Agricultural Suitability Research Articles

Climate change-induced reduction in agricultural land suitability of West-Africa's inland valley landscapes

CONTEXTAlthough rice production has increased significantly in the last decade in West Africa, the region is far from being rice self-sufficient. Inland valleys (IVs) with their relatively higher water content and soil fertility compared to the surrounding uplands are the main rice-growing agroecosystem. They are being promoted by governments and development agencies as future food baskets of the region. However, West Africa's crop production is estimated to be negatively affected by climate change due to the strong dependence of its agriculture on rainfall. OBJECTIVEThe main objective of the study is to apply a set of machine learning models to quantify the extent of climate change impact on land suitability for rice using the presence of rice-only data in IVs along with bioclimatic indicators. METHODSWe used a spatially explicit modeling approach based on correlative Ecological Niche Modeling. We deployed 4 algorithms (Boosted Regression Trees, Generalized Linear Model, Maximum Entropy, and Random Forest) for 4-time periods (the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2080s) of the 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8) from an ensemble set of 32 spatially downscaled and bias-corrected Global Circulation Models climate data. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSThe overall trend showed a decrease in suitable areas compared to the baseline as a function of changes in temperature and precipitation by the order of 22–33% area loss under the lowest reduction scenarios and more than 50% in extreme cases. Isothermality or how large the day to night temperatures oscillate relative to the annual oscillations has a large impact on area losses while precipitation increase accounts for most of the areas with no change in suitability. Strong adaptation measures along with technological advancement and adoption will be needed to cope with the adverse effects of climate change on inland valley rice areas in the sub-region. SIGNIFICANCEThe demand for rice in West Africa is huge. For the rice self-sufficiency agenda of the region, “where” and “how much” land resources are available is key and requires long-term, informed planning. Farmers can only adapt when they switch to improved breeds, providing that they are suited for the new conditions. Our results stress the need for land use planning that considers potential climate change impacts to define the best areas and growing systems to produce rice under multiple future climate change uncertainties.

The Pattern and Local Push Factors of Rural Depopulation in Less-Developed Areas: A Case Study in the Mountains of North Hebei Province, China.

Rural depopulation is the most significant geographical phenomenon in rural areas during the process of urbanization. Although many studies have investigated the driving force of rural depopulation based on rural-urban migration at the macro level, the local factors, and their impact on rural depopulation from the rural areas have been not fully revealed. This paper selected the northern mountains of China’s Hebei province as a study area to explore the pattern and local push factors of rural depopulation at the rural-township levels based on GeoDetector. The main findings are summarized as follows. (1) Rural depopulation varies substantially, demonstrates spatial correlation, and is distributed in clusters. From a dynamic perspective, compare that in years 2000–2010, the population growth areas during 2010–2017 have been significantly expanded, while the sharp depopulation areas and severe depopulation areas experienced shrinkage in our study area. (2) The pattern of rural depopulation is in accordance with terrain. Rural depopulation tends to be stronger in plateaus and mountains, while relatively milder in intermontane basins, hills, and piedmont plains. (3) The agricultural suitability of natural environmental and rural economic opportunities together with climate changes were the most important driving forces of rural depopulation at local levels. Location, sparse population, and inadequate public services also contributed to rural depopulation. However, the dominant driving factors are different in the different periods. Rural depopulation was mainly driven by arable land per capita and natural environmental variables in the years 2000–2010, while the population density, location, and off-farm economic opportunities played a decisive role in the years 2010–2017. (4) Rural depopulation is a complex, multi-dimensional process driven by a combination of multiple factors including different environmental factors, economic opportunities, and location. This paper reveals the push factors of rural depopulation in underdeveloped mountainous areas by a quantitative empirical approach, inspiring increased attention to the impacts of local factors and spatial correlations on rural depopulation, and has many implications for the policy design of China’s rural revitalization.

Agricultural Use Report Card development: A case study in the Fitzroy Basin, Queensland

Agriculture is heavily reliant on readily available water of a suitable quality for stock consumption and irrigation of crops. While technical methods for assessing water quality are available, methods to summarise the results and communicate it to a broader audience are lacking. Here the development of an Agricultural Use Report Card in the Fitzroy Basin, Queensland, is outlined. This study summarises findings and includes a methodology developed and deployed to deliver these stock and crop water suitability assessments. We also discuss the index developed to underpin agricultural use, report card publication and communication, along with the online assessment architecture used to facilitate multi-tier result interrogation by end users. This study found surface waters of the Fitzroy were generally of good or very good quality for agricultural uses. Occasional exceedances of agricultural suitability thresholds for several indicators were identified, and we discuss the method used for exceedance identification and a novel style of exceedance reporting that provides a greater degree of transparency than traditional aquatic ecosystem report card approaches.

Shifting cultivation geographies in the Central and Eastern US

Climate change is projected to transform agricultural systems around the globe. Though climate strongly influences where and how farmers cultivate, millennia of agricultural innovation have expanded cultivation geographies far beyond what sun, soil, and water alone can support. Evaluating how climate interacts with human activity to shape cultivation possibilities for farmers is vital to understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture. I assess how climate interacts with agricultural activity to shape the cultivation geographies of six major crops: corn, soy, wheat, cotton, hay and alfalfa. For each crop, I model biophysical suitability, or the probability of a crop’s occurrence given only biophysical conditions, and agricultural suitability, or the probability of a crops occurrence given biophysical conditions as well as agricultural inputs, farm resources, and farm(er) characteristics. Though biophysical conditions strongly shape cultivation geographies, agricultural activity—particularly the use of crop insurance and agricultural inputs—amplifies and expands the cultivation geographies of these major crops, often into regions biophysically unsuited to their cultivation. I project biophysically driven shifts in cultivation geographies to 2100 under low, moderate, and high emissions scenarios and find that these geographies will shift strongly north, with the Corn Belt becoming unsuitable to the cultivation of corn by 2100. These results indicate that significant agricultural adaptation will be necessary and inevitable in the Central and Eastern U.S.

النمذجة المكانية لأقاليم الملائمة الزراعية في قضاء هيت

The research aims to the modeling of agricultural suitability regions in Heet district, so the problem of the research was to determine the general reality by modeling the spatial analysis of the regions of agricultural suitability in Heet district. There are three types of agricultural viability, including: first type of high quality, which has an area of 3380 Acres, the second region is average validity, which has an area of 2920 Acres, and the third region is low validity, which has an area of (280) Acres. The study consists of three sections, the first section includes the natural factors in the study area, including topography and climate, combining its elements, water resources, types of soil and natural vegetation. As for the second section, it includes the human factors in the study area, represented by the population, its numbers and the labor force, with reference to agricultural holdings, transportation methods, irrigation methods, agricultural mechanization, and the number of pumps and wells in the study area. While the third section deals with the most important areas suitable for agriculture in Hit district, leading to the realization of cartographic models showing the most important regions suitable for agriculture, in addition to the most important conclusions and recommendations within this study.

New land-use change scenarios for Brazil: Refining global SSPs with a regional spatially-explicit allocation model.

The future of land use and cover change in Brazil, particularly due to deforestation and forest restoration processes, is critical for the future of global climate and biodiversity, given the richness of its five biomes. These changes in Brazil depend on the interlink between global factors due to its role as one of the main exporters of commodities globally and the national to local institutional, socioeconomic, and biophysical contexts. Aiming to develop scenarios that consider the balance between global (e.g., GDP growth, population growth, per capita consumption of agricultural products, international trade policies, and climatic conditions) and local factors (e.g., land use, agrarian structure, agricultural suitability, protected areas, distance to roads, and other infrastructure projects), a new set of land-use change scenarios for Brazil were developed that aligned with the global structure Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) developed by the global change research community. The narratives of the new scenarios align with SSP1/RCP 1.9 (Sustainable development scenario), SSP2/RCP 4.5 (Middle of the road scenario), and SSP3/RCP 7.0 (Strong inequality scenario). The scenarios were developed by combining the LuccME spatially explicit land change allocation modeling framework and the INLAND surface model to incorporate the climatic variables in water deficit. Based on detailed biophysical, socioeconomic, and institutional factors for each biome in Brazil, we have created spatially explicit scenarios until 2050, considering the following classes: forest vegetation, grassland vegetation, planted pasture, agriculture, a mosaic of small land uses, and forestry. The results aim to detail global models regionally. They could be used regionally to support decision-making and enrich the global analysis.

Analytic Hierarchy Process Based Land Suitability for Organic Farming in the Arid Region

The use of organic farming in the Thar desert region (great Indian desert) is extremely low due to the low humidity and high temperatures across India. As a result, the desert area faces significant challenges in agricultural production and in meeting the demand for high-quality food. Thus, the farming community in this area needs to expand to meet the required demands. Geospatial technologies are capable of recommending suitable farming areas in desert regions and, specifically, to increase organic farming. However, the prevalence of organic farming is very low in developing countries. In this study, a multi-criteria decision-making process was used to determine land suitability for organic crops and to increase organic food production. This study attempted to identify suitable land for reliable organic farming in Rajasthan’s Barmer district. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique combined with the geographic information system approach showed that, in the Barmer district, the highly suitable area for organic farming comprises about 832 sq. km and the moderately suitable area covers about 8524 sq. km. Monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and precipitation data were used to identify the impact of organic farming in the Barmer district for the period from January 2017 to December 2020. Finally, this study investigated the quality of land and its application so that it can be used effectively to solve social and economic problems.

Potential Use of Quartzipisamment under Agroforestry and Silvopastoral System for Large-Scale Production in Brazil

The need to put into practice sustainable agricultural production systems has been supported by agroecology science that seeks to optimize land use to food production with the lowest impact on soil. This study evaluated soil quality, based on physical and chemical attributes, in agroforestry (AGF) and silvopastoral (SILVP) systems developed for large-scale food production. The study was carried out in the municipality of Itirapina, state of São Paulo, in two areas with AGF and SILVP system, compared to an area with a forest fragment and another with pasture in a Quartzipisamment Sand Neosol. The soil collections were carried out in the layers of 0.00–0.05, 0.05–0.10, 0.10–0.20, and 0.20–0.40 m, where physical soil attributes were evaluated (total porosity, microporosity, and microporosity, density, mean diameter of aggregates) as well as chemical attributes (macro- and micronutrients), in addition to carbon and nitrogen storage. To interpret the data, Tukey’s test was applied to compare means, and principal component analysis was used to better characterize the study environments. The results showed that agroforestry and silvopastoral systems developed for large-scale production are efficient in improving chemical and physical attributes that reflect on soil quality, especially in the superficial layers of the soil, overcoming pasture and the natural regeneration process. Carbon and nitrogen storage were the main variables that differentiated the production systems, highlighting the importance of the AGF and SILVP systems as more sustainable agricultural intensification strategies, even in soils of low agricultural suitability.

Suitability evaluation of potential arable land in the Mediterranean region

The existing cultivated land in the Mediterranean region faces great pressure from various sources. A suitability evaluation of potential arable land is urgent for helping adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change and human pressure on agricultural production in the Mediterranean region. We integrated 15 biophysical and socio-economic factors from GIS and remote sensing data to perform a suitability evaluation of potential arable land in the Mediterranean region using analytical hierarchy process and radial basis function artificial neural network methods. Moreover, we analyzed the gap between potential arable land and existing cultivated land and compared the evaluation results between the analytical hierarchy process and artificial neural network methods. The results show that the suitability index of potential arable land based on artificial neural network with 6 neurons has the best correlation with average yield and average harvested area. The land area with a suitability grade over medium level accounts for 62.95% of the potential arable land area, of which 45.71% is uncultivated land. Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, Spain and Turkey have great opportunities for agricultural development. Radial basis function artificial neural network outperforms analytical hierarchy process, has better verification results, and requires less input. This study provides an initial insight into the agricultural land suitability of 16 countries around the Mediterranean Sea and introduces a research idea for agricultural land suitability evaluation.

GIS and AHP Based Techniques for Agricultural Land Suitability Assessment in Erbil Province, Kurdistan region, Iraq

The study area comprises Erbil province, Kurdistan region, Iraq. Thirty-five soil samples have been taken from different districts. Several soil analyses have been performed in order to find soil loss as a criterion for land suitability assessment. The other criteria were elevation, slope, aspect ratio, and land use and land cover (LULC). All used criteria have been weighted using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology to find their priorities in order to use them on weighted overlay methodology (WOM) based on the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technique. Integration of AHP and GIS have been utilized in purpose to find the land suitability based on five classes; high suitable (S1), moderately suitable (S2), marginally suitable (S3), not suitable (N1), and not suitable permanently (N2). The result of land suitability shows that the S1 class is generally located at the northwest of the middle part in the study area extended to the southwest, and it occupies an area of 1243.94 km2 (8.61%). The S2 class occupies a minimum area of 85.52 km2 (0.59%), while the S3 class occupies a massive area relatively about 4886.75 km2 (33.82%). The N1 class occupies the highest area, around 6538.32 km2 (45.26%). At the same time, N2 class takes 1693.16 km2 (11.72%). Both N1 and N2 have an area of 8,231 km2 (56.98%) of the total area while S1, S2, and S3, which takes only 6,216 km2 (43.02%).In this study we found the possibility of using GIS and AHP in order to find the land suitability assessment.

Subnational institutions and power of landholders drive illegal deforestation in a major commodity production frontier

Deforestation is a main threat to the biosphere due to its contribution to biodiversity loss, carbon emissions, and land degradation. Most deforestation is illegal and continues unabated, representing around half of the total deforestation in the tropics and subtropics. Quantifying illegal deforestation is challenging, let alone assessing the social and institutional processes underlying its occurrence. We tackle this challenge by quantifying the relative influence of individual (i.e., landholders’ power, landholding size) and contextual (i.e., subnational institutions, agricultural suitability) factors on the type and size of illegal deforestation in the Argentine Dry Chaco, a major commodity production frontier and global deforestation hotspot. We build a Bayesian network fed with data of 244 illegal deforestation events, obtained from journalistic articles, grey literature, key informant interviews, and geospatial analyses. The results reveal that more powerful landholders were associated with larger illegal deforestation events. Policy simulations suggest that higher concentration of land in the hands of powerful landholders and more flexible subnational forest regulations would escalate illegal deforestation. This points to the need for a smart policy mix that integrates across economic, agricultural, and environmental sectors to halt illegal deforestation at commodity production frontiers. A land tenure reform can facilitate forest protection, while incentives to land-use diversification and the criminal prosecution of illegal deforestation are critical to shift landholder behavior towards more balanced production and conservation outcomes.

Community Managed Protected Areas Conserve Aboveground Carbon Stocks: Implications for REDD+

Protected Areas (PAs) represent a broad spectrum of outcomes and governance systems. Among PAs, Community Managed PAs have emerged from communities that are not exclusively indigenous and have developed social organizations to acquire land rights, participate in forest governance, and in some cases, engage in REDD+. However, regardless of the scale or counterfactual, there is no clear consensus about Community Managed PAs’ effectiveness in forest conservation and climate change mitigation. Furthermore, previous studies have been devoted to estimating PAs’ effects on deforestation before REDD+ projects began to operate. Based on Community Concessions in Petén (Guatemala) and Extractive Reserves in Acre (Brazil), we analyzed Community Managed PAs’ temporal and spatial effects on carbon stocks and avoided emissions relative to unprotected lands, other Sustainable Use PAs (IUCN V-VI), and Strict PAs (I-IV). We used carbon density maps, matching methods, geographic discontinuity designs, and sensitivity analysis between 2003 and 2015. After controlling for the influence of market access and agriculture suitability, our analysis shows that Community Managed PAs were more effective than Other Lands (i.e., unprotected) and Sustainable Use PAs, and at least as effective as Strict PAs, in preserving carbon stocks and avoiding emissions. For instance, relative to Other Lands between 2011 and 2015, Community Managed PAs resulted in net avoided emissions of 4.6 tCO2-eq/ha in Petén (Guatemala) and 2.15 tCO2-eq/ha in Acre (Brazil). While these net avoided emissions were lower than in previous years, they seem to be driven by a reduction in carbon emissions outside Community Managed PAs. Spatially, the boundaries of Community Managed PAs varied across jurisdictions. For example, the boundaries of Acre’s Community Managed PAs’ have become less effective in avoiding emissions, which translates into reduced effects on conserving carbon stocks. Our results highlight the need to assess temporal effects to exhibit jurisdiction-wide land-use dynamics and spatial effects to identify local land-use pressures emerging inside or around the boundaries of PAs. Our analysis also shows that decentralized governance in Community Managed PAs may contribute to climate change mitigation through REDD+ and forest conservation targets.

Hydro‐Morphological Disturbance and Suitability for Temporary Agriculture of Riverine Islands in a Tropical Wandering River

AbstractFluvial islands define fundamental interfaces between the aquatic and terrestrial environment in river corridors, have unique environmental value, and represent a place of interest for human communities worldwide. Temporary agriculture occurs in many riverine islands in tropical regions of the planet, but this has received little attention so far. By integrating remote sensing, field and laboratory investigations, hydrological and hydraulic analysis, we quantified controls on their agricultural suitability in terms of fluvial disturbance, morphological stability, soils characteristics, and selection of flood‐resistant crops. A highly dynamic foothill reach of the wandering Huallaga River (Peruvian Amazon) where temporary agriculture is practiced by local farmers is used as a case study. Islands show rapid turnover rates, with their number and total area tripling in the 1986‐2019 period, in association with recent river corridor widening. Simulated disturbance‐free windows of opportunity can be long enough (up to 230 days, for plantain) to cultivate on the most elevated portions of the largest islands, about 3 m above the thalweg. A gradient of increasing agricultural suitability paralleled that of decreasing fluvial disturbance from the most recently developed island (e.g., organic matter 0.2%–1.2%) to the more stable one (0.1%–2.6%) to the established floodplain (0.5%–3.5%). While the floodplain is more suitable for farming, we quantified how suitable islands are for temporary food production. Our results are generalized through a conceptual model for fluvial islands' agricultural suitability, thus filling an important knowledge gap about the characteristics of those highly sensitive environments within floodplains still moderately affected by human activities.

Irrigation Water Characteristics, Their Correlations and Suitability for Agriculture in District Gujranwala (A Survey Study)

Irrigation Water Characteristics, Their Correlations and Suitability for Agriculture in District Gujranwala (A Survey Study)

AHP-GeoTOPSIS method to analyze priority areas for sugarcane plantation development in Lamongan Regency

Sugar imports are carried out every year in Indonesia to meet domestic needs. The average sugar imports from 2015 to 2019 reached 4.34 million tons. The Spatial Plan of Lamongan Regency 2011-2031 proclaims the development of sugarcane plantations, but the priority assessment of the development area which takes into account the balance of sugarcane availability in the future has not been scientifically studied. This study aimed to analyze the priority areas for sugarcane plantation development in Lamongan Regency. Analysis of development priorities was carried out using the AHP-GeoTOPSIS method and involving six experts. The criteria used include the number of agricultural households, suitability, and availability of land for sugarcane, population, and the balance of sugarcane availability in each sub-district. Land use datasets were used to calculate the suitability and availability of land and the balance of sugarcane availability in each sub-district. Based on the analysis, there were five priority areas for land development. There four subdistricts to be developed are as follows: Ngimbang, Solokuro, Mantup, and Kedungpring with weight values of 0.797, 0.776, 0.726, and 0.683, respectively. The study results can be used as input for the development of sugarcane plantations within the spatial plan of Lamongan Regency.

Climate Change Induced Reduction in Agricultural Land Suitability of West-Africa's Inland Valley Landscapes

Climate Change Induced Reduction in Agricultural Land Suitability of West-Africa's Inland Valley Landscapes

Agricultural land suitability analysis of Bankura district of West Bengal using AHP and GIS Techniques

Agricultural land suitability analysis of Bankura district of West Bengal using AHP and GIS Techniques

WATER SALINIZATION IN IRAQ AND SOME SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS

The salinity status in the Iraq needs a continuous assessment because it is continuously changing due to many factors. This article highlights the problem in the country and aims to assess the increasing salinization of some water resources. It suggests some recommendations for optimizing the beneficial utilization of this phenomenon. Experimentally, water samples were collected from 1242 site in the Iraq country and chemically analyzed to estimate the salinity parameters and indices for the agricultural suitability including the sodium percentage (Na%), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), and the permeability index (PI). The analysis results have indicated wide variations in the pH, EC, TDS and types of soluble ions for the estimated resources. The general trend of TDS and EC as parameters of water salinization for some governorates may indicate the presence of some organic contaminants. The TDS approximately equalled the EC in Karbala, Ninewa and Thi-Qar. The sequence of the predominating ions was Ca2+ > Mg2+ > Na+ > K+ and NO3‒a> SO42‒ > Cl‒ > HCO3‒, respectively for the governorates Anbar, Babylon, Baghdad, and Basrah. The predominance of some types of cations and/or anions may be related to environmental, geological, and human practices factors. Many samples can be suitable for irrigation and agricultural use with good Na% (20-40%), acceptable Mg% (<50%), excellent SAR (<10), and PI class 2 and 3. Despite the severity of the problem, suitable management can use the saline water resources for sustainable development to turn the disadvantages into advantages. Suggested Solutions are presented for the agricultural sustainability including the irrigation and fertilization management, planting trees in the right location, biotechnology, and genetic engineering. Examples for the desalination technologies are discussed such as the Bio-Electro-remediation and Reverse electro-dialysis (RED) as an energy-efficient water desalination using Capacitive Deionization (CDI) technique and freeze desalination.

Land Suitability Analysis for Potential Agriculture Land Use in Sambhunath Municipality, Saptari, Nepal

Rapid and unplanned urbanization and haphazard infrastructure development causes pressure on the finite land resource and there is urgent need to preserve the arable land for food security. Land suitability analysis is a technique in which the land quality assessment is performed through interpretation of land properties for allocation of lands for particular use. The present paper attempts to conduct a land suitability analysis to determine the potential sites for agriculture land use in Sambhunath municipality of Saptari district. The criteria/ factors for the land suitability analysis were identified through literatures and modified in the local context through expert opinions and focus group discussions. The evaluation of agriculture land is accomplished using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) and Geographic Information System (GIS). Agriculture suitability index was developed and optimized qualitatively through the strength, weakness, opportunity, and threat (SWOT) analysis. Finally, potential agriculture suitability index map is prepared. The analysis shows almost 3139 ha (29%) lands as 14 highly suitable and 3001 ha (28%) of moderately suitable agriculture land within the municipality. Almost all the suitable agriculture land is located at low land with flat terrain to gentle slope having high natural fertility and mainly in land capability classes I and II. The unsuitable and poorly suitable agriculture land is occupied in the undulating areas and hilly terrain of the Siwalik hill. The study found the GIS tool integrated with MCE-AHP useful in land suitability evaluation process and anticipated that it could act as the planning tool to allocate lands in land use planning for sustainable agricultural practices.

Agricultural land suitability assessment for agricultural productivity based on GIS modeling and multi-criteria decision analysis: the case of Tekirdağ province.

Grains play a significant role in meeting the nutritional needs of the increasing world population. Consequently, the need for new studies on agricultural production and land suitability assessments has increased. The present paper aims to perform agricultural land suitability assessment to evaluate agricultural productivity in Tekirdağ province to determine precise productive agricultural areas. This study combines a variety of datasets to develop a dynamic model using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis for land suitability assessment and agricultural productivity. The datasets used in this study are supported by terrestrial samples and processed with spatial technologies. The results of the study indicate that the agricultural potential of the provincial lands is quite high. It reveals that 65.7% of province lands are suitable for agricultural production. Of the remaining lands, 20.3% is marginally suitable while only 8% of the land is unsuitable for agricultural production. In the northwestern part, suitable land for agricultural productivity is higher compared to other parts of the study area. This part also corresponds to the areas where industrial activities are marginal. The results also imply that agricultural activities in grain production areas must be reconsidered and replanned according to the new classification of land suitability assessment. In this respect, our study suggests that the policymakers and the government should take necessary steps to ensure the protection and sustainability of agricultural lands while planning for the industrial and settlement development in grain production areas.