Prices Of Agricultural Products Research Articles

The time-varying dynamic impact of US renewable energy prices on agricultural prices in China: the case of fuel ethanol.

This paper intends to look into the time-varying dynamic impact of US fuel ethanol, one of the renewable energy sources, on the prices of agricultural products (specifically corn, soybeans, rice, and wheat) in China based on monthly price data from January 2000 to January 2023. To achieve this, a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is employed, which takes into account structural changes in emergencies through time-varying parameters. The empirical results show that the equal-interval impulse responses of price fluctuations in agricultural commodities are primarily positive to variations in fuel ethanol prices and production. And the intensity and direction of the effects vary at distinct time lags. Additionally, the magnitude of these responses is most pronounced in the short term for all agricultural commodities except for corn, and the duration of the impulse responses at different time points is generally longer for corn prices compared to other commodities. The study also reveals that the influence of US fuel ethanol on Chinese agricultural commodity prices is not substantial on the whole. Therefore, there is a necessity to advance the growth of biofuels and provide policy support and financial subsidies for agricultural products earmarked for food production. These actions could shed insights into the progression of Chinese renewable energy and food policies, ensuring the stability of the market in the long run.

ASSESSMENT OF THE QUALITY OF LAND IN THE SARATOV TRANS-VOLGA REGION WHEN INVOLVING UNUSED ARABLE LAND IN PRODUCTION

ASSESSMENT OF THE QUALITY OF LAND IN THE SARATOV TRANS-VOLGA REGION WHEN INVOLVING UNUSED ARABLE LAND IN PRODUCTION

Integrated assessment of irrigation and agriculture management challenges in Nepal: An interdisciplinary perspective

Agriculture plays a critical role in ensuring food and nutrition security, livelihood, and rural employment in Nepal. Despite substantial investments and institutional reforms, irrigation projects have faced consistently low performance. While existing studies have shed light on technical aspects of irrigation performance, they often focus on specific themes rather than holistic evaluations of sustainability. This research systematically assesses barriers and challenges to effective irrigation water management in Nepal by assessing and ranking the challenges faced by three irrigation systems located in western Nepal: Mahakali, Rani Jamara Kulariya, and Babai. To investigate these challenges, we collected data from 449 households, which provided insights into 33 indicators representing key barriers to effective irrigation and agricultural management. The identified challenges were categorized into four broad thematic areas: physical and structural, agricultural and water, socioeconomic and market, and gender and governance. A comprehensive evaluation was conducted to compare these challenges among the three irrigation schemes, different thematic areas, and various locations within each scheme (namely, the head, mid, and tail sections of the system). The findings revealed that timely access and availability of fertilizers, spring water availability and fair market prices of agricultural products are the most significant challenges. The Babai irrigation system faced the most substantial challenges among the three systems, particularly in the middle section. These findings emphasize the interconnectedness of these challenges, highlighting the need for a holistic approach to planning, implementation, and management. Integrated strategies are essential to address socioeconomic, market, and endogenous farming issues, ensuring reliable irrigation water availability for sustainable agricultural production.

Agricultural price prediction based on data mining and attention-based gated recurrent unit: a case study on China’s hog

Under the influence of the coronavirus disease and other factors, agricultural product prices show non-stationary and non-linear characteristics, making it increasingly difficult to forecast accurately. This paper proposes an innovative combinatorial model for Chinese hog price forecasting. First, the price is decomposed using the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using the Loess (STL) model. Next, the decomposed data are trained with the Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. Finally, the prepared data and the multivariate influence factors after Factor analysis are predicted using the gated recurrent neural network and attention mechanisms (AttGRU) to obtain the final prediction values. Compared with other models, the STL-FA-AttGRU model produced the lowest errors and achieved more accurate forecasts of hog prices. Therefore, the model proposed in this paper has the potential for other price forecasting, contributing to the development of precision and sustainable agriculture.

The Agro-Industrial Complex of the China and the Position of the State in the World Market

The PRC is integrated into various economic communities, which allows it to play a significant role in the world market in the production of not only industrial products, but also agricultural ones. The purpose of this article is to analyze the export-import policy and dynamics of mutual trade in agricultural products between the EAEU and China, as well as the capitalization structure of Chinese agro-industrial companies. The article examines the legal basis of the export-import agricultural policy of the PRC, analyzes the dynamics of export-import of agricultural products between the EAEU and China, presents the distribution of Chinese agro-industrial companies by type of business and the distribution of capital of Chinese agro-industrial companies. The study used methods of analysis and synthesis of the studied material based on statistical data from the OECD, the World Bank, the IMF, the UN FAO, FAPRI, as well as the ministries specialized in agriculture of the PRC and the Russian Federation from 2015 to 2022. According to the forecast for 2023, India, China, Africa and a number of Central Asian countries will experience a decrease in world prices for agricultural products. The main conclusion is that China will remain self-sufficient in major crops, although production growth will slow in the coming years

Prediction of Weekly Price Trend of Garlic Based on Classification Algorithm and Combined Features

To promote the sustainable development of the garlic industry and provide a reference for the prediction of agricultural product price trends, this study used the garlic price in Jinxiang, China as the research object. First, the feature combination De was obtained by extracting the sequence obtained using VMD decomposition. Then, the De_Vo combined feature was constructed by combining the volatility feature Vo. Classification algorithms, such as logistic regression, SVM, and XGBoost, were used to classify and predict the garlic price trend. The results showed that the prediction results based on the combined features were better than those based on the single De or Vo features. In the binary classification prediction, the accuracy values for LR, SVM, and XGBoost were 62.6%, 71.4%, and 72.9%, respectively. Among them, the XGBoost algorithm performed better than the LR and SVM algorithms in the three-class, four-class, and five-class predictions.

Leasing in Russian agricultural economy: current stage of development

The purpose of the study is to analyze leasing sustainable development as the main investment mechanism of the Russian agrarian sector technical re-equipment. The author uses general scientific methods (analysis and synthesis, economic and statistical methods, graphical methods, etc.). The current state of the domestic agrarian sector technical equipment, the development of agricultural machinery leasing market development, issues and prospects for the use of agrarian leasing at the present stage have been considered. Considering the current situation in the domestic market, decreased prices for agricultural products and outstripping growth of prices for equipment, domestic agricultural producers need systemic state support to maintain the machinery and tractor fleet renewal pace. In conditions of agricultural machinery and investment resources for its reproduction deficit, leasing is one of the effective tools in solving the technical potential of the agricultural sector technical potential strengthening issues. The main promising areas of leasing mechanisms application, contributing to technical re-equipment acceleration in the agricultural sector have been proposed (sustainable development projects, national “green taxonomy”, “green” bonds; agricultural machinery market digitalization development; use of leasing mechanisms for the machinery and technology complexes development as a modern form of joint machinery use in agriculture). The proposed areas will ensure systemic development and acceleration of Russian agrarian sector technical re-equipment.

Dynamics of cereal product price transmission between markets in Burkina Faso

PurposeEffective agricultural product price regulation policies depend on market integration and the degree of symmetry in the transmission of agricultural product price signals. This study analyzes the transmission and asymmetry of the price series between the Ouagadougou consumer market and assembly markets considering three primary cereal products in Burkina Faso.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) econometric model, which is an asymmetric extension of the ARDL cointegration model. The price series examined covers the period extending from January 2005 to December 2020.FindingsOur analysis provides novel insights regarding short- and long-term asymmetric effects in the transmission of price signals between assembly markets and the consumer market. We also determine that the effects of negative shocks are more persistent than those of positive shocks in several markets.Research limitations/implicationsFor markets that exhibit symmetrical responses of assembly market prices to consumer market prices, the results could reflect the continuous efforts of market players, particularly the government, to eliminate market failures and ensure the long-term efficiency of cereal markets. To this end, an agricultural market information system can have a crucial role in easing information access for all market players.Originality/valueThis study provides new evidence regarding the nature of the transmission and asymmetry of price information on primary cereal products in the largest markets in Burkina Faso. Applying the NARDL model makes it possible to simultaneously estimate short- and long-term asymmetry.

An Assessment of Food Value Chains to Identify Gaps and Make Recommendations for Further Development: A Slovenian Case Study

The content of this paper presents the research results of a three-year research project in which a multi-criteria evaluation model (according to the DEX methodology) was developed for the evaluation of three different food sectors (represented by a cattle breeding chain, a pig farming chain, and a milk production chain) with added value in Slovenia. Indicators for the assessment of the economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable development of food chains were taken into account. The data for the analysis, such as prices and costs of food, wage levels by sector, food miles and others, were obtained from various public services between 2020 and 2023. The final qualitative assessment of the food sectors was uniform (“average”), while the longest analysis of the results using the plus-minus-1 analysis method showed the reasons for such an assessment in individual sectors (such as the ratio between the price of agricultural products and the price of agricultural inputs is poor, the ratio between average gross salary in the individual food sector and gross salary in the agricultural sector is poor, etc.). In addition to the results already mentioned, recommendations or suggestions for building a sustainable food chain were made using the results of the modelling. The research results contributed to a better understanding of the importance of stable relationships between different groups of indicators and later showed their importance for improving the functioning of agri-food chains. The results of the research will help various stakeholders (such as the agricultural advisory service, decision-makers at the level of agricultural policy, researchers in further analyses, and especially the international professional public interested in various case studies from EU countries) to further analyse and plan for the organisation of the agricultural sector.

Does it matter how we ship the good apples out? On specific tariffs, transport modes, and agricultural export prices

AbstractFree‐on‐board (FOB) export prices for identical products from the same origin often differ across destinations, even when accounting for the trade costs and attributes of the destination country. One explanation for this observed price difference is per‐unit trade costs, and the ability of exporters to vary their markups and/or product quality. Using a novel dataset that details trade flows between countries by mode of transport, we estimate the transport mode‐specific effect of a per‐unit trade cost, specifically specific tariffs, on the FOB export prices of agricultural products. We find an elasticity of specific tariffs to export prices of 1.8%. However, the estimates are heterogeneous across modes of transport. The elasticity of specific tariffs to export prices is 2% for air transport, 5% for road transport, and .3% for sea cargo. Since the observed positive export price effect can reflect product quality differences or markups, we account for the quality element and find that for a given product quality, markups increase with increasing specific tariffs. This form of price discrimination is less pronounced for higher‐quality products that are predominantly shipped by air.

Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and LSTM Models for Agricultural Product Price Forecasting

The fluctuations in vegetable prices can have an impact on the economy. Machine learning can identify price trend changes. This study investigates the performance of ARIMA and LSTM models in predicting price trends for agricultural products, focusing on greens and lotus roots. The objective was to ascertain the superior model in terms of accurately reflecting market oscillations—a critical aspect for stakeholders in the agricultural sector. The investigation contrasted the ARIMA model's adeptness at detecting linear tendencies against the LSTM's capacity to decode intricate nonlinear dynamics. Empirical assessment employing metrics such as RMSE, MAE, and SMAPE disclosed a consistent supremacy of the ARIMA model over the LSTM in both datasets. This was particularly evident within the lotus root forecasts, where the discrepancy in error metrics for LSTM was remarkably pronounced. The outcomes indicate that notwithstanding the sophisticated structure of LSTM, ARIMA models maintain their status as robust and precise tools for agricultural time series forecasting. This is especially pertinent in contexts demanding computational efficiency and model interpretability. This investigation evaluates the efficacy of ARIMA and LSTM models in forecasting time-series data for agricultural commodities.

Development of small businesses producing cereals, legumes, and sunflower seeds in wartime conditions

Small businesses producing cereals, legumes, and sunflower seeds contribute to the country’s food security and environmental protection potential. The purpose of this study was to substantiate the social, economic, and conceptual foundations of small business entities’ activities in the production of cereals, legumes, and sunflower seeds in modern conditions. The methodological framework of the study included the provisions of institutional economic theory and functional analysis. To generalise the results, the study employed analysis, graphic, and abstract-logical methods, and approaches of generalisation of results. The motivational orientation of the functioning of small businesses engaged in the production of cereals, legumes, and sunflower seeds and their place in production and consumption were determined. The study found that in 2023, the company achieved a record grain yield of 51.8 100 kg/ha, which was driven by favourable weather conditions. It was substantiated that the cost of crop production has increased due to lower prices for agricultural products (maize by -41%; sunflower by -35%; wheat by -37%) and an almost twofold increase in the cost of plant protection products and fuel. It was proved that in 2017-2022, 91.79% of the variation in net profit is explained by the variation in the level of grain, legumes, and sunflower seeds sold by small businesses. It was found that the disruption of the sales system of small businesses producing cereals, legumes, and sunflower seeds, the low level of purchase prices and the considerable increase in prices for material and technical sources of survival and fertilisers due to the hostilities make production inefficient. The development of small businesses and family farming stays one of the priority areas of regional policy. The information and analytical material can be considered when creating regional programmes for the development of agrarian entrepreneurship.

South Korea: Impact of The Ukraine and Russia conflict

The specter of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict looms large, casting a long and unsettling shadow across the tapestry of the global economy. Its chilling tendrils reach even the most seemingly insulated corners, ensnaring nations like South Korea in its vortex. This vibrant Asian tiger, deeply entwined in the intricate web of global trade, finds itself thrust into the maelstrom of this geopolitical quagmire. The economic ramifications, far from being mere ripples, have unfurled in a multifaceted storm, presenting a formidable challenge to the nation's economic stability and demanding a nuanced and multifaceted response. At the heart of this economic tempest lies the intricate web of financial sanctions woven by a resolute coalition of nations against Russia. These measures, meticulously crafted to sever the arteries of the Russian war machine and isolate its economy, have sent tremors through the very foundations of global finance. Traditional trade and investment flows, once predictable currents, have become turbulent eddies, swirling with uncertainty and risk aversion. South Korea, with its extensive economic tentacles reaching across the dynamic landscapes of Europe and Asia, has inevitably felt the tremors of this financial earthquake. Navigating this altered landscape, where familiar landmarks have shifted and once-reliable harbors now harbor hidden shoals, presents a significant challenge to the nation's financial institutions and policymakers. The delicate dance of mitigating potential exposure to the unfolding economic turbulence requires a deftness of footwork and a keen eye for the ever-shifting sands of the global financial market. Further compounding the economic woes is the pronounced surge in the prices of vital commodities, particularly energy and agricultural products. Both Russia and Ukraine, hitherto considered reliable bastions of resource abundance, have seen their production and export capacities crippled by the conflict. This disruption has sent shockwaves through international markets, triggering a vertiginous spiral in the prices of these essential resources. South Korea, heavily reliant on imported energy and foodstuffs, finds itself on the receiving end of this price escalation. Inflated import costs threaten to erode the very foundations of consumer purchasing power, casting a long shadow over economic growth and raising the specter of potent inflationary pressures. The specter of empty shelves and rising prices haunts Korean households, adding a layer of human anxiety to the broader economic quandary. Finally, the conflict has thrown international supply chains into disarray. The delicate arteries of global trade, once pulsing with the lifeblood of commerce, have been severely constricted by the disruption of land and sea routes, further exacerbated by the sanctions imposed upon Russia. South Korea, intricately woven into the fabric of these globalized production and trade networks, finds itself grappling with the ramifications of these disruptions. Delays in the delivery of raw materials and manufactured components threaten to hobble its own industrial output and hamper its export competitiveness. The very engines of the Korean economic juggernaut sputter and cough, their rhythm disrupted by the absence of vital parts sourced from across the globe. The anxieties of factory owners and the concerns of everyday workers alike paint a poignant picture of the human cost of this economic maelstrom.

ПАРАМЕТРИЧЕСКИЕ МЕТОДЫ ЦЕНООБРАЗОВАНИЯ: МЕТОДИКА И ПРАКТИКА ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ

The scientific article contains a review of economic publications presenting scientific research by domestic and foreign scientists on the problems of pricing in the agricultural sector of the economy: establishing the optimal level of purchase, wholesale and retail prices for agricultural products, ensuring the growth of financial results by increasing income from the sale of products, identifying the dynamics food market, forecasting price dynamics in agricultural production, methodology of pricing policy and price relations of agricultural organizations. A production feasibility study was conducted for the expected sales volume. The influence of sales timing (first batches or the main harvest of agricultural products) and price on the amount of demand (expected sales volume) is shown. A function has been constructed for the dependence of sales volume on the price of agricultural products, clearly showing that an increase in sales volume is possible if the price of agricultural products decreases. It is indicated that at the beginning of the season, a high price repels the consumer, this negatively affects the amount of revenue. A paired regression equation was constructed, and the expected sales volume was determined using regression analysis. The methodology for calculating the total costs of production, their classification depending on the degree of variability (the influence of the expected sales volume) is shown. It is noted that in total costs there is a constant part (fixed costs that do not depend on the expected sales volume) and a variable part (variable costs that change in direct proportion to changes in the expected sales volume). A profit generation model is described, including data from a regression analysis of the expected sales volume and calculation of the total costs of production.

Land competition and welfare effects from Mexico's proposal to ban genetically engineered corn

AbstractSince joining the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexico has increased its meat production and exports and become more dependent on imported feedstuffs such as genetically engineered (GE) corn. Mexico recently banned the use of GE corn in corn‐based foods and called for a gradual substitution away from the use of GE corn for other uses (e.g., feed). This paper considers how a complete ban on GE corn might affect Mexican households using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impact over the medium run (5 years). Results indicate that Mexico decreases corn imports by 76.9% and increases corn production by 65.6%—an increase that would require 3.3 million hectares more land for corn. The policy leads to a 24.8% increase in Mexico's corn price and up to a 6% increase in the prices of other agricultural products. But Mexico might have difficulty shifting land to corn; as such, we consider an alternative scenario that restricts land movements. We find that impacts are further exacerbated in this scenario—for example, corn prices triple. Our final contribution is to pair these results with a compensating variation calculation based on the almost ideal demand system. We find that Mexican households would need to spend, on average, between 6.7 and 13.9% more on food, depending on the scenario, to compensate for the resulting price escalations. Ultimately, our results show that a move toward greater food sovereignty in Mexico is ultimately borne by consumers via higher food prices.

Modeling the Farmer Exchange Rate in Indonesia Using the Vector Error Correction Model Method

The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in the Indonesian economy. However, the farm sector still has serious problems, including agricultural product prices, which often fall when the harvest supply is abundant. So often, the income obtained is not proportional to the price spent by farmers, which has an impact on decreasing the welfare of farmers. An indicator to observe changes in the interest of Indonesian farmers is the Farmer Exchange Rate Index (NTP). This study aims to form a model and project the welfare level of farmers in Indonesia, focusing on NTP indicators, which are caused by the influence of variables such as inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate. The method used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), used when there are indications that the research variables do not show stability at the initial level and there is a cointegration relationship. The results of this study show that in the long run, significant factors affecting NTP are inflation, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the short term, the variables that have an impact are GDP and the rupiah exchange rate. The resulting VECM model shows a MAPE error rate of 1.79%, indicating excellent performance, as the MAPE error rate is below 10%. The implication of this research is provides information related to NTP projection that can be used to formulate strategies to strengthen Indonesia's agricultural sector.

Features of the development of the agricultural marketing system using information technologies

Forecasting prices for agricultural products is a complex, end-to-end and dynamic task of agricultural marketing. With constant development and changes in data sources, data types, data quality, data processing methods, model building methods, and model evaluation methods, agricultural price forecasting methods will also be updated and improved. An overview of the use of digital technologies is proposed, leading to profound changes in the functioning of economic factors, including in the agro-industrial complex. The article shows that the digital transformation (digitalization) of the agro-industrial market will lead to a change in the sectoral structure of the agro-industrial complex due to the replacement of traditional industries with new ones based on forecasts obtained using artificial intelligence systems. The paper provides an overview of specialized applied software products that are available on the Internet and are used to analyze financial data. An overview of modern information technologies, which allow convenient processing, systematization and visualization of data, as well as forecasting the movement of asset prices, was carried out. Scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis methods, quantitative and qualitative assessment methods, which were used to determine the content of marketing concepts and its features in the activities of agro-industrial enterprises, as well as the method of source analysis served as the scientific and theoretical basis for deepening the research. When selecting sources for analysis, a search was made in open databases available in the global information network Internet, on the basis of which neural network training was carried out. The main functionalities of the created system are described, including a visual comparison of historical data, price movement forecasting using machine learning, and recommendations on the optimal content of the investment portfolio. The results obtained in the work substantiate the following basic propositions: - digitalization leads not only to technological, but also to organizational transformations in the agro-industrial complex; - the result of digital transformation will be a profound change in the model of the organization of the agro-industrial complex and its role in the national economy; - agribusiness needs to take measures to support the digital transformation of the agro-industrial market and the adaptation of the agro-industrial complex to the new digital system.

Spillover Effect of Network Public Opinion on Market Prices of Small-Scale Agricultural Products

Network public opinion plays a crucial role in the behavior and decision making of various stakeholders, including farmers, middlemen, and consumers. It also affects the price fluctuations of small-scale agricultural products. Understanding the transmission path and spillover effect of network public opinion on the price fluctuations of these products is essential for ensuring their sustainable development and price stability. This paper selects the monthly data of network public opinion and related market prices of small-scale agricultural products from January 2014 to December 2021, constructs a network public opinion value through the sentiment classification results of deep learning models, and uses the trivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model and spillover index model to study the spillover effect and spillover index of network public opinion on the market prices of small-scale agricultural products (national average price and origin price). The results show that: (1) There is a bidirectional volatility spillover effect between public opinion sentiment and the market prices of small-scale agricultural products. Additionally, this two-way volatility spillover effect is also evident between the average market prices and the origin prices of these commodities. (2) The influence of network public opinion on the market prices of small-scale agricultural products is substantial, with the spillover index being more pronounced for origin prices than for national average prices and reaching its zenith earlier. Consequently, based on these results, recommendations are provided to adapt planting and inventory strategies, enhance vigilance towards price risk transmission amongst small-scale agricultural product markets, and improve the comprehensive information platform encompassing the entire industry chain.

Monetary policy and overshooting of agricultural prices in China: in a supply chain perspective

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to test the overshooting effects of monetary expansion on prices of agricultural products at farm production, processing and circulation stages in China, and to investigate the heterogeneity of the overshooting mechanisms in these three links.Design/methodology/approachEmpirical results are obtained through the vector error correction model and the overshooting framework proposed by Saghaian et al. (2002b). Specifically, we first apply the Dickey–Fuller generalized least squares (DF-GLS) method to test the stationarity of the key variables, and then use the Johansen’s (1991) method to conduct the cointegration test. Finally, the vector error correction model is employed to examine the overshooting hypotheses in the three stages of China’s agricultural sector.FindingsEmpirical results indicate that overshooting of prices relative to monetary expansion in China’s agricultural sector is a common phenomenon, but with significant heterogeneity. Firstly, at the stage of agricultural production, the overshooting degree and restoration rate of material price are greater than those of agricultural products price. Secondly, at the processing stage of agricultural products, both the purchase price of agricultural products and industrial producer price have an overshooting effect, but the overshooting effect of the former is more significant than the latter. Thirdly, at the circulation stage of agricultural products, the overshooting coefficient of the wholesale price index of agricultural products is the most significant, while that of the retail and purchase price of agricultural products is not significant.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to proposing a comprehensive framework on testing the overshooting effects for three main stages of agricultural sector in China and empirically investigating the heterogeneity of the overshooting mechanisms in different stages with time series methods.

Konversi Lahan Pertanian Dan Dampaknya Terhadap Kesejahteraan Petani Dan Ketahanan Pangan Di Provinsi Bali

<p><em>Land conversion is a logical consequence of increasing activity and population as well as other development processes. Land conversion is a natural thing to happen, but in reality, land conversion is a problem because it occurs on agricultural land that is still productive. The purpose of this study was to determine the factors that influence the conversion of agricultural land; know the impact of conversion of agricultural land on the welfare of farmers; and understanding the impact of the conversion on food security. Data analysis used in this study was factor analysis using a computer with the SPSS 19.0 program package.</em><em> </em><em>Based on the results of the research, the conclusion that can be drawn from this research is that the main factors driving land conversion are external and internal. The dominant external factors driving conversion are increased land requirements, more promising jobs in other sectors, uncertainty in the price of agricultural products (price fluctuations), and difficulties in finding workers in the agricultural sector. Internal factors driving land conversion are difficulties in obtaining water resources, high risk, and economic pressure; there was an increase in the income of Subak Gadon farmers on an average of IDR 240,650/are/month as a result of farmers converting land from paddy fields to utilization for business ventures. Land conversion does not affect the food security of farming families but affects food supply at the regional level.</em></p>