Agricultural Intensification Research Articles

Influence of Organic Fertilizers on the Reactivity of the Low-Grade Phosphate Rock in a Sandy Soil: Incubation and Release Experiments

ABSTRACT Foods’ increasing demand, agricultural intensification, and affordable fertilizer drive low-grade phosphate rock (LGPR) use in farming. Incubation and release-batch experiments were conducted to investigate the phosphorus (P) availability as the LGPR was added to a coarse-textured alkaline soil. Incubation of the treated soil for 12 weeks was applied. The influence of co-application of LGPR with compost, poultry manure (PM), humic acid (HA), or farmyard manure (FYM) on P availability was evaluated. The changes in available P, soil pH, and exchangeable calcium (Ca) were quantified during the incubation. The released P was measured overtime at the end of the 12 weeks of incubation. Statistical analyses were conducted to assess the significant differences between treatments and identify the association of the available P with soil pH and the exchangeable Ca. Results revealed that the LGPR addition of 4.76 ton ha−1 increased the available P from 5.74 mg kg−1 to 11.57 mg kg−1 in the soil. However, the co-application of compost resulted in the highest available soil P (28.84 mg kg−1). Accurate predictions of the available P based on soil pH or exchangeable Ca were realized. The results demonstrate the beneficial impact of using LGPR in alkaline sandy soil.

Phosphorus transport in a hotter and drier climate: in-channel release of legacy phosphorus during summer low-flow conditions

Abstract. “Legacy phosphorus” is the historical accumulation of phosphorus (P) in soils and sediments due to past human inputs. River networks represent a potential sink and/or source of legacy P, with many in-channel processes potentially governing the storage and mobilization of P over time. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential contribution of the in-channel release of legacy P to bioavailable P transport in streams during summer low-flow conditions across a land use gradient in Minnesota, USA. We addressed this objective through the synthesis of (1) water quality and streamflow (Q) data collected for 143 gauged watersheds across the state of Minnesota between 2007–2021 (22 750 total samples); (2) water quality data from 33 additional ditch, stream, and river sites in Minnesota sampled under low-flow conditions in the summer of 2014; and (3) water quality data collected from tile drainage outlets for 10 monitored farm fields between 2011–2021. We used geospatial data and a random forest modeling approach to identify possible drivers of bioavailable P concentrations during summer low flows for gauged watersheds. During low flows in late summer, between one-third to one-half of the gauged watersheds we studied exhibited soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations that were above previously identified thresholds for eutrophication of 0.02–0.04 mg L−1. For many of these watersheds, stream SRP concentrations in late summer were above those observed in tile drainage outlets. Elevated SRP concentrations during late-summer low flows weakened concentration–discharge relationships that would otherwise appear to indicate more strongly mobilizing SRP–Q responses across other seasons and flow conditions. While wastewater discharge likely contributed to elevated P concentrations for watersheds with high densities of treatment plants, many watersheds did not have substantial wastewater impacts. The most important variables for predicting bioavailable P concentrations during late-summer low-flow conditions in a random forest model were land use in riparian areas (particularly crop cover); soil characteristics including soil erodibility, soil permeability, and soil clay content; agricultural intensity (reflected via higher pesticide use, higher phosphorus uptake by crops, and higher fertilizer application rates); watershed precipitation; and stream temperature. These findings suggest that, for stream and river sites heavily impacted by past and current P inputs associated with agriculture and urbanization, biogeochemical processes mediated by climate and geology can result in the release of legacy P from in-channel stores during late-summer low-flow conditions. As summers become hotter and, at times, drier – which are predicted changes in this region – conditions for the release of legacy P stored in stream and river channels will likely become more prolonged and/or more acute, increasing eutrophication risk.

Gazing at long-term linkages between agricultural land use and population growth in India: an inverted “U-shape” relationship

Abstract This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts × 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted “U-shape” relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961–2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior and green technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability.

Pandemic-Proofing: Intercepting Zoonotic Spillover Events

Zoonotic spillover events pose a significant and growing threat to global health. By focusing on preventing these cross-species transmissions, we can significantly mitigate pandemic risks. This review aims to analyze the mechanisms of zoonotic spillover events, identify key risk factors, and propose evidence-based prevention strategies to reduce future pandemic threats. Through a comprehensive literature review and analysis of major databases including PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from 1960–2024, we examined documented spillover events, their outcomes, and intervention strategies. This article emphasizes that targeting the root cause—the spillover event itself—is key to averting future pandemics. By analyzing historical and contemporary outbreaks, we extract crucial insights into the dynamics of zoonotic transmission. Factors underlying these events include increased human–animal contact due to habitat encroachment, agricultural intensification, and wildlife trade. Climate change, global travel, and inadequate healthcare infrastructure exacerbate risks. The diversity of potential viral reservoirs and rapid viral evolution present major challenges for prediction and prevention. Solutions include enhancing surveillance of wildlife populations, improving biosecurity measures, investing in diagnostic capabilities, and promoting sustainable wildlife management. A “One Health” approach integrating human, animal, and environmental health is crucial. Predictive modelling, international cooperation, and public education are key strategies. Developing pre-exposure prophylactics and post-exposure treatments is essential for mitigating outbreaks. While obstacles remain, advances in genomics and ecological modelling offer hope. A proactive, comprehensive approach addressing the root causes of spillover events is vital for safeguarding global health against future pandemics.

Mapping and assessing the future provision of lake ecosystem services in Lithuania

Lakes supply multiple ecosystem services (ES), key to supporting socio-ecologic systems and human well-being. In the context of future land use and climate changes, it is imperative to anticipate potential impacts on lake ES supply. Hence, studies that deal with future lake ES, such as mapping, are lacking. In this work, we mapped and assessed the future supply of three ES: (1) maintenance of nursery conditions (nursery ES), (2) maintenance of chemical conditions of freshwaters (nutrient regulation ES), and (3) direct and indirect cultural outputs (recreation ES) in Lithuania. Four future scenarios were utilised, integrating land use and climate changes: A0 - business as usual; A1-urbanisation; A2: land abandonment and afforestation; and A3 - agricultural intensification. The projected year was 2050, following the intermediate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5). The future scenarios were simulated using the open-source software Dinamica EGO based on a 6-step modelling framework. Statistical differences among the scenarios and ES were analysed by applying a Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA test. Spatial analysis was done by performing a Moran's I and Getis-Ord (Gi∗) hotspot analysis. The results showed significant differences in nursery and nutrient regulation ES. The highest supply in nursery ES was observed for the A0 scenario. For nutrient regulation ES, the lowest ES supply was identified for the A1 scenario and for recreation ES, the highest was found in the A2 scenario. The eastern and northeastern regions of Lithuania showed a high ES supply. Hot spots were only identified in the eastern region. These regions are associated with a high area covered by forests and protected areas. The central region shows a low ES supply, identified as a cold spot where the agricultural landscape dominates. The results of the PCA analysis revealed an association between nursery and recreation ES. Nutrient regulation was not associated with the other two ES. Mapping and assessing the impact of future scenarios is vital to anticipating the potential dynamics of lake ES, especially in the context of climate change. This information is essential in the context of environmental management, helping decision-makers to ensure a sustainable ES supply and contributing to human wellbeing.

Cultural landscape transformations in the "Prosecco hills of Conegliano and Valdobbiadene" UNESCO World Heritage Site in the context of terrain morphology

The "Prosecco Hills of Conegliano and Valdobbiadene" has been inscribed in the UNESCO World Heritage List since 2019 under the category “cultural landscapes”. The study analysed land use and landscape changes in the last six decades through spatial analyses and landscape metrics, identifying main changes and comparing similarities and differences between the Core and the Buffer Zone. The main aims were to identify the main drivers that contributed to the preservation of the traditional cultural landscape and to provide data and indications for landscape planning and conservation, with particular attention to the opportunities/threats due to the expected increase of tourism resulting from the recent UNESCO recognition. The study was conducted in the framework of the UNESCO site Management Plan.Results demonstrated that the Core Zone traditional landscape has a higher level of integrity compared to the Buffer Zone, due to the different terrain morphology that represents the main driver. The rough morphology of the Core Zone contributed to the preservation of traditional vineyards interspersed with small woods, linear tree formations and forest patches, as it was not possible to introduce mechanisation in viticulture due to steep slopes that oblige farmers to cultivate vines on ciglioni (earth terraces). Core Zone's main change was due to forestation (21% of the surface) on steeper slopes and higher altitudes, caused by the abandonment of pastures that occurred in the last decades. The main transformations in the Buffer Zone were agricultural intensification (29% of the surface) due to the replacement of traditional mixed crops, meadows, and arable land with modern and mechanised vineyards, and urban sprawl (average rate of 10 ha/year). The study highlighted that despite land use changes the Buffer Zone still contributes to the conservation of the overall UNESCO site landscape quality. Buffer Zone can also have a potential key-role in mitigating the increasing tourist flows, but additional urban sprawl or the spread of other modern vineyards should be avoided. The main long-term objective should be the preservation of the cultural landscape and the peaceful coexistence of farmers, local population and tourists, with mutual benefits, by applying a participatory approach.

Agricultural input supply system and contract on nudging the adoption intensity of climate-smart agriculture in Ghana

Agricultural input supply system and contract on nudging the adoption intensity of climate-smart agriculture in Ghana

Zoonotic transmission of asymptomatic carriage Staphylococcus aureus on dairy farms in Canterbury, New Zealand.

Zoonotic pathogen transmission is of growing concern globally, with agricultural intensification facilitating interactions between humans, livestock and wild animals. Staphylococcus aureus is a major human pathogen, but it also causes mastitis in dairy cattle, leading to an economic burden on the dairy industry. Here, we investigated transmission within and between cattle and humans, including potential zoonotic transmission of S. aureus isolated from cattle and humans from three dairy farms and an associated primary school in New Zealand. Nasal swabs (N=170) were taken from healthy humans. Inguinal and combined nasal/inguinal swabs were taken from healthy cattle (N=1163). Whole-genome sequencing was performed for 96 S. aureus isolates (44 human and 52 cattle). Multilocus sequence typing and assessments of antimicrobial resistance and virulence were carried out. Potential within- and across-species transmission events were determined based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Thirteen potential transmission clusters were detected, with 12 clusters restricted to within-species and one potential zoonotic transmission cluster (ST5). Potential transmission among cattle was mostly limited to single age groups, likely because different age groups are managed separately on farms. While the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was low among both bovine and human isolates, the discovery of an extended-spectrum beta-lactamase gene (bla TEM-116) in a bovine isolate was concerning. This study provides evidence around frequency and patterns of potential transmission of S. aureus on dairy farms and highlights the AMR and virulence profile of asymptomatic carriage S. aureus isolates.

Biodiverse Management of Perennial Flower Margins in Farmland: Meandering Mowing by ‘Three-Strip Management’ to Boost Pollinators and Beneficial Insects

Agricultural intensification has led to significant declines in beneficial insect populations, such as pollinators and natural enemies, along with their ecosystem services. The installation of perennial flower margins in farmland is a popular agri-environmental scheme to mitigate these losses, promoting biodiversity, pollination, and pest control. However, outcomes can vary widely, and recent insights into flower margins in an agricultural context suggest that management could be an important contributor to this variation. This study evaluated two mowing management regimes: the new “three-strip management” method with uneven, curved mowing lines and regular phased mowing as a control method. During the third year of application, we evaluated the effects on the alpha diversity indices of pollinators and natural enemies, as well as plant–pollinator visitation networks. Curved three-strip management significantly increased the abundance of all pollinator groups (+44%) and natural enemies (+50%), and the taxonomic richness and diversity of pollinators, especially for rarer solitary bees. Floral diversity was also higher, with more unique plants blooming in early spring and late summer, generating more unique plant–pollinator interactions (+54%) and a positive impact on multiple network-level properties. Our findings provide new evidence that nature-based management methods can be a win–win solution, creating high-quality habitats that enhance the insect diversity of various groups, support associated ecosystem services, and help restore overall farmland biodiversity.

Effects of farming intensification on avian species richness and abundance within Jos metropolis, Nigeria

With an emphasis on pesticide use and landscape features, this study examines how agricultural development affects the diversity and abundance of farmland bird species. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the effects of many factors on bird populations, including cropping patterns, pesticide frequency, and landscape elements including trees, water bodies, hedgerows, and grass cover. The issue being addressed is the decline in biodiversity brought on by an increase in farming practices and a reliance on pesticides that upset ecosystems. The study uses interviews in addition to line transect surveys over five farmlands to collect data on pesticide use and landscape features. The methodology comprised 200-meter transects separated into 100-meter parts for morning and evening bird surveys. Statistical approaches, including species richness and abundance comparison across farmlands with different pesticide use levels and cropping techniques, were used to analyse the data. The results showed that farmlands without pesticides had better biodiversity, while areas with frequent pesticide usage had significantly lower species richness and abundance. Bird diversity was only slightly increased by mixed cropping systems, grass cover, trees, hedgerows, and adjacent water bodies. The study comes to the conclusion that fostering diverse landscapes and lowering pesticide use can help lessen the loss of biodiversity. To improve agricultural bird conservation, it suggests focused interventions, education initiatives, and policies that support biodiversity.

Scaling rainwater harvesting for irrigation in Kenya: potential sustainability risks and the need for adaptive governance

Abstract Rainwater harvesting for irrigation (RWHI) systems offer many benefits to smallholder farmers in Kenya, including the possibility of agricultural intensification and improved resilience to climate change in more arid areas. However, the scaling of RWHI systems could inadvertently pose risks to environmental, social, and economic sustainability. Governance institutions in Kenya tasked with managing RWHI adoption processes are often unaware of such risks and ill-equipped to manage them when they emerge. To address this gap, this article first presents key insights from the literature on innovation scaling and adaptive governance on how undesirable effects of scaling can be mitigated. Then, based on the results of a global literature review and a case study in Kenya, it outlines potential environmental, social, and economic risks of scaling RWHI that may manifest in the Kenyan context. Environmentally, the biggest risk is that widespread adoption of RWHI, while increasing water availability at the household level, will alter hydrological flows and impact ecosystem functioning. Socially, major risks of scaling RWHI include increased inequities in water access and rights, as those with the resources to adopt RWHI are able to store and use more water than others. Finally, economic risks may emerge when farmers who have adopted RWHI to grow cash crops experience heightened vulnerability to market fluctuations. The article ends with a discussion on governance approaches that could be applied to ensure responsible RWHI scaling in Kenya. Key recommendations include creating institutions that embed adaptive governance mechanisms, democratizing the development of scaling strategies to ensure their collective ownership, and enhancing monitoring and data collection capacities for effective response. These measures aim to balance short-, medium-, and long-term objectives across various scales and user groups to maximize sustainability outcomes during RWHI scaling processes.

Soil mesofauna diversity in agricultural systems of Slovenia using the QBS index and its modifications

Soil mesofauna plays a key role in maintaining soil health by supporting the decomposition of organic matter, nutrient cycling and the maintenance of soil structure. In this study of Slovenian agricultural ecosystems, we used four modifications of the QBS index, a soil biological quality index based on soil mesofauna. We compared diversity in arable fields under different tillage intensities, a strawberry field and an orchard, managed with either organic or integrated pest management methods (IPM). The results show significant differences in the mesofaunal communities in the soil. Minimum tillage promoted higher biodiversity, especially of Collembola, compared to conventional tillage. In fruit production systems, the ratio of Collembola to Acarina differed from that of arable fields, skewing in favour of Collembola, possibly related to the use of copper-containing pesticides in organic orchards and systemic herbicides in IPM systems. The QBS index values for soil health varied considerably between systems. Only QBS modifications considering the abundances of organisms (QBS-ab and QBS-a) were able to distinguish between different system-management groups. This study provides insights into the limitations of the originally proposed QBS-ar index to discern the effects of farming intensity on the soil mesofaunal community. Results suggest that minimum tillage and organic management practices can promote healthier soil ecosystems, emphasizing the importance of sustainable soil management for the promotion of soil biodiversity. Future research should aim to incorporate a broader range of agricultural practices and assign fauna to a higher taxonomic rank to further explain the effects on soil mesofauna diversity.

The Maya Landscape of El Infiernito, Chiapas, Mexico: Comparison of Occupied and Unoccupied Airborne LiDAR Mapping Systems

Landscape-oriented approaches in archaeology have moved beyond site-based research to interpret how people have engaged with, modified, and constructed the environment and how the legacies of these activities continue to influence land use. In the Maya Lowlands, landscape archaeology is related to the analysis of settlement patterns, households, agricultural intensification, and water management. The increasing availability of LiDAR data has revolutionized the mapping of archaeological landscapes under vegetation, especially in tropical environments like the Maya Lowlands, but researchers still emphasize site-oriented settlement densities and infrastructure. Furthermore, the accessibility of drone-based LiDAR platforms has the potential to collect data across several seasons or years to facilitate change detection. In this paper, we compare three LiDAR datasets collected from 2018 to 2023, using both occupied and unoccupied airborne systems. The landscape surrounding the archaeological site of El Infiernito, Chiapas, Mexico near the Classic period (AD 250–800) dynastic capital of Piedras Negras, Guatemala was selected to compare these LiDAR datasets in the context of prior, extensive ground-based fieldwork. These data were used to interpret the built environment, land use, hydrology, landscapes of movement, and other infrastructure constructed and modified by several communities beginning in the Late Preclassic period (400 BC–AD 250) to the present. When used alongside systematic survey and ground verification, the combination of several LiDAR platforms to collect data across different seasons at El Infiernito enhanced the understanding of the spatial distribution of archaeological sites and features across the karst landscape.

Increasing stability of northern Austrian Lepidoptera populations over three decades

Abstract Agricultural intensification has led to landscape homogenisation across major parts of Europe and to reduced diversity in flora and fauna. In Central Europe, the species composition of major insect groups is increasingly dominated by a few ecologically generalist and mobile species. So far, however, the degree of stability of population sizes in today's anthropogenic landscapes in comparison to the pre‐Anthropocene has hardly been analysed. Here, we studied large museum records of Lepidoptera from northern Austria spanning the years 1990–2022 to infer trends in the stability of population sizes. On average, population dynamics decreased and stability increased significantly over time. This trend was most pronounced in lowland regions, where agricultural intensification transformed the former heterogeneous landscapes into intensively managed grasslands and fields. Community structures are now dominated by ubiquitous species. Habitat specialist species existing in isolated patches particularly decreased over time. A metapopulation structure appeared to have a stabilising effect on population dynamics. We conclude that reduced diversity and altered community composition might not only stem from selective population decline but also from altered patterns of population stochasticity. Higher population stability was associated with faunal homogenisation. Precise butterfly sensitivity analyses require long‐term data on average population sizes and on community composition.

Driving transformation: the role of institutions in shaping ecological farming adoption in Kiambu County, Kenya

ABSTRACT Institutions promote ecological farming through various interventions. However, there is a dearth of thorough empirical research on which institutional interventions influence the adoption intensity of ecological farming. Therefore, this paper aims to fill this gap by determining the role of institutional intervention in the adoption intensity of ecological farming in Kiambu County. We used cross-sectional survey data obtained from a multi-staged sample of 320 households. The data were collected using semi-structured questionnaires and analysed using a generalised Poisson regression model. Based on inferential statistics at a significant level of p ≤ 0.05, the results revealed that access to eco-friendly markets, training, information sources, and extension contacts increased the likelihood of a farmer adopting ecological farming practices at a higher intensity by 50.1 per cent, 50.9 per cent, 4.3 per cent, and 38.7 per cent, respectively. This study recommends policy interventions to promote multi-stakeholder partnerships to develop eco-friendly markets and enhance knowledge dissemination through extension services and training forums for farmers.

Urban expansion and livelihood dynamics in peri‐urban Tamale, Ghana

AbstractAt the heart of this paper are concerns for food security and sustainability—two challenges of wide relevance for geographers. Our work focuses specifically on the Guinea northern savanna ecological zone of Ghana, where poverty is grim and livelihood opportunities are limited and the intersection of urban expansion and livelihood dynamics is not well understood. This study analysed trends in and effects of urban expansion on farmers’ livelihoods in four peri‐urban communities around Tamale in the Republic of Ghana. The study employed a mixed methods design comprising quantitative and qualitative methods. It used geospatial techniques, secondary data, and a qualitative study involving 56 heads of households and seven key informants. Results indicate that while the surface area of farmlands reduced by 77% from 1996 to 2023, urban or built‐up areas increased by 93% in the same period. Findings show that while urban expansion reduced the sizes of farmlands, households’ agricultural output, and income, it created nonfarm livelihood opportunities for some households. To minimise the effects of urbanisation‐induced arable land shrinkage, affected households adopted three strategies: agricultural intensification, agricultural diversification, and adoption of nonfarm livelihood activities. Key policy initiatives by the Tamale Metropolitan Assembly are needed to protect agricultural lands to stem declining agricultural production and to ensure livelihood sustainability in the metropolis.

Prevention and management of plant protection product transfers within the environment: A review.

The intensification of agriculture has promoted the simplification and specialization of agroecosystems, resulting in negative impacts such as decreasing landscape heterogeneity and increasing use of plant protection products (PPP), with the acceleration of PPP transfers to environmental compartments and loss in biodiversity. In this context, the present work reviews the various levers for action promoting the prevention and management of these transfers in the environment and the available modelling tools. Two main categories of levers were identified: (1) better control of the application, including the reduction of doses and of PPP dispersion during application thanks to appropriate equipment and settings, PPP formulations and consideration of meteorological conditions; (2) reduction of post-application transfers at plot scales (soil cover, low tillage, organic matter management, remediation etc. and at landscape scales using either dry (grassed strips, forest, hedgerows and ditches) or wet (ponds, mangroves and stormwater basins) buffer zones. The management of PPP residues leftover in the spray tanks (biobeds) also represents a lever for limiting point-source PPP pollution. Numerous models have been developed to simulate the transfers of PPPs at plot scales. They are scarce for landscape scales. A few are used for regulatory risk assessment. These models could still be improved, for example, if current agricultural practices (e.g. agro-ecological practices and biopesticides), and their effect on PPP transfers were better described. If operated alone, none of the levers guarantee a zero risk of PPP transfer. However, if levers are applied in a combined manner, PPP transfers could be more easily limited (agricultural practices, landscape organization etc.).

Late Archaic large-scale fisheries in the wetlands of the pre-Columbian Maya Lowlands.

Multiproxy data collected from the largest inland wetland in Belize, Central America, demonstrate the presence of large-scale pre-Columbian fish-trapping facilities built by Late Archaic hunter-gatherer-fishers, which continued to be used by their Maya descendants during Formative times (approximately 2000 BCE to 200 CE). This is the earliest large-scale Archaic fish-trapping facility recorded in ancient Mesoamerica. We suggest that such landscape-scale intensification may have been a response to long-term climate disturbance recorded between 2200 and 1900 BCE. Agricultural intensification after 2000 BCE has been credited for supporting the rise of pre-Columbian civilizations in Formative Mesoamerica, but we suggest that some groups relied more heavily on the mass harvesting of aquatic resources. We argue that such early intensification of aquatic food production offered a high value subsistence strategy that was instrumental in the emergence of Formative period sedentarism and the development of complexity among pre-Columbian civilizations like the Maya.

The impact of digital rural construction on agricultural carbon emission intensity

The impact of digital rural construction on agricultural carbon emission intensity

Simulation and attribution analysis of agricultural nitrogen non-point source pollution in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain based on the InVEST model

The study of agricultural non-point source pollution (ANNSP) patterns and driving mechanisms is crucial for regional ecological management. This paper evaluates the sources of ANNSP in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 using the source list method. Additionally, nitrogen source data for the InVEST model were supplemented and adjusted, and the nitrogen output load and proportions derived in farmland from both methods were compared. The temporal and spatial distribution of nitrogen emission intensity was analyzed based on InVEST model outputs. Key source areas were identified through hotspot analysis, and spatial driving factors were examined using geodetector. Key findings reveal: 1) While the source list method estimated a higher nitrogen output load, both methods concurred on the proportion of agricultural nitrogen. The main sources of nitrogen input were overuse of fertilizer and livestock breeding. 2) Over this period, nitrogen emission intensity declined, exhibiting a distinct spatial pattern of “northwest low, southeast high.” 3) The extent of critical source areas underwent a dynamic shift, initially contracting before expanding. 4) Rainfall emerged as the primary driver of spatial variability in agricultural TN emission intensity. These insights offer critical reference points for achieving efficient ANNSP management in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.