Agricultural Output Growth Research Articles

Bank Credit And Agricultural Output In South Africa: Cointegration, Short Run Dynamics And Causality

In this paper we investigate the dynamic relationship between bank credit and agricultural output in South Africa using time series data from 1970 to 2011. Using the Johansen cointegration test, we observe bank credit and agricultural output to be cointegrated. In the long run we find credit and capital formation to have significant positive impact on agricultural output. Employing an ECM, we find that, in the short run, bank credit has a negative impact on agricultural output reflecting the uncertainties of institutional credit in South Africa. However, the ECM coefficient shows that agricultural GDP rapidly adjusts to short term disturbances indicating that there is no room for tardiness in the agricultural sector. The absence of institutional credit will be immediately replaced by availability of other credit facilities from non-institutional sources so that there is no room for possible non-application of intermediate inputs. Conventional Granger causality tests show uni-directional causality from (1) bank credit to agricultural output growth; (2) agricultural output to capital formation; (3) agricultural output to labour; (4) capital formation to credit; (5) capital formation to labour, and a bi-directional causality between credit and labour. Noteworthy is that for the agricultural sector the direction of causality is from finance to growth, i.e., supply-leading, whereas at the macroeconomic level the direction of causality is from economic growth to finance, i.e., demand-leading.

Impact of Financial Sector Reforms on Agricultural Growth in Nigeria: A Vector Autoregressive (Var) Approach

The financial sector has witnessed several reforms over the decade. The associated impact of this is also felt in the agricultural sector. The study was carried out to assess the impact of financial sector reforms on agricultural growth in Nigeria from 1970-2009. Secondary data were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics and National Population Commission and analyzed using vector error correction model (VECM) approach. The result revealed that financial sector reforms in the baseline and sensitivity model significantly impact on agricultural growth both in the long and short-run. However, the impact of financial sector reforms shock in the sensitivity model on agricultural output growth was lower by 0.60 percent when compared with 78.85 percent in the baseline model. This implied that financial sector reforms could play a significant role in the growth of the agricultural sector by increasing its production level and independently generate positive investments in the sector than in the sensitivity result. It is therefore recommended that government should adopt strong macroeconomic policies targeted to kick-start meaningful growth in the agricultural and financial sectors as well as provide the enabling environment for farming as a business through concessionary interest rates, tax free and import duty concessions. These Original Research Article Akpaeti; AJEA, 7(1): 17-35, 2015; Article no.AJEA.2015.102 18 financial and fiscal incentives when provided would encourage further output growth in the agricultural sector of the country.

Paddy Cultivation in Kerala – Trends, Determinants and Effects on Food Security

The statistical profile of Kerala agriculture since 1960, clearly established the decrease in the area under paddy cultivation in the state. Time series analysis of acreage, production and productivity data of rice in Kerala during the five decades from 1960-61 to 2009-10 revealed the performance of this crop in terms of growth of area, production and productivity. The production of major food crop, rice, reached negative growth rates due to the declining trend of their area. The diversification of crops in terms of variation in acreage allocation has taken place due to price and non-price factors like agro-climatic conditions, labour availability, irrigation facilities, soil fertility, cost of cultivation, price levels, profitability, mechanisation etc. The change has taken place largely in favour of non-food crops and recently it is towards rubber. The real growth of agricultural crop output has declined continuously since 1960-61 compared to monetary growth, i. e, the growth in the value of agricultural crop output. Food security, particularly rice security is the vital issue for Kerala today. The data reveals that during 1960-61 Kerala had a shortage of rice of about 40.12 percent, which increased to 83.45 percent in 2009-10. The study clearly revealed the increasing demand for rice in Kerala in the coming years compared to the existing supply. This will enlarge the supply demand gap of rice in Kerala in the future years indicating a threat to food security bringing out a need for further increase in rice production in a sustainable way.Keywords: Kerala, Paddy cultivation, Growth trend, Overall growth, Determinants.

Land and Farm Production: Availability, Use, and Productivity of Agricultural Land in the World

Population and income growth determine increasing demand for agricultural products, especially food products; and agricultural production requires land. This paper analyses historical trends in growth of agricultural production (total and per capita, at world level and for major regions) during the half century since 1961, and the relative contributions to such growth coming from additional land and from increased land productivity, and summarises the latest studies on availability of extra suitable land. World production has been growing steadily ahead of population, causing a rising tendency in agricultural and food output per capita; such growth has been achieved with very little addition of extra land; land use for agriculture peaked around 1990 and has been stagnant or declining since; extra land contributed just about 5% of agricultural output growth from 1961 to 2011, and almost nothing in the latest decades. On the other hand, land suitable for rain-fed crop production that is not forested, not built-up, not otherwise protected, and not yet cropped, is quite abundant. However, projections of future agricultural growth, even under very conservative hypotheses, do not envisage much increase in the use of extra land. Available estimates show that agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is the dominant factor in agricultural growth, and that growth of agricultural TFP is accelerating. The world produces more than enough food relative to the needs of the world's population (though unequal access persists), and is very far from running out of land to sustain agricultural growth in the future, even assuming less progress in productivity in the coming decades.

Działalność gabinetu Leopolda Skulskiego w świetle protokołów posiedzeń Rady Ministrów (13 XII 1919 – 9 VI 1920) i rola rządu w okresie przygotowań do „wyprawy kijowskiej”

SUMMARY Activities of the cabinet of Leopold Skulski on the basis of the minutes of the Council of Ministers’ Meetings (13th December 1919 – 9th June 1920) and the role of the government in the period of preparations for the Kiev offensive The government of Leopold Skulski had been active under the pressure of war preparation but was mainly occupied by internal issues. Foreign policy was under the control of the country’s leader, Marshal J. Pilsudski. The cabinet of Leopold Skulski had little roomfor maneuver, the expenses connected with the war campaign represented 60% of the country’s total budget. Even though war orders had a very positive influence on industrial and agricultural output growth, the bulk of that output had been absorbed by the army, which automatically created problems in the open market. Similarly, the country’s foreign trade balance was significantly overloaded by the burden of military expenditure with inflation providing a source of solid reven ue income for covering war expenses. The Skulski government tried to stabilize the internal balance; on 1 April 1920 it unified the various state treasury and taxation systems and on 29 April, it unified the country’s five currencies into a single currency. On 1 June, a unified railway tariff covering the whole country was introduced. During the activity of this government, parliament had to agree an eight hour working day and a 46 hour working week for the workers, as well as providing them with a social security system.

Socioeconomic potential of multipattern rural economic systems (the case study of Belgorod oblast)

This paper is based on the results of a sociological study on multiple rural economic Systems, which was carried out in August 2011 in three districts of Belgorod oblast. The development of the oblast’s economy and agroindustrial complex in particular is a unique phenomenon. One of the highest rates of growth in agricultural output and low-rise house building were fixed here. A sociological explanation of the “Belgorod phenomenon” is considered from the conceptual and practical aspects. On the one hand, it is noted that the local development model has similar features with the ideas of a “territorial concept,” which implies the involvement of a wide range of local resources and the diversification of economic activity in combination with the development of local government. On the other hand, the study touches upon the practical mechanisms of how the “collectivist” model of rural life is controllably transformed by widely using the federal support of the agrarian sector in combination with the initiatives of regional and local authorities aimed at increasing the efficiency of using agricultural lands by creating large agroholdings and harmonizing the interests of entities of different economic systems. Factors, determining the origin of the “Belgorod miracle,” as well as specific problems and restrictions, which make it possible to repeat this experience in other regions of Russia, are described.

Productivity Growth in China's Agriculture During 1985–2010

This paper made an empirical analysis of China's agricultural growth path and influential factors using the province-level panel data of agricultural inputs and outputs during 1985–2010. The findings indicate that the increase in agricultural inputs and TFP contributed 40.6 and 55.2% to the agricultural output growth, respectively; China's agriculture had jumped out of the pattern which output growth was mainly driven by increasing input. Of the total inputs, chemical fertilizer had the most important contribution to the output growth, followed by mechanical inputs. The contribution of land and labor was negative. China's agricultural output growth belonged to the type of induced technology innovation. China's agricultural TFP growth had characteristics of fluctuations over time and unbalanced between regions, but the gap between the eastern, the middle, and the western regions has been narrowed.

Paddy Cultivation in Kerala – Trends, Determinants and Effects on Food Security

The statistical profile of Kerala agriculture since 1960, clearly established the decrease in the area under paddy cultivation in the state. Time series analysis of acreage, production and productivity data of rice in Kerala during the five decades from 1960-61 to 2009-10 revealed the performance of this crop in terms of growth of area, production and productivity. The production of major food crop, rice, reached a negative growth rates due to the declining trend of their area. The diversification of crops in terms of variation in acreage allocation has taken place due to price and non-price factors like agro-climatic conditions, labour availability, irrigation facilities, soil fertility, cost of cultivation, price levels, profitability, mechanisation, etc. The change has taken place largely in favour of non-food crops and recently it is towards rubber. The real growth of agricultural crop output has declined continuously since 1960-61 compared to monetary growth, i. e, the growth in the value of agricultural crop output. Food security, particularly rice security is the vital issue for Kerala today. The data reveals that during 1960-61 Kerala had a shortage of rice of about 40.12 percent, which increased to 83.45 percent in 2009-10. The study clearly revealed the increasing demand for rice in Kerala in the coming years compared to the existing supply. This will enlarge the supply demand gap of rice in Kerala in the future years indicating a threat to food security bringing out a need for further increase in rice production in a sustainable way.Keywords: Kerala; Paddy cultivation; growth trend; overall growth; determinants; effects.

Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective

This book grew out of an international conference in 2010 organised by USDA's Economic Research Service and the Farm Foundation. The subtitle An International Perspective indicates that it embodies a tribute and dedication to the work of Vernon Ruttan and the universally used textbook he wrote with Yujiro Hayami. After an introductory chapter by the editors, the book consists of four parts. Part I consists of five papers examining Agricultural Productivity in Developed and Transition Countries. Part II contains a further five papers examining Agricultural Productivity in Asia and Latin America. Three papers in Part III are devoted to Agricultural Productivity in Africa. In Part IV, the book concludes with two papers, one by Butzer, Mundlak and Larson on Measures of Fixed Capital in Agriculture and the book's final paper by Fuglie examining Productivity Growth and Technology Capital in the Global Economy, which uses a ‘growth accounting approach’ to examine agricultural output growth on a global scale and the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) growth to it.

Resources, Policies, and Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains low and is falling farther behind other regions of the world. Although agricultural output growth in the region has accelerated since the 1990s, this has been primarily due to resource expansion rather than to higher productivity. Yet there is evidence that agricultural productivity growth has improved in some countries. Enhanced productivity is correlated with investments in agricultural research, wider adoption of new technologies, and policy reforms that have strengthened economic incentives to farmers. Many of the technological improvements have come from the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) centers. Benefits from the CGIAR in SSA are estimated to be over $6 for each $1 invested. Returns to national agricultural research are also robust, at least for large countries. But overall investment in agricultural research has remained low, and increases in research capacity will likely be necessary to significantly accelerate agricultural growth in the region. Other constraints to agricultural productivity include government policies that reduce earnings in the farm sector, the spread of the HIV/AIDS virus, and armed conflict within and between countries.

Agricultural monopolistic competitor and the Pigovian tax

A monopolistically competitive agricultural market structure has some features of competition and some features of monopoly. Monopolistic competition has the following attributes: (a) many sellers; (b) product differentiation; and (c) free entry. In the long-run equilibrium, price equals average total cost, and the agricultural firm earns zero economic profit. The aim of this paper is to construct a relatively simple chaotic long-run monopolistic competitor’s agricultural output growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles or chaos. A key hypothesis of this work is based on the idea that the coefficient plays a crucial role in explaining local stability of the monopolistic competitor’s agricultural output, where d is the coefficient of the marginal cost function of the agricultural monopolistic competitor; b is the coefficient of the inverse demand function; a is the coefficient of average cost growth; m is the Pigovian tax rate; and e is the coefficient of the price elasticity of demand.

Agricultural monopolistic competitor and the Pigovian tax

A monopolistically competitive agricultural market structure has some features of competition and some features of monopoly. Monopolistic competition has the following attributes: (a) many sellers; (b) product differentiation; and (c) free entry. In the long-run equilibrium, price equals average total cost, and the agricultural firm earns zero economic profit. The aim of this paper is to construct a relatively simple chaotic long-run monopolistic competitor’s agricultural output growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles or chaos. A key hypothesis of this work is based on the idea that the coefficient plays a crucial role in explaining local stability of the monopolistic competitor’s agricultural output, where d is the coefficient of the marginal cost function of the agricultural monopolistic competitor; b is the coefficient of the inverse demand function; a is the coefficient of average cost growth; m is the Pigovian tax rate; and e is the coefficient of the price elasticity of demand.

China's regional agricultural productivity growth in 1985–2007: A multilateral comparison1

AbstractIn this study, we estimate total factor productivity (TFP) growth as well as multilateral TFP index for 25 contiguous China provinces over the 1985–2007 period. Agricultural output growth for each province was decomposed into TFP growth and input growth, where input growth was further disaggregated into contributions from growth of labor, capital, land, and intermediate goods. Over the study period, TFP growth contributed 2.7 percentage points to output growth annually, which was slightly higher than the input growth contribution of 2.4 percentage points per annum. On average, the annual rate of productivity growth peaked during 1996–2000, at 5.1%. It slowed in 2000–2005 to a rate of 3.2% per annum and declined in the most recent years (2005–2007) to −3.7%. Differences in productivity among regions persisted over the entire period. The tendency toward faster TFP growth in relatively well‐off coastal regions may imply a widening of regional inequality.

Change of land-use patterns by planning field shelterbelts on farming Lowlands vulnerable to water scarcity: Romania

Water scarcity, drought, and land degradation are particularly serious environmental issues in Romania (south-western Boianu Plain and Olt meadow, part of the Vallachian Plain). We propose a possible solution for decreasing the impact of climate change and preventing land degradation by planting shelterbelts. The main research methods approached were: direct observation, investigation method (interview), numerical methods of identifying the ecological potential of the land, selection of the appropriate species to be planted, and GIS mapping. The proposed solution is to create field shelterbelts after a theoretical model of configuring, composing and setting them within a village area in the Boianu Plain. The lack of specialized cadastre and funds hampers the implementation of the project. The locals and landowners in the area must be fully aware of the importance of shelterbelts. Thus, the environmental and their living conditions would be highly improved; the effects of droughts would diminish gradually and agricultural output growth. Another pending issue is to create a methodology in order to compensate the owners who disagree with the changes in land use. The area to be planted with shelterbelts is currently the agricultural land they own.

Research trends in agricultural science: A global perspective

This paper attempts to highlight quantitatively and qualitatively the growth and development of global agricultural science publication output and citations as per Web of science during 1993-2012. The objective of this study was to perform a scientometric analysis of all agricultural science research publications in the world. The parameters studied include growth of publications and citations, continent‑wise distribution of publications and citations, country‑wise distribution of publications, publication efficiency index, domain‑wise distribution of publications and citations, specialization index, variation of average impact factor in agricultural science sub‑domains, language‑wise distribution of publications, distribution of high frequency keywords, identification of highly cited publications and highly preferred journals.

‘A Last Resort and Often Not an Option at All’: Farming and Young People in Ethiopia

Development policies in Ethiopia emphasise agriculture as the pathway to industrialisation. Policies allude to the need for a new generation of young, literate and trained farmers to transform the agricultural sector and bring about the required growth in agricultural output. The success of this strategy largely depends on the willingness of the new generation of literate rural youth to take up agriculture as a potentially rewarding livelihood. This article investigates, based on fieldwork conducted in two rural kebeles of Ethiopia, whether young rural people have this willingness to take up agriculture. It examines the factors that contribute to both the desirability (and undesirability) of agriculture as a future livelihood. Findings revealed that very few young people and their parents were considering farming as a possible option for a future livelihood. For others, farming/agriculture might be a last resort.

Measuring the Performance of River Basins: Application of Total Factor Productivity Approach to Andhra Pradesh, India

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) measures the growth in output which is not accounted for by inputs. Data Envelopment Analysis which forms the basis for the computation of Malmquist TFP index is used in this paper to study the performance of different river basins in Andhra Pradesh state, India. The results indicated that average technical efficiency of all the basins is only 66%. In all the basins there was a decline in growth of agricultural output during the first two decades, viz., 1979-1980 to 1988-1989 and it had picked in the last decade (1999-2000). All the river basins have TFP change greater than 1 indicating progress in agricultural productivity. Out of the 40 river basins, 14 river basins have technical efficiency change less than 1 indicating decline in TFP growth whereas all the basins have technical changes greater than 1 implying that there is shift in production frontier over years. In general, within the TFP, technical change contributed more than technical efficiency change. Looking at the future options for increasing the agricultural output in the river basins, it is important to focus on improving the TFP growth compared to increasing the quantities of physical inputs.

Agricultural growth dynamics and decision mechanism in Chinese provinces: 1988‐2008

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to perform an investigative analysis of the distribution of agricultural growth in China and the evolution of the decision mechanism.Design/methodology/approach – The kernel density estimation method was used to investigate the distribution of agricultural growth in China using 1988‐2008 panel data of the 29 provinces on the mainland. A nonparametric income distribution approach was employed to decompose China's agricultural output growth into farmland accumulation, capital deepening, labor‐scale change, technical change, and efficiency change based on stochastic frontier function. A further investigation of the evolution of the decision mechanism for agricultural growth was then performed using counterfactual analysis.Findings – The results of this analysis indicate that: from 1996, the distribution of agricultural output per worker evolved from a unimodal into a bimodal distribution; technical change is the primary impetus to distribution shift; and capital deepeni...

Sectoral Output Responses to Trade Openness, Oil Price and Policy Shocks in Nigeria: A CVAR Approach

This study investigated the relative effectiveness of trade and policy shocks on sectoral output growth in a small open Nigerian economy. It is a country-specific, time series study verifies whether there is difference in the effect of sectoral output response to policy shocks in Nigeria. A CVAR model was specified to assess the effects of policy shocks on real aggregate and sectoral output measures. The model included oil price shock and an interactive term of trade openness as measures of supply and external shocks to the economy. The empirical results showed that there was remarkably difference in sectoral output responses to policy distortion. The effects of monetary policy shocks were positive and significant on manufacturing, service and industrial sector while fiscal policy shock was only significant and positive on agricultural output growth. The result further showed that international oil price shock and trade openness had pronounced negative effects on both sectoral and aggregate outputs. In addition, oil and trade openness’ negative effects overwhelmed the positive effects of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. The policy implication of the finding is that the effectiveness of domestic macroeconomic policy is constrained by the external shocks from both oil price and trade openness. Thus, confirming the open economic version of policy ineffectiveness proposition of the New classical macroeconomic in Nigeria

Food Security in South Asia with Special Reference to India

The paper aims to study the extent of food insecurity in South Asian Countries (SAC) with special focus on India. Agriculture is the predominant sector of economies of all SAC and poverty and hunger are the most serious problems faced by this region. Agriculture is caught in a low equilibrium trap with low productivity of staples, supply shortfalls, high prices, low returns to farmers and area diversification, which result in a threat to food security. The growth of agricultural output has slowed down in most of these countries and in other countries where growth is still reasonably high, it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain that. India has produced adequate food reflected in mounting buffer stocks, but there are millions of food insecure and undernourished people. The per capita availability of foodgrains has fallen substantially during the last decade of reforms. Besides this, decreasing per capita availability of arable land, climate change risks and natural resource degradation are compounding the challenge of meeting food demand. India needs an agricultural growth rate of 4.0 to 4.5 percent to reduce poverty and food insecurity significantly and needs to take necessary steps towards achieving food security.