ABSTRACT To accurately predict the risk level of spontaneous coal combustion, we introduce an improved grey wolf optimization strategy (IGWO) to optimize the generalized regression neural network (GRNN), thereby establishing the IGWO-GRNN coal spontaneous combustion risk level prediction model. The superiority of the IGWO algorithm over the grey wolf optimization algorithm (GWO), whale optimization algorithm (WOA) and particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) was verified. Fifty sets of sample data of spontaneous coal combustion in the mining area were selected as the research object, and the data were randomly divided into the training set and the test set according to the ratio of 8:2. The prediction results of the IGWO-GRNN prediction model were obtained and compared with those of the GWO-GRNN, GRNN, BP (Backpropagation), and GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) models, and the absolute value of the relative error was introduced as an evaluation index of the model prediction accuracy. The results demonstrate that IGWO outperforms GWO, WOA, and PSO in terms of optimization efficiency, with the IGWO-GRNN prediction model yielding the most accurate results. Specifically, the maximum absolute value of the relative error does not exceed 4.27%, and the average relative error is only 3.29%, indicating a substantial improvement over the other models. Therefore, this study achieves high-precision prediction under small-sample data, which provides an important reference value for the small-sample prediction problem in the mining field.
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