Aggregate Total Factor Productivity Research Articles

State advances and private retreats? — Evidence of aggregate productivity decomposition in China

This paper is motivated by the recent debate on the existence and scale of China's ‘Guo Jin Min Tui’ phenomenon, which is often translated as ‘the state sector advances and the private sector retreats’. We argue that the profound implication of an advancing state sector is not the size expansion of the state ownership in the economy per se, but the likely retardation of the development of the already financially constrained private sector and the issues around the sustainability of the already weakening Chinese economy growth. Drawing on recent methodological advances, we provide a critical analysis of the contributions of the state and non-state sectors in the aggregate Total Factor Productivity and its growth over the period of 1998–2007 to verify the existence of GJMT and its possible impacts on Chinese economic growth. Overall, we find strong and consistent evidence of a systematic and worsening resource misallocation within the state sector and/or between the state sectors and private sectors over time. This suggests that non-market forces allow resources to be driven away from their competitive market allocation and towards the inefficient state sector.

Growth in Total Factor Productivity and Links Among Firms

In this paper we study the relevance of links among firms in explaining the mean and the auto-correlation property of the aggregate total factor productivity rate of growth (Solow residual). Our approach relies on the interaction between idiosyncratic shocks of firms and the network structure of firms. We study analytically this phenomenon using the adjacency matrix of a complete network and we present a simulation with more general random adjacency matrices. We also check empirically, using Italian data, the relationship between the network structure and the Solow residual. In particular, in the empirical part, we find two main results: Firstly, the relationship between the Solow residual and the measure of connectivity of firms is positive, in accordance with the analytical results. Secondly, we find that the measure of connectivity is pro-cyclical with the annual growth rate of industrial production.

Total Factor Productivity Growth in Local Enterprise Partnership Regions in Britain, 1997–2008

Harris R. and Moffat J. Total factor productivity growth in Local Enterprise Partnership regions in Britain, 1997–2008, Regional Studies. This paper decomposes aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Britain for 1997–2008 to show the contribution of different Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) as well as manufacturing and services and UK- and foreign-owned plants within LEPs. These contributions are further decomposed to show the role of productivity growth in continuing plants vis-à-vis reallocations in output shares. The results show that the largest LEPs, in population terms, with higher levels of job density, a greater reliance on manufacturing, more skilled and better qualified workers, and a lower turnover of businesses achieved the highest TFP growth. This is mostly the result of reallocations of output shares towards high productivity plants.

TFP during a credit crunch

The financial crisis of 2008 was followed by sharp contractions in aggregate output and employment and an unusual increase in aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). This paper attempts to explain these facts by modeling the creation and destruction of jobs in the presence of heterogeneity in firm productivity and frictional credit and labor markets. The aggregate level of TFP is determined by both the underlying distribution of firm productivity and the structures of the credit and labor markets. Adverse shocks to credit markets destroy the least productive jobs and slow job creation, thus raising aggregate TFP and unemployment, and reducing output.

Productivity and resource misallocation in Latin America1)

Total factor productivity (TFP) in Latin America has declined relative to the US since the mid-1970s. This paper applies a comparable methodology to firm-level data of ten Latin American countries to quantify the heterogeneity of firm productivity and the extent to which resource misallocation can explain lower aggregate TFP. In general, productivity heterogeneity and resource misallocation are found to be much larger than in the US. Achieving an efficient allocation of resources could boost manufacturing TFP between 41% and 122% depending on the countries and years considered. We also find that difficulty in access to capital and restrictive labor regulations explain distortions faced by firms.

DYNASTIC MANAGEMENT

The most striking difference in corporate‐governance arrangements between rich and poor countries is that the latter rely much more heavily on the dynastic family firm, where ownership and control are passed on from one generation to the other. We argue that if the heir to the family firm has no talent for managerial decision making, dynastic management is a failure of meritocracy that reduces a firm's total factor productivity (TFP). We present a simple model that studies the macroeconomic causes and consequences of dynastic management. In our model, the incidence of dynastic management depends, among other factors, on the imperfections of contractual enforcement. A plausible calibration suggests that, via dynastic management, poor contract enforcement may be a substantial contributor to observed cross‐country differences in aggregate TFP. (JEL O43, O47, G32)

TFP During a Credit Crunch

The financial crisis of 2008 was followed by sharp contractions in aggregate output and The financial crisis of 2008 was followed by sharp contractions in aggregate output and employment and an unusual increase in aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). This paper attempts to explain these facts by modeling the creation and destruction of jobs in the presence of heterogeneity in firm productivity and frictional credit and labor markets. The aggregate level of TFP is determined by both the underlying distribution of firm productivity and the structures of the credit and labor markets. Adverse shocks to credit markets destroy the least productive jobs and slow job creation, thus raising aggregate TFP and unemployment, and reducing output.

Financial Structure, Misallocation and TFP

This paper studies the quantitative relevance of the cross-sectional dispersion of firm financial structure in explaining the intra-industry allocation efficiency of productive factors. I solve a heterogenous firms model with financial constraints and distortions to the marginal rental-rate of capital, and develop a measure for the intra-industry misallocation of factors of production. The distribution of rental rate of capital and two types of firm-level balance sheet characteristics (pledgeability and collateralizable asset positions) determine the extent of misallocation and industry level total factor productivity (TFP). In the model firms that face high capital rental rates borrow in the financial market to lower the marginal cost of production and increase the scale of investment up to the limit that is allowed by the balance sheet positions. Using Compustat data, I calibrate the model for seven major industry clusters from the U.S. economy. The counterfactual policy experiments show that weakening the observed balance sheet positions for financially constrained firms leads to a reallocation of production factors from firms that face high cost distortions to firms with low cost distortions and cause industry level TFP losses. The value added from firm-level financial access for aggregate industry performance varies across sectors: For example, in IT and Textile & Fabrics industries where external finance dependence plays an important role for industry performance shutting down financial access lowers aggregate industry TFP to 50% of the existing level. The results suggest that the aggregate economic benefits from financial sector development vary with external finance dependence of industries confirming the results obtained by Rajan and Zingales (1998).

Economic Restructuring and Total Factor Productivity Growth: Tunisia Over the Period 1983-2001

In this paper we aim to measure and decompose the growth of frontier total factor productivity (TFP) in Tunisia over the period 1983-2001. We define frontier TFP growth as the shift of the economy’s production frontier, which we obtain by solving for each year a linear program, a sort of aggregate DEA analysis. We then decompose this aggregate frontier TFP growth into changes in technology, terms of trade, efficiency and resource utilization. We can also attribute frontier TFP growth to its main beneficiaries: labor, decomposed into five types, capital, decomposed into two types, and the allowable trade deficit. We find that frontier TFP grew by about 1% a year after the introduction of the structural adjustment program of 1987. Labor, in particular unskilled labor, was the main beneficiary of frontier TFP growth. The Solow residual reflecting technological change was the main driver of frontier TFP growth. The terms of trade were not favorable to Tunisia. After 1992, while the Tunisian efficiency frontier moved outwards, the country moved away from its efficiency frontier.

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The Macroeconomics of Microfinance

We provide a quantitative evaluation of the aggregate and distributional impact of microfinance or credit programs targeted toward small businesses. We find that the redistributive impact of microfinance is stronger in general equilibrium than in partial equilibrium, but the impact on aggregate output and capital is smaller in general equilibrium. Aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) increases with microfinance in general equilibrium but decreases in partial equilibrium. When general equilibrium effects are accounted for, scaling up the microfinance program will have only a small impact on per-capita income, because the increase in TFP is counterbalanced by lower capital accumulation resulting from the redistribution of income from high-savers to low-savers. Nevertheless, the vast majority of the population will be positively affected by microfinance through the increase in equilibrium wages.

The Cyclicality of Productivity Dispersion

Using plant-level data, I show that the dispersion of total factor productivity in U.S. durable manufacturing is greater in recessions than in booms. This cyclical property of productivity dispersion is much less pronounced in non-durable manufacturing. In durables, this phenomenon primarily reflects a relatively higher share of unproductive firms in a recession. In order to interpret these findings, I construct a business cycle model where production in durables requires a fixed input. In a boom, when the market price of this fixed input is high, only more productive firms enter and only more productive incumbents survive, which results in a more compressed productivity distribution. The resulting higher average productivity in durables endogenously translates into a lower average relative price of durables. Additionally, my model is consistent with the following business cycle facts: procyclical entry, procyclical aggregate total factor productivity, more procyclicality in durable than non-durable output, procyclical employment and countercyclicality in the relative price of durables and the cross section of stock returns.

The sources of total factor productivity growth in Chinese agriculture: technological progress or efficiency gain?

Provincial panel data from the agricultural sector and stochastic frontier production function model were employed to study the total factor productivity (TFP) growth since the 1980s in China. We decomposed the TFP growth into technological progress and technical efficiency changes (efficiency gains) as well as the aggregate agricultural TFP growth into crop-specific subsector's TFP growths. We found that Chinese agriculture experienced significant productivity growth in the last few decades, although the growth rates vary considerably among the subsectors. During this period, the source of productivity growth comes from either technological progress or efficiency gains, not from both of them simultaneously. Particularly since the 1990s, Chinese agriculture experienced a great technological progress and yet a considerable efficiency loss. The differences among sources of productivity growth and among subsectors call for distinct policy responses.

BIASED TECHNICAL CHANGE, INTERMEDIATE GOODS, AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY

In this paper I show that the intensity at which intermediate goods are used in the production process affects aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). To do this, I construct an input–output model economy in which firms produce gross output by means of a production function in capital, labor, and intermediate goods. This production function is subject, together with the standard neutral technical change, to intermediates-biased technical change. Positive (negative) intermediates-biased technical change implies a decline (increase) in the elasticity of gross output with respect to intermediate goods. In equilibrium, this elasticity appears as an explicit part of TFP in the value added aggregate production function. In particular, when the elasticity of gross output with respect to intermediates increases, aggregate TFP declines. I use the model to quantify the impact of intermediates-biased technical change for measured TFP growth in Italy. The exercise shows that intermediates-biased technical change can account for the productivity slowdown observed in Italy from 1994 to 2004.

The Cyclicality of Productivity Dispersion

Using plant-level data, I show that the dispersion of total factor productivity in U.S. durable manufacturing is greater in recessions than in booms. This cyclical property of productivity dispersion is much less pronounced in non-durable manufacturing. In durables, this phenomenon primarily reflects a relatively higher share of unproductive firms in a recession. In order to interpret these findings, I construct a business cycle model where production in durables requires a fixed input. In a boom, when the market price of this fixed input is high, only more productive firms enter and only more productive incumbents survive, which results in a more compressed productivity distribution. The resulting higher average productivity in durables endogenously translates into a lower average relative price of durables. Additionally, my model is consistent with the following business cycle facts: procyclical entry, procyclical aggregate total factor productivity, more procyclicality in durable than non-durable output, procyclical employment and countercyclicality in the relative price of durables and the cross section of stock returns.

Macroeconomic Implications of “Deep Habits” in Banking

Recent empirical evidence shows that price‐cost margins in the market for bank credit are countercyclical in the U.S. economy and that this cyclical behavior can be explained in part from the fact that switching banks is costly for customers (i.e., from a borrower hold‐up effect). Our goal, in this paper, is to study the “financial accelerator” role of these countercyclical margins as a propagation mechanism of macroeconomic shocks. To do so, we apply the “deep habits” framework in Ravn, Schmitt‐Grohé, and Uribe (2006) to financial markets to model this hold‐up effect within a monopolistically competitive banking industry. We are able to reproduce the pattern of price‐cost margins observed in the data, and to show that the real effects of aggregate total factor productivity shocks are larger the stronger the friction implied by borrower hold‐up. Also, output, investment, and employment all become more volatile than in a standard model with constant margins in credit markets. An empirical contribution of our work is to provide structural estimates of the deep habits parameters for financial markets.

Economic Restructuring and Total Factor Productivity Growth: Tunisia Over the Period 1983-2001

In this paper we aim to measure and decompose the growth of frontier total factor productivity (TFP) in Tunisia over the period 1983-2001. We define frontier TFP growth as the shift of the economy's production frontier, which we obtain by solving for each year a linear program, a sort of aggregate DEA analysis. We then decompose this aggregate frontier TFP growth into changes in technology, terms of trade, efficiency and resource utilization. We can also attribute frontier TFP growth to its main beneficiaries: labor, decomposed into five types, capital, decomposed into two types, and the allowable trade deficit. We find that frontier TFP grew by about 1% a year after the introduction of the structural adjustment program of 1987. Labor, in particular unskilled labor, was the main beneficiary of frontier TFP growth. The Solow residual reflecting technological change was the main driver of frontier TFP growth. The terms of trade were not favorable to Tunisia. After 1992, while the Tunisian efficiency frontier moved outwards, the country moved away from its efficiency frontier.

Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India*

Resource misallocation can lower aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). We use microdata on manufacturing establishments to quantify the potential extent of misallocation in China and India versus the United States. We measure sizable gaps in marginal products of labor and capital across plants within narrowly defined industries in China and India compared with the United States. When capital and labor are hypothetically reallocated to equalize marginal products to the extent observed in the United States, we calculate manufacturing TFP gains of 30%–50% in China and 40%–60%.in India.

Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India

Resource misallocation can lower aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). We use micro data on manufacturing establishments to quantify the potential extent of misallocation in China and India compared to the U.S. Compared to the U.S., we measure sizable gaps in marginal products of labor and capital across plants within narrowly-defined industries in China and India. When capital and labor are hypothetically reallocated to equalize marginal products to the extent observed in the U.S., we calculate manufacturing TFP gains of 30-50% in China and 40-60% in India.