This study investigates the entrepreneurial decision to start a new independent business venture. Specifically, this study empirically tests and compares three prominent models of entrepreneurial intention: (1) Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behavior, (2) Shapero's Model of the Entrepreneurial Event, and (3) Davidsson's Determinants of Entrepreneurial Intentions. An extensive search and synthesis of literature germane to the entrepreneurial decision was undertaken to identify factors relevant to the decision to become an entrepreneur, resulting in the selection of three intentions-based models particularly worthy of further investigation and empirical testing. A representative entrepreneurship database (PSED) of 669 nascent US entrepreneurs was used to create individual comprehensive venture profiles, which were then used to code constructs identified in the three models under investigation. Structural equation modeling was used to analyze the predictive capability of the three intentions-based models. The study resulted in seven noteworthy findings. First, although Ajzen's model proved more parsimonious overall and more powerful in explaining entrepreneurial intentions, Shapiro's model proved more powerful in predicting entrepreneurial activity. Second, the specific components from each of the three intentions-based models exhibited explanatory power, and a composite model of these influential constructs increased R2 from an average of 0.34 among the three tested models to 0.43 in the composite model. Third, the 669 individual profiles created from the PSED panel data proved effective in measuring the constructs utilized in this study, and shows promise for providing a source of generalizable data for future entrepreneurship research. Fourth, an extensive two-day rater training workshop increased inter-rated reliability from 0.41 to 0.91, supporting the use of such training. Fifth, the study found that the entrepreneurial decision actually consists of two fundamental types of choices, one to pursue an entrepreneurial career and another to pursue a specific market opportunity. Sixth, wealth aspirations proved to vary tremendously among nascent entrepreneurs and often change dramatically over time. Finally, entrepreneurs in this study tended to underestimate the challenge of employee management, often dramatically adjusting their employee projections downward over time.
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