycle. Despite many protests, and a background of controversy over the amount of the state retirement pension, the Government refused to back away, and few concessions were made. Having survived one serious battle on welfare reform in 1999, the Government returned for a second round with another controversial set of measures in 2000. Taken together these statutes have made important changes to the social security system, but how far can they be described as a 'New Beveridge?' Both the Welfare Reform and Pensions Act 1999 and the Child Support, Pensions and Social Security Act 2000 are now on the statute book, so it is perhaps a useful moment to reflect on these measures and also to look at their historical context. Alistair Darling, the Secretary of State for Social Security, has repeatedly indicated how welfare reform is central to the Government's whole modernising programme. The aim has been to 'modernise the welfare state so that it meets the modem needs of our country ... I believe our reforms, based on principle and recognising the changes in our society over the past 50 years, will help lay the foundations for a modem welfare state in the 21st century.' In this endeavour, Mr Darling has obviously been following the line promoted by both No. 10 and No. 11 Downing Street. However, the Government's 'big agenda for change and reform' has certainly had a rough passage so far. The Prime Minister has repeatedly declared that 'Welfare reform goes to the heart of what Labour stands for. It is the issue on which our government will be judged'.2

A new champion

Alistair Darling, Secretary of State for Social Security, came in for a bit of a ribbing in parliament when his new status as ‘champion’ of older people was raised during a debate. There were some predictably heavy handed jokes but Mr Darling would not be drawn. He responded by making several references to people over the age of 50. Those involved in nursing older people will take little heart from this emphasis. Over 50 may seem old to the whipper-snappers in the Houses of Parliament. To those older people in their seventh, eighth and ninth decades who suffer the age discrimination meted out by the health service it is no age at all.

Therapeutic Earnings Limit to Increase

On the last page of the White Paper A New Contract for Welfare ‐ Support for the Disabled, the Rt Hon Alistair Darling MP, Secretary of State for Social Security, states: ‘We are increasing the therapeutic earnings limit in Incapacity Benefit to ensure that people with a long‐term illness or disability who undertake therapeutic work can benefit from higher wage rates.’The week before the paper was published, a letter requesting exactly this change was sent to Alistair Darling signed by service user groups and representatives of the Royal College of Psychiatrists, Mind, the National Schizophrenia Fellowship, the Manic Depression Fellowship, ITON Ireland, the Richmond Fellowship, Birmingham and City Universities, the Centre for Mental Health Services Development at King's College, London, Professor Geoff Shepherd, Jack Ashley, Elizabeth Bray and me.Who says no‐one ever listens!