Agricultural GDP Research Articles

Research on Digital Finance in Promoting the Development of the Agricultural Industry

This paper takes the sample of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 2011-2019 to study the influence of digital finance development on the development of agricultural industry. The study found that digital finance can reduce information asymmetry and farmers financing costs, thus reducing financing difficulty and expensive financing, timely loan to ensure the smooth progress of agricultural production; and farmers' agricultural activities is directly reflected in the regional agricultural GDP, meaning that the extensive development of digital finance will promote the development of agricultural industry.

Threshold Effect of Inflation on Agricultural Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries

The paper examined the inflation-agricultural growth nexus in developing countries with the aim of identifying the inflation threshold that could benefit or harm the sector. We used panel data from 1970 to 2019 and the dynamic panel threshold model which accounts for endogeneity. Aside from inflation and agriculture GDP growth, we included the foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic credit to the private sector, and urbanization as control variables. The results show that credit has an enhancing effect on agriculture while urbanization has a diminishing effect. More importantly, we established that the inflation threshold is 5.997 %. Below this threshold, the effect of inflation on agricultural growth is positive, while the effect above the threshold is negative and stronger.

An analytical study of agricultural investment in Egypt

In spite of the importance of the agricultural sector in the Egyptian economy, the interest of governments in this sector is not commensurate with its importance. The problem of the study is the weakness of the investments directed to its number in a way that does not contribute to the advancement of the sector and to achieve the desired agricultural development. This investigation aims to find out solutions in terms of studying the development. Thus, the value of investments to economic sectors, and the most important variables affecting agricultural investment were evaluated. The results indicate that the agricultural sector comes second and last in terms of the value of spot investments. Both public and private sectors had different significant trends at an annual rate of about 16.86 and 10, 17 billion pounds, respectively. The average investment directed to the agricultural sector during the study period was about 5.2%, while the agricultural GDP was about 12.98%. In conclusion, the necessity of changing the state’s strategy for distributing investments among the various commodity sectors in a manner that achieves the maximum economic efficiency. Working on an expansionary monetary policy to increase the volume of investments directed to the agricultural sector. Working to encourage agricultural investments by reducing the interest rate on agricultural loans to encourage investors to invest in agricultural projects.

Competitividad y rentabilidad de la producción de frutillas en Jalisco

Durante 2017, Jalisco fue el segundo estado con mayor aportación al PIB agrícola nacional (SIAP, 2020). El cultivo de berries es una importante actividad socioeconómica de este estado, los cuales incluyen el arándano (Vaccinium spp.), frambuesa (Rubus idaeus) y zarzamora (Rubus ulmifolius). Jalisco es el principal productor de frambuesa, el segundo de zarzamora, y el cuarto de fresa (Fragaria spp.) a nivel nacional (FIRA, 2016). Sin embargo, se percibe que a diferencia de los cultivos de fresa y zarzamora, la superficie cultivada de frambuesa incrementó en los últimos años, dicho incremento no puede ser explicado por cambios en el precio o rendimiento sino por otros factores. El objetivo del estudio fue determinar si hubo distorsiones en los mercados que pudieron haber influido en la elección de los productores de Jalisco por algún tipo de berry en particular. Se partió de la hipótesis, que de los berries, la frambuesa tuvo una mayor ventaja competitiva o comparativa. Para medir el grado de distorsión del mercado se aplicó la metodología de la matriz de análisis de políticas. Los resultados indican que los tres tipos de berries fueron rentables; sin embargo, algunas distorsiones económicas beneficiaron a la frambuesa y zarzamora, e impactaron negativamente al cultivo de fresa, además existió un gran subsidio a las ganancias del cultivo de frambuesa. Se concluye que distorsiones creadas por el mercado y el gobierno influyeron en la elección del tipo de berry a sembrar por los productores, favoreciendo la producción de frambuesa.

FOOD SECURITY MANAGEMENT IN A DYNAMIC BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Introduction. The article presents a study of the current food security management system at the macro and micro levels in a dynamic business environment. Monographic, economic-statistical and abstract-logical scientific methods of economic research are used. The purpose of this article is a comprehensive study of the food security management system at the macro and micro levels in a dynamic business environment. Results. The main actual tasks of the economic security system of the enterprise are determined. The basic principles that increase the efficiency of the food security system (system, timeliness, continuity, planning) are presented. The modern technique of the food security system is determined. Among the main trends in the development of the food security system are fluctuations in the share of agriculture in GDP, a decrease in the share of those employed in agriculture from the total number of people employed in the country's economy and an increase in the index of agricultural production. These main factors may indicate a significant increase in labor productivity in agriculture and the instability of the grain market in the world. The scientific novelty in this article is the systematization of a set of modern administrative, insurance, legal, economic, security, regime, judicial and other measures to protect against unlawful encroachment, minimize or avoid possible losses. Conclusions. The offered basic personnel have practical value in the presented scientific research; information-analytical; economic; legal; technical and technological; resource activities carried out in the process of food security management at the macro and micro levels in a dynamic business environment. Prospects for further research in this area should be directed to the integrated system of food safety diagnostics as a set of interrelated organizational and legal measures carried out by special bodies, services, units aimed at protecting the important interests of individuals, organizations, regions and the state from illegal actions by real and / or potential individuals and / or legal entities that may lead to losses from food security breaches at the macro and micro levels in a dynamic business environment. Key words: management, food security, development, strategy, diagnostic system, business environment.

Analyzing the contribution of agricultural activities supplies to the business chain and the added value of agricultural GDP in Egypt

The research aimed to measure the indicators of the evolution of the value of the gross agricultural product and the gross domestic product through a time series during the period (209/2018) through the indicators of percentages and the rate of growth of these indicators, and it became clear that there is a decline in the percentage of the contribution of agricultural GDP to the GDP at a rate (-0.18) annually, as it is estimated at 11.5% in 2017/2018, and the research aimed to measure the extent of the contribution of agricultural supplies (primary activities) to agricultural GDP, as it becomes clear that there is a decline in the percentage of what the seed supply and seedlings represent in the total primary supplies in The business chain presented for agricultural activities, where to Turn around 5.43% in 2015/2016 at a decreasing rate estimated at (-9.56) annually, and that there is a decrease in the percentage of what fertilizer supplies represent in the initial supply chain for agricultural activities with a growth rate of (-0.10) annually, despite the increase of those supplies at a rate of About 0.26 annually, and that there is a decrease in the percentage of the added value of pesticides in agricultural production with a growth rate of (-0.09) annually, despite the increase in its value at a rate of about 0.09 annually, and also that there is a decrease in the percentage of what the contribution contributes to Animal production of value added in agricultural GDP at a rate of (-14.9) annually, although it is increasing at a large rate of To 40.9 annually, and that the agricultural mechanization supplies decline by the percentage of their contribution to added value in agricultural GDP at a rate of (-0.04) annually, although it is increasing at an estimated rate of 0.09 annually, and the research aimed to measure the extent of the contribution of agricultural supplies (external activities) In the agricultural GDP, marketing services (wholesale, retail and transportation trade margins) for crops and agricultural and manufactured goods in 2014/2015 in Egypt, from which it is clear that the total marketing services for all crops and agricultural and manufactured goods is estimated at about 172 billion pounds in 2014/2015, representing about 63% Of the value of the agricultural output of Hawa I have 275 billion pounds. The research also aimed to estimate the number of those working in agriculture that contribute to various agricultural operations, as the total number of workers in agriculture during the period (2000-2014) reached 4972 thousand workers, at a rate of 28.90% of the total number of workers in the Republic in 2000 and 6693 thousand workers, at a rate of 27,54 % Of the total number of workers in the Republic in 2014 with a growth rate of 0.35 and despite this increase, it is less than the rate of growth in non-workers in agriculture, which is 0.44. According to results, our recommendations are: 1) Increasing the contribution through the agricultural units deployed in the governorates in the chain of agricultural business and primary supplies (such as seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, animal production and agricultural mechanization) which contributes to the gross domestic product and thus an added value in the gross domestic product. 2) Attention to expanding secondary activities, such as (guidance, manufacturing and marketing) through the agricultural units located in the governorates at the level of the Republic, which creates an added value for the agricultural gross product and reflects positively on the gross domestic product. 3) Contributing in raising the human and skill capabilities of workers in the agricultural sector and providing incentives and encouragement, whether by training, expertise or technical support, to contribute to creating added value that contributes to agricultural supplies and thus to agricultural and gross domestic product.

A seca e seus desdobramentos: reflexões a partir da realidade da Microrregião de Pau dos Ferros

A região Nordeste sempre foi vista como a região da seca, do subdesenvolvimento, do homem desamparado e de diversos outros estereótipos que consagraram a caracterização de sua configuração humana, econômica e espacial pelas outras regiões do país. A ausência de água é um aspecto marcante, que além de flagelar o nordestino, é utilizada como aporte político para muitos representantes governamentais adotarem discursos de “solução à seca” com a finalidade de adquirirem apoio popular. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar a perda de importância das atividades rurais na microrregião de Pau dos Ferros/RN e discutir as medidas emergenciais adotadas para amenizar a escassez de água com ênfase neste município. Para tanto, foi realizado levantamento de dados com foco nas variáveis População e Produto Interno Bruto Agropecuário, extraídos das bases de dados do IBGE; coletados dados na Secretaria de Desenvolvimento Rural de Pau dos Ferros/RN; e realizadas buscas acerca da questão hídrica deste município em portais online. Diante disso, o que se observou foi a relativa perda de participação do PIB agropecuário na composição do PIB Municipal, redução da população rural nessa microrregião e a implantação de ações paliativas de combate à seca.

Abundance and Diversity of Frugivorous Fruit Flies in Kandara, Murang’a County, Kenya

Fruits and vegetables are important source of livelihood to farmers and major horticulture sub sector with high contribution to agricultural GDP in Kenya. This study was conducted to determine diversity and abundance of frugivorous fruit flies in Kandara sub county, Murang’a County in 2018, at a place where first area of low pest population was created in Kenya for Bactrocera dorsalis. Three sets of pheromone traps (Methyl-Eugenol, Cuelure and Trimedlure) were set in six trap stations within farmers’ orchards in four agro-ecological zones (LH1 (Lower Highland Zone), UM1 (Upper Mid-land Zone), UM2, and UM3). The trap catch data was collected fortnightly and data analyzed. Six fruit flies species namely; Bactrocera dorsalis, Ceratitis cosyra, Ceratitis capitata, Zeugodacus cucurbitae, Dacus bivittatus and Perilampsis sp were identified. Bactrocera dorsalis population was significantly (P<.001) different across the four agro-ecologies with lowest densities at LH1 and highest at UM3. Likewise, C. capitata recorded significant (P=0.042) difference densities across the agro-ecological zones, but no significant (P=0.386) difference was recorded for C. cosyra across the agro-ecological zones. Further, there was significant (P=0.012) difference in the number of Perilampsis sp across the agro-ecologies with the highest number recorded in UM1. Both Z. cucurbitae (P=0.061) and D. bivittatus (P=0.056) had low abundance across the agro-ecologies. The peak infestation period differed across the various fruit fly species, whereby B. dorsalis peaked in May, C. capitata in February and C. cosyra in January. The study shows that abundance for the fruit flies is probably related to their preferred hostplant and the weather patterns. We recommend continuous monitoring and intensifying trapping activities during peak periods in order to control the pest and protect fruits from damage. Farmers should be trained on the use of pheromone traps to reduce over-reliance on pesticides. Key words: Agro-ecologies, Bactrocera dorsalis, Ceratitis sp, fruit fly density, Pheromone

Spatial distribution of GDP based on integrated NPS-VIIRS nighttime light and MODIS EVI data: a case study of Turkey

Satellite-derived nighttime light data have been increasingly used as a proxy measure for investigating economic activity. However, there are few studies focusing on the spatialised mapping of the GDP at pixel level and further analysis of the economic differences in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors for the different regions using the VIIRS-NPP data. This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature through developing a pixel-level agricultural and non-agricultural GDP map for Turkey in 2015 by combining the VIIRS-NPP nighttime imagery, Terra MODIS-Enhanced Vegetation Index, and land use/cover data from CORINE. The inclusion of vegetation indices and land cover data would significantly improve the estimates of sectorial GDP for Turkey where agriculture is one of the dominating sectors in the Country. GDP density map offers a significant database for both researchers and policy makers in the analysis of regional economic dynamics that will assist in formulating sustainable regional growth strategies.

Future climate impacts on global agricultural yields over the 21st century

Analyses of the future impacts of changing crop yields on agricultural production, prices, food security, and GDP growth using Integrated Assessment models require country-level yield shocks due to changing weather conditions, for a wide range of crops and warming scenarios. We characterize impacts of different climate futures on crop yields for individual countries and years. We use historical crop yield and weather data to empirically estimate annual crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation, constructing reduced-form statistical models that are then coupled with earth system model outputs for the same variables to project future yields. Our main result is a panel of annual shocks to yields of 12 crops (cassava, cotton, maize, potatoes, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugar beet, sugarcane, sunflower, and winter and spring wheat) for 58–136 countries, depending on the crop, through 2099, under moderate and vigorous warming scenarios. We find that global yield impacts by century’s end (2086–2095) are − 2%, − 19%, − 14%, and − 1%, without the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE), for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat, respectively, with similar global values with CFE. However, the global and decadal averages mask regional and year-to-year differences that may have large economic consequences, which IAMs could more fully address by representing agricultural yield impacts through the parameters supplied by our study.

БІЗНЕС-АНАЛІТИКА СУЧАСНОГО СТАНУ СІЛЬСЬКОГО ГОСПОДАРСТВА В ХЕРСОНСЬКІЙ ОБЛАСТІ

Стаття присвячена аналітичному оцінюванню сучасного стану сільського господарства в Херсонській області зокрема та України загалом на основі статистичної інформації, визначенню позитивних та негативних тенденцій розвитку, а також виявленню існуючих або потенційних проблем розвитку галузі сільського господарства. Проаналізовано рентабельність виробництва продукції сільського господарства в сільськогосподарських підприємствах України протягом періоду 2000-2018 рр. Досліджено динаміку урожайності сільськогосподарських культур Херсонщини за 2010-2019 рр. Проведено порівняння урожайності основних видів сільськогосподарських культур у цілому по Україні та в Херсонській області в 2019 р. Побудовано просторову діаграму валового збору соняшника в Херсонській області за рахунок зміни посівної площі та урожайності. За результатами дослідження виконано прогноз урожайності до 2024 р. на прикладі соняшника шляхом визначення нижчої та верхньої довірчих границь. Визначено тенденції, виявлено проблеми розвитку галузі сільського господарства. Окреслено основні напрямки подальшого розвитку сільськогосподарської галузі.

A case‐based analysis of the competitiveness of the North Indian sugar industry

The Indian sugar industry contributes 10% to the country's agricultural GDP, and is a significant part of India's manufacturing base. Although the industry has been the focus of much attention over the years, there remains a lack of case‐based studies of its competitiveness. Using data from in‐depth interviews with executives in five North Indian sugar companies, we address this gap by applying Porter's theories on competitive advantage, in combination with a technique known as analytic hierarchical process. This allows us to measure and evaluate the industry's competitiveness, and provides a detailed view of the factors that influence it. While this study focuses on the North Indian sugar industry, the techniques used could easily be adapted to the assessment of competitiveness in other sectors to guide practitioners' efforts to improve the competitive performance of their company.

An Economic Study of the State's Role, Subsidy and Scientific Research in the Development of the Egyptian Agricultural Sector

Disaggregation of public agricultural expenditure into its different types of spending (agricultural infrastructure, agricultural research, and farmer's subsidies in the form of input subsidy and output price subsidy) becomes important to cater to the tradeoffs between them and to help policymakers and decision taker in drawing accurate agriculture policy. As such, it is important to understand and analyze the impact of public expenditure on agricultural growth. It is important to depict to what extent the level of governance influence the performances of agricultural growth. All variables were found nonstationary (with unit roots) at a level. After first differencing, the augmented Dickey-Fuller test indicated stationarity in the variables. There was the existence of two co-integration equations in the Johansen test. VECM gives results for both the short-run period and the long-run period. Meanwhile, all variables were insignificant in the short run, maybe that’s happened because; expenditure categories did not have an immediate effect on agricultural GDP, it needs a time lag to appear its influence. Expenditure in agricultural research was in a positive relationshiptogrowthin AGDP but by a low amount. The reason may be that the extension agency in Egypt is weak, that is one reason. The second reason could be; tenure fragmentation, smallholder rural farmers are poor and they cannot afford or afraid of adopting new technologies. Private investment was also a positive sign, with a small amount. However, agricultural lands are allocated to investors, reallocated by them to different sectors like luxury housing. The relationship between the net trade balance of the economy and long-run agricultural growth was insignificant. Despite the government tendency towards diminishing farmer subsidy, there was a positive relationship between farmers' subsidy programs and the growth of AGDP. Governmental investment in infrastructure was in a positive relationship with AGDP growth.

Agriculture Sector Credit and Output Relationship in Nepal

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to find out the condition of priority of commercial banks to provide loans to the agricultural sector and to find the relationship and impact of agricultural loans to the agricultural GDP of Nepal.
 Objectives: This study aims to compare the condition of loan disbursements in agricultural and manufacturing sectors. It further aims to compare loan percent with growth and contribution to the GDP of the agricultural and industrial sectors and tries to show the impact of agricultural loans to the agricultural GDP of Nepal.
 Methods: It was based on a descriptive and analytical research design. Statistical tools standard deviation, correlation, regression, etc. are used and Excel, and EViews software are used for the statistical calculations. Statistical calculations and graphs are simultaneously used to show and compare the condition of variables.
 Results: Commercial banks give higher priority to the manufacturing sector for loans than the agricultural sector. The Johansen Co-integration test indicates no long-run relationship between loans of commercial banks and agricultural output in Nepal. However, the least-squares method, it indicates that a positive causal relationship between agricultural loans and agricultural growth.
 Implications: The loans of commercial banks directly stimulate the growth of agriculture but the amount of growth is less noticeable. Thus, it is concluded that the commercial bank's loan alone cannot affect and control the growth of the agricultural sector of the Nepalese economy therefore the government should increase its expenditure on the agricultural sector.

Does credit boost agricultural performance? Evidence from Vietnam

PurposeThis study investigates the short-run and long-run impacts of agricultural credit on Vietnam's agricultural GDP over the period 2004:Q4–2016:Q4, with the incorporation of agricultural labor, public investment and rainfall as important determinants of agricultural GDP.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies the indicator saturation (IS) break tests and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test with structural breaks to examine the credit–agricultural performance nexus. The causal relationships among variables are explored through the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test.FindingsThe results indicate that agricultural credit positively influences agricultural GDP in both the short-run and long-run. A unidirectional causal relationship running from credit to agricultural GDP is confirmed. The results also discover the positive and significant effects of labor and rainfall on agricultural GDP in the long-run.Practical implicationsThe results imply that the government should focus on expanding agricultural credit as well as enhancing the efficiency of agricultural credit. Furthermore, formal credit institutions should be encouraged to work closely with farmers and agricultural enterprises to offer flexible lending periods and amounts to meet the real situation of agricultural production.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine the credit–agricultural performance relationship at the macro-level in Vietnam. Based on the empirical results, the study provides crucial implications for policymakers to optimize the effectiveness of agricultural credit and enhance nationwide agricultural performance.

Impact of forest concessions on local jobs in central amazon

In the humid tropics, forest concessions have become the main mechanism of access to public forest resources. In Brazil, forest concessions began in 2006 with the creation of local jobs as one of its assumptions. The impact of the forest policy on employment was evaluated in the first forest concessions in the Brazilian Amazon. We used Synthetic Control method to evaluate the impact of the intervention (forest concession in 2010) for the period 2002–2015. The results revealed a positive effect on local forest jobs after a four-year time lapse from the beginning of forest operations. The municipality with the first Brazilian concessions benefited from an increase in forest jobs by concentrating the timber processing from local and neighboring forest concessions. According to our analyses, a 10% increase in municipal agricultural GDP results in a 3.53% increase in forest jobs; an increase of 10 employees in the previous year generates 6 more employees in the forestry sector in the following year; however, a 10% increase in sector's wages leads to a drop of 6.45 jobs in the forest sector. We concluded that for a forest-based economy to contribute to local development in Amazon municipalities, forest concessions need to combine jobs in the forest and industry. This would require broader and more integrated national and state development policies than those under the responsibilities of the environmental agencies that today manage the concessions.

Effect of Holistic Adoption of Dairy Farming Technologies on Households Farm Income of Small and Marginal Farmers: A Study of Telangana

Dairy farming provides an excellent opportunity for self-employment of unemployed youth. It is also an important source of income generation for small and marginal farmers and agricultural labourers. Since agriculture is mostly seasonal, there is a possibility of finding employment throughout the year for many persons through dairy farming and landless labourers. Dairy farming in India is more of subsidiary activity represented by plurality of small holder dairy farmers and entrepreneurs. The value of milk alone is well above Rs.35 thousand crores and livestock contributes nearly 5% to National GDP, accounting for more than 25% of agricultural GDP (Planning Commission, 2010). Cluster sampling technique is adopted for identification of three clusters, which are mutually homogeneous but internally heterogeneous. Three clusters included three mandals of Khammam district i.e., Mudigonda, Kusumanchi, Nelakondapalli are selected for the study. The income from dairy farming is surpassing the income from crop production enterprises and the risk is less compared to crop. The dairy animals are not improved breeds, so improved breeds and cross-bred suitable dairy units will enhance the income from dairy. Even though the farmers have both livestock and dairy enterprises, there is a lack of integration to the extent of 50% of the sampled farmers. Such awareness has to be created. There is capital crunch created faced by marginal and small farmers, credit support and technical support would enhance the household income. Need for Government role in improving the supply of inputs and services to dairy farmers/beneficiaries at their doorsteps with minimum cost by promoting milk co-operatives which maintain the milk chilling and processing centres and play a remunerative price within a stipulated time. Developing viable farmer’s cooperatives societies/federations like: milk producers’ cooperative societies at village and district levels, federations, boards and corporations is needed.

Impact of agricultural land use and economic growth on nitrous oxide emissions: Evidence from developed and developing countries

The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) establishes a hypothetical link between economic growth and environmental degradation and has been tested empirically using various measures of pollution, including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. However, few studies have focused on N2O emissions, despite their projected lifetime of 114 years and 300 times greater warming potential than CO2. Employing panel data for the period 1980 to 2012, this study uses the EKC to investigate N2O emissions, including those resulting from agriculture, economic growth, agricultural land use, and exports. Two groups of data are extracted from the panel data: the first group contains the top 15 countries, ranked by N2O emissions, measured in thousand metric tons of CO2, while the second group contains the top 18 countries, ranked by share of agriculture in GDP. A pooled mean group approach developed by Pesaran et al. (1999) is used to determine whether long-run relationships exist between the variables after determined by the Hausman test. The results show that N2O emissions and economic growth are co-integrated in both panels, providing evidence in favour of the EKC. In addition, agricultural land use has a positive and significant effect on N2O emissions. That is, if countries wish to reduce their N2O emissions or agricultural N2O emissions, they should optimize or reduce the use of agricultural land.

Climate Change Responses of Cocoa Farmers in Ghana

Background: Undoubtedly, vulnerability and adaptation of the agricultural sector to the adverse impacts of climate change are among the most crucial concerns of many developing countries where agriculture is largely rain-fed. In Ghana, the cocoa sector is the mainstay of the agricultural sector, contributing about 60% of agricultural GDP. The cacao tree is susceptible to the vagaries of climate, a fact which manifests in outbreak of pests and diseases and their pattern, loss of pods and early ripening of young pods, among others. Cocoa farmers have over the years used short-term (coping) strategies and long-term (adaptation) strategies to offset the effects of climate change on their production.
 Methods: A field survey of 444 cocoa farmers in Ghana was conducted, using a guided interview schedule.
 Results: Farmers’ coping strategies included those on crop, soil fertility and soil water management practices. Adaptation strategies included behavioural adjustments (spraying, fertilizer application, weed control, pruning) as well as institutional and technological adjustments (change in variety and increased extension services).
 Conclusion: The study showed that farmers who perceived that the climate had changed and had some effect on their production usually employed adaptation measures. Differences in farmers in terms of personal managerial and entrepreneurial capacities and family circumstances influence their responses to climate change. However, one major challenge is to separate the adaptations in response to climate change from adaptations in response to other stimuli, such as market price or government policy changes that farmers face in the real world. Assessing adaptation strategies also provides the information needed by cocoa farmers to increase their capacity to moderate potential damages and to take advantage of opportunities, if any, to survive in a changing climate.

Econometric Analysis of Export Led Growth in the Nigerian Economy

This study investigates the role of export in the economic growth process of Nigeria with using the three sample periods of annual time series data, which are 1961 to 2013, 1970 to 2013 and 1981 to 2013 respectively. The variables for this period of 1961 to 2013 are GDP growth and exports/GDP ratio, the variables for this period of 1970 to 2013 are GDP growth, exports/GDP ratio, Imports/GDP ratio and the real interest rate and the variables for the last period of data are total exports, manufacturing GDP, agricultural GDP, manufacturing exports and agricultural exports respectively. The VAR Granger causality results for the first sample period show no causal relationship between exports and the GDP growth which illustrates that the two variables are independent of each other. The VAR results for the period of 1970 to 2013 show no causality between the variables under consideration. Following the results of the Granger causality test for this last period of 1981 to 2013, the results show no evidence of causality existing among the variables, which do not show evidence for the support for the export-led growth in the Nigerian economy. This study concluded that exports do not influence and cannot sustain economic growth in the Nigerian economy. The study recommended that an attempt should be made towards executing an economic policy that will strengthen the economic growth of Nigeria.