Risk Stratification Algorithms Research Articles

Long-term outcome and risk stratification in compensated advanced chronic liver disease after HCV-cure.

Around 750,000 patients per year will be cured of HCV infection until 2030. Those with compensated advanced chronic liver disease remain at risk for hepatic decompensation and de novo HCC. Algorithms have been developed to stratify risk early after cure; however, data on long-term outcomes and the prognostic utility of these risk stratification algorithms at later time points are lacking. We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 2335 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (liver stiffness measurement≥10kPa) who achieved HCV-cure by interferon-free therapies from 15 European centers (median age 60.2±11.9y, 21.1% obesity, 21.2% diabetes).During a median follow-up of 6 years, first hepatic decompensation occurred in 84 patients (3.6%, incidence rate: 0.74%/y, cumulative incidence at 6y: 3.2%); 183 (7.8%) patients developed de novo HCC (incidence rate: 1.60%/y, cumulative incidence at 6y: 8.3%), with both risks being strictly linear over time.Baveno VII criteria to exclude (FU-liver stiffness measurement <12kPa and follow-up platelet count >150g/L) or rule-in (FU-liver stiffness measurement ≥25kPa) clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) stratified the risk of hepatic decompensation with proportional hazards. Estimated probability of CSPH discriminated patients developing versus not developing hepatic decompensation in the gray zone (ie, patients meeting none of the above criteria).Published HCC risk stratification algorithms identified high-incidence and low-incidence groups; however, the size of the latter group varied substantially (9.9%-69.1%). A granular "HCC-sustained virologic response" model was developed to inform an individual patient's HCC risk after HCV-cure. In patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease, the risks of hepatic decompensation and HCC remain constant after HCV-cure, even in the long term (>3y). One-time post-treatment risk stratification based on noninvasive criteria provides important prognostic information that is maintained during long-term follow-up, as the hazards remain proportional over time.

MAFLD in adults: non-invasive tests for diagnosis and monitoring of MAFLD.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is the liver manifestation of a metabolic syndrome and is highly prevalent in the general population. There has been significant progress in non-invasive tests for MAFLD, from the diagnosis of fatty liver and monitoring of liver fat content in response to intervention, to evaluation of liver fibrosis and its change over time, and from risk stratification of patients within the context of clinical care pathways, to prognostication. Various non-invasive tests have also been developed to assess for fibrotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, which has emerged as an important diagnostic goal, particularly in the context of clinical trials. Non-invasive tests can be used to diagnose clinically significant portal hypertension so that intervention can be administered to reduce the risk of decompensation. Furthermore, the use of risk stratification algorithms can identify at-risk patients for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance. Beyond the liver, various tests that evaluate cardiovascular disease risk, assess sarcopenia and measure patient reported outcomes, can be utilized to improve the care of patients with MAFLD. This review provides an up-to-date overview of these non-invasive tests and the limitations of liver biopsy in the management of patients with MAFLD.

Loss of ATRX and DAXX in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: Association with recurrence risk, cellular phenotype, and heterogeneity

Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs) comprise a heterogeneous group of neoplasms in terms of biological behavior. This study aims to develop a practical algorithm based on emerging biomarkers, including chromatin-remodeling molecules DAXX/ATRX/H3K36me3, in conjunction with established prognostic factors, such as WHO grade and size. In immunohistochemical analyses, 18 of the 111 (16.2%) primary PanNETs showed DAXX or ATRX loss in a mutually exclusive manner. DAXX/ATRX loss was significantly correlated with higher recurrence risk and better predicted postoperative recurrence than WHO grade. We proposed a novel algorithm for stratifying patients with resectable PanNET into three groups according to recurrence risk: (A) WHO Grade 1 and ≤2 cm (very low-risk); for the others, (B) retained DAXX/ATRX (low-risk) and (C) DAXX/ATRX complete/heterogeneous loss (high-risk). Furthermore, we elucidated the intratumoral heterogeneities of PanNETs. Among cases with DAXX or ATRX loss, nine cases demonstrated heterogeneous loss of expression of DAXX/ATRX/H3K36me3. The majority of cases with DAXX/ATRX loss, either homogeneous or heterogeneous loss, showed uniform α-cell-like phenotype (ARX1+/PDX1−). In cases of metastatic or recurrent tumors, the expression pattern was identical to that observed in at least part of the primary tumor. In some instances, the expression pattern differed among different metastatic or recurrent tumors of the same patient. In summary, we propose a clinically useful and practical algorithm for postoperative recurrence risk stratification in PanNETs, by combining DAXX/ATRX status with WHO grade and size. Moreover, our findings highlighted the frequent spatiotemporal heterogeneity of chromatin-remodeling molecule expression in PanNETs with an α-cell phenotype, offering insights into tumorigenesis.

Point-of-care high-sensitivity cardiac troponin in suspected acute myocardial infarction assessed at baseline and 2 h.

Strategies to assess patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction (AMI) using a point-of-care (POC) high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) assay may expedite emergency care. A 2-h POC hs-cTnI strategy for emergency patients with suspected AMI was derived and validated. In two international, multi-centre, prospective, observational studies of adult emergency patients (1486 derivation cohort and 1796 validation cohort) with suspected AMI, hs-cTnI (Siemens Atellica® VTLi) was measured at admission and 2 h later. Adjudicated final diagnoses utilized the hs-cTn assay in clinical use. A risk stratification algorithm was derived and validated. The primary diagnostic outcome was index AMI (Types 1 and 2). The primary safety outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiac events incorporating AMI and cardiac death. Overall, 81 (5.5%) and 88 (4.9%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively, had AMI. The 2-h algorithm defined 66.1% as low risk with a sensitivity of 98.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 89.3%-99.9%] and a negative predictive value of 99.9 (95% CI 99.2%-100%) for index AMI in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort, 53.3% were low risk with a sensitivity of 98.9% (95% CI 92.4%-99.8%) and a negative predictive value of 99.9% (95% CI 99.3%-100%) for index AMI. The high-risk metrics identified 5.4% of patients with a specificity of 98.5% (95% CI 96.6%-99.4%) and a positive predictive value of 74.5% (95% CI 62.7%-83.6%) for index AMI. A 2-h algorithm using a POC hs-cTnI concentration enables safe and efficient risk assessment of patients with suspected AMI. The short turnaround time of POC testing may support significant efficiencies in the management of the large proportion of emergency patients with suspected AMI.

Predictive value of the World falls guidelines algorithm within the AGELESS-MELoR cohort

AimThe World Falls Guidelines (WFG) Task Force published a falls risk stratification algorithm in 2022. However, its adaptability is uncertain in low- and middle-income settings such as Malaysia due to different risk factors and limited resources. We evaluated the effectiveness of the WFG risk stratification algorithm in predicting falls among community-dwelling older adults in Malaysia. MethodsData from the Malaysian Elders Longitudinal Research subset of the Transforming Cognitive Frailty into Later-Life Self-Sufficiency cohort study was utilized. From 2013–2015, participants aged ≥55 years were selected from the electoral rolls of three parliamentary constituencies in Klang Valley. Risk categorisation was performed using baseline data. Falls prediction values were determined using follow-up data from wave 2 (2015–2016), wave 3 (2019) and wave 4 (2020–2022). ResultsOf 1,548 individuals recruited, 737 were interviewed at wave 2, 858 at wave 3, and 742 at wave 4. Falls were reported by 13.4 %, 29.8 % and 42.9 % of the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups at wave 2, 19.4 %, 25.5 % and 32.8 % at wave 3, and 25.8 %, 27.7 % and 27.0 % at wave 4, respectively. At wave 2, the algorithm generated a sensitivity of 51.3 % (95 %CI, 43.1–59.2) and specificity of 80.1 % (95 %CI, 76.6–83.2). At wave 3, sensitivity was 29.4 % (95 %CI, 23.1–36.6) and specificity was 81.6 % (95 %CI, 78.5–84.5). At wave 4, sensitivity was 26.0 % (95 %CI, 20.2–32.8) and specificity was 78.4 % (95 %CI, 74.7–81.8). ConclusionThe algorithm has high specificity and low sensitivity in predicting falls, with decreasing sensitivity over time. Therefore, regular reassessments should be made to identify individuals at risk of falling.

Global perspective on nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis - prevalence, clinical impact, economic implications and management strategies.

The metabolically-based liver disease, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is the most common cause of chronic liver disease currently affecting 38% of the world's adult population. NAFLD can be progressive leading to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), liver transplantation, liver cancer, liver-related mortality and is associated with decreased quality of life from impaired physical functioning and increased healthcare resource utilisation. However, screening for NAFLD is cost-prohibitive but screening for high risk NAFLD (NAFLD with F2 fibrosis or greater) is imperative. To review the global perspective on NAFLD and NASH METHODS: We retrieved articles from PubMed using search terms NAFLD, prevalence, clinical burden, economic burden and management strategies. NAFLD/NASH shows geographical variation across the globe. Highest prevalence rates are in South America and the Middle East and North Africa; lowest prevalence is in Africa. NAFLD's economic impact is from direct and indirect medical costs and loss in worker productivity. It is projected that, over the next two decades, the total cost of NAFLD and diabetes will exceed $1.5 trillion (USD). Risk stratification algorithms identifying "high risk NAFLD" were made following non-invasive tests for NAFLD identification and fibrosis development. These algorithms should be used in primary care and endocrinology settings so timely and appropriate interventions (lifestyle and cardiometabolic risk factor management) can be initiated. To reduce the burgeoning burden of NAFLD/NASH, management should include risk stratification algorithms for accurate identification of patients, linkage to appropriate settings, and initiation of effective treatment regimens.

The prevalence and clinical features of syncope in patients with concealed Brugada Syndrome

Abstract Background Brugada Syndrome (BS) is an inherited rhythm-disorder with risk of sudden-cardiac-death defined by a specific ST-segment elevation pattern in precordial ECG-leads either spontaneous or provoked by Na-channel-blocker-drug-provocation-test with Ajmaline. Scarce data denote that the prevalence of non-arrhythmic syncope is high in BS and leads to diagnostic confusions. Head-up tilt test (HUT) is a diagnostic tool used to assess autonomic function in patients with suspicious syncopal events. Purpose Our aim was to elucidate the frequency of non-arrhythmic syncope in BS patients, compare it with non-BS population with suspicious syncope and reveal possible clinical relations. Methods Adult patients with an history of Ajmaline-induced BS and patients evaluated for suspicious syncope with non-arrhyhtmic-features without BS less than 55-years-old were prospectively and consecutively evaluated with resting and higher-inter-costal-space-ECGs (HICS-ECGs), cardiac-examination and routine HUT in our center. After the exclusion of subjects with resuscitated-sudden cardiac-death/documented-malignant-dysrhythmia, any cardiac-disease, anti-arrhythmic-use, bundle-branch-blocks, pre-excitations and ventricular hypertrophies; 52 BS(+) subjects ([mean±SD] age, 33,6±14, [range]18-55 years) (male n [%overall]:33 [63.2%]) and 35 age-sex matched BS(-)subjects ([mean±SD] age, 34,1±13, [range]18-55 years) were enrolled in the study. All ECGs and HUT test results were interpreted manually by two experienced cardiologists for BS and Brugada-type-ECG-patterns (BTEPs). Results The clinical characteristics of patients with and without BS and statistical findings are presented in Table-1. BS(+) patients were slimmer, revealing more BTEPs by baseline HICS-ECGs. Baseline heart-rates were lower, PR-intervals and P-wave-duration were significantly higher in BS(+) patients. HUT-positivity of BS(+) patients were significantly higher [(39% (n: 20 [male n: 13]) vs 19% (n: 7 [male n: 4]) (p= 0,01)] revealing significantly more mixed-syncope and orthostatic hypotension response in BS(+) subjects. No cardioinhibitory response was revealed. Conclusions Non arrhtymic syncope is found to be highly prevalent in middle-aged-subjects and especially males with BS (+) without an apparent cardiac-disorder. Knowing this considerably important clinical aspect might effect risk stratification algorithms and might prevent unnecessary high-risk interventions and device decisions. Non-invasive indices regarding the delayed conduction features in ECG characteristics of BS(+) patients and a higher vagal state might be proposed as one of the probable mechanisms revealing the higher prevalence of non-arrhythmic-syncope in BS.Table-1

Advances in dilated cardiomyopathy evaluation via cardiac MRI diagnosis and prognosis: a literature review

With a variety of aetiologies and clinical presentations, Dilated Cardiomyopathy (DCM) presents considerable hurdles for both diagnosis and treatment. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) has become a useful diagnostic technique for DCM, providing information on the anatomy, physiology, and tissue properties of the heart. Using both well-established and recently developed CMR techniques, this review investigates the function of CMR in the diagnosis and treatment of idiopathic DCM. Using reliable databases, a thorough search of the literature was carried out with an emphasis on papers released between 2014 and 2024. English-language literature examining the clinical uses of CMR in idiopathic DCM were included in the inclusion criteria. A vital component of the assessment of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR), which provides thorough insights into the anatomy and function of the heart. Precise evaluation of tissue properties, ventricular function, and cardiac shape is made possible by CMR, which helps DCM patients get an accurate diagnosis and risk assessment. The use of advanced CMR methods, such as T1 mapping and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) imaging, yields significant insights into the underlying aetiologies and myocardial fibrosis. Furthermore, customized prognostic evaluations are provided by CMR-based risk stratification algorithms that include many factors, improving clinical decision-making in DCM treatment. Continuous developments are expected to improve prognostic utility and accuracy, which will need efforts to lower prices and increase accessibility in order to achieve better patient outcomes and wider clinical usage

Machine learning in cancer-associated thrombosis: hype or hope in untangling the clot.

The goal of machine learning (ML) is to create informative signals and useful tasks by leveraging large datasets to derive computational algorithms. ML has the potential to revolutionize the healthcare industry by boosting productivity, enhancing safe and effective patient care, and lightening the load on clinicians. In addition to gaining mechanistic insights into cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT), ML can be used to improve patient outcomes, streamline healthcare delivery, and spur innovation. Our review paper delves into the present and potential applications of this cutting-edge technology, encompassing three areas: i) computer vision-assisted diagnosis of thromboembolism from radiology data; ii) case detection from electronic health records using natural language processing; iii) algorithms for CAT prediction and risk stratification. The availability of large, well-annotated, high-quality datasets, overfitting, limited generalizability, the risk of propagating inherent bias, and a lack of transparency among patients and clinicians are among the challenges that must be overcome in order to effectively develop ML in the health sector. To guarantee that this powerful instrument can be utilized to maximize innovation in CAT, clinicians can collaborate with stakeholders such as computer scientists, regulatory bodies, and patient groups.

Personalized prognosis stratification of newly diagnosed glioblastoma applying a statistical decision tree model

PurposeGlioblastoma (GBM) is the most frequent glioma in adults with a high treatment resistance resulting into limited survival. The individual prognosis varies depending on individual prognostic factors, that must be considered while counseling patients with newly diagnosed GBM. The aim of this study was to elaborate a risk stratification algorithm based on reliable prognostic factors to facilitate a personalized prognosis estimation early on after diagnosis.MethodsA consecutive patient cohort with confirmed GBM treated between 2010 and 2021 was retrospectively analyzed. Clinical, radiological, and molecular parameters were assessed and included in the analysis. Overall survival (OS) was the primary outcome parameter. After identifying the strongest prognostic factors, a risk stratification algorithm was elaborated with estimated odds of survival.ResultsA total of 462 GBM patients were analyzed. The strongest prognostic factors were Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), extent of tumor resection, and adjuvant treatment. Patients with CCI ≤ 1 receiving tumor resection had the highest survival odds (88% for 10 months). On the contrary, patients with CCI > 3 receiving no adjuvant treatment had the lowest survival odds (0% for 10 months). The 10-months survival rate in patients with CCI > 3 receiving adjuvant treatment was 56% for patients younger than 70 years and 22% for patients older than 70 years.ConclusionA risk stratification algorithm based on significant prognostic factors allowed a personalized early prognosis estimation at the time of GBM diagnosis, that can contribute to a more personalized patient counseling.

Comprehensive Investigation of Angiogenesis, PASS Score and Immunohistochemical Factors in Risk Assessment of Malignancy for Paraganglioma and Pheochromocytoma.

A challenging task in routine practice is finding the distinction between benign and malignant paragangliomas and pheochromocytomas. The aim of this study is to conduct a comparative analysis of angiogenesis by assessing intratumoral microvascular density (MVD) with immunohistochemical (IHC) markers (CD31, CD34, CD105, ERG), and S100 immunoreactivity, Ki67 proliferative index, succinate dehydrogenase B (SDHB) expressiveness, tumor size with one the most utilized score Pheochromocytoma of Adrenal Gland Scales Score (PASS), using tissue microarray (TMA) with 115 tumor samples, 61 benign (PASS < 4) and 54 potentially malignant (PASS ≥ 4). We found no notable difference between intratumoral MVD and potentially malignant behavior. The group of potentially malignant tumors is significantly larger in size, has lower intratumoral MVD, and a decreased number of S100 labeled sustentacular cells. Both groups have low proliferative activity (mean Ki67 is 1.02 and 1.22, respectively). Most tumors maintain SDHB expression, only 6 cases (5.2%) showed a loss of expression (4 of them in PASS < 4 group and 2 in PASS ≥ 4). PASS score is easily available for assessment and complemented with markers of biological behavior to complete the risk stratification algorithm. Size is directly related to PASS score and malignancy. Intratumoral MVD is extensively developed but it is not crucial in evaluating the malignant potential.

C-reactive Protein and Risk of Right Ventricular Dysfunction and Mortality in Patients With Acute Symptomatic Pulmonary Embolism

BackgroundRight ventricle (RV) dysfunction increases the risk of death from pulmonary embolism (PE). C-reactive protein (CRP) might identify RV inflammation and dysfunction in patients with PE. MethodsThis cohort study enrolled consecutive stable patients with acute PE between 2017 and 2023. We stratified patients by quartiles of CRP. We evaluated the association between CRP quartiles and the presence of RV dysfunction, and used multivariable models to assess for an association between CRP and the outcomes of all-cause and PE-specific mortality during the 30 days of follow-up after PE diagnosis. ResultsThe study included 633 stable patients with PE. Patients without RV dysfunction had significantly lower median (IQR) CRP levels compared with patients with RV dysfunction (n=509, 31.7 [10.0–76.4]mg/L vs n=124, 45.4 [16.0–111.4]mg/L; P=0.018). CRP showed a statistically significant positive association with the presence of RV dysfunction (P<0.01). On multivariable analysis, CRP level was not significantly associated with 30-day all-cause mortality (adjusted odds ratio [OR] per mg/L increment, 1.00; 95% CI, 1.00–1.01; P=0.095), but higher CRP was associated with significantly higher PE-related mortality (adjusted OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00–1.01; P=0.026). Compared with patients in CRP quartile 1, patients in quartiles 2, 3, and 4 had a stepwise increase in the adjusted odds of 30-day all-cause death of 2.41 (P=0.148), 3.04 (P=0.062), and 3.15 (P=0.052), respectively. ConclusionsAs an indicator of RV dysfunction, CRP may improve risk stratification algorithms for hemodynamically stable patients with acute symptomatic PE.

Epidemiology of NAFLD – Focus on diabetes

There is increasing appreciation of the complex interaction between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and insulin resistance. Not only is the prevalence of NAFLD disease high among patients with T2D, the liver disease is also more progressive. Currently, the global prevalence of NAFLD in the general population (2016–2019) is 38 %. The prevalence of T2D among those with NAFLD is approximately 23 % while the prevalence of NAFLD among those with T2D can be as high as 70 %. The prevalence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is approximately 7 % in the general population and 37 % among patients with T2D. Globally, the MENA and Latin America regions of the world appear to have the highest burden of both NAFLD and T2D. Compared to those with NAFLD but without T2D, those with NAFLD and T2D are at a much higher risk for disease progression to cirrhosis and for decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and all-cause mortality. Given that highly effective new treatments are available for T2D, high risk NAFLD with T2D should be considered for these regimens. This requires implementation of risk stratification algorithms in the primary care and endocrinology practices to identify those patients at highest risk for adverse outcomes.

Impact of Flagging/Risk Stratification System on Complications in Hospitalist Hip Fracture Co-management: Retrospective Cohort Study.

Hip fractures are associated with high morbidity and mortality, the rates of which can be improved by comprehensive care. To improve hospitalist co-management of hip fractures, we designed and implemented hip fracture template (HFT), a flagging and risk stratification algorithm system. It includes consideration of perioperative management and preventative measures against hip fractures. We examined its effect on morbidity in patients with hip fractures and the factors associated with complications. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture. The primary outcome was the perioperative complication rate, comparing patients managed with and without HFT. Multivariate analysis was adjusted for age, gender, and any significant variables shown in univariate analysis. HFT was used in 121 patients and not used in 147 patients. In univariate analysis, patients were less likely to have complications if HFT was used (19.0% vs. 29.9%, P = 0.047), but there was no difference in length of stay (17days vs. 17days, P = 0.27) or in-hospital-mortality (0.8% vs. 0.7%, P = 1.00) between the groups. In adjusted analysis, patients managed by HFT had lower likelihood of complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.31-0.98). Among patients managed by HFT, those with revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) ≥ 1 were more likely to have complications in both univariate (42.1% vs. 14.7%, P = 0.01) and adjusted analysis (OR 3.37, 95% CI 1.03-10.84). Patients with hip fractures managed with HFT were less likely to have complications, especially those with RCRI ≥ 1, suggesting benefits of using HFT.

Enhanced Risk Stratification for Children and Young Adults with B-Cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: A Children’s Oncology Group Report

Current strategies to treat pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia rely on risk stratification algorithms using categorical data. We investigated whether using continuous variables assigned different weights would improve risk stratification. We developed and validated a multivariable Cox model for relapse-free survival (RFS) using information from 21199 patients. We constructed risk groups by identifying cutoffs of the COG Prognostic Index (PICOG) that maximized discrimination of the predictive model. Patients with higher PICOG have higher predicted relapse risk. The PICOG reliably discriminates patients with low vs. high relapse risk. For those with moderate relapse risk using current COG risk classification, the PICOG identifies subgroups with varying 5-year RFS. Among current COG standard-risk average patients, PICOG identifies low and intermediate risk groups with 96% and 90% RFS, respectively. Similarly, amongst current COG high-risk patients, PICOG identifies four groups ranging from 96% to 66% RFS, providing additional discrimination for future treatment stratification. When coupled with traditional algorithms, the novel PICOG can more accurately risk stratify patients, identifying groups with better outcomes who may benefit from less intensive therapy, and those who have high relapse risk needing innovative approaches for cure.

Prodromal multiple sclerosis: considerations and future utility

A multiple sclerosis (MS) prodrome has recently been described and is characterised by increased rates of healthcare utilisation and an excess frequency of fatigue, bladder problems, sensory symptoms and pain, in the years leading up to clinical onset of disease. This important observation may have several potential applications including in the identification of risk factors for disease, the potential to delay or prevent disease onset and early opportunities to alter disease course. It may also offer possibilities for the use of risk stratification algorithms and effective population screening. If standardised, clearly defined and disease specific, an MS prodrome is also likely to have a profound influence on research and clinical trials directed at the earliest stages of disease. In order to achieve these goals, it is essential to consider experience already gleaned from other disorders. More specifically, in some chronic neurological disorders the understanding of disease pro-drome is now well advanced and has been successfully applied. However, understanding of the MS prodrome remains at an early stage with key questions including the length of the prodrome, symptom specificity and potential benefits of early intervention as yet unanswered. In this review we will explore the evidence available to date and suggest future research strategies to address unanswered questions. In addition, whilst current understanding of the MS prodrome is not yet sufficient to justify changes in public health policy or MS management, we will consider the practical utility and future application of the MS prodrome in a wider health care setting.

Epigenetic Contributions to Clinical Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is among the leading causes of death worldwide. The discovery of new omics biomarkers could help to improve risk stratification algorithms and expand our understanding of molecular pathways contributing to the disease. Here, ASSIGN-a cardiovascular risk prediction tool recommended for use in Scotland-was examined in tandem with epigenetic and proteomic features in risk prediction models in ≥12 657 participants from the Generation Scotland cohort. Previously generated DNA methylation-derived epigenetic scores (EpiScores) for 109 protein levels were considered, in addition to both measured levels and an EpiScore for cTnI (cardiac troponin I). The associations between individual protein EpiScores and the CVD risk were examined using Cox regression (ncases≥1274; ncontrols≥11 383) and visualized in a tailored R application. Splitting the cohort into independent training (n=6880) and test (n=3659) subsets, a composite CVD EpiScore was then developed. Sixty-five protein EpiScores were associated with incident CVD independently of ASSIGN and the measured concentration of cTnI (P<0.05), over a follow-up of up to 16 years of electronic health record linkage. The most significant EpiScores were for proteins involved in metabolic, immune response, and tissue development/regeneration pathways. A composite CVD EpiScore (based on 45 protein EpiScores) was a significant predictor of CVD risk independent of ASSIGN and the concentration of cTnI (hazard ratio, 1.32; P=3.7×10-3; 0.3% increase in C-statistic). EpiScores for circulating protein levels are associated with CVD risk independent of traditional risk factors and may increase our understanding of the etiology of the disease.

Residential Address Amplifies Health Disparities and Risk of Infection in Individuals With Diabetic Foot Ulcers.

To determine the association between social determinants of health (SDOH) and a diagnosis of diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) infection. Targeted interrogation of electronic health record data using novel search engines to analyze individuals with a DFU infection during a 5-year period (2013-2017) was performed. We extracted geolocated neighborhood data and SDOH characteristics from the National Neighborhood Data Archive and used univariate and multiple logistic regression to evaluate associations with outcomes in the population with diabetes. Among 4.3 million people overall and 144,564 individuals with diabetes seen between 2013 and 2017, 8,351 developed DFU, of which cases 2,252 were complicated by a DFU infection. Sex interactions occurred, as men who experienced a DFU infection more frequently identified as having nonmarried status than their female counterparts. For the population with DFU infection, there were higher rates for other SDOH, including higher neighborhood disadvantaged index score, poverty, nonmarriage, and less access to physician/allied health professionals (all P < 0.01). In multiple logistic regression, those individuals who developed DFU infection came from neighborhoods with greater Hispanic and/or foreign-born concentrations (odds ratio 1.11, P = 0.015). We found significant differences in neighborhood characteristics driving a higher risk for DFU infection in comparisons with the grouping of individuals with diabetes overall, including increased risk for individuals with Hispanic and/or foreign-born immigration status. These data strongly support the need to incorporate SDOH, particularly ethnic and immigration status, into triage algorithms for DFU risk stratification to prevent severe diabetic foot complications and move beyond biologic-only determinants of health.

Abstract A011: Proteomic expression using exosomes in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) patients to inform risk stratification

Abstract Introduction Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN), the most common type of pancreatic mucinous cysts, harbor risks of malignant progression of approximately 50% and 5% when found in the main duct (MD) and branch duct (BD), respectively. Surgical resection is standard of care in patients with high-risk stigmata and in some “indeterminate” cases, while surveillance modalities, which may include invasive imaging, are recommended for cases of cysts with “worrisome features”. Given the poor prognosis of late-stage pancreatic cancer, it is critical to accurately risk-stratify patients with IPMNs. We conducted a pilot study to evaluate the association of IPMN features with protein markers using extracellular vesicles (EVs), including exosomes, isolated from the blood of patients with resected IPMNs. Experimental procedure We evaluated 19 patients with IPMNs who underwent surgical resection (Whipple or distal pancreatectomy). Blood was collected before surgery and the EVs were isolated from plasma using an alternating current electrokinetics (ACE) platform. The concentration of 52 EV proteins was measured using a multiplex immunoassay. Surgical explant pathology reports were available and reviewed on all 19 patients. Data are presented as average concentration and 95% CI, and p-values represent the two-tailed t-test. Results Average age was 69 years (range: 47-83) and, of the 19 patients, 12 (63%) were male. Seventeen patients never smoked or were former smokers (quit &amp;gt; 20 years) before sample collection. A total of 14 patients had acute or chronic pancreatitis (7 historical; 7 found in surgical explant) while 4 patients had previously undiagnosed pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN) at the time of surgery. In our EV analysis, we found multiple EV protein biomarkers to be elevated in patients with various IPMN characteristics. Marker A was significantly elevated in patients with high-grade dysplasia (n=10) compared to low-grade dysplasia (n=9) (10.8 [8.4-13.2] vs. 7.5 [5.8 - 9.2] pg/mL, respectively, p = 0.0241), as defined by surgical explant pathology. When examining 13 patients with main-duct or mixed-type IPMNs, markers B, C, and D were elevated compared to the 6 patients with branch-duct or unspecified IPMNs (marker B: 1.9 [1.4-2.3] vs. 1.1 [0.9-1.4] ng/mL, p=0.0099; marker C: 524.3 [400.2-648.4] vs. 318.8 [209.9-427.7] pg/mL, p=0.0102; marker D: 65.8 [43.8-87.7] vs. 39.9 [31.7-48.1] pg/mL, p=0.0281). Conclusions In this pilot study that evaluated 19 patients with IPMNs, we identified multiple EV proteins that are differentially expressed in subgroups of patients. Our findings suggest that these differentially expressed proteomic markers can lead to the development of an algorithm for IPMN risk-stratification and possibly help discern histopathologic grade. Future studies will expand on these preliminary results with the aim of identifying a panel of biomarkers that can risk-stratify IPMNs to guide medical decision-making. Citation Format: Harmeet Dhani, Roberta V. Alexander, Juan Pablo Hinestrosa, Jesus Izaguirre-Carbonell, Dove Keith, Paul R. Billings, Gregory Cote', Rosalie Sears. Proteomic expression using exosomes in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) patients to inform risk stratification [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference in Cancer Research: Pancreatic Cancer; 2023 Sep 27-30; Boston, Massachusetts. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(2 Suppl):Abstract nr A011.

Pediatric Adrenocortical Carcinoma: The Nuts and Bolts of Diagnosis and Treatment and Avenues for Future Discovery.

Adrenocortical tumors (ACTs) are infrequent neoplasms in children and adolescents and are typically associated with clinical symptoms reflective of androgen overproduction. Pediatric ACTs typically occur in the context of a germline TP53 mutation, can be cured when diagnosed at an early stage, but are difficult to treat when advanced or associated with concurrent TP53 and ATRX alterations. Recent work has demonstrated DNA methylation patterns suggestive of prognostic significance. While current treatment standards rely heavily upon surgical resection, chemotherapy, and hormonal modulation, small cohort studies suggest promise for multi-tyrosine kinases targeting anti-angiogenic pathways or immunomodulatory therapies. Future work will focus on novel risk stratification algorithms and combination therapies intended to mitigate toxicity for patients with perceived low-risk disease while intensifying therapy or accelerating discoveries aimed at improving survival for patients with difficult-to-treat disease.