Age Period Research Articles

#1155 Outcomes after kidney transplantation in anti-glomerular basement membrane disease

Abstract Background and Aims Anti-glomerular basement membrane antibody disease-associated glomerulonephritis (anti-GBM-GN) can lead to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), requiring replacement therapy with dialysis or kidney transplant (KT). Few studies evaluated the outcome of these patients after KT. Our aim was to describe, in comparison with a control group, the occurrence of the following events: delayed graft function recovery, graft survival, relapse, acute rejection, overall survival; and to study the risk factors associated with these events. Method This was a retrospective, multicenter (6 French centers), observational study including patients who received a KT between 2005 and 2023 for ESKD secondary to anti-GBM-GN. Each vasculitis case receiving a KT was matched with 2 controls, matched on gender, center, recipient age (±5 years) and transplant period (±1 year). Event-free survival and the associated risk factors were analyzed. Results 126 patients were included, including 42 with anti-GBM-GN and 84 control patients. The median post-KT follow-up for vasculitis patients was 95 months. There was no difference in the occurrence of DGF between the groups (24 vs 18%, p = 0.5). There was no difference in graft survival when comparing both groups (78% vs 82% at 10 years, p = 0.48) (Fig. 1A). Only one patient experienced a relapse after KT (being anti-GBM negative at the time of transplantation). There was no difference in the incidence of acute rejection between the groups (p = 0.82). There was no difference in overall survival when comparing both groups (83% vs 89% at 10 years, p = 0.76) (Fig. 1B). Conclusion Kidney transplantation is an interesting option for patients with anti-GBM-GN: outcomes are similar to those of a matched population with similar occurrence of acute rejection, graft loss or death. Moreover, relapse rate is low. Comparison with a matched anti-GBM-GN population remaining on dialysis would be of interest to go further.

Effect of Solution Temperature and Natural Aging Period on Microstructure and Properties of Al-4Cu-2Mg-0.7Mn Sheets

Effect of Solution Temperature and Natural Aging Period on Microstructure and Properties of Al-4Cu-2Mg-0.7Mn Sheets

Phenanthrene metabolism in Panicum miliaceum: anatomical adaptations, degradation pathway, and computational analysis of a dioxygenase enzyme.

Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PAHs) are persistent organic pollutants of environmental concern due to their potential impacts on food chain, with plants being particularly vulnerable. While plants can uptake, transport, and transform PAHs, the precise mechanisms underlying their localization and degradation are not fully understood. Here, a cultivation experiment conducted with Panicum miliaceum exposed different concentrations of phenanthrene (PHE). Intermediate PHE degradation compounds were identified via GC-MS analysis, leading to the proposal of a phytodegradation pathway featuring three significant benzene ring cleavage steps. Our results showed that P. miliaceum exhibited the ability to effectively degrade high levels of PHE, resulting in the production of various intermediate products through several chemical changes. Examination of the localization and anatomical characteristics revealed structural alterations linked to PHE stress, with an observed enhancement in PHE accumulation density in both roots and shoots as treatment levels increased. Following a 2-week aging period, a decrease in the amount of PHE accumulation was observed, along with a change in its localization. Bioinformatics analysis of the P. miliaceum 2-oxoglutarate-dependent dioxygenase (2-ODD) DAO-like protein revealed a 299 amino acid structure with two highly conserved domains, namely 2OG-FeII_Oxy and DIOX_N. Molecular docking analysis aligned with experimental results, strongly affirming the potential link and direct action of 2-ODD DAO-like protein with PHE. Our study highlights P. miliaceum capacity for PAHs degradation and elucidates the mechanisms behind enhanced degradation efficiency. By integrating experimental evidence with bioinformatics analysis, we offer valuable insights into the potential applications of plant-based remediation strategies for PAHs-contaminated environments.

Perioral dermatitis: nuances of the clinical picture and therapy in different age periods

Perioral dermatitis is a common dermatosis that predominantly affects women aged 25–40 but is also observed in children and adolescents. The distinct localization of this condition in the perioral, perinasal, and periocular zones contributes to apparent psycho-emotional distress, markedly impairing patients’ quality of life. Perturbations in the skin biotope, local immune dysregulation, and topical glucocorticosteroid use are among the primary etiological factors. Effective management involves addressing causative factors, discontinuation of topical steroids, adopting gentle skincare practices, and employing localized treatments like metronidazole, pimcrolimus, and activated zinc pyrithione. Maintenance therapy may be warranted in select cases. The purpose of this work is to review the current literature on the problem and to present original clinical observations concerning the utilization of activated zinc pyrithione in treating patients with this condition. The article presents the results of the use of topical activated zinc pyrithione in patients spanning various age groups and exhibiting diverse degrees of perioral dermatitis severity. Significant clinical evidence substantiates the remarkable efficacy and safety profile of activated zinc pyrithione in managing perioral dermatitis, both as a standalone therapeutic modality and as an integral component of combination therapy. The use of activated zinc pyrithione in the treatment of perioral dermatitis emerges as an efficacious and secure approach for treating mild to moderate forms of the condition.

Assessment of secular trends of three major gynecologic cancers burden and attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: an age period cohort analysis

BackgroundThis study aims to assess the long-term trends in the burden of three major gynecologic cancers(GCs) stratified by social-demographic status across the world from 1990 to 2019. To assess the trends of risk factor attributed mortality, and to examine the specific effects of age, period, cohort behind them in different regions.MethodsWe extracted data on the mortality, disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), and age-standardized rates(ASRs) of cervical cancer(CC), uterine cancer(UC), and ovarian cancer(OC) related to risks from 1990 to 2019, as GCs burden measures. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze trends in attributable mortality rates.ResultsThe number of deaths and DALYs for CC, UC and OC increased since 1990 worldwide, while the ASDRs decreased. Regionally, the ASDR of CC was the highest in low SDI region at 15.05(11.92, 18.46) per 100,000 in 2019, while the ASDRs of UC and OC were highest in high SDI region at 2.52(2.32,2.64), and 5.67(5.16,6.09). The risk of CC death caused by unsafe sex increased with age and then gradually stabilized, with regional differences. The period effect of CC death attributed to smoking showed a downward trend. The cohort effect of UC death attributed to high BMI decreased in each region, especially in the early period in middle, low-middle and low SDI areas.ConclusionsGlobal secular trends of attributed mortality for the three GCs and their age, period, and cohort effects may reflect the diagnosis and treatment progress, rapid socioeconomic transitions, concomitant changes in lifestyle and behavioral patterns in different developing regions. Prevention and controllable measures should be carried out according to the epidemic status in different countries, raising awareness of risk factors to reduce future burden.

A comparison of computational algorithms for the Bayesian analysis of clinical trials.

Clinical trials are increasingly using Bayesian methods for their design and analysis. Inference in Bayesian trials typically uses simulation-based approaches such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Markov Chain Monte Carlo has high computational cost and can be complex to implement. The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations algorithm provides approximate Bayesian inference without the need for computationally complex simulations, making it more efficient than Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The practical properties of Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations compared to Markov Chain Monte Carlo have not been considered for clinical trials. Using data from a published clinical trial, we aim to investigate whether Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations is a feasible and accurate alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo and provide practical guidance for trialists interested in Bayesian trial design. Data from an international Bayesian multi-platform adaptive trial that compared therapeutic-dose anticoagulation with heparin to usual care in non-critically ill patients hospitalized for COVID-19 were used to fit Bayesian hierarchical generalized mixed models. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations was compared to two Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, implemented in the software JAGS and stan, using packages available in the statistical software R. Seven outcomes were analysed: organ-support free days (an ordinal outcome), five binary outcomes related to survival and length of hospital stay, and a time-to-event outcome. The posterior distributions for the treatment and sex effects and the variances for the hierarchical effects of age, site and time period were obtained. We summarized these posteriors by calculating the mean, standard deviations and the 95% equitailed credible intervals and presenting the results graphically. The computation time for each algorithm was recorded. The average overlap of the 95% credible interval for the treatment and sex effects estimated using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations was 96% and 97.6% compared with stan, respectively. The graphical posterior densities for these effects overlapped for all three algorithms. The posterior mean for the variance of the hierarchical effects of age, site and time estimated using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations are within the 95% credible interval estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo but the average overlap of the credible interval is lower, 77%, 85.6% and 91.3%, respectively, for Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations compared to stan. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations and stan were easily implemented in clear, well-established packages in R, while JAGS required the direct specification of the model. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations was between 85 and 269 times faster than stan and 26 and 1852 times faster than JAGS. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations could reduce the computational complexity of Bayesian analysis in clinical trials as it is easy to implement in R, substantially faster than Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in JAGS and stan, and provides near identical approximations to the posterior distributions for the treatment effect. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations was less accurate when estimating the posterior distribution for the variance of hierarchical effects, particularly for the proportional odds model, and future work should determine if the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations algorithm can be adjusted to improve this estimation.

Molecular dynamics study on the influence of thermal aging on the mechanical properties of epoxy resins for high voltage bushing.

Thermal aging significantly deteriorates the mechanical properties and service performance of epoxy resins used for the high-voltage bushing. Current studies on the thermal aging behavior of epoxy resins mainly focus on experimental observations. However, an in-depth understanding of the mechanism of thermal aging of epoxy resins requires the monitoring of structural evolution of epoxy resins during thermal aging at the molecular level. To thoroughly analyze the intrinsic factors affecting structural evolution and the effect of thermal aging on the mechanical properties of epoxy resin for high-voltage bushing, epoxy resin models with different crosslinking degrees were established and thermal aging treatments at various temperatures and time periods were carried out by molecular dynamics simulation. It was found that the tensile strength of the epoxy resin was enhanced with the increase of the crosslinking degree, which was related to the elevation of the proportion of C-N and O-H bonds in its structure. With the increase of thermal aging temperature, the tensile strength of the epoxy resin decreased, which was related to the formation of weak bonds. At the early stage of thermal aging and after a period of high-temperature thermal aging, the strength of epoxy resin significantly decreases. The thermal aging of the epoxy resin is accelerated under external loading. In addition, the crosslinking degree and curing agent also affect the thermal aging resistance of epoxy resins. The results of this study can provide guidance for predicting and improving the thermal aging resistance of epoxy resins. Materials Studio was used to construct molecular models and complete crosslinking reactions. DGEBA and 44DDS (or 33DDS) were mixed at a ratio of 2:1, followed by crosslinking reaction. During this process, the Nose method was used to control temperature, the Berendsen method was used to control pressure, and the polymer consistent force field (PCFF) was used to control the motion and force of atoms. Isobaric-isothermal ensemble (NPT ensemble) was used to heat up epoxy resin models to various thermal aging temperatures of 400K, 500K, 600K and 700K. The models were maintained at these temperatures for different thermal aging times of 100ps, 200ps, 300ps, 400ps, 500ps, 600ps, 700ps and 800ps. Afterwards, the models were cooled down to 300K and subjected to uniaxial tensile testing at this temperature with a strain rate of 1 × 109s-1. The structural configurations and stress-strain data during the tensile process were recorded. The flow stress of the material was derived by counting the average stress in the 20-50% strain interval.

Рост и развитие бычков лимузинской породы различных генотипов в постнатальном онтогенезе

The purpose of research is to study the growth and development of Limousin bulls of various genotypes in postnatal ontogenesis. Objectives: to study of weight growth, absolute, average daily gains in live weight and relative growth rate of young animals by age periods and for the entire period of growing and fattening; to study of the linear growth of bulls in postnatal ontogenesis based on the dynamics of body measurements and body composition indices. The objects of the study are bulls of the Limousin breed of various genotypes obtained from the mating of cows of French, Australian and local selection with bulls of local reproduction. The scientific and economic experiment was carried out in 2021–2022 at LLC Meat Union of Bashkir Producers, located in the Kuyurgazinsky District of the Republic of Bashkortostan. Indicators of live weight dynamics, live weight gain, relative growth rate, body measurements and body composition indices in the age aspect were studied. Research of the weight growth of young animals of various genotypes made it possible to identify significant differences in terms of absolute and average daily gain in live weight for the entire period of growing and fattening between bulls of the 1st and 2nd experimental groups, respectively, by 32.5 kg and 59.7 g (in both cases – by 6.2 %). The highest values of measurements, indicating the formation of meat qualities and body shape, were noted in bulls of the 1st group compared with peers of the 2nd and 3rd experimental groups. Breeding animals for a long period under different housing and feeding technologies influences the characteristics of the growth and development of the descendants of local reproduction of Limousin breed cattle.

Evaluation of a Medical Fitness Referral Program at a Single Institution From 2015 to 2022

Purpose: To assess whether biometric data of participants (i.e., weight, body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage (BFP), heart rate, and blood pressure) would be statistically different from pre- to post-program assessments after completion of a single institution medical fitness referral program. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of randomly selected participants from August 2015 to December 2022. Analysis of variance was performed for each outcome with groups separated by gender, age, and time period relative to COVID. Results: Analysis included 984 participants, 653 (66%) were female, mean age was 55.5 years (SD = 14.9) with 297 (30%) of participants ≥65, and 747 (76%) completed the program prior to COVID. Significant mean reductions from pre- to post-program were seen for BMI (−.43, SD = 1.16), weight (-2.69 pounds, SD = 7.44), BFP (.44%, SD = 2.35%), systolic blood pressure (3.33 mmHg, SD = 14.58), and diastolic blood pressure (2.18 mmHg, SD = 8.65). Additional significant interactions identified: weight difference for participants less than age 65 (−3.16, SD = 8.31) vs participants ≥65 (−1.60, SD = 4.66), P = .003. Conclusions: In this analysis, participants of the program from August 2015 to December 2022 were seen to have statistically significant reductions in the delineated biometric parameters. However, due to limitations, specific conclusions regarding causation cannot be drawn.

The influence of residential Environment and residential experience on psychological depression in older adults: Evidence from China and Europe

This cross-national study examined the influence of residential environment and experience on depression in older adults in China and Europe to address existing research gaps. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and employing ridge regression, it was found that residential environment and experience have a significant influence on older adults' depression. The influence of residential experience aligns with the sensitivity period hypothesis. The environment in which older adults live during specific age periods leaves an imprint on their psyche. This imprint is activated when specific environments are encountered in old age, thereby influencing the level of depression. This study examined how their influence on depression contributes to understanding older adults’ housing preferences and can guide housing-related policies.

Key Aroma Differences in Volatile Compounds of Aged Feng-Flavored Baijiu Determined Using Sensory Descriptive Analysis and GC×GC-TOFMS.

Sensory descriptive analysis of aged feng-flavored Baijiu liquor indicated notable differences in samples of different ages. The samples of freshly distilled Baijiu and those with shorter storage times exhibit bran and fresh green flavors, whereas, with increasing storage time, honey, sweet, and floral fragrances are gradually enhanced. Samples of feng-flavored Baijiu were prepared using headspace solid-phase microextraction, followed by comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry. A total of 496 compounds were identified in all samples, mainly categorized as 14 groups of substances, including esters and aldehydes. Interestingly, 42 of these substances were found in Feng-flavored Baijiu for the first time. Chemometrics was used to analyze the key differential compounds. First, 143 differential compounds closely related to aging were preliminarily screened, and principal component analysis revealed that these compounds were separated by baijiu age. Then, 65 differential compounds were selected by partial least squares discriminant analysis. Furthermore, 43 key differential compounds were selected by combined analysis with variable importance in projection and Pearson correlation coefficients. Partial least squares regression was used to study the correlation between the sensory properties and key differential compounds, and the results indicated that most compounds were closely related to the aging period of the Baijiu. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis and reference for flavor research on feng-flavored Baijiu.

The state of the reproductive system of adolescent girls after vaccination against human papillomavirus using a quadrivalent vaccine

Background. Currently, oncological diseases and their possible prevention are being actively studied. Cancer mortality remains high. A national project “Healthcare” has been started in Russia, including the Federal projects “Fighting Cancer” and “Development of Children’s Health Care, including the creation of a modern infrastructure for providing medical care to children”. In a number of regions, girls can be vaccinated against the human papillomavirus (HPV). The main reason for refusing HPV vaccination is an unfounded fear of negatively affecting the fertility and other bad data. The aim of the study is an investigation of the reproductive system of adolescent girls with completed course of vaccination against HPV using quadrivalent vaccine. Methods. We selected 65 schoolgirls in Moscow by analyzing medical documentation data. All of them were vaccinated against HPV and examined by a gynecologist. The state of their reproductive system was assessed. Results. Most girls received the vaccine at the age of 12–13, according to the regional vaccination calendar of the city of Moscow. They were vaccinated with the quadrivalent vaccine twice with an interval of 6 months; no adverse event was noted. The mean period of time since vaccination was 2.7 ± 1.1 years. The mean age of menarche, mean menstrual cycle length, and mean bleeding time were normal in girls vaccinated against HPV. Among menstrual disorders, dysmenorrhea and oligomenorrhea were most often observed, but the data did not differ from the population average. The incidence of abnormal uterine bleeding and breast pathology was lower. No papillomas were detected. Pubertal development corresponded to age of all girls. Conclusion. It has been established that vaccination against the human papillomavirus does not have a negative impact on the reproductive system of teenage girls. However, additional dynamic studies are needed at different age periods of girls and women vaccinated against HPV to confirm the positive effect on the sexual sphere and formation of strong adherence to vaccination.

Global, regional and national time trends in incidence of adverse effects of medical treatment, 1990–2019: an age–period–cohort analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BackgroundCurrent adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) incidence estimates rely on limited record reviews and underreporting surveillance systems. This study evaluated global and national longitudinal patterns in AEMT incidence from...

Design Method for Low-Carbon Fly Ash Concrete Considering Strength, Form Removal Time, and Carbonation Durability Life

Low-carbon fly ash concrete is one of the hottest research topics in the concrete industry. This study proposes a design method for low-carbon fly ash concrete that systematically considers strength, form removal time, and carbonation durability life. The basic steps of this method are as follows: First, based on the experimental results, the strength development formula of fly ash concrete using different mix ratios and different aging periods is obtained through regression. The adopted carbonation depth calculation formula can be used to consider the influence of the curing time and mix ratio on carbonation depth. Second, through the analysis of design cases, the dominant factors in the design of low-carbon fly ash concrete are clarified. For example, strength dominates, demolding time dominates, or carbonation durability dominates. If the concrete is removed from the formwork early, the carbonation resistance is very weak, and a large amount of cementitious material is required in order to meet the carbonation durability requirements. Appropriately extending the removal time of the concrete form can enhance the carbonation durability, reduce the content of cementitious materials, and achieve the goal of low-carbon design. In short, the method proposed in this study can be used as a general method for low-carbon fly ash concrete design, and this method can be extended for use in different countries and regions.

Analysis of actual nutrition of schoolchildren at different age periods

Introduction. A healthy, balanced diet can provide the child with nutritional protection from adverse environmental factors and helps to prevent diseases. Lack of continuity in nutrition at school and at home creates a deficit in the diet supply of nutrients necessary for a growing body. The purpose of the investigation is to study the actual nutrition of a group of schoolchildren at different age periods (in the dynamics of 10 years). Materials and methods. Actual nutrition of a group of schoolchildren in the dynamics over 2009 and 2019. The sample consisted of one hundred fifty 7-years children and the same children aged 17 years (124 children). Actual nutrition was studied using menu-layouts (at school) and the method of 24-hour (daily) nutrition reproduction (at home). Results. With age, there is a more pronounced imbalance in the supply of basic nutrients in the diet, associated with excess consumption of fats (7–25%), lack of carbohydrates, deficiency of dietary fibers (15–20%), a number of minerals (calcium, magnesium, iron) and vitamins (C, B1, B2, A, PP). Average daily food rations are unbalanced. The structure of children’s food sets becomes more irrational with increasing age. Regardless of the period of the study, diets are deficient in the level of consumption of milk, fish, vegetables, and fruits, and excessive in the level of consumption of foods with high energy value. In dynamics, the percentage of children with the recommended level of consumption of poultry is decreasing by 4.3 times, fish – by 3.8 times, milk – by 3 times, fermented milk products – by 2.6 times, cottage cheese and sour cream – by 2 times, butter and vegetable – 15.4 and 6.8 times, respectively. Limitations. This study is limited to a sample of a group of schoolchildren studying from the 1st to the 11th grade (in the dynamics with a ten-year interval). Conclusion. Persistent long-term violations of the basics of a healthy balanced diet by children create a probable risk of developing diseases in children in the future caused by nutritional factors, and can also be predictors of the development of pathological conditions and diseases in adulthood.

Knowledge and attitude of dental trauma among dental students in trace region of Turkiye

Background: The study aimed to determine the level of knowledge of Trakya University Faculty of Dentistry 4th and 5th grade students about the diagnosis and clinical management of dental traumatic injuries and to evaluate the effects of factors such as the students’ age, gender, and study period. Methods: Total of 180 participants who were students in Trakya University Faculty of Dentistry were evaluated in 2022. The questionnaire comprised three chapters: the first chapter contained sociodemographic information, the second chapter contained general information such as trauma history, clinical experience, dental trauma education, and self-assessment of dental trauma knowledge, while the third chapter contained questions about the clinical management of dental trauma. Questionnaire reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha, which was found to be 0.717. This indicates acceptable internal consistency (0.8>α≥0.7). The survey data underwent analysis using the chi-square test, the Mann-Whitney U Test, and multiple regression analysis. Results: A total 180 dentistry students in Trakya University participated in the survey. While 90.6% of the participants stated that they had not experienced any dental injury while continuing their education, 50.6% stated that they witnessed dental injury. 71.1% of the participants reported having a moderate level of knowledge regarding dental injuries. The results about clinical management of dental trauma showed that median level of case knowledge of the participants was 11. Considering that the highest score that can be obtained is 20, the participants are considered to have moderate case knowledge. When case knowledge level differed according to socio-demographic characteristics, it also differed significantly according to gender (z=-3.811; P<0.01). The case knowledge score (n=12) of the female participants is higher than the score of the male participants (n=10). Conclusion: The knowledge of dental students about the management of dental trauma was accepted but moderate.

Optimization of hardness values via Taguchi method for chestnut wood etched or impregnated with sodium bicarbonate after artificial aging

In today’s wood industry, research is being conducted to increase material strength, ensure long-term use, and increase its hardness against many harmful external factors. With the studies on the protection of wood, new protection materials and methods are introduced. In this study, wood was etched with solid sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3) and 1, 2, and 3 bars of air pressure after treatment with NaHCO3 solution and drying. The change in hardness values of impregnated and surface-treated (paint, varnish) chestnut wood after artificial aging was examined. Etching, impregnation, and surface treatment factors were optimized using the Taguchi design of experiments (DoE) after artificial aging for 3, 6, and 9 months. L16 orthogonal array was used to determine the optimum conditions for determining hardness values and their percentage changes. The results showed that the abrasive factor prevails over the effect of surface treatments. It has been understood that the most effective factor in the hardness value changes during the artificial aging period (3-6-9 months) is abrasion, and the factor with the least effect is the surface parameter. The percentage accuracy of the model used in estimating the wear factor average R2 across all dependent variables was 95%.

Earliest Mule Remains from Early Bronze Age Central Anatolia.

This paper discusses the discoveries of early donkey and the earliest mule remains in Central Anatolia from the site Derekutuğun. This site represents the remains of a village dating back to the Early Bronze Age and Assyrian Trade Colonies period, associated with mining. The archaeofaunal assemblage was studied by the author and his team using classical archaeozoological methods. The dental remains of the Equidae found at Derekutuğun have been re-examined and are described in this article. The dental evidence indicates that donkeys, and possibly the earliest mules ever found in Central Anatolia, were kept at this site. Although the paper is based on the archaeozoological remains, written sources from the period also support the faunal identification. Derekutuğun was a small settlement that specialized in processing copper ore, and which was an important hub for a trade network because of its extensive mining and extraction operations.

An Age–Period–Cohort Framework for Profit and Profit Volatility Modeling

The greatest source of failure in portfolio analytics is not individual models that perform poorly, but rather an inability to integrate models quantitatively across management functions. The separable components of age–period–cohort models provide a framework for integrated credit risk modeling across an organization. Using a panel data structure, credit risk scores can be integrated with an APC framework using either logistic regression or machine learning. Such APC scores for default, payoff, and other key rates fit naturally into forward-looking cash flow estimates. Given an economic scenario, every applicant at the time of origination can be assigned profit and profit volatility estimates so that underwriting can truly be account-level. This process optimizes the most fallible part of underwriting, which is setting cutoff scores and assigning loan pricing and terms. This article provides a summary of applications of APC models across portfolio management roles, with a description of how to create the models to be directly integrated. As a consequence, cash flow calculations are available for each account, and cutoff scores can be set directly from portfolio financial targets.

Physical and Chemical Characteristics of Droppings as Sensitive Markers of Chicken Health Status.

The aim of this study was to analyze the physical and chemical characteristics of chicken droppings (n = 73), which were collected during different age periods and classified by visual inspection into normal (N) and abnormal (A). Significant differences were found in the texture, pH, dry matter (DM), fatty acids (FAs), short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), and volatile compounds (VCs) between the tested dropping groups (p ≤ 0.05). The age period of the chicken had a significant influence on the color coordinates, texture, pH, DM, and SCFA contents in N and A as well as on all FAs content in N (p ≤ 0.05). Droppings from the N group had a harder texture, lower values of a* and b* color coordinates, higher DM content, higher level of linoleic FA, and lower level of α-linolenic FA than the droppings from the A group in each age period (p ≤ 0.05). The predominant SCFA was acetic acid, the content of which was significantly lower in the N group compared to that of the A group. The alcohol and organic acid contents were the highest in most of the A group at different age periods, while ketones dominated in the N and A groups. In conclusion, the majority of the tested dropping characteristics were influenced by the age period. While certain characteristics demonstrate differences between N and A, a likely broader range of droppings is required to provide more distinct trends regarding the distribution of characteristics across different droppings.