Air Quality Prediction Research Articles

Effect of geographical parameters on PM10 pollution in European landscapes: a machine learning algorithm-based analysis

BackgroundPM10, comprising particles with diameters of 10 µm or less, has been identified as a significant environmental pollutant associated with adverse health outcomes in European cities. Understanding the temporal variation of the relationship between PM10 and geographical parameters is crucial for sustainable land use planning and air quality management in European landscapes. This study utilizes Conditional Inference Forest modeling and partial correlation to examine the impact of geographical factors on monthly average concentrations of PM10 in European suburban and urban landscapes during heating and cooling periods. The investigation focuses on two buffer zones (1000 m and 3000 m circle radiuses) surrounding 1216 European air quality monitoring stations.ResultsResults reveal importance and significant correlations between various geographical variables (soil texture, land use, transportation network, and meteorological) and PM10 quality on a continental scale. In suburban landscapes, soil texture, temperature, roads, and rail density play pivotal roles, while meteorological variables, particularly monthly average temperature and wind speed, dominate in urban landscapes. Urban sites exhibit higher R-squared values during both cooling (0.41) and heating periods (0.61) compared to suburban sites (cooling period R-squared: 0.39; heating period: R-squared: 0.51), indicating better predictive performance likely attributed to the less heterogeneous land use patterns surrounding urban PM10 monitoring sites.ConclusionThe study underscores the importance of investigating spatial and temporal dynamics of geographical factors for accurate PM10 air quality prediction models in European urban and suburban landscapes. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and environmental scientists, guiding efforts toward sustainable and healthier urban environments.

A Comprehensive Study on Winter PM2.5 Variation in the Yangtze River Delta: Unveiling Causes and Pollution Transport Pathways

To thoroughly investigate the impact of meteorological conditions and emission changes on winter PM2.5 variation in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 2015 to 2019, we leveraged advanced modeling techniques, namely, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS). The results revealed that a notable trend of high-PM2.5-concentration regions shifted from coastal areas towards to the inland regions. While emission reduction can effectively reduce the concentration of PM2.5, meteorological changes exert a significant impact on PM2.5 concentration. Unfavorable meteorological changes in 2018 and 2019 emerged as crucial factors driving PM2.5 pollution in the region (up 0~50 µg·m−3). Our findings also shed light on the potential sources and transport pathways of PM2.5 pollution in key cities within the YRD, indicating that the coastal channel of Hebei–Shandong–Jiangsu and the inland channel bordering Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui serve as major contributors. Light and moderate pollution was predominantly influenced by the medium-distance coastal channel (48~70%). Remarkably, short-distance inland (19~54%) and coastal transportation (33~53%) channels emerged as the primary causes of severe PM2.5 pollution in the YRD. To effectively combat this issue, it is imperative to bolster key control and prevention measures in these regions.

Empowering air quality prediction through "AI + big data technology" in the perspective of environmental lawA quasi-natural experiment analysis based on the "national big data comprehensive experimental zone" pilot program

The current environmental legal system primarily focuses on environmental pollution and ecological damage, yet it does not adequately address climate change as an environmental risk issue. Consequently, environmental law struggles to directly respond to air pollution and climate change. Due to the complexity of air pollution regulation, there is a need for legal frameworks that extend beyond conventional environmental pollution controls. The advent of "AI + Big Data" has provided new momentum and opportunities for predicting and improving air quality. This paper, viewed through the lens of environmental law and based on the policy of the National Big Data Comprehensive Experimental Zone, combined with the Difference-in-Differences (DID) model, outlines the impact mechanisms of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence in empowering air quality prediction and improvement. It also explores the path choices for achieving the objectives of accuracy and effectiveness in air quality prediction from the perspective of environmental law.

Air Quality Prediction and Warning Based on Machine Learning

Air Quality Prediction and Warning Based on Machine Learning

Implementation of Ensemble Learning Algorithm - Stacking Regressor on PM2.5 Prediction Model

This study aims to develop a PM2.5 concentration prediction model using ensemble learning techniques, focusing on the application of stacking regressor. The developed model is compared with several other basic models, namely LSTM, Random Forest, XGBoost, and GBM, to evaluate its performance in terms of prediction accuracy. The results show that the stacking regressor model provides more accurate prediction results than these basic models. The LSTM model has a Mean Squared Error (MSE) value of 80.42 and a coefficient of determination (R²) of -0.29, which shows unsatisfactory performance despite being able to capture temporal patterns. Random Forest gave better results with an MSE of 10.90 and R² of 0.83, thanks to its ability to handle heterogeneous data. The XGBoost and GBM models showed similar performance, with MSE of 9.01 and 8.81 respectively and R² of 0.86. However, the stacking regressor model with the RidgeCV meta-learner achieved the best results with an MSE of 8.07 and R² of 0.87, indicating that this technique successfully combines the advantages of various base models to improve prediction accuracy. In conclusion, the stacking regressor model proved effective in improving PM2.5 prediction accuracy, making it a potential tool for air quality monitoring and supporting public health policy making. This research makes an important contribution to the development of ensemble learning-based air quality prediction methods, and the results can serve as a reference for future research

Urban air quality index forecasting using multivariate convolutional neural network based customized stacked long short-term memory model

In the context of increasing urban pollution and its adverse health effects, this study focuses on enhancing the air quality prediction model by forecasting future concentrations of various Air Quality Index (AQI) levels to support the development of green smart cities. The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust multivariate time series forecasting model using a combination of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Customized Stacked-based Long Short-Term Memory (CSLSTM) networks, namely C2SLSTM. The proposed methodology involved preprocessing AQI and meteorological data, scaling the features, and employing a hybrid CNN-LSTM architecture to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in the data. Dynamic AQI pattern changes are computed using online learning. The proposed model was trained on a big dataset containing AQIs such as particulate matter (PM2.5), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), along with meteorological factors like weather count, temperature, wind, humidity, and pressure. Experimental results demonstrate that the model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.25, mean square error (MSE) of 0.083, root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.289 and a R2-Score of 0.84 on the test set. Also, compared to Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Stacked Long Short-Term Memory (SLSTM), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) models, the C2SLSTM model showcases a performance enhancement of 35 %, 50 %, 30 %, and 32 %. Notably, the CNN component effectively extracted spatial features, while the LSTM layers captured temporal patterns, leading to precise predictions. These results indicate that the proposed approach effectively captures temporal dependencies and improves forecasting performance, with R2-Score values tending towards 1 for 12-hour prediction intervals. This research demonstrates the potential of advanced SLSTM architectures in accurately predicting AQI metrics, which can aid in better environmental monitoring and management. Also, the spatiotemporal correlation analysis is done through the designed ir metric.

Building reliable AI for quantifying uncertainty in particulate matter predictions with deep learning

Predicting the concentrations of particulate matter (PM) has recently become crucial because of its significant impact on air pollution. As the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in this domain increases, ensuring the reliability of AI-driven predictions has become paramount. Although many previous studies have harnessed the power of AI for PM prediction, the inherent uncertainty in the results, which is influenced by spatial data imbalances and varying meteorological factors, poses a challenge. Addressing this uncertainty is central to building reliable AI systems. Therefore, we employed the Monte Carlo dropout (MCDO) approach, which is a technique that integrates dropout layers in neural networks during both the training and inference phases, to estimate the prediction uncertainty. Our objective was to address the challenge of prediction uncertainty in PM concentrations, with the ultimate aim of enhancing the reliability and trustworthiness of AI-driven predictions in air quality forecasting. By applying the MCDO approach to grids formed from multidimensional arrays of air quality and weather data, we obtained a 95% confidence interval for the prediction results, thereby demonstrating the trustworthiness of our model. Our evaluation revealed an R-square greater than 0.97 for PM10 and PM2.5, showcasing the robust and reliable predictive performance of the model. This study highlights not only the accuracy of this approach but also the critical role of quantifying uncertainty in building reliable AI systems. Our findings mark a significant step towards a holistic approach to predictive modeling in which reliability and uncertainty quantification are at the forefront.

An enhanced approach for predicting air pollution using quantum support vector machine

The essence of quantum machine learning is to optimize problem-solving by executing machine learning algorithms on quantum computers and exploiting potent laws such as superposition and entanglement. Support vector machine (SVM) is widely recognized as one of the most effective classification machine learning techniques currently available. Since, in conventional systems, the SVM kernel technique tends to sluggish down and even fail as datasets become increasingly complex or jumbled. To compare the execution time and accuracy of conventional SVM classification to that of quantum SVM classification, the appropriate quantum features for mapping need to be selected. As the dataset grows complex, the importance of selecting an appropriate feature map that outperforms or performs as well as the classification grows. This paper utilizes conventional SVM to select an optimal feature map and benchmark dataset for predicting air quality. Experimental evidence demonstrates that the precision of quantum SVM surpasses that of classical SVM for air quality assessment. Using quantum labs from IBM’s quantum computer cloud, conventional and quantum computing have been compared. When applied to the same dataset, the conventional SVM achieved an accuracy of 91% and 87% respectively, whereas the quantum SVM demonstrated an accuracy of 97% and 94% respectively for air quality prediction. The study introduces the use of quantum Support Vector Machines (SVM) for predicting air quality. It emphasizes the novel method of choosing the best quantum feature maps. Through the utilization of quantum-enhanced feature mapping, our objective is to exceed the constraints of classical SVM and achieve unparalleled levels of precision and effectiveness. We conduct precise experiments utilizing IBM’s state-of-the-art quantum computer cloud to compare the performance of conventional and quantum SVM algorithms on a shared dataset.

Evaluation of WRF-Chem air quality forecasts during the AEROMMA and STAQS 2023 field campaigns

ABSTRACT A real-time air quality forecasting system was developed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to provide support for flight planning activities during the NOAA Atmospheric Emissions and Reactions Observed from Megacities to Marine Areas (AEROMMA) and NASA Synergistic TEMPO Air Quality Science (STAQS) 2023 field campaigns. The forecasting system operated on two separate domains centered on Chicago, IL, and New York City, NY, and provided 72-hour predictions of atmospheric composition, aerosols, and clouds. This study evaluates the Chicago-centered forecasting system’s 1-, 2-, and 3-day ozone (O3) forecast skill for Chiwaukee Prairie, WI, a rural area downwind of Chicago that often experiences high levels of O3 pollution. Comparisons to vertical O3 profiles collected by a Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) instrument revealed that forecast skill decreases as forecast lead time increases. When compared to surface measurements, the forecasting system tended to underestimate O3 concentrations on high O3 days and overestimate on low O3 days at Chiwaukee Prairie regardless of forecast lead time. Using July 25, 2023, as a case study, analyses show that the forecasts underestimated peak O3 levels at Chiwaukee Prairie during this regionwide bad air quality day. Wind speed and direction data indicates that this underestimation can partially be attributed to lake breeze simulation errors. Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) measurements, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, and back trajectories from the NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model show that transported Canadian wildfire smoke impacted the Lake Michigan region on this day. Errors in the forecasted chemical composition and transport of the smoke plumes also contributed to underpredictions of O3 levels at Chiwaukee Prairie on July 25, 2023. The results of this work help identify improvements that can be made for future iterations of the WRF-Chem forecasting system. Implications: Air quality forecasting is an important tool that can be used to inform the public about upcoming high pollution days so that individuals may plan accordingly to limit their exposure to health-damaging air pollutants. Forecasting also helps scientists make decisions about where to make observations during air quality field campaigns. A variety of observational datasets were used to evaluate the accuracy of an air quality forecasting system that was developed for NOAA and NASA field campaigns that occurred in the summer of 2023. These evaluations inform areas of improvement for future development of this air quality forecasting system.

CALINE4 and AERMOD modelling for roadway vehicle-related air pollution: a recent review in India.

Modelling and prediction of air quality facilitates the drafting of efficient guidelines and, in turn, proper management of adversely affected areas. In order to depict the air pollutants in urban centres, this research analyses two modelling tools: AERMOD and CALINE4. Both technologies provide distinct capabilities in the modelling of air quality from vehicular and other emissions. CALINE4, a Gaussian dispersion model, specifies pollutant dispersion from mobile sources along roadways. It boasts a user-friendly interface and road-specific modelling capabilities, factoring in traffic speed and vehicle emissions. However, it simplifies intricate flow patterns and relies on primary meteorological data. On the other hand, AERMOD is a versatile model suitable for various emission sources, including both mobile and stationary sources. It excels at capturing diverse atmospheric processes but demands precise meteorological, terrain, and emission data. AERMOD is often preferred for regulatory compliance assessments, although it entails a steeper learning curve and higher computational requirements. The choice between CALINE4 and AERMOD hinges on study needs, data availability, and desired modelling precision. This review offers an overview to assist researchers in making informed model selections for assessing vehicle-related pollution, critical aspects of urban sustainability, and air quality management.

Enhanced urban PM2.5 prediction: Applying quadtree division and time-series transformer with WRF-chem

Accurately predicting air quality levels in urban landscapes is a key environmental and public health challenge due to the complex interactions between pollutant emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and meteorological conditions. Chemical transport models such as Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Weather Research and Forecasting Modeling with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) provide fundamental insights into the behavior of atmospheric pollutants but face limitations in spatial resolution and prediction accuracy. Machine learning combined with low-cost sensors can improve prediction accuracy compared to numerical models, but uneven sensor distribution may result in biased prediction results. To address these limitations, this study introduces an innovative framework that leverages a quadtree space division to refine the numerical simulations of air pollutants into higher spatial resolutions by dynamically adjusting grid sizes based on the distribution of increased sensor deployments. Using a variable-resolution grid, the study first aggregates variables into a grid and then calculates spatial dependence based on grid cells. The deep-learning-based Time Series Transformer model is then used to perform detailed temporal predictions of PM2.5 concentration across the entire grid. The spatial and temporal modeling framework is designed to use the past 48 h' aggregated data, including meteorological variables from WRF-Chem numerical simulation and PM2.5 concentrations from ground monitoring stations and sensors, to predict future 48-h’ PM2.5 concentrations and tested across entire grids within Los Angeles County from January to June 2020. The results show that the performance of variable resolution grids is better than that of fixed grids regarding four metrics: minimum resolution, overall spatiotemporal RMSE, average bias, and prediction coverage. Among them, the variable resolution grids with up to 4 sensors showed the best performance, with an overall spatiotemporal RMSE of 1.12 μg/m3, which was about 40% lower than 2-sensor and 8-sensor variable resolution grids, a significant reduction of 55% compared to a 3 km fixed grid configuration. Future work will involve additional relevant factors such as emission sources and sinks to improve prediction accuracy.

Forecasting ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations at Craiova city using a meta-hybrid deep learning model

Air quality forecasting is vital for managing and mitigating the adverse effects of air pollution on human health, crops, and the environment. This study aims to forecast daily time series of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM) concentrations using a meta-hybrid deep NARMAX (Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs) model. Two datasets were utilised: (a) data on meteorological parameters (temperature, air pressure, relative humidity) and air pollutant concentrations (particulate matter, ozone, dioxide of carbon, volatile organic compounds, formaldehyde) provided by a sensor model A3 situated in the centre of Craiova city, and (b) data on wind direction, wind speed, and sunshine duration provided by the National Meteorological Administration. The data sets covered a time interval from December 10, 2020, to January 05, 2024. Initially, a statistical analysis was conducted to assess the correlation between variables. Results revealed that ozone concentration is primarily influenced by meteorological variables such as temperature (r = 0.79), sunshine duration (r = 0.55), and relative humidity (r = −0.48), and secondarily by air pollution indicators including VOC (r = −0.34), PM concentrations (r = −0.34), and CO2 (r = −0.3). In the subsequent stage, thirteen Machine Learning (ML) models were employed in conjunction with an integral feature selection (IFS) method to identify the best combinations of predictor variables for predicting ozone and PMs. Finally, a deep NARMAX model was developed to forecast the next periods of ozone and PMs based on the optimal combinations identified earlier. Results indicated the selection of sixty best models for ozone forecasting and four best models for PMs. The R2 values surpassed 0.97 for ozone and exceeded 0.8 for PMs, demonstrating the efficacy of the forecasting approach.

Air quality forecasting and smoke messaging to protect priority populations – An Australian case study.

Air quality forecasting and smoke messaging to protect priority populations – An Australian case study.

MACHINE LEARNING METHODS APPLIED IN AIR QUALITY PREDICTION

Air quality is an important environmental component that has a significant influence on public health and well-being. Poor air quality can cause a variety of health problems, including respiratory and cardiovascular disorders. Therefore, there is a growing demand for air quality prediction tools to enable consumers and authorities to take the best decisions and to implement the necessary actions to reduce air pollution. The present paper describes an innovative application that uses machine learning techniques to supply to the users real-time air quality predictions made on past data from their unique location. The Scikit-learn Python package was used to implement five machine learning algorithms, including K-Nearest Neighbors, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Regression (SVR) and AdaBoost. To achieve robust model performance, compatibility with cross-validation approaches was evaluated. The obtained results indicate that these machine learning techniques are successful at forecasting air quality. The AdaBoost method emerged as the best accurate predictor after extensive investigation, closely followed by Gradient Boosting, SVR, Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors. Furthermore, the investigation also focused on the adapted handling of inaccurate data and providing graphical visualizations to highlight the algorithm's efficacy.

Advancing Air Quality Prediction: An Evaluation of WRF Model Configurations and Their Impact on Meteorological Parameters in Hungary

Advancing Air Quality Prediction: An Evaluation of WRF Model Configurations and Their Impact on Meteorological Parameters in Hungary

Elevating hourly PM2.5 forecasting in Istanbul, Türkiye: Leveraging ERA5 reanalysis and genetic algorithms in a comparative machine learning model analysis

Rapid urbanization and industrialization have intensified air pollution, posing severe health risks and necessitating accurate PM2.5 predictions for effective urban air quality management. This study distinguishes itself by utilizing high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data for a grid-based spatial analysis of Istanbul, Türkiye, a densely populated city with diverse pollutant sources. It assesses the predictive accuracy of advanced machine learning (ML) models—Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting (LGB), Random Forest (RF), and Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX). Notably, it introduces genetic algorithm optimization for the NARX model to enhance its performance. The models were trained on hourly PM2.5 concentrations from twenty monitoring stations across 2020–2021. Istanbul was divided into seven regions based on ERA5 grid distributions to examine PM2.5 spatial variability. Seventeen input variables from ERA5, including meteorological, land cover, and vegetation parameters, were analyzed using the Neighborhood Component Analysis (NCA) method to identify the most predictive variables. Comparative analysis showed that while all models provided valuable insights (RF > LGB > XGB > MLR), the NARX model outperformed them, particularly with the complex dataset used. The NARX model achieved a high R-value (0.89), low RMSE (5.24 μg/m³), and low MAE (2.94 μg/m³). It performed best in autumn and winter, with the highest accuracy in Region-1 (R-value 0.94) and the lowest in Region-5 (R-value 0.75). This study's success in a complex urban setting with limited monitoring underscores the robustness of the NARX model and the methodology's potential for global application in similar urban contexts. By addressing temporal and spatial variability in air quality predictions, this research sets a new benchmark and highlights the importance of advanced data analysis techniques for developing targeted pollution control strategies and public health policies.

Study of different Air Quality Forecasting Models

One of the main effects of urban growth is industrialization, which adds to the strain on resources like water and the environment. In recent years, air pollution has emerged as one of the biggest environmental challenges in emerging nations. It has negative impacts on people, plants, and animals. According to a recent study, air pollution is responsible for 3.3 million premature deaths worldwide each year. Therefore, air quality forecasting is crucial since it lessens the negative effects of air pollution on human health. In this paper, the various models used to predict air quality have. Air quality forecasting is crucial since it lessens the negative effects of air pollution on human health been discussed with its limitations. The number of factors affecting the Air Quality prediction model has also been discussed. It has been found that Machine learning techniques provide a model with the help of which we can predict the air quality when several factors affecting the air quality have been considered.

A multi-task stations cooperative air quality prediction system for sustainable development

In recent years, A series of environmental problems caused by air pollution have attracted widespread attention. Air quality forecasting has become an indispensable part of people’s daily life. However, the traditional air quality prediction (AQP) model WRF-CMAQ simulation system faces several challenges: (1) the fuzziness of pollutant formation mechanism; (2) the hardness of integrating the features of meteorological conditions; (3) the difficulty of cooperating among monitoring stations. To deal with these challenges, we propose a multi-task station cooperative air quality prediction (MTSC-AQP) system for sustainable development. The MTSC-AQP system contains three modules: air quality analysis, a WRF-LSTM module for initial pollutant prediction, and multi-station cooperative AQP. Through air quality analysis, it can calculate the air quality index (AQI) and analyze the correlation between pollutants and meteorological conditions. Then, the WRF-LSTM module integrates spatio-temporal multi-source data to forecast the initial concentration of pollutants. Finally, the system incorporates the gravity model to predict the final AQI. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world datasets show the effectiveness of forecasting the AQI by using the MTSC-AQP system.

A novel hybrid optimization model for evaluating and forecasting air quality grades.

Air pollution has a significant global impact on natural resources and public health. Accurate prediction of air pollution is crucial for effective prevention and control measures. However, due to regional variations, different cities may have varying primary pollutants, posing new challenges for accurate prediction. In this paper, we propose a novel method called FP-RF, which integrates clustering algorithms to categorize multiple cities according to their air quality index values. Subsequently, we apply functional principal component analysis to extract the primary components of air pollution within each cluster. Furthermore, an enhanced random forest algorithm is utilized to predict air quality grades for each city. We conduct experimental evaluations using authentic historical data from Anhui Province spanning from 2018 to 2023. The results unequivocally establish the effectiveness of our model, with an average accuracy rate of 98.6% in forecasting six pollution grades and 96.04% accuracy in predicting 16 prefecture-level cities, surpassing performance compared to other baseline models.

Implementing heuristic-based multiscale depth-wise separable adaptive temporal convolutional network for ambient air quality prediction using real time data

In many emerging nations, rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to heightened levels of air pollution. This sudden rise in air pollution, which affects global sustainability and human health, has become a significant concern for citizens and governments. While most current methods for predicting air quality rely on shallow models and often yield unsatisfactory results, our study explores a deep architectural model for forecasting air quality. We employ a sophisticated deep learning structure to develop an advanced system for ambient air quality prediction. We utilize three publicly available databases and real-world data to obtain accurate air quality measurements. These four datasets undergo a data cleaning to yield a consolidated, cleaned dataset. Subsequently, the Fused Eurasian Oystercatcher-Pathfinder Algorithm (FEO-PFA)—a dual optimization method combining the Eurasian Oystercatcher Optimizer (EOO) and Pathfinder Algorithm (PFA)—is applied. This method aids in selecting weighted features, optimizing weights, and choosing the most relevant attributes for optimal results. These optimal features are then incorporated into the Multiscale Depth-wise Separable Adaptive Temporal Convolutional Network (MDS-ATCN) for the ambient Air Quality Prediction (AQP) process. The variables within MDS-ATCN are further refined using the proposed FEO-PFA to enhance predictive accuracy. An empirical analysis is performed to compare the efficacy of our proposed model with traditional methods, underscoring the superior effectiveness of our approach. The average cost function is reduced to 5.5%, the MAE to 28%, and the RMSE to 14% by the suggested method, according to the performance research conducted with regard to all datasets.