Agricultural Agencies Research Articles

Exploring the Challenges and Constraints Encountered by Mushroom Growers in Uttarakhand: A Comprehensive Study

Mushroom cultivation has emerged as a promising and sustainable agricultural enterprise in many regions offering economic opportunities and nutritional benefits. Uttarakhand, a hilly state in Northern Himalayas of India, is known for its ecological diversity and rich biodiversity making it an ideal location for mushroom cultivation. This paper attempts to identify the challenges and constraints faced by mushroom growers in Uttarakhand, thereby shedding light on the unique circumstances that can influence the success of this industry in the region. The current investigation was conducted in four purposively chosen districts of Uttarakhand state renowned for their substantial mushroom production. Two blocks were purposefully selected from each district, resulting in a total of eight blocks chosen deliberately due to their high concentration of mushroom growers. Subsequently, two villages were randomly selected from each block, culminating in a total of sixteen villages and 280 respondents for the study. Employing the Garrett ranking technique to assess and rank the ten statements (constraints) gleaned through extensive literature review coupled with consultations with subject matter experts. The study findings revealed that "pest and disease problem" was the most common constraint (Rank-1) faced by the mushroom growers highlighting its profound impact on mushroom cultivation. Following closely, "market accessibility" (Rank II) and "non-availability/delay of inputs" (Rank III) emerged as crucial factors that shape the mushroom cultivation landscape. On the other end of the spectrum, the constraint of "lack of transport" (Rank X) was surprisingly identified as a comparatively lesser impediment. These rankings offer strategic insights into the essential aspects that necessitate targeted interventions and resource allocation within the realm of mushroom cultivation. The study reiterates the multifaceted advantages of mushroom cultivation while acknowledging the challenges that hinder its profitable and sustainable progression. The findings will be of immense significance to policymakers, agricultural development agencies and mushroom growers in the region as they provide valuable insights into the opportunities and constraints in promoting the sustainable mushroom cultivation in Uttarakhand.

The Effect of Integrated Entrepreneurship Development on the Performance of MSMEs in DKI Jakarta during the Pandemic Period

The Jakpreneur Program is a Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) development program organized by the Jakarta Government, aimed at fostering entrepreneurship in MSMEs and facilitating MSME players. However, the Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on Jakarta, with the highest number of Covid cases, resulting in increased unemployment and a rise in self-employed individuals. The objective of this study is to investigate the performance differences, measured by profit, between MSMEs that participate and do not participate in the Jakpreneur program, which includes training, marketing, and licensing, by considering internal factors. This study uses data from food sector MSMEs provided by the Jakarta Provincial Office of Food Security, Marine and Agriculture Agency in the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. The results of the regression data analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) show that in 2020 and 2021, the marketing and licensing programs have a significant positive influence on MSME profits, while in 2022, the training program has a significant positive influence on MSME profits. On internal factors, the number of workers, male gender and access to credit have a significant positive influence on MSME profits in all years.

IMPACTS OF COVID-19 LOCKDOWN RESTRICTION ON RURAL HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOOD ACTIVITIES OF ARABLE CROP FARMERS IN YENAGOA AGRICULTURAL ZONE, BAYELSA STATE, NIGERIA

With economic recoveries slowing, COVID-19 uncertainties and disruptions continuing, and worsening fiscal capacity, the outlook for food and nutrition security for many low- and middle-income farmers and their livelihood is of significant concern. The study analyzed the effect of COVID-19 lockdown restriction on rural household food security and livelihood activities of arable crop farmers in Yenagoa Local Government Area of Bayelsa State, Nigeria. Data were collected through well-structured questionnaire from 100 arable crop farmers. Data were analyzed using simple descriptive and inferential statistical tools. The result showed that fever (x=3.8), cough (x=3.1), shortness of breath (x=3.5), headache (x=3.5), sore throat ( x=3.3) and congestion or running nose (=3.2) were perceived COVID-19 symptoms. Transportation (tricycle and taxi driving) (x=3.7), arable crop farming (x=3.4), handicraft (x=2.5), oil palm farming (x=3.4), fish farming (x=3.2), vegetable farming (x=3.4) and snail farming (x=3.1) were livelihood activities affected by COVID-19 movement restriction. Food availability (x=2.9), feeding efficiency/sufficiency (x=2.6), economic access to food (=2.5) and food quality (=2.5) were food status of the sample arable crop farmers. The regression result showed that the coefficient of COVID-19 movement restriction (2.531) was positive and statistically significant at 1%. The study concluded that COVID-19 movement restriction significantly affected food security status and livelihood activities of arable crop farmers negatively. Hence, the study recommended effort should be made by government and other agricultural agencies to establish food storage, preservation and processing facilities so that during movement restrictions farmers can have access to food and to avoid malnutrition for the aged farmers...

Earmarked Funding and the Performance of International Organizations: Evidence from Food and Agricultural Development Agencies

Abstract How do funding structures affect the performance of international organizations (IOs)? Considering the rapid growth of earmarked funding over the past decade, the need to address this question has become a matter of urgency. To answer this question, I divide IO performance into outcome performance (i.e., achieving results that are relevant and sustainable) and process performance (i.e., having systems, rules, and practices that enable IOs to achieve self-defined goals effectively, efficiently, and responsively). Drawing on the principal−agent framework and studies of organizational behavior, I derive expectations about how earmarked funding can affect those performance dimensions. To empirically examine these expectations, I rely on qualitative case studies of three major IOs in food and agricultural development—Food and Agricultural Organization, International Fund for Agricultural Development, and World Food Program—using semi-structured interviews with IO staff and evaluation reports from multiple sources. I find that earmarked funding undermines performance, albeit not uniformly across performance areas and organizational contexts. I highlight the need for future research that considers how funding structures, institutional structures, and organizational behavior interact to affect organizational performance.

Smart Farming Revolution: Farmer’s Perception and Adoption of Smart IoT Technologies for Crop Health Monitoring and Yield Prediction in Jizan, Saudi Arabia

This study examines the perception and adoption of IoT technologies for crop monitoring among farmers in Jizan, Saudi Arabia. The research investigates the relationship between farmers’ awareness of IoT technologies, their perception of benefits, and willingness to adopt them. It also explores the influence of factors like access to information, training, and the perception of government support on adoption behavior. A structured questionnaire was distributed to 550 farmers, with a response rate of 90.91%. The analysis reveals a significant association between farmers’ awareness of IoT technologies and their perception of benefits. The perceived benefits show a moderate positive relationship with farmers’ willingness to adopt IoT technologies. Access to information, training, and the perception of government support also have a positive influence on adoption. The findings highlight the importance of increasing farmers’ awareness and providing access to information and training on IoT technologies. The study emphasizes the need for government support in facilitating adoption. Recommendations include exploring additional factors, conducting longitudinal studies, and developing tailored training programs. Collaboration among stakeholders and financial support mechanisms is also crucial. This study contributes to the understanding of IoT technology adoption in agriculture, providing insights for policymakers, agricultural extension agencies, and technology providers. By embracing IoT technologies and implementing the recommended actions, farmers in Jizan can enhance their crop monitoring practices, improve productivity, and promote sustainable farming.

Rice and its Multiple Identities: A Discursive Study of Paddy Cultivation in Nepal and Himalaya

This paper encounters the problem of the identity of rice and paddy farmers in Nepal and in the Himalayan region. It examines discursive practices in three different regimes of knowledge that constitute rice and paddy cultivation in Nepal and the Himalayas; mythological, socio-cultural, and Techno-political. For the analysis, it has brought descriptions of materials from the comprehensive compendium on ‘Rice Sciences and Technology in Nepal’, (2017). The compendium is the major source of materials or ‘corpus of the statement’ in relation to each of the domains of knowledge in paddy cultivation for analysis. The analysis exposes the meanings and identities of rice and paddy farmers and farmers’ positions in each of the regimes. This paper argues that the contemporary discourse of rice/paddy cultivation is dominated by the techno-political regime of knowledge which has specific implications for the production of the identity of rice and paddy farmers. Furthermore, this mediation reproduces rice as a commodity to sell in the open market and paddy farmers as the passive recipients of the information and skills from the modern agriculture agencies like the state, scientists, media, and agro-companies. It utilizes Foucauldian Discourse Analysis (FDA) method while approaching the different domains of knowledge. The argument is based on the ‘non-essentialist’ theory within the anthropological framework of political ecology as proposed by a senior post-modern anthropologist Arturo Escobar.

The effect of using quality rice seed varieties on rice cultivation activities

Farmers’ use of subpar rice seed has a substantial impact on the production of rice harvest since it may result in the spread of disease and pests, the incapacity of crops to adapt to climate change, poor soil quality, and bad plant structure. In this context, the situation mentioned earlier has a detrimental impact on farmers' financial earnings as well as an escalation in expenses related to input procurement and crop management, thereby influencing the overall welfare of farmers. Therefore, this study was carried out to identify the selection of rice seed varieties within five seasons of cultivation among farmers and the effect of using quality rice seed varieties on rice cultivation activities. The study employed the descriptive quantitative research approach, and the survey instruments were administered to a sample of 95 rice farmers residing in the AFO F-IV Sungai Limau MADA area, Yan, Kedah. The results of the study found that most respondents used the MR297 rice seed variety for each planting season due to their confidence in the agronomic characteristics of the variety. The findings also indicate the impact of using quality varieties recommended by agricultural agencies. These include increased production, crop tolerance to weather factors, higher resilience, and resistance to disease attacks. This situation has real impacts, including increased farmers' income, lower costs of purchasing production inputs, and farmers’ well-being. This has several consequences for technological advancements in creating high-quality rice seed varieties and their usage by farmers, which can boost rice output, the economy, and the well-being of the farmers, in addition to assuring the security of the nation's rice supplies.

FACTORS INFLUENCING INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE SHARING AMONG RURAL FARMERS IN SOUTH-SOUTH NIGERIA

The study assessed factors influencing sharing of indigenous knowledge among rural farmers in South-South Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 360 farmers. Data collection was through structured questionnaire and analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics such as mean and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression. The result reveals that sharing between two or more farmers ( = 3.9), parents/guardian/friends ( = 3.8), participation ( = 3.8), observation ( = 3.7), farmer’s groups ( = 3.7), demonstration ( = 3.4), social group gathering ( = 3.4), village groups/age grades ( = 3.4), village meetings ( = 3.4) among others were the major ways farmers share knowledge. The study also revealed that farm income ( = 4.05), access to information ( = 4.01), land tenure system ( = 3.91), literacy level ( = 3.88), awareness of knowledge sharing need ( = 3.83), access to credit ( = 3.79), farming experience ( = 3.72), age ( = 3.46), gender ( = 3.40) and marital status ( = 3.26) were perceived factors that influenced indigenous knowledge sharing. The Ordinary Least Square regression analysis revealed that participation (2.978***), social network (3.096***), infrastructure (2.423**) and farm income (2.105**) significantly influenced the sharing at 1% and 5% significance levels respectively. From the findings, it was concluded that indigenous knowledge sharing was influenced by participation, social network, and infrastructure and farm income. The study recommended State Ministries of Agriculture and extension agencies to assist the rural farmers by organizing demonstrations and coordinating farmer groups which would enable them improve the sharing of their indigenous knowledge

Rural Women Farmers’ Participation In Maize Value Chain And Socio-Economic Empowerment In South-West Nigeria

In recent times, there has been increased participation of women in agricultural value chain, but their empowerment status is poor. Thus, evidence-based data revealing the socio-economic status of rural women participating in maize value chain is important to further strengthen women’s participation in the agricultural value chain sector. The study aimed at examining participation in maize value chain and socio-economic empowerment among women in South-west Nigeria. A three-stage sampling procedure was employed in the selection of respondents for the study. The first stage involved proportionate random sampling of three states in South-west, Nigeria. Second stage involved the generation of a sample frame from the various associations of rural women farmers in MVC in the Agricultural Development Programme zones. Last stage, 20% of the total of rural women farmers involved in MVC was selected to give a sample size of 539 respondents. Data were collected through interviewer-administered questionnaire and analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The findings from the study were that the participation mean score of the respondents in marketing and processing were high (71.2%, 73.1%) respectively, the mean participation score in MVC was 67%; respondents’ percentage mean score based on socio-economic empowerment status after participation in MVC was high (60%). Major constraints to participation in MVC activities were high cost of transportation to market (x̄=1.27) ranked 1st and inadequacy of extension service delivery (x̄=1.22) ranked 2nd; and participation in MVC activities had positive and significant relationship with the socio-economic empowerment status of the respondents (r=0.380; p=0.000). The study concluded that the level of rural women farmers’ participation in MVC activities was high and impacted their socio-economic status positively. The study recommended that agricultural extension agency should focus on empowering the rural women by providing extension services needed for market linkage and bulk transportation of produce to target markets.

Strategi Pengembangan Sektor Pertanian Di Desa Tlontoraja, Kabupaten Pamekasan

Tlontoraja Village has the biggest potential in the agricultural sector, this is strengthened by the large number of people working in the agricultural sector, namely 5.076 residents. However, the agricultural sector in the village is still not able to provide a good enough contribution because of the various problems it faces, both originating from the internal and external conditions of the village. This study used eight informants consisting of three lecturers from the Islamic University of Madura, staff of agricultural institutions, heads of agricultural extension officers, heads of villages, heads of Gapoktan, and heads of farmer groups. The data obtained were analyzed using the IFAS matrix, EFAS, and the SWOT matrix. The results showed that there were nine supporting factors and fife inhibiting factors in the agricultural development of Tlontoraja Village. In addition, the internal factor that has the highest score is Tlontoraja Village having a BUMDes institution and an agricultural extension agency as a companion in agricultural sector activities, and for external factors, the highest score is that there is a national development plan in Tlontoraja Village. The strategies that are prioritized and can be implemented are the use of modern technology in cooperation activities, there is a performance collaboration between farmer group leaders and educational institutions, there is broad marketing access inside and outside the village, and farmers and BUMDes institutions can collaborate to seek more efficient and profitable crop marketing network.

Role Of Integrated Crop Management Field Schools In Increasing Rice Production Results

Field School - Integrated Crop Management (SL-PTT) is a form of school where the entire teaching and learning process is carried out in the field, which is carried out on the land of PTT participating farmers in an effort to increase national rice production. This SL-PTT guide is the result of discussions with the Directorate General of Food Crops and the Agricultural HR Development Agency. So it is very interesting to examine (a) the role of integrated crop management field schools in increasing rice production. Respondents for this study were selected purposively, namely 1 extension worker and 4 heads of farmer groups. The research results show 1. The influence of adult education methods (andragogy) on farmers in SLPTT activities, namely the learning process in SL-PTT starts with activities which then provide personal experiences, express these experiences, analyze problems that occur, and conclude the results of activities. Every learner is encouraged to be able to observe reality, express experiences and ideas, analyze facts, make decisions, and carry out activities together. The role of SLPTT is to increase knowledge and skills in recognizing potential, preparing farming plans, overcoming problems, making decisions, and applying technology that is appropriate to local resource conditions in a synergistic and environmentally sound manner, so that farming becomes efficient, highly productive and sustainable.ACT
 Keywords: Role, Integrated Crop Management Field School, Rice Production Results

Teknologi Tepat Guna Akuaponik Pada Lahan Sempit oleh Kelompok 02 KKN-T UPN Veteran Jawa Timur di Desa Banjaragung, Bareng

Along with the development of regions in Indonesia, followed by population growth, there will be an increase in development and settlements that affect the environment to become quite dense. This resulted in limited land and water so that cultivation activities were also limited. Banjaragung Village is a village located in Bareng District, Jombang Regency. The majority of the livelihoods of the residents of Banjaragung Village are farmers. The aquaponics technique is suitable for application in Banjaragung Village because it includes simple agricultural technology in the form of cultivating fish and plants in one bucket (Budikdamber). The aim of implementing the aquaponics program is to take advantage of narrow land by making minders so that the harvest is expected to generate creative economic opportunities in society. There are two implementation methods, namely the holding of the Budikdamber Appropriate Technology socialization which was attended by PKK mothers and the BPP (Agricultural Extension Agency) Bareng and direct demonstrations. The results obtained are an increase in public knowledge about Budikdamber, can meet family food needs, and improve the community's economy.
 

THE ROLE OF ISLAMIC SPIRITUALITY IN INDUSTRIAL TRAINING FOR AGRICULTURAL STUDENTS

The spiritual aspect is an essential element that needs to be emphasised among today's university students. It can shape their behaviour, actions, and decisions. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to identify the extent to which the programs conducted by the Faculty of Plantation and Agrotechnology can shape the spiritual values of students before they undergo industrial training outside the campus through placement in agricultural and plantation agencies throughout Malaysia. The Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Sabah Branch, Kota Kinabalu campus, was selected as the case study organisation for this qualitative study. 13 students participating in the program conducted by the Faculty of Plantation and Agrotechnology who were interviewed using a semi-structured format. Thematic data analysis was used to analyse the collected data. Overall, the findings of the qualitative study show that the program or activity carried out plays a role in increasing the spiritual value of students in terms of mujahadah al-nafs and fostering the character of al-ihsan.

The role of stakeholders in the sustainability of the Simantri program in Tabanan

The current development of the agricultural sector requires the involvement of stakeholders from various circles. The role of stakeholders is adjusted to the duties and responsibilities they have so that the results achieved can run optimally. This study aims to identify the typology of actors based on the strengths and relationships between actors and the attitudes of actors towards the sustainability goals of the Simantri program. Data collection methods in this study were interviews, questionnaires, and Focus Group Discussions (FGD). Data analysis used the Mactor method (Matrix of Alliances and Conflicts Tactics, Objectives, and Recommendations). The results showed that the Bali Provincial Agriculture Office and Tabanan Regency Agriculture Office were the dominant actors. Agricultural Extension Agency (BPP), Farmer's Cooperatives, Financial Institutions, PKK, and fertilizer collectors are relay actors, and Hotels/Restaurants are dominated, actors. Most of the stakeholders converge in supporting the strategic goals to be achieved. This finding becomes the basis for developing a pattern of collaboration between all stakeholders that is needed for the sustainability of the Simantri program.

The Use of Amharic Language in Anywaa Nationality Zone, Gambella People’s National Regional State and Its Socio-Economic Effects on the Anywaa Nationality, Ethiopia

This study's major goal is to evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of the anywaa Nationality of the Abobo and Gog district in the Gambella People's National Regional State's anywaa Nationality Zone's use of the Amharic language. Both quantitative and qualitative methodologies have been employed to complete the study's stated objectives. In order to achieve the aforementioned objective, the study used qualitative data collection techniques like interviews, observation, and focus group discussions to collect primary data from a number of informants in the Anywaa Nationality zone of the Abob and Gog district. There were 129 informants in the study overall. The secondary data source was assembled from published and unpublished sources, including books, journals, and other research initiatives. This study also employed non-probability and probability sampling techniques to reach its objectives. Simple random procedures and purposive sample strategies were utilized in probability sampling techniques. The findings of this study demonstrate that no new employment opportunities for the local populace were created, and Amharic was not employed as an official working language. Amharic was neither spoken nor written in the majority of the communities in the study area. The study also points out the serious drawbacks of using Amharic as the only working language for local development. One of the primary barriers preventing individuals from visiting the study region is the majority of agriculture agencies' poor Amharic proficiency. As a result, it posed a sizable barrier to community growth and had an impact on the socioeconomic status of the studied region both directly and indirectly.

Agriculture Insurance and Farmers Performance in Rwanda, A Case of National Agriculture Insurance Project

The general objective of the study was to investigate the effect of agriculture insurance on farmers’ performance in Rwanda, a case of National Agriculture Insurance Project (NAIP). Specifically, the study examined farm production of insured famers before and after joining NAIP, assess farm income of insured famers before and after joining NAIP and evaluate savings level of insured famers before and after joining NAIP. The researcher conducted both descriptive and correlational studies. The study population was 241 farmers as cooperatives representative in NAIP. A sample size of 150 respondents was determined by the help of Solvin formula. The study used simple random sampling in selecting the respondents in the study. The study applied the following tools of data collection; questionnaire and documentary technique. The researcher adopted the descriptive and correlation analysis computed by Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 21. The study utilized multiple linear regression analysis to make inferences for the survey. After collecting data, the following results were obtained. Farm production correlated with farmers performance at positive strong correlation of r=0.935. Further, on farm income of insured famers before and after joining NAIP, the results showed that 18% and 29.3% showed very great extent and great extent respectively that monthly income has been increased,34.7% revealed that moderate extent. On the other hand, the person coefficient correlation showed that there is strongly positive correlation of 89.6% between farm income and farmers performance. The study concluded that farm production, income and savings level increased extremely after farmers joined NAIP. The study recommended that Agriculture agencies should encourage youths to invest in agriculture industry as the way of increasing agriculture productivity. Keywords: Agriculture Insurance, Performance, Productivity

The motivations, challenges and needs of small- and medium-scale beginning farmers in the midwestern United States

Beginning farmers are increasingly recognized as important agricultural actors in the United States. Efforts to help interested individuals enter agriculture have increased; however, there is still a substantial knowledge gap regarding beginning farmers’ characteristics, motivations to farm, challenges, and information and resource needs, particularly among those who operate small or medium-sized farms. In this research, we collected and analyzed survey data in Indiana to gain a better understanding of small- and medium-scale beginning farmers in the midwestern United States. We found that small- and medium-scale beginning farmers were motivated by their desire for a farming lifestyle and to support local food and agroecological farming systems on a landscape dominated by commodity crops. They relied substantially on off-farm income and faced related challenges including limited access to labor and difficulty balancing their on-farm and off-farm responsibilities. Finding effective marketing strategies also challenged this group of farmers, as they were not well-integrated into existing agricultural programs, and many had limited interactions with agricultural agencies and organizations. Instead, the majority of small- and medium-scale beginning farmers relied heavily on their own internet research and informal interactions with other farmers to learn and obtain help for their farms. Together, our results contribute to a better understanding of small- and medium-scale beginning farmers’ characteristics, motivations, and farming practices, as well as the challenges they face and the support they need to address these challenges. Because beginning farmers often differ from their more established counterparts who operate larger farms, the results of this research can be used to inform tailored agricultural programs and technical assistance that address small- and medium-scale beginning farmers’ specific needs and challenges in order to increase their likelihood of success to not only start but also sustain a small- or medium-scale farm over time.

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EDAS METHOD IN SELECTING INVESTMENT IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Capital is one of the most important things in any business activity that will be carried out. Capital includes capital before planting, planting period until harvest time arrives and post-harvest. Because of the large number of farmers in Kuningan district, the Kuningan district Food Security and Agriculture Agency needs investors to help the farmers. In this study designing and building applications for selecting investments in the agricultural sector using a decision support system with the EDAS method. EDAS is a multi-criteria decision-making method based on the AS score. The data used is data from direct interviews with farmers to determine criteria, sub criteria and alternatives. The criteria include land area, capital, harvest period, yields, and selling price. The alternatives include the names of the farmers, namely Tati, Niryo, Odah, Umin, and Tarwa, as well as types of farming, such as chili, shallots, rice, corn, and peanuts. From the results of the overall calculation of this study, it shows that the EDAS method produces the best choice for Tati farming with the type of chili farming. This research produces a web-based application that can be used by farmers and investors and furthermore, it can be developed into an Android or mobile-based application. The goal is to make it easier for investors to find and choose the best farms to invest in.

The Effect of Discipline and Work Environment on Employee Performance and Job Satisfaction as Mediation Variable

This study aims to investigate the relationship between discipline and work environment on employee performance, as well as the mediating function that job satisfaction has in both relationships. Purposive sampling was used in the sampling technique, and provided 139 employees of the Purworejo Regency Food Security and Agriculture Agency as respondents. A questionnaire with multiple choice answers on a Likert scale is used to collect data. Using the Smart PLS for analyzing the data, the result shown that job satisfaction has been moderated the direct relationship between discipline and the workplace environment and employee performance. These findings suggest that if the work environment of the Purworejo Regency Food Security and Agriculture Service employees improves, such as through the provision of facilities that are sufficiently complete and adequate, the environment is clean, the atmosphere of the workspace is calm, the arrangement of rooms is in accordance with needs, and relationships with coworkers are amicable, then some will increase employee satisfaction at work, and job satisfaction will affect employee. Future research is suggested to include additional factors including organizational culture, employee motivation, leadership, loyalty, or commitment.

Seasonal prediction of crop yields in Ethiopia using an analog approach

As Ethiopia's population grows, crop yield predictions are becoming increasingly important for national food security. Accurate, easy-to-implement, and computationally efficient forecast approaches are desirable for broad applications in emerging regimes like Ethiopia. In this study, we develop and test an analog approach for pre-season crop yield prediction conditioned on antecedent precipitation and planting time soil moisture content indices to guide cultivation decision making. Historical planting time soil moisture at four selected sites were simulated using the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrological model and classified into five levels. Likewise, a historical crop yield database for each of the five classes of planting time soil moisture were constructed using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) agricultural model. Adopting maize as a representative crop, analog models based on different indexes or predictors with various lead times were constructed and used to conduct hindcasts during 1979–2014 and real-time forecast in 2018 and 2019. Both the hindcast and real-time forecasts were then evaluated against yield observations. To verify the applicability at locations with various environments, the analog models were then applied in different Agroecological Zones. The analog models were shown to be accurate and easy to implement, which may incentivize adoption by local extension agents and regional agricultural agencies to inform farmers’ crop choices.