The use of fossil fuels should be reduced in future due to limited resources and increasing ecological impacts. Therefore, increased interest and incentives have been created for the development of electricity supply utilising renewable energy sources. Solar thermal generation represents an energy conversion device which has long-range potential and is applicable to most geographical regions. This paper describes the methodology used to study the substitution potential of solar energy in isolated power systems. An existing algorithm for system reliability evaluation and the corresponding production simulation program were modified and extended to more accurately account for the mode of operation and intermittent features of solar systems. The preservation of fossil fuels and installed capacity of the conventional plants, and the reduction of emissions are determined by implementing solar thermal stations. Sample computations for a real system in Jordan are carried out to define the substitution potential of solar stations with respect to conventional generation alternatives. The results are analysed and discussed according to the total cost and solar multiplier. The higher the multiplier, the lower the required breakeven cost of solar thermal stations.
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