Air Transport Demand Research Articles

A conceptual model for demand forecasting and service positioning in the airline industry

PurposeThe main purpose of this paper is to develop a traffic demand forecasting model specifically on international sectors from the USA. Also, in this paper, the authors formulate the service positioning matrix (SPM) that enables airlines to accurately position their services and improve their process efficiency.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the authors explore international sectors and present a traffic demand model specifically for the same. The distribution of demand is assumed to follow a normal distribution and non‐service variables are introduced in the model. The behavior of the passenger has been captured by deriving the zonal income function. The variables have been drawn from microeconomic theory and the traditional gravity model of physics. The key innovations of the paper are fusion of the gravity model and microeconomic theory to develop the traffic demand model, and transformation of income to zonal income by deriving the aggregate zonal demand function; and development of a service positioning matrix for the airline industry.FindingsIn this paper, first, the authors have presented a conceptual model for demand forecasting through usage of zonal income. Second, in recognition of the value add the firm receives by identifying the nature of service and derived customer satisfaction levels, the authors have presented the SPM – a framework to help service providers to position themselves on any one of the four defined states. The empirical work is underway to solidify the conceptions and would provide a robust route demand forecasting model for international route contemplation for airlines operating from the USA and a service positioning matrix.Originality/valueAlthough many airline companies and professional bodies are involved in developing forecasts of air transport demand, detailed analysis of the characteristics of demand for air transport over long‐haul or international routes are less researched. This paper attempts to provide a framework for the airlines to forecast demand specifically on international routes operated from major metros of the USA and position their services by designing the service positioning matrix. The model fuses concepts from physics and micro‐economics to enhance the forecasting capabilities. Major benefits include route contemplation, effective fleet scheduling, decisions on aircraft and fuel purchases, improving service efficiency and developing optimal fare policies.

Enhancing the security of aircraft surveillance in the next generation air traffic control system

The U.S. air traffic control system is reliant on legacy systems that artificially limit air traffic capacity. With the demand for air transportation increasing each year, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has introduced the Next Generation (NextGen) upgrade to modernize the air traffic control system. Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), a key component of the NextGen upgrade, enables an aircraft to generate and broadcast digital messages that contain the GPS coordinates of aircraft. The incorporation of ADS-B is intended to provide enhanced accuracy and efficiency of surveillance as well as aircraft safety. The open design of the system, however, introduces some security concerns. This paper evaluates the limitations of the legacy systems currently used in air traffic control and explores the feasibility of employing format-preserving encryption, specifically the FFX algorithm, in the ADS-B environment. The ability of the algorithm to confuse and diffuse predictable message input is examined using message entropy as a metric. Based on the analysis, recommendations are provided that highlight areas which should be examined for inclusion in the ADS-B upgrade plan.

Airport runway scheduling

Airport runway optimization is an ongoing challenge for air traffic controllers. Since demand for air-transportation is predicted to increase, there is a need to realize additional take-off and landing slots through better runway scheduling. In this paper, we review the techniques and tools of operational research and management science that are used for scheduling aircraft landings and take-offs. The main solution techniques include dynamic programming, branch and bound, heuristics and meta-heuristics.

Calculation of HC, CO and NO<SUB align="right">x from civil aviation in Turkey in 2012

To meet the growing demand for air transport, airline companies doubled their aircraft numbers in Turkey, where civil aviation activities have shown great development in recent years. This increase in aircraft numbers resulted in an emission problem. Considering its impact on regional air quality, the growing emission amounts are at a non-negligible level. We especially take the busiest airports in Turkey into account, as these airports are generally located in widely populated areas. In this study, HC, CO, and NOx emission during the LTO for the selected five busiest airports were calculated by taking the 2012 domestic data of: 1) the General Directorate of State Airports Authority in Turkey; 2) EUROCONTROL’s average taxi time; 3) emission factors of ICAO engine datasheets. The calculated emission amounts are 215 tons/year, 1,483 tons/year, 1,417 tons/year, HC, CO, NOx respectively and the biggest emission factor is found to be as CO. Among the airports, Istanbul Ataturk Airport has the biggest polluting emission ratio.

Dynamic formation mechanism of airport competitiveness: The case of China

With the rapid development of Chinese economy, the demand of air transportation has increased enormously and airports are facing intensive competition, so the issue of how to enhance airport competitiveness has attracted serious concern of the public. The formation mechanism of airport competitiveness is very complex and the research is insufficient on this topic. In this paper, index system of airport competitiveness is built from four aspects: Regional Development, Production Factors, Demand Conditions and Support Industry. Dynamic formation mechanism of airport competitiveness is studied through Structure Equation Model as well as System Dynamic with the historical data of 25 Chinese airports from 2006 to 2010. Then the influencing mechanism of some important influencing factors is analyzed with the help of Vensim software, which verifies the rationality of the model. The results show that airport investment and city R&D inputs are the two most important influencing factors of airport competitiveness, which could provide guidance for decision makers on airport competitiveness cultivation.

Investigation in Passenger Air Traffic: Opportunities for Companies

Th is study ascertained that the air transport sector is still o f interest for the firms that choose to operate in it, despite the global economic crisis. It can be stated that there is a relationship between the economic trends of a continent and the trends in the passenger air transport sector. This relationship varies according to the geographical area considered. The emerging countries are those that are most affected by the increase in the demand for passenger air transport: of the emerging economies, the Middle East has the highest ratio of growth in passenger air traffic to gross domestic product growth. In addition, we identified the continents with an attitude to attract investments in creating large airport infrastructures. The Asian airports had the highest capacity to attract investments for large airport infrastructures, due to a phase of expansion of its air transport market. In contrast, Europe and A merica exh ibited a low attitude to attract investments in creating big airport infrastructures: in these continents, air transport market demand is in a maturity phase.

Capacidade do lado aéreo dos aeroportos brasileiros

O crescimento da demanda pelo transporte aéreo tem exigido ações para adequação da capacidade instalada nos aeroportos. Normalmente tais obras requerem vultosos recursos e trazem preocupações socioambientais. Uma ampliação em qualquer setor do aeroporto necessita uma visão sistêmica para garantir que a obra vai efetivamente propiciar ganhos ao aeroporto como um todo e não simplesmente se transferir o gargalo dentro do sistema. Neste artigo são mostrados os resultados dos cálculos das capacidades de dois subsistemas do lado aéreo dos vinte principais aeroportos brasileiros. Apenas em quatro aeroportos se mostra a ocorrência de um balanceamento entre as suas capacidades. Nos demais, um ou outro subsistema se caracteriza como limitante. Para esses casos, a ampliação da capacidade do aeroporto somente se viabiliza se as ações se voltarem para o subsistema limitado.

The impact of recession on airports' cost efficiency

The recent economic downturn took a severe toll on the aviation industry, leading to a significant contraction in air transport demand. In spite of that, airports' operating costs did not mirror the declining traffic trends and continued to increase during the same period. This paper sought to estimate the impact of the recession on airports' cost efficiency and financial performance. This is achieved by estimating the industry's short-run cost frontier over a balanced pool database of 194 airports observed between 2007 and 2009. Results show that airports struggled to control operating costs during the recession. Efficiency losses were estimated to be in excess of USD 5.5 billion, contributing to a significant reduction in industry operating margin. Results also suggest that airports that are corporatised and have not pursued extensive out-sourcing of activities are better able to manage their costs during periods of economic recession.

Effect of Data Communications on Pilot Situation Awareness, Decision Making, and Workload

Over the next decade, the demand for air transportation and other airspace services is expected to grow significantly. To address this, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is developing the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), which is a series of transformations designed to increase the capacity, safety, and security of air traffic operations. One major enabling technology being investigated is data communications (data comm), which is an electronic text-based message-transferring system between aircraft and ground stations. The literature on data communications outlines both potential benefits and costs. On the benefits side, subject matter experts and researchers have suggested that the switch to text-based communications will lead to reduced distractions and workload (Hoogeboom, Joosse, Hodgetts, Straussberger, & Schaefer, 2004; Navarro & Sikorski, 1999). In addition, data communication is thought to be more accurate and concise (Kerns, 1991; Prinzo, 2001). On the costs side, pilots have reported their belief that loss of information gained through the party line leads to a loss of situation awareness (Prinzo & Campbell, 2008; Hodgetts et al., 2005). Pilots seem particularly concerned with the loss of party line information related to weather, traffic, and holding situations (Pritchett & Hansman, 1997; Pritchett, Midkiff, & Hansman, 1995) and with the loss of information during the busier phases of flight near the airport (Pritchett et al., 1995). However, Boehm-Davis, Gee, Baker, and Medina-Mora (2010) found that while some information presented over the party line is important to pilots’ situation awareness, it may be possible to mitigate the loss of the party line by providing supplemental information with data comm. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of data communications on pilot situation awareness, decision making, and workload. This study built upon a previous study by Boehm-Davis, et al. (2010), which examined party line loss and mitigation strategies. In this study, a two-pilot crew was asked to fly two 40-minute flight scenarios using a low fidelity desktop computer-based flight simulator. The independent variable was communication modality, which was a within-subjects variable. Participants flew one scenario with all communication with air traffic control handled via auditory communication channels. In this condition, they were able to overhear party line communications between other aircraft and ATC. Participants flew the other scenario with all communication with ATC handled via data communications. In this condition, the pilots received clearances from ATC via data comm, and also received data comm messages regarding flight events. Situation awareness and workload were assessed during the flight using the Situation Present Assessment Method (SPAM) (Durso & Dattel, 2004). In this method, participants are interrupted from their primary task with queries about their situation. Accuracy and response time are used as measures of their situation awareness and workload. Subjective workload was measured at the end of each flight, using the NASA-Task Load Index (NASA-TLX) (Hart & Staveland, 1988). Pilot decision making was also assessed. Throughout the experiments, a former airline pilot observed the participants and assessed their awareness, planning, decision making, and actions in response to specific flight events. No significant differences were found for the SPAM workload or situation awareness times or in the number of correct responses to the SPAM situation awareness questions. Likewise, there was no significant difference in subjective workload between conditions, as measured with the NASA-TLX. When presented with specific flight events, participants showed slightly greater awareness, discussion, and action in the data comm condition than in the voice condition. However, this difference was not significant. In addition, pilots were less likely to seek information from ATC in the data comm condition, which could potentially reduce workload for controllers. Although this study did not yield many statistically significant results, the findings imply that there may not be a loss of situation awareness, degradation of decision making, or increase in workload when using data comm instead of voice communications, especially with a well-designed data comm interface, sufficient training, and clear procedures.

4D-Trajectory Air Traffic Management: Are There ‘Killer Apps’? – Part 2

The USA and Europe are developing plans – NextGen and SESAR – to transform the processes of Air Traffic Management (ATM). These will improve safety and efficiency, and match predicted increases in air transportation demand. They use advanced networking technology updated with information from satellite navigation and digital non-voice communication. The strategic goal, envisaged for 15–20 years hence, is a new ATM paradigm. Aircraft would fly on Four-Dimensional (4D) trajectories, incorporating altitude, position, time, and other aircraft positions and vectors. This vision would involve extremely large investments from the airline industry and ATM service providers. Thus, development priorities need to be based on sound business cases. But will these necessarily lead to the strategic vision of a 4D-trajectory system? Will the changes in practice be limited to a series of short and medium term operational improvements rather than strategic improvements? So, are there ‘Killer Apps’ for 4D-trajectory ATM? ‘Killer App(lication)s’ is jargon for innovations so valuable that they prove the core value of some larger technology. Killer Apps generate high degrees of stakeholder technical and financial cooperation. Ironically, most past ATM Killer Apps have improved safety, e.g., modern radar data processing led to collision avoidance systems. The analysis here attempts to identify and then size potential 4D-trajectory ATM Killer Apps. The evidence for Killer Apps has to pass key tests. Killer Apps obviously have to offer enormous benefits to stakeholders in the context of the potential costs. The bulk of these benefits must not be obtainable through technologically ‘cut down’ non−4D-trajectory versions. Part 1 of this paper (Brooker, 2012a) sets out the framework for investigating these questions. Part 2 examines potential Killer Apps derived from improvements in Fuel Efficiency, Capacity and Cost. An abbreviated version of this paper was first presented at the European Navigation Conference (ENC 2011), London in November 2011.

Demand and capacity management in air transportation

This paper summarizes research trends and opportunities in the area of managing air transportation demand and capacity. Capacity constraints and resulting congestion and low schedule reliability currently impose large costs on airlines and their passengers. Significant capacity increases that would solve these problems are not expected in the near- or medium-term. This paper outlines first a number of directions for effecting improvement through marginal capacity increases and better management of demand and available capacity. It then describes strategic initiatives that airlines and civil aviation authorities might undertake over time horizons of months to years as well as tactical measures that may be adopted on a daily basis in response to dynamic, “real-time” developments like poor weather or schedule disruptions. Research challenges in these areas are identified and classified in terms of specifying, allocating, and utilizing capacity. The first two categories reflect challenges faced by infrastructure providers, the last category challenges faced by airlines.

4D-Trajectory Air Traffic Management: ‘Are There ‘Killer Apps?’ – Part 1

Europe and the USA are developing plans (‘SESAR’ and ‘NextGen’) to transform the processes of Air Traffic Management (ATM). These will improve safety and efficiency, and match predicted increases in air transportation demand. Aircraft would fly on Four Dimensional-Trajectories (4D-Trajectories), incorporating altitude, position, time, and other aircraft positions and vectors. This vision would involve extremely large investments from the airline industry and ATM service providers. Thus, development priorities need to be based on sound business cases. But will these necessarily lead to the strategic vision of a 4D-Trajectory system? Will the changes in practice be limited to a series of short and medium term operational improvements rather than strategic improvements? Killer App(lication)s is jargon for innovations so valuable that they prove the core value of some larger technology. So, are there ‘Killer Apps’ for 4D-Trajectory ATM? Killer Apps generate high degrees of stakeholder technical and financial cooperation. Ironically, most past ATM Killer Apps have improved safety. The analysis here attempts to identify and then size potential 4D-Trajectory ATM Killer Apps. The evidence for Killer Apps has to pass key tests. Killer Apps obviously have to offer enormous benefits to stakeholders in the context of the potential costs. The bulk of these benefits must not be obtainable through technologically ‘cut down’ non−4D-Trajectory versions. Part 1 of this paper sets out the framework for investigating these questions; Part 2 will be published subsequently and will examine potential Killer Apps derived from improvements in Fuel Efficiency, Capacity and Cost. An abbreviated version of this paper was first presented at the European Navigation Conference (ENC 2011), London in November 2011.

Airport Noise Insulation Programs: The Spanish Case

Noise pollution around airports is one of the most important problems in environmental acoustics. The incessant development of modern societies is continuously increasing the demand for air transport, and airports have to grow to adapt their operational capacity to the new requirements. On the other hand, the economic activity related to airports is closely linked to the expansion of built-up areas around them. Consequently, two completely incompatible land uses are forced to coexist, causing airport capacity to remain limited while the inhabitants do not cease to be annoyed by aircraft noise. Although there are several international initiatives setting the focus on the reduction of noise at the source, people living in residential areas around airports need urgent solutions. Among others, the implementation of sound insulation programs is one of the most widely-adopted solutions worldwide, as it allows a reduction of sound levels in the interior of dwellings, while the operational capacity of the airport remains unaffected. The definition and application of a sound insulation program is a very complex process that needs to manage several opposing factors: health, annoyance, airport capacity, economic costs of insulation measures… In this paper we describe the case of Spanish airport insulation programs. We set the focus on a concise description of the full process, from the creation of noise maps, to the checking of installed soundproofing measures, as carried out by the Spanish administration. As a result of this process, thousands of dwellings and houses have been acoustically insulated to meet indoor noise comfort criteria in Madrid, Mallorca and Malaga airports, among others.

Strategies for managing risk in a changing aviation environment

Given the increasing volatility in the economic performance of airlines, partially reflecting the dynamics of demand for air transport and the fixed costs associated with the industry, all stakeholders need to consider appropriate strategies for better managing the risks. Many risks were identified in the literature previously, some even decades ago, however most have yet to be satisfactorily addressed. Urgency is growing. Removal of the remaining barriers to competition at all levels, congestion management, open skies policies across continents, computer-centric air traffic management systems and increased research and development into the processes and technology needed to reduce environmental externalities remain among the top challenges for the next decade.

The state of air transport markets and the airline industry after the great recession

This paper examines the state of air transport markets and the airline industry following the recession of 2008–2009. It finds that demand for air transport has proved robust in the face of repeated shocks. Following the recession, international air travel and airfreight regained pre-recession levels less than 18 months after the recession low point. Air travel remains income elastic. Globalized business supply chains continue to depend upon fast air cargo services. Airlines found adjusting their fleet to this demand shock challenging, given commitments to take delivery of new aircraft, ordered at the peak of the previous cycle. Capacity was cut but largely by underutilizing aircraft, which accentuated financial losses. Cash flows have now rebounded in many regions. But returns on capital remains well below the industry’s weighted average cost of capital, representing shareholder value destruction that persists even in the good years. There is a lack of competition in parts of the supply chain but that is found not to be the main source of inadequate airline profitability. Rather the value created by the air transport industry is being captured completely by its consumers and the wider economy.

Interaction of High-Speed Rail and Aviation

U.S. airports face significant congestion problems, particularly in major metropolitan areas with continued population and economic growth. In addition to growth in air travel demand, frequent short-haul flights on routes of less than 500 mi contribute to airport congestion. The potential for high-speed rail (HSR) to substitute for aviation on these short-haul routes is well documented; however, there is a need to explore how rail can serve in a complementary mode to relieve congestion at airports by providing short-haul services in support of longer-haul airline services. The primary objective of this research project is to examine the role of cooperation between HSR and aviation to improve the aviation system planning process. This study addresses the following key questions: (a) How have airports, airlines, and rail operators cooperated to enable airport–HSR connectivity? (b) What are the service characteristics of airport–HSR connectivity? (c) What are the unique challenges associated with airport–HSR connectivity? (d) How has the demand for air transportation evolved in the presence of airport–HSR connectivity?

Price and income elasticities of demand for air transportation: Empirical evidence from US airfreight industry

This paper examines the demand for airfreight in the US as a function of real income and the price of airfreight between 1996 and 2010. Results show that a unique long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the volume of the US airfreight and the selected variables. The estimated long-run price and income elasticities indicate that US airfreight industry is price and income elastic. It is also found that income is a more powerful determinant of the long-run behavior of US airfreight industry than airfreight price.

Air Transport Capacity and Tourism Demand Interaction: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach

The co-movement of air transport capacity and tourism demand are well-recognised. However, there exists a gap in understanding the relation between air transport capacity and demand such that the causal nature of these variables is rarely examined. The goal of this paper is to impose a cause-effect structure into the relation between tourism demand and air transport capacity. Specifically, we apply a vector error correction model (VECM) to help assess whether, and to what extent, capacity or passenger demand are first-movers that return long-run equilibrium following an event that punctuates the established equilibrium. Using data on international aviation between Australia and our test cases of China and Japan, we find that demand on Japan-Australia market correct for short-run deviations from the long-run equilibrium quicker than in the China-Australia market. Reasons for such variation in adjustment speeds are discussed and we show that the results are robust to the phenomenon of airlines pre-empting demand when setting capacity.

Airport runway scheduling

Airport runway optimization is an ongoing challenge for air traffic controllers. Since demand for air-transportation is predicted to increase, there is a need to realize additional take-off and landing slots through better runway scheduling. In this paper, we review the techniques and tools of operational research and management science that are used for scheduling aircraft landings and take-offs. The main solution techniques include dynamic programming, branch and bound, heuristics and meta-heuristics.

Addressing equity issue in multi-actor policymaking via a system-of-systems approach: Aviation emissions reduction case study

Finding equitable policy solutions is critical for developing sustainable energy use. This paper presents a system-of-systems (SoS) formalism for addressing the equity issue in multi-actor policymaking. In a SoS, the control of the overall system performance is shared among a network of actors. In contrast to a single optimal solution that aggregates objectives of actors, the solution concept of iso-performance is formulated and employed to illuminate multiple solutions and hence the ‘space’ for actors to compromise. By specifically accounting for the equity issue, the level of sacrifice each actor makes for each iso-performance solution is computed. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented about policymaking to reduce fuel life cycle aviation emissions in the United States based on the year 2020 reduction target, involving government, airlines, jet fuel refinery companies, and aircraft and engine manufacturers. A resource allocation mixed integer programming model is employed to calculate carbon emissions resulting from airlines’ deployment of aircraft fleet to meet changing air transport demand. The paper discusses three iso-performance solutions; each of them requires a different level of sacrifice from each actor. Such an insight can inform policymaking in determining the magnitude of compensation required when a particular solution is pursued.