Agricultural Change Research Articles

The lens of social learning theory: an imitation behaviour to adapting climate change in agriculture

The lens of social learning theory: an imitation behaviour to adapting climate change in agriculture

Rapid monitoring of the spatial distribution of soil organic matter using unmanned aerial vehicle imaging spectroscopy

ABSTRACT An existing technique for quickly obtaining the spatial distribution data of soil organic matter (SOM) involves combining an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform and imaging spectroscopy technology; this technique is suitable for precision agricultural management and real-time monitoring. In this study, the average spectral data were first extracted via circular regions of interest (ROIs) of different radii and modelled using the measured SOM to determine the optimal extraction range for the spectral data. Partial least-squares regression (PLSR) and support vector machine (SVM) models were constructed based on the raw spectra, standard normal transform spectra, multiple scattering-corrected spectra, and first-order differential spectra. The difference index, ratio index, and normalized index were calculated and analysed for their correlation with SOM content, and the spectral indices were screened to establish the SOM prediction model. Finally, the accuracy of the model was evaluated, and we selected the optimal model to map the spatial distribution of SOM. The results of our study show that 1) the radius of the ROI significantly affects the model’s accuracy; 2) the accuracy of the nonlinear SVM model is much higher than that of the linear PLSR model; 3) the prediction model based on spectral indices is better than full-band model. This study can serve as a model for the application of UAV imaging spectroscopy technology to field-scale SOM estimations and rapid monitoring, as well as provide technical support for precision agriculture and climate change studies.

Rice husk biochar for carbon sequestration, soil fertility and plant health improvement: A review

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is considered one of the ozone layer gases that contribute to climate change. As the area under agricultural use expands, the level of CO2 from soil as an agricultural by-product increases in the atmosphere. Burning rice husks in open air, decomposing plant materials among other activities release CO2 directly to the atmosphere. Rice husks as a by-product of rice production in Kenya has both the potential to be a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) and production of biochar. Production and deposition of rice husk biochar (RHB) into soil is thought to be one of the viable options for permanent carbon storage with related benefits to soil fertility. This review seeks to consolidate information from various studies that highlight the innovative way of using RHB in combating climate change, improving soil fertility, plant health and crop yields. Studies that have demonstrated beneficial use of RHB were evaluated to prepare this review. When RHB is used as a soil amendment, it has the ability to increase soil carbon storage, mitigate 10% of the current anthropogenic carbon emissions, improve pH and raise Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC), increase available plant nutrients, enhance inherent plant immunity, increase crop yields and improve water quality by increasing retention of nutrients and agrochemicals for plant utilization. A review of the benefits of RHB use in agriculture and climate change mitigation will enhance its adoption. The review further emphasizes the usefulness of pyrolysis in turning organic waste into bioenergy, compost and other beneficial products while protecting the environment. Key Words: Carbon dioxide, climate change, global warming, innovation, ozone layer, temperature.

Hydrological changes in a plain basin in central Argentina following expansion of rainfed agriculture and climate change

AbstractThe characterization of long‐term streamflow in regions undergoing climatic change and agricultural expansion is relevant for achieving sustainable development goals and for assessing the vulnerability of water‐dependent populations and agricultural activities. The objective of this work was to characterize the temporal patterns of water yield in the plain basin of the Carcarañá River (33,063 km2), located in central Argentina and to analyse its relationship with a fast expansion of rainfed cultivation and climate change. The streamflow data for the period 1980–2020 were analysed in conjunction with climatic data (rainfall, reference evapotranspiration), satellite data (NDVI) and cropping statistics (sown area of summer crops) data. The annual water yield averaged ~10% of the rainfall and showed a clear upward trend throughout the study period, both in absolute terms and relative to rainfall (i.e., runoff coefficient), which was not explained by rainfall or reference evapotranspiration temporal patterns. Conversely, we found that the trend in water yield was positively associated with the agricultural area (p < 0.05), which more than doubled during the study period (from 29% to 66%). Likewise, the mean NDVI of the basin, a proxy for primary productivity and vegetation transpiration, has decreased steadily over the last 20 years (p < 0.05). The separation between base flow and quick flow suggested that both flows increased during the analysed period (p < 0.05), though the latter would have been more relevant in explaining the trend observed in total flow. Taken together, our results suggest that agricultural expansion, rather than climate change, is the dominant factor explaining the hydrological changes observed in the study basin. Understanding the key role of land use in shaping the hydrology of a landscape is critical to developing policies and practices for more efficient and sustainable use of environmental resources.

Amazon Wildfires and Respiratory Health: Impacts during the Forest Fire Season from 2009 to 2019.

The Brazilian Amazon, a vital tropical region, faces escalating threats from human activities, agriculture, and climate change. This study aims to assess the relationship between forest fire occurrences, meteorological factors, and hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases in the Legal Amazon region from 2009 to 2019. Employing simultaneous equation models with official data, we examined the association between deforestation-induced fires and respiratory health issues. Over the studied period, the Legal Amazon region recorded a staggering 1,438,322 wildfires, with 1,218,606 (85%) occurring during August-December, known as the forest fire season. During the forest fire season, a substantial portion (566,707) of the total 1,532,228 hospital admissions for respiratory diseases were recorded in individuals aged 0-14 years and 60 years and above. A model consisting of two sets of simultaneous equations was constructed. This model illustrates the seasonal fluctuations in meteorological conditions driving human activities associated with increased forest fires. It also represents how air quality variations impact the occurrence of respiratory diseases during forest fires. This modeling approach unveiled that drier conditions, elevated temperatures, and reduced precipitation exacerbate fire incidents, impacting hospital admissions for respiratory diseases at a rate as high as 22 hospital admissions per 1000 forest fire events during the forest fire season in the Legal Amazon, 2009-2019. This research highlights the urgent need for environmental and health policies to mitigate the effects of Amazon rainforest wildfires, stressing the interplay of deforestation, climate change, and human-induced fires on respiratory health.

Metricizing policy texts: Comprehensive dataset on China’s Agri-policy intensity spanning 1982–2023

Due to the lack of direct assessment metrics, existing studies on the intensity of agricultural policies often utilize indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of agriculture or the quantity of agricultural policies as measures. Optimizing methods for analyzing the intensity of agricultural policies will significantly impact parameter selection in agricultural policy research and the evaluation of policy effectiveness. In this study, we constructed a Chinese Agricultural Policy Corpus using agricultural policies released by various governmental agencies at the national level in China from 1982 to April 2023. We quantified the values of agricultural domain terms in the corpus and evaluated the intensity of each agricultural policy document. The validation results of this study indicate a strong correlation between the intensity of agricultural policies and agricultural GDP. The trend in agricultural GDP changes lags behind policy intensity by 2.5 years (at a 95% confidence level), thus validating the rationality of our constructed corpus, agricultural policy scoring dataset, and methodology.

Exploring climate change adaptation strategies of crop and livestock farmers in urban Ghana

This study investigates the climate change adaptation strategies employed by urban crop and livestock farmers in Ghana. With the increasing recognition of climate change threats to agricultural productivity and food security, it is crucial to understand urban farmers’ adaptation strategies. Through a mixed-methods approach—surveys of 191 urban farming households using a questionnaire and interviews of 13 key informants using an interview guide, data were collected from farmers in urban Ghana. The quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics from the Statistical Package for Social Sciences and presented in tables. The qualitative data were analysed manually based on themes and content and presented in narratives. The results indicated a significant relationship between urban farmers’ educational status and gender and their sources of climate change adaptation information. Urban farmers’ climate change adaptation strategies include planting more improved and less indigenous crop varieties and rearing of more exotic and less local breeds of animals. Again, to buffer animal production against climatic diseases, urban farmers treat their animals through vaccination, giving animals pills, disinfecting pens, and spraying animals’ bodies with chemicals. Access to agricultural extension services is the main challenge in urban farmers’ climate change adaptation. The study underscores the importance of enhancing farmers’ resilience through targeted interventions, including capacity-building initiatives, access to climate information and financial resources, and the integration of climate-smart agricultural practices into urban planning and policy frameworks. In addressing these challenges and promoting adaptive strategies, urban crop and livestock farmers in Ghana can enhance their resilience to climate change and contribute to sustainable urban agriculture and food security. This study, therefore, contributes to the urban agriculture and climate change literature by drawing attention to how crop and animal farmers in the urban neighbourhood adapt to climatic stressors.

Managing organic resources in agriculture: future challenges from a scientific perspective

Recycling of organic resources into agriculture has the potential to greatly increase nutrient use efficiency and improve soil carbon balance, but improper management can have adverse effects on the environment. Agriculture therefore faces large challenges to increase yields while decreasing these emissions to the environment. In this paper, we review (i) the availability and composition of organic resources, (ii) their agronomic value and risk of emissions, (iii) potential measures to reduce their emissions, and (iv) future challenges to support farmers and policy makers. The total amount of organic resource applied to soil amounted on average 41 kg nitrogen per ha agricultural land, 9 kg phosphorus per ha, and 456 kg carbon per ha in EU-27 + UK in 2017. Solid pig and cattle manures and cattle slurry are the most used organic resources. The availability of new organic resources from food processing, sewage sludge, municipal bio-wastes, and upcoming manure treatment techniques as fertilizer or soil conditioner is expected to strongly increase over the coming decade. Insight is needed into the composition of organic resources, the plant-availability of nutrients, the degradability of organic matter and the presence of contaminants. Measurement techniques become available to characterize soils, manures, crops, and emissions to the environment. However, the interpretation, and integration of data, and recommendations to farmers and policymakers using large amounts of data is expected to become more and more challenging. Many measures are available to improve nutrient and carbon management and to reduce emissions, including proper application, technological measures and structural changes in agriculture. For many measures, there is a risk of trade-offs that could lead to pollution swapping at different scales. We should focus on finding synergies between measures and no-regret management choices to develop effective mitigation strategies. The main future challenge for managing organic resources in agriculture is the development of an integrated nutrient management approach, including (i) the characterization of organic resources, their agronomic value and their environmental risks, (ii) knowledge of potential synergies and trade-offs between management measures, and (iii) implementation of this knowledge into decision support tools, models and legislation to support farmers and policy makers.

Detection of Urban Growth in Taiz City, Yemen, Between 1981 and 2022 by Using Google Earth™ and Geographical Information System Data

Rapid urbanization brought serious socio-economic and environmental problems in many cities around the world, particularly in developing countries like Yemen. Urban "sprawl", a synonym of rapid and unplanned urban growth, is considered an obstacle for sustainable development, which causes serious long- and short-term problems, such as extreme infrastructure expenses, economic inefficiency, environmental destruction, and social instability. This is the case of Taiz City, the third largest city in Yemen, which is facing a huge challenge to manage the spatial extension of its built-up area at the expense of the reduction of natural resources and environment. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Taiz City, focusing on urban sprawl and agricultural land-use change during 1981–2022. The data used are high resolution geospatial data, which are the topographic map for 1981 and Google Earth (GE) images for 2003, 2012, and 2022. The methodology adopted was manual digitizing using Geographic Information System (GIS) software to extract urban land use features from the images of the different dates. Four land-use maps were produced and used for calculation the urban sprawl and land-use changes. The urban expansion rate and patterns were also identified in three phases: 1981–2003, 2003–2012, and 2012–2022. The results show that the built-up area increased six times from 6.2 km2 in 1981 to 34 km2 in 2022, while the agriculture area decreased by 77% from 18 km2 in 1981 to 4.2 km2 in 2022. The urban sprawl in Taiz covered about 75% of its municipal area and extended to the agricultural and rural areas. The sprawl index (USI) is measured to be 5.4%, indicating a high degree of sprawl in Taiz. There is no open space left for future development, and the water resources are at risk of population and depletion. The study demonstrated that informal and haphazard expansion must be controlled, a development strategy should be prepared, so that sustainable urban growth can be achieved. The results of this study could be used as a decision support tool for urban management activities. The vector layers produced by this study could provide the required input data for the future urban modeling of the city.

Assessing the trends and drivers of agricultural land use change in the Ramsar County, northern Iran

Agricultural land use change (ALUC) is a primary driver of global environmental change, with implications for food security and the environment. Ramsar County in the north of Iran has continuously undergone many changes due to the tourism characteristics of the region. The present study demonstrates the ALUC trends from 1992 to 2022 and the main drivers affecting ALUC in Ramsar County, northern Iran, using household surveys and Landsat data. Six land use classifications have been made for the region by image processing. Images have been categorized using the maximum likelihood classifier. Likewise, utilizing a questionnaire from 200 randomly selected farmers, in-person interviews were conducted. The kappa coefficient and overall accuracy for 1992, and 2022 were 85.91%, 88.86%, and 88.38%, 90.83%, respectively. It was observed that from 1992 to 2022, orchard (12%), open land (4.8%), and built-up areas (160.5%), increased respectively. In contrast, forest (−12.1%), water (−82.6%), and agri-land (−14.8%), declined respectively. Additionally, the analysis of the household survey indicates the high cost of production, the lack of a suitable market and price fluctuations of products, the aging of farmers, the increase in the population of non-native residents, weak policies to support farmers, lack of coordination between relevant institutions, the beautiful nature and tourism of the region, and climate changes and drought in other parts of the country were the most important drivers affecting ALUC in the region. Overall, this study can provide significant insights to decision-makers at the beginning of strategic planning to control the ALUC in the region.

Vegetation and Evapotranspiration Analyses on Climate Maps

This study focuses on the investigation of evapotranspiration (ET) processes under the climatic and geographical characteristics of Turkey. Evapotranspiration refers to the process by which plants transfer water vapour to the atmosphere and is an important part of the water cycle. Vegetation cover, climatic conditions and topographic structures in different regions of Turkey are among the main factors affecting evapotranspiration. In this study, the seasonal and annual variations of evapotranspiration in different regions of Turkey are discussed and the importance of this process in water resources management, agriculture, ecosystems and climate change is emphasised. This research focuses on conducting an evapotranspiration analysis in Turkey by employing imagery data from NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System Version 2 (GLDAS-2), MODIS, TerraClimate, SMAP Level-4, and Penman-Monteith-Leuning Evapotranspiration V2 (PML_V2) sources. Evapotranspiration, a pivotal process in the hydrological cycle, significantly impacts water resource management and ecosystem dynamics. This study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of evapotranspiration dynamics across diverse regions within Turkey. For Turkey, SSM data between 2016-2022 and LST data between 2000-2022 were obtained from MODIS images. In the study, regression analyses were performed with evapotranspiration values and SSM and LST data. The best result was a medium level relationship (R 0.56) between evapotranspiration generated from SMAP Level-4 data and LST. A high correlation (R 0.87) was observed with SSM. Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) precipitation data between 1981 and 2023 and Surface pressure (PS) data between 1981 and 2023 were obtained from MERRA image. Regression analyses were performed between evapotranspiration data and PS and Precipitation values. A moderate relationship (R 0.37) was observed between evapotranspiration and PS generated from MOD16A2 V105 data. A moderate relationship (R 0.55) was observed between evapotranspiration and precipitation generated from TerraClimate data. This study aims to contribute to the development of strategies to effectively manage water resources and improve agricultural sustainability by analysing evapotranspiration in various regions of Turkey. Understanding evapotranspiration processes under the climatic diversity and geographical structure of Turkey will be an important step in planning and managing the future use of water resources.

Landed estates and the place of public houses: Agricultural and industrial change in the English East Midlands, c.1860–1930

This article uses the records the Manvers and Portland estates in Nottinghamshire and north-east Derbyshire to consider the provision and management of licensed premises between the 1860s and 1930s. Using archival materials of land agents and solicitors, it examines the changing place of public houses in a range of local communities affected by agricultural decline and industrial change in the region. These include: small agricultural villages on the Manvers estate, where pubs were let with farmland; and, on the Portland estate, urbanising settlements and new colliery villages constructed in rural locations. The pub is presented as a place to see how agents balanced older social relations and responsibilities with the broader economic and social geographies remaking the region. The sale of estate pubs offers important insights into the process by which regional breweries assembled their own pub holdings, the legacy of which shaped the geography of drink well into the twentieth century.

Selected Driver Variables for the Simulation of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change for the Republic of Djibouti: A Study from Semi-Arid Region

Abstract. This study aims to integrate driver variables with a land use change model (LCM) to explore their impact on the natural environment within the context of land-use changes in the Republic of Djibouti, considering possible Business-as-usual scenarios. Secondary data from 1990 and 2012 on land use land cover (LULC) were analyzed, with a 2022 map generated by adopting the same method of secondary data used (random forest classification in Google Earth Engine (GEE)) for validation. Eight key driver variables were utilized to model plausible future land cover (2035) for Djibouti. Statistical outputs and change maps from the LCM were compared to gauge historical change estimates and simulated scenarios. Analysis from 1990 to 2022 highlights significant land use and cover changes spurred by urbanization, environmental factors, and economic development. Barren land and bushland dominated, while built-up areas and water bodies expanded notably. Urbanization, agriculture, and climate change contributed to vegetation degradation, with declines in mangroves and increases in built-up areas. Water bodies also expanded during this period. Projections from the 2035 LULC map anticipate further urban expansion, underscoring the need for sustainable land management practices. In conclusion, comprehensive land-use planning, interdisciplinary approaches, and stakeholder engagement are deemed critical for addressing Djibouti's socio-economic and environmental challenges and steering towards a sustainable future. These simulated results offer valuable insights for regional governments to frame strategic policies and assess management actions for resource utilization amidst urbanization and population growth trends.

An assessment of the water footprint of the population and agricultural crops in the natura 2000 site ROSCI0434 siretul mijlociu, Romania

The designation of a Natura 2000 site ROSCI0434 Siretul Mijlociu for the protection of habitats and species, whose development is closely tied to the aquatic environment, signifies that the management of water resources, and implicitly, the water footprint, has contributed to maintaining a balanced and favorable status for biodiversity conservation. Given that the Natura 2000 site was declared based on older studies, and the Management Plan for the protected natural area was not yet developed, we are now conducting an assessment of the impact of the water footprint in the current climatic conditions. This includes considering other predominant types of agricultural crops and changes in food habits. This evaluation aims to understand the relationship between the water footprint and the conservation status of species and habitats in light of these new circumstances.The blue and grey water components of the water footprint are the ones that directly affect the natural protected area out of the three components of the water footprint: green, blue, and grey water. The ecological impact of water use in ROSCI0434 Siretul Mijlociu is extensive, affecting both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Pollutants can harm habitats and species, while agricultural water usage alters habitats and disrupts hydrological patterns, impacting breeding and foraging grounds. Additionally, changes in water quantity and quality diminish ecosystem services like water purification and habitat provision, affecting biodiversity and human well-being.

Palaeoclimatic shifts in the Central Ganga Basin during the Middle- to Late Holocene: Exploring the 4.2 ka arid event and its implications in northern India

The Central Ganga Basin is one of the most densely populated regions of India. It is agriculturally diverse and contributes much to the Indian economy. The region has housed numerous ancient and mediaeval empires. This study presents a continuous record of the paleomonsoon from the Chandrika Devi lake, Lucknow district of Uttar Pradesh, India which is linked with paleo vegetational shifts over the last ~6000 years (5871–75 cal yr BP). The chronology of the lake core is based on three accelerated mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon and two Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dates. The multiproxy data (grain size, major and trace element ratio, total organic carbon (TOC wt%), carbon isotopes (δ13Corg‰) and pollen), suggest that the lake was initially a part of the Gomti river that began to transform into a lake at ~5000 cal yr BP with weakening of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) in the Central Ganga Basin. The lake formation was completed at ~4100 cal yr BP under the influence of the 4.2 ka arid event. This phase marks the beginning of human presence as well as agricultural activities in the lake region with the appearance of Cerealia pollen and other agricultural taxa. The agricultural activity surrounding the lake catchment peaked at ~3000 cal yr BP. The lake gradually shrank and became a marshy lowland at ~75 cal yr BP. Our study is significant because it is the first comprehensive multiproxy study from the Lucknow region in the Central Ganga Basin on paleomonsoonal variability and its relationship to human activity, agricultural practices during the Late-Holocene with a focus on the 4.2 Ka arid event. Also, pollen record suggests that the changes in agriculture and human activity began just after 4.2 ka arid event in the study area.

303 What’s next for animal welfare from a legal perspective?

Abstract California’s “Prop 12” indicated a significant change for animal agriculture generally, but for legally mandated animal welfare standards more specifically. This presentation will outline the general requirements of the law and aspects of the United States Supreme Court opinion finding it to be constitutional. It will also discuss the longer term and more widespread effects of the Supreme Court opinion on potential legislation in the United States. Finally, it will preview another Supreme Court case, heard this year and not yet decided, that may have an impact on the regulation of animal welfare.

Breaking out of conventions: How scenario planners can increase their reflexivity regarding societal imaginaries

Futures imagined in scenario processes reflect both stakeholder perspectives and broader societal imaginaries: collectively-held, institutionally-stabilized visions of the future. The presence of imaginaries has mostly remained implicit in studies of scenario planning, especially in development contexts. We argue that scenario planning will benefit from reflexivity regarding imaginaries. Here, reflexivity refers to an awareness regarding different perspectives, assumptions, values, and—oft-hidden—politics at play. We developed a framework of relevant imaginaries and assessed how and to what extent these are expressed in scenario narratives, through analyzing seven scenario sets focused on agriculture, food security and climate change in the Global South. Our results show that neoliberal and sustainable development imaginaries are dominant in these scenarios. Imaginaries from the Global South are scarcely represented—arguably because of that, we observe few regional perspectives on potential challenges in these scenario sets. We conclude that the scenario sets offer effective critique on neoliberal mechanisms and global development dynamics, but do not provide significant room for transformational alternatives from the Global South. We argue that opening up explorative scenario planning to more pluralistic conceptions of the future can greatly enhance its reflexivity, and a representative mix of imaginaries allows for scenario planning that leads to more transformational policies.

Unveiling the frontiers: Historical expansion and modern implications of agricultural land use in Denmark

This study offers a first-of-its-kind investigation into the spatial and temporal transformation of agricultural land use and expansion in crops and livestock at national scale during the middle and latter half of the 19th century.We introduce an innovative methodological framework that combines historical data with advanced spatial analysis to trace and map the evolution of frontiers of agricultural land use changes, illustrating Denmark's agricultural evolution towards the modern era.Our research uncovers critical shifts in cropland, grazing land, and livestock density offering unprecedented insights into the mechanisms driving agricultural expansion and intensification. The mechanisms driving this expansion and their potential impact on contemporary agroecological challenges linked to land use intensification are explored. Our results point to a significant broadening and shifting of land use frontiers offering a historical perspective on agricultural land use. This sets the stage for promoting the analysis of drivers of change and gaining insights into how landscape development could be steered into an environmentally and societally more desirable and sustainable direction tackling present-day agroecological challenges.

Importance of Dark Septate Endophytes in Agriculture in the Face of Climate Change.

Climate change is a notable challenge for agriculture as it affects crop productivity and yield. Increases in droughts, salinity, and soil degradation are some of the major consequences of climate change. The use of microorganisms has emerged as an alternative to mitigate the effects of climate change. Among these microorganisms, dark septate endophytes (DSEs) have garnered increasing attention in recent years. Dark septate endophytes have shown a capacity for mitigating and reducing the harmful effects of climate change in agriculture, such as salinity, drought, and the reduced nutrient availability in the soil. Various studies show that their association with plants helps to reduce the harmful effects of abiotic stresses and increases the nutrient availability, enabling the plants to thrive under adverse conditions. In this study, the effect of DSEs and the underlying mechanisms that help plants to develop a higher tolerance to climate change were reviewed.

Relation between the Pandemic COVID-19 and the outbreak of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever in Iraq, 2023

Objective: This review examines the link between the COVID-19 pandemic and the outbreak of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) in Iraq. Methods: We reviewed literature and data to explore potential associations between the two diseases. Results: No direct causative link between COVID-19 and increased CCHF cases in Iraq was found. However, changes in healthcare,agriculture, and human-animal interactions during the pandemic may have indirectly affected CCHF transmission. Conclusion: This review highlights the need for further research to confirm any connections between the COVID-19 pandemic and CCHFoutbreaks in Iraq. Understanding these links is crucial for effective public health responses to emerging infectious diseases.