Alcohol-attributable Fractions Research Articles

Trends in alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality in Germany from 2000 to 2021: A modelling study.

We aimed to assess: (i) trends in alcohol-specific - that is, fully attributable - morbidity and mortality in the German adult population aged 15-69 between 2000 and 2021; and (ii) changes in alcohol-attributable disease burden - that is, fully and partially alcohol-attributable categories - for 2006, 2012, 2018 and 2021. Morbidity data was pulled from hospitalisation and rehabilitation statistics and mortality data was pulled from the causes of death registry. Alcohol use, adjusted for unrecorded consumption, was estimated using the Epidemiological Survey of Substance Abuse and triangulated with per capita consumption from annual sales data. For major disease categories, alcohol-attributable fractions were estimated for males and females by age groups (15-29, 30-49, 50-69 years) using the comparative risk assessment methodology. For males and females, the age-standardised rate of alcohol-specific morbidity peaked in 2012 and decreased thereafter showing a steep decline from 2019 to 2021. The rates of alcohol-specific mortality decreased constantly from 2000 to 2019 but increased from 2019 to 2021. Compared to 2006 the age-standardised alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality rates in males and females were lower in 2021. For both sexes, the age-standardised alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality rates and the proportions of morbidity/mortality rates relative to all-cause morbidity/mortality decreased between 2006 and 2021. The declines in alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality are in line with decreases in consumption and signal that the importance of alcohol in health service utilisation and mortality has weakened. Sex ratios in morbidity and mortality do not indicate a strong converging trend.

Quantifying alcohol-attributable disability-adjusted life years to others than the drinker in Aotearoa/New Zealand: A modelling study based on administrative data.

Quantifying the health burden of alcohol has largely focused upon harm to drinkers, which is an underestimate. There is a growing literature on alcohol's harm to others (HTO), but it lacks the systematic transfer of HTO into a comparative risk assessment framework. This study calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD), interpersonal violence and traffic injury due to another's drinking. This study is a disease burden analysis, using modelling of DALYs for New Zealand in 2018. The study took place among the Aotearoa/New Zealand population in 2018. The involvement of others' drinking was obtained from prevalence, alcohol-attributable fraction studies and administrative data. Disability weights (DW) for FASD were adapted from fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) weights using a Beta-Pert probability distribution; for interpersonal injury, DWs used hospital events linked with injury compensation; for traffic injury, DWs used hospital events. Populations were stratified by ethnicity, age group and gender. A descriptive comparison was made with a previous estimate of DALYs for drinkers. In 2018, 78 277 healthy life years were lost in Aotearoa/New Zealand due to alcohol's HTO. The main contributor (90.3%) was FASD, then traffic crashes (6.3%) and interpersonal violence (3.4%). The indigenous population, Māori, was impacted at a higher rate (DALYs among Māori were 25 per 1000 population; among non-Māori 15 per 1000 population). The burden of HTO was greater than that to drinkers (DALYs HTO = 78 277; DALYs drinkers = 60 174). Disability from fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) appears to be a major contributor to alcohol's harm to others in Aotearoa/New Zealand. Taking FASD into account, the health burden of harm to others is larger than harm to the drinker in Aotearoa/New Zealand, and ethnicity differences show inequity in harm to others. Quantification of the burden of harm informs the value of implementing effective alcohol policies and should include the full range of harms.

Estimated Deaths Attributable to Excessive Alcohol Use Among US Adults Aged 20 to 64 Years, 2015 to 2019

Alcohol consumption is a leading preventable cause of death in the US, and death rates from fully alcohol-attributable causes (eg, alcoholic liver disease) have increased in the past decade, including among adults aged 20 to 64 years. However, a comprehensive assessment of alcohol-attributable deaths among this population, including from partially alcohol-attributable causes, is lacking. To estimate the mean annual number of deaths from excessive alcohol use relative to total deaths among adults aged 20 to 64 years overall; by sex, age group, and state; and as a proportion of total deaths. This population-based cross-sectional study of mean annual alcohol-attributable deaths among US residents between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2019, used population-attributable fractions. Data were analyzed from January 6, 2021, to May 2, 2022. Mean daily alcohol consumption among the 2 089 287 respondents to the 2015-2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System was adjusted using national per capita alcohol sales to correct for underreporting. Adjusted mean daily alcohol consumption prevalence estimates were applied to relative risks to generate alcohol-attributable fractions for chronic partially alcohol-attributable conditions. Alcohol-attributable fractions based on blood alcohol concentrations were used to assess acute partially alcohol-attributable deaths. Alcohol-attributable deaths for 58 causes of death, as defined in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Alcohol-Related Disease Impact application. Mortality data were from the National Vital Statistics System. During the 2015-2019 study period, of 694 660 mean deaths per year among adults aged 20 to 64 years (men: 432 575 [66.3%]; women: 262 085 [37.7%]), an estimated 12.9% (89 697 per year) were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption. This percentage was higher among men (15.0%) than women (9.4%). By state, alcohol-attributable deaths ranged from 9.3% of total deaths in Mississippi to 21.7% in New Mexico. Among adults aged 20 to 49 years, alcohol-attributable deaths (44 981 mean annual deaths) accounted for an estimated 20.3% of total deaths. The findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that an estimated 1 in 8 total deaths among US adults aged 20 to 64 years were attributable to excessive alcohol use, including 1 in 5 deaths among adults aged 20 to 49 years. The number of premature deaths could be reduced with increased implementation of evidenced-based, population-level alcohol policies, such as increasing alcohol taxes or regulating alcohol outlet density.

Assessing the health impacts of transnational corporations: a case study of Carlton and United Breweries in Australia

BackgroundThe practices of transnational corporations (TNCs) affect population health through unhealthy products, shaping social determinants of health, or influencing the regulatory structures governing their activities. There has been limited research on community exposures to TNC policies and practices. The aim of this paper was to adapt existing Health Impact Assessment methods that were previously used for both a fast food and an extractives industry corporation in order to assess Carlton and United Breweries (CUB) operations within Australia. CUB is an Australian alcohol company owned by a large transnational corporation Asahi Group Holdings. Data identifying potential impacts were sourced through document analysis, including corporate literature; media analysis, and 12 semi-structured interviews. The data were mapped against a corporate health impact assessment framework which included CUB’s political and business practices; products and marketing; workforce, social, environmental and economic conditions; and consumers’ adverse health impacts. We also conducted an ecological study for estimating alcohol attributable fractions and burdens of death due to congestive heart disease, diabetes mellitus, stroke, breast cancer, bowel cancer and injury in Australia. Beer attributable fractions and deaths and CUB’s share were also estimated.ResultsWe found both positive and adverse findings of the corporation’s operations across all domains. CUB engage in a range of business practices which benefit the community, including sustainability goals and corporate philanthropy, but also negative aspects including from taxation arrangements, marketing practices, and political donations and lobbying which are enabled by a neoliberal regulatory environment. We found adverse health impacts including from fetal alcohol spectrum disorder and violence and aggression which disproportionately affect Indigenous and other disadvantaged populations.ConclusionOur research indicates that studying a TNC in a rapidly changing global financialised capitalist economy in a world which is increasingly being managed by TNCs poses methodological and conceptual challenges. It highlights the need and opportunity for future research. The different methods revealed sufficient information to recognise that strong regulatory frameworks are needed to help to avoid or to mediate negative health impacts.

Assessing the Costs of Excessive Alcohol Consumption in Minnesota

Alcohol consumption, particularly excessive drinking, incurs a high societal cost. This study aimed to apply current state-specific data from 1 state, Minnesota, to established national methods for estimating the societal cost of excessive alcohol consumption for 2 purposes: first, to update the cost estimate for the state and, second, to understand the potential benefits of using state-specific data versus a national apportionment strategy for economic burden estimates. In 2021, established methods were used to apply alcohol-attributable fractions for health care, lost productivity, crime, and other effects (e.g., motor vehicle crashes) to 2019 Minnesota data. The main outcome measure was the annual prevalence cost (incurred and paid each year) of excessive alcohol use in Minnesota from the societal perspective. Secondary outcome measures were the cost of specific outcomes (e.g., crime), different types of consumption (e.g., drinking during pregnancy), the cost to government payers, and the cost per drink. The societal cost of alcohol use in Minnesota in 2019 was nearly $8 billion dollars (2019 USD) or $1,383 per resident. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate on the basis of apportionment of a national estimate. The cost of alcohol use in Minnesota is considerable. Geographically specific and current cost estimates can inform decision making about the public health impact of excessive alcohol use and the cost effectiveness of prevention strategies. Evidence-based prevention strategies to reduce alcohol use include increased alcohol taxes, enhanced enforcement of laws prohibiting sales to minors, and electronic screening and brief intervention.

Alcohol-Attributable Deaths Help Drive Growing Socioeconomic Inequalities In US Life Expectancy, 2000-18.

Socioeconomic gaps in life expectancy have widened substantially in the United States since 2000. Yet the contribution of specific causes to these growing disparities remains unknown. We used death records from the National Vital Statistics System and population data from Current Population Surveys to quantify the contribution of alcohol-attributable causes of death to changes in US life expectancy between 2000 and 2018 by sex and socioeconomic status (as measured by educational attainment). During the study period, the gap in life expectancy between people with low (high school diploma or less) compared with high (college degree) levels of education increased by three years among men and five years among women. Between 2000 and 2010 declines in cardiovascular disease mortality among people with high education made major contributions to growing inequalities. In contrast, between 2010 and 2018 deaths from a cause with an alcohol-attributable fraction of 20percent or more were a dominant driver of socioeconomic divergence. Increased efforts to implement cost-effective alcohol control policies will be essential for reducing health disparities.

The Societal Cost of Excessive Drinking in North Carolina, 2017.

BACKGROUND Excessive drinking, including binge and heavy drinking, is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in North Carolina. In 2010, excessive drinking cost North Carolina $7.03 billion, and this analysis aimed to update this figure for 2017.METHODS Following the methods of Sacks, et al. (2015), we obtained proxies for the 2010 and 2017 incidence and price for 26 alcohol-attributable cost components. We then multiplied each component's 2010 cost by the incidence trend (2017 incidence/2010 incidence) and price trend (2017 price/2010 price) to estimate the 2017 cost. Finally, we summed these cost components to calculate the total cost and allocated them by payer and county.RESULTS Excessive drinking cost $9.72 billion in North Carolina in 2017, which equals approximately $2.09 per standard drink. Government paid $4.43 billion (45.6%), drinkers paid $3.76 billion (38.7%), and persons other than the drinker paid $1.53 billion (15.7%).LIMITATIONS These methods relied on alcohol-attributable fractions, which were calculated using scientific literature and national data. If consumption patterns differ between the United States and North Carolina, these fractions may not generalize. Scaling processes may over- or underestimate individual cost components, so total state costs should be interpreted as estimates.CONCLUSIONS The societal costs from excessive drinking are high but spread across public sectors. This can make it difficult to attribute this burden to alcohol. While drinkers paid less than half of the costs of excessive drinking, a broad range of stakeholders bore the burden. Evidence-based strategies to reduce excessive drinking may decrease these costs.

Improving Estimates of Alcohol-Attributable Deaths in the United States: Impact of Adjusting for the Underreporting of Alcohol Consumption

Self-reported alcohol consumption in U.S. public health surveys covers only 30%-60% of per capita alcohol sales, based on tax and shipment data. To estimate alcohol-attributable harms using alcohol-attributable fractions, accurate measures of total population consumption and the distribution of this drinking are needed. This study compared methodological approaches of adjusting self-reported survey data on alcohol consumption to better reflect sales and assessed the impact of these adjustments on the distribution of average daily consumption (ADC) levels and the number of alcohol-attributable deaths. Prevalence estimates of ADC levels (i.e., low, medium, and high) among U.S. adults who responded to the 2011-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS; N = 2,198,089) were estimated using six methods. BRFSS ADC estimates were adjusted using the National Alcohol Survey, per capita alcohol sales data (from the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System), or both. Prevalence estimates for the six methods were used to estimate average annual alcohol-attributable deaths, using a population-attributable fraction approach. Self-reported ADC in the BRFSS accounted for 31.3% coverage of per capita alcohol sales without adjustments, 36.1% using indexed-BRFSS data, and 44.3% with National Alcohol Survey adjustments. Per capita sales adjustments decreased low ADC prevalence estimates and increased medium and high ADC prevalence estimates. Estimated alcohol-attributable deaths ranged from approximately 91,200 per year (BRFSS unadjusted; Method 1) to 125,200 per year (100% of per capita sales adjustment; Method 6). Adjusting ADC to reflect total U.S. alcohol consumption (e.g., adjusting to 73% of per capita sales) has implications for assessing the impact of excessive drinking on health outcomes, including alcohol-attributable death estimates.

Causality and initiation of alcohol control policy. A response to Allamani.

In a recent commentary, Allamani asked how one can establish causality in epidemiological research, and specifically about causality as it relates to alcohol control policy. Epidemiology customarily uses a sufficient-component cause model, where a sufficient cause for an outcome is determined by a set of minimal conditions and events that inevitably produce the stated outcome. While this model is theoretically clear, its operationalisation often involves probabilistic elements. Recent advances in agent-based modelling may improve operationalisation. The implications for alcohol control policy from this model are straightforward: the so-called alcohol-attributable fraction denotes the cases of morbidity or mortality which would not have happened in the absence of alcohol use.

Alcohol taxation, alcohol consumption and cancers in Lithuania: A case study.

Aims:The aim of this contribution was to estimate the impact of the last significant alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania in 2017 on alcohol consumption, incident cancer cases, and cancer mortality, as well as the number of cancer outcomes that could have potentially been averted in 2018 had larger increases in alcohol excise taxation been applied.Design:Statistical modelling was used to estimate the change in alcohol per capita consumption following the tax increase, and alcohol-attributable fraction methodology was then used to estimate the associated cancer incidence and mortality. Potential increases of current excise duties were modelled in two steps. First, beverage-specific price elasticities of demand were used to predict the associated decreases in consumption and cancer outcomes, and second, the outcomes arising from the actual numbers and the modelled numbers were compared.Method:Data were taken from the following sources: alcohol consumption data from Statistics Lithuania and the WHO, cancer data from the International Agency of Research on Cancer, and risk relations and elasticities of demand from published meta-analyses.Results:A total of 15,857 new cancer cases (8,031 in women and 7,826 in men) and 8,534 cancer deaths (3,757 in women and 4,777 in men) were recorded in Lithuania in 2018. Using the attributable fraction methodology, we estimate that 4.8% of 761 of these new cancer cases were attributable to alcohol use (284 in women; 477 in men), as well as 5.5% or 466 cancer deaths (115 in women; 351 in men). With the taxation increase of 2017, 45 new cases and 24 deaths will be averted over the next 10 years. Further taxation increases of 100% could double the number of new cancer cases averted or saved.Conclusion:In a high-consumption European country like Lithuania, alcohol use is an important and avoidable risk factor for cancer. Taxation is an important measure to reduce the alcohol-attributable cancer burden.

The combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on life-expectancy trends in Europe.

BackgroundSmoking, obesity and alcohol abuse greatly affect mortality and exhibit a distinct time dynamic, with their prevalence and associated mortality rates increasing and (eventually) declining over time. Their combined impact on secular trends in life expectancy is unknown but is relevant for understanding these trends. We therefore estimate the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on life-expectancy trends in Europe.MethodsWe used estimated national age-specific smoking-, obesity- and alcohol-attributable mortality fractions for 30 European countries by sex, 1990–2014, which we aggregated multiplicatively to obtain lifestyle-attributable mortality. We estimated potential gains in life expectancy by eliminating lifestyle-attributable mortality and compared past trends in life expectancy at birth (e0) with and without lifestyle-attributable mortality. We examined all countries combined, by region and individually.ResultsAmong men, the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on e0 declined from 6.6 years in 1990 to 5.8 years in 2014, mainly due to declining smoking-attributable mortality. Among women, the combined impact increased from 1.9 to 2.3 years due to mortality increases in all three lifestyle-related factors. The observed increase in e0 over the 1990–2014 period was 5.0 years for men and 4.0 years for women. After excluding lifestyle-attributable mortality, this increase would have been 4.2–4.3 years for both men and women.ConclusionWithout the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol, the increase over time in life expectancy at birth would have been smaller among men but larger among women, resulting in a stable increase in e0, parallel for men and women.

Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe.

Although alcohol consumption is an important public health issue in Europe, estimates of future alcohol-attributable mortality for European countries are rare, and only apply to the short-term future. We project (age-specific) alcohol-attributable mortality up to 2060 in 26 European countries, after a careful assessment of past trends. For this purpose we used population-level country-, sex-, age- (20–84) and year-specific (1990–2016) alcohol-attributable mortality fractions (AAMF) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which we adjusted at older ages. To these data we apply an advanced age-period-cohort projection methodology, that avoids unrealistic future differences and crossovers between sexes and countries. We project that in the future, AAMF levels will decline in all countries, and will converge across countries and sexes. For 2060, projected AAMF are, on average, 5.1% among men and 1.4% among women, whereas in 2016 these levels were 10.1% and 3.3%, respectively. For men, AAMF is projected to be higher in Eastern and South-western Europe than in North-western Europe. All in all, the share of mortality due to alcohol is projected to eventually decline in all 26 European countries. Achieving these projected declines will, however, require strong ongoing public health action, particularly for selected Eastern and North-western European countries.

The International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies: A New Method for Estimating Alcohol Health Harms With Application to Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Canada

Data regarding alcohol-caused health harms are required by policymakers for setting health priorities. However, these estimations are currently resource intensive, and estimates vary substantially by method. Thus, many countries, states, and regions do not track these harms. We address this limitation through creation of the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP), an open-access alcohol harms estimator. InterMAHP consists of methodologies and program software designed to assist alcohol research teams in estimating alcohol-attributable mortality and morbidity, by region. It is available at www.intermahp.cisur.ca. Application is illustrated through updated estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality in Canada. Mortality counts and per capita alcohol sales were obtained from Statistics Canada. Drinking and bingeing prevalences were obtained from the Canadian Substance Use Exposure Database. InterMAHP automated the calculations of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAF) using the modern AAF formulation and a gamma distribution to specify the continuous prevalence distribution of consumption. Alcohol is a leading driver of mortality in Canada. In 2016, more than 14,800 (95% CI [12,435, 17,127]) deaths were alcohol attributable, representing 5.5% of all deaths. This burden is borne disproportionately by men (79%). Among condition categories, cancer is the leading cause of alcohol-attributable mortality in both men and women. InterMAHP has the potential to assist public health researchers globally in estimating alcohol harms. This open-access software was used to estimate alcohol-attributable mortality in Canada, which was shown to be substantial. Policies proven to reduce alcohol consumption and related harms should be considered to reduce this burden.

The Health Impact of Alcohol on American Cities: Modeling the Local Burden of Current Alcohol Use in One Jurisdiction.

Measurement of alcohol use and associated harms at the city level is often incomplete or non-existent even though such data are often critical to informing local prevention strategies. This paper models how to generate local estimates of the morbidity, mortality, and cost of current alcohol use instead of abstaining. Administrative data sources, including medical examiner records, hospital records, and police records, among others, were used to obtain local estimates of alcohol-attributable outcomes. In 2018, we used alcohol-attributable fractions and scaled national estimates to quantify the burden of current alcohol use in Baltimore, MD, in 2013. Fifty-two percent of Baltimore adults reported past 30-day drinking. There were 276 alcohol-attributable deaths in 2013, and 106 (38.4%) of these were persons other than the drinker. In 2013, current alcohol use cost $582.3 million in Baltimore City. This burden was distributed across drinkers (40.1%), persons other than the drinker (21.3%), and the government (38.6%). It is possible to quantify this burden at the local level, and these data could be used to inform evidence-based alcohol policy strategies at the local level.

Estimated cancer burden attributable to the alcohol consumption in Poland in 2016

Introduction. Alcohol exposure is a highly preventable cancer risk factor. European Code Against Cancer recommends to reduce alcohol intake of any type in order to decrease cancer risk. Poles have drunk more and more alcohol, reaching the average level of consumption at 9.55 liters of pure alcohol per capita in 2018. This phenomenon shows that alcohol consumption is constantly a great public health challenge in Poland. Material and methods. Material in our study was an epidemiological data on cancer incidence in Poland sourced from the National Cancer Registry in Poland. Data on alcohol consumption comes from the State Agency for Prevention of Alcohol Related Problems survey conducted in Poland in 2002. Relative risks (RR) for alcohol consumption and cancer were sourced from the published studies. The alcohol attributable fraction (AAF) has been calculated with use of the formula provided in this work. Results. Results of our study show that in Poland in 2016, about 4.6% (7252) of all cancer cases were related to the alcohol consumption: women – 3.4% (2599), men – 5.8% (4653). Conclusions. In the face of epidemiological prognosis on increasing number of new cancer cases in Poland, there is a need to implement an immediate public health actions on reducing strong cancer risk factors such as alcohol consumption.

Implications of Cardioprotective Assumptions for National Drinking Guidelines and Alcohol Harm Monitoring Systems.

The existence and potential level of cardioprotection from alcohol use is contested in alcohol studies. Assumptions regarding the risk relationship between alcohol use and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) are critical when providing advice for national drinking guidelines and for designing alcohol harm monitoring systems. We use three meta-analyses regarding alcohol use and IHD risk to investigate how varying assumptions lead to differential estimates of alcohol-attributable (AA) deaths and weighted relative risk (RR) functions, in Australia and Canada. Alcohol exposure and mortality data were acquired from administrative sources and AA fractions were calculated using the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies. We then customized a recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) analysis to inform drinking guidelines internationally. Australians drink slightly more than Canadians, per person, but are also more likely to identify as lifetime abstainers. Cardioprotective scenarios resulted in substantial differences in estimates of net AA deaths in Australia (between 2933 and 4570) and Canada (between 5179 and 8024), using GBD risk functions for all other alcohol-related conditions. Country-specific weighted RR functions were analyzed to provide advice toward drinking guidelines: Minimum risk was achieved at or below alcohol use levels of 10 g/day ethanol, depending on scenario. Consumption levels resulting in ‘no added’ risk from drinking were found to be between 10 and 15 g/day, by country, gender, and scenario. These recommendations are lower than current guidelines in Australia, Canada, and some other high-income countries: These guidelines may be in need of downward revision.

Huge mortality fluctuations in working ages in Russia after 1991: is alcohol affordability in charge?

Abstract Background Mortality rates from various causes of death significantly fluctuated inRussia after1991,with especially profound amplitude observed in working age populations.This study was aimed to investigate association between affordability of alcohol(AA),pattern of alcohol drinking(PAT),and several selected mortality indicators in which large alcohol-attributable fractions were assumed. Methods Econometric estimation of AA was based on calculation of the ratio of index of real disposable income to vodka price index adjusted for consumer price index.PAT was defined as the index of proportion of strong alcohol beverages sold a year in retail.Spearman’s rho andKendall’s tau-b correlation coefficients were estimated to assess strengths of bivariate associations between AA,PAT and indices of all-cause mortality,of mortality from external causes(EC) and from diseases of circulatory system(CSDs)at working ages(M:16-59;F:16-54yrs)in a time-series analysis between1991 and2016.All indices were calculated with1991 taken as the reference year. All primary data were obtained from the Russian Federal StateStatistics Agency“RosStat”. Results All-cause mortality and mortality from CSDs in both males and females quite precisely repeated fluctuations of AA between 1991 and 2005(tau-b>0.600,p<0.050; rho>0.700,p<0.050). Same moderate to high strength associations were observed between mortality fromEC and AA for 1991-2003.The strongest moderate to high strength associations between PAT and all-cause,CSD and EC mortality were observed during the period after1995, when pattern of drinking began changing towards consumption of low alcohol content beverages, especially beer. PAT repeated fluctuations of AA between 1991 and 1999. Conclusions Our findings further support alcoholic hypothesis of huge mortality fluctuations in Russia during the period after 1991, suggesting that alcohol affordability had played the key role before 2005 and pattern of drinking influenced on mortality decline after 2005. Key messages Fluctuating affordability of alcohol was one of the major determinants of alcohol consumption, and, consequently, of fluctuations of alcohol-attributable mortality in Russia between 1991 and 2005. The ongoing from 1995 change of pattern of alcohol consumption from spirits to low alcohol content drinking likely significantly contributing to mortality decline observed in Russia after 2005.

Addiction Lives: Ingeborg Rossow.

Addiction Lives: Ingeborg Rossow.

The socioeconomic profile of alcohol-attributable mortality in South Africa: a modelling study

BackgroundGlobally, illness and life expectancy follow a social gradient that puts people of lower socioeconomic status (SES) at higher risk of dying prematurely. Alcohol consumption has been shown to be a factor contributing to socioeconomic differences in mortality. However, little evidence is available from low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to quantify mortality attributable to alcohol consumption in the adult (15+ years) general population of South Africa in 2015 by SES, age, and sex.MethodsA comparative risk assessment was performed using individual and aggregate data from South Africa and risk relations reported in the literature. Alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) and alcohol-attributable mortality rates were estimated for cause-specific mortality by SES, sex, and age. Monte Carlo simulation techniques were used to calculate 95% uncertainty intervals (UI).ResultsOverall, approximately 62,300 (95% UI 27,000–103,000) adults died from alcohol-attributable causes in South Africa in 2015, with 60% of deaths occurring in people in the low and 15% in the high SES groups. Age-standardized, alcohol-attributable mortality rates per 100,000 adults were highest for the low SES group (727 deaths, 95% UI 354–1208 deaths) followed by the middle (377 deaths, 95% UI 165–687 deaths) and high SES groups (163 deaths, 95% UI 71–289 deaths). The socioeconomic differences were highest for mortality from infectious diseases.People of low SES had a lower prevalence of current alcohol use but heavier drinking patterns among current drinkers. Among men, AAFs were elevated at low and middle SES, particularly for the middle and higher age groups (35+). Among women, AAFs differed less across SES groups and, in the youngest age group (15–34), women of high SES had elevated AAFs.ConclusionsAlcohol use contributed to vast socioeconomic differences in mortality. Where observed, elevated AAFs for people of low and middle SES arose from higher levels of consumption among current drinkers and not from the prevalence of current alcohol use per se. The findings can direct preventive measures and interventions on those at highest risk. Future research is needed to investigate socioeconomic differences in the risk functions relating alcohol use to cause-specific mortality.

Alcohol Consumption and Chronic Liver Disease Mortality in New Mexico and the United States, 1999-2013.

Current chronic liver disease (CLD) mortality surveillance methods may not adequately capture data on all causes of CLD mortality. The objective of this study was to calculate and compare CLD death rates in New Mexico and the United States by using both an expanded definition of CLD and estimates of the fractional impact of alcohol on CLD deaths. We defined CLD mortality as deaths due to alcoholic liver disease, cirrhosis, viral hepatitis, and other liver conditions. We estimated alcohol-attributable CLD deaths by using national and state alcohol-attributable fractions from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Alcohol-Related Disease Impact application. We classified causes of CLD death as being alcohol-attributable, non-alcohol-attributable, or hepatitis C. We calculated average annual age-adjusted CLD death rates during five 3-year periods from 1999 through 2013, and we stratified those rates by sex, age, and race/ethnicity. By cause of death, CLD death rates were highest for alcohol-attributable CLD. By sex and race/ethnicity, CLD death rates per 100 000 population increased from 1999-2001 to 2011-2013 among American Indian men in New Mexico (67.4-90.6) and the United States (38.9-49.4), American Indian women in New Mexico (48.4-63.0) and the United States (27.5-39.5), Hispanic men in New Mexico (48.6-52.0), Hispanic women in New Mexico (16.9-24.0) and the United States (12.8-13.1), non-Hispanic white men in New Mexico (17.4-21.3) and the United States (15.9-18.4), and non-Hispanic white women in New Mexico (9.7-11.6) and the United States (7.6-9.7). CLD death rates decreased among Hispanic men in the United States (30.5-27.4). An expanded CLD definition and alcohol-attributable fractions can be used to create comprehensive data on CLD mortality. When stratified by CLD cause and demographic characteristics, these data may help states and jurisdictions improve CLD prevention programs.