Ice formation in the Baltic is mainly dependent upon the meteorological elements. The problem of ice forecasting is in fact a problem of translating the weather prognosis into an ice forecast by using the relations between weather and ice. At the Swedish Meteorological and ttydrological Tnstitute in Stockholm much interest is devoted to the problem of ice forecasting, and a special section collaborating with the Central Office of the Government Icebreaking Service has been organized there. Being in charge of that section the author has been commissioned to study the relations between weather and ice. The necessary condition for ice formation is an upward net heat transport from the sea surface when the surface water temperature is at the freezing-point. This heat transport may be caused by radiation, precipitation, evaporation and conduction. But the formation of ice may at the same time be prevented by wind, by waves and currents in the sea and by the upwelling of deep water. Ice is formed when the ice producing elements dominate. On the other hand, even when these ice-producing elements are active ice may not be formed if they are suppressed by elements preventing ice formation. If we want to study this {struggle between the ice-producing and ice-preventing elements, we must be able to decide whether the ice-producing elements are active although ice is not formed. Tn this paper such a criterion will be discussed concerning that part of the heat transport which is caused by conduction. The salinity in the Baltic is low, and the freezing point is approximately o° C Furthermore, the Baltic is an almost closed sea system and its water temperature is mainly a function of the air which has been in contact with the sea surface. Therefore, instead of studying the sea temperature itself} we may examine the past air temperature. Investigations of this kind have already been made by Ostman (I950), Nusser (I950) and Palosuo (I95I). ostman adds the air temperatures only when they are below o° C, beginning with the first frost in the autumn or early winter. The result is a ¢frost-sum, which he then correlates with the ice formation in the adjacent sea. In the harbours of the northern part of the Gulf of Bothnia the ice in 62 °X0 of the cases was formed within a week before or after the occurrence of the frost-sum normally observed at ice formation. In the harbours of the southern part of the Gulf the corresponding figure is 22 °X0 and further south in the Baltic 28 °X0. For the passages along the coasts of the respective seas the figures are 26, I5 and 20 °X0 and in the open seas generally about I5 °X0. Ostman
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