Aggregate Electoral Data Research Articles

Victorian Voting: The Origins of Party Orientation and Class Alignment

AbstractMuch of what we know about the alignment of voters with parties comes from mass surveys of the electorate in the postwar period or from aggregate electoral data. Using individual elector‐level panel data from nineteenth‐century United Kingdom poll books, we reassess the development of a party centered electorate. We show that (a) the electorate was party‐centered by the time of the extension of the franchise in 1867, (b) a decline in candidate‐centered voting is largely attributable to changes in the behavior of the working class, and (c) the enfranchised working class aligned with the Liberal left. This early alignment of the working class with the left cannot entirely be explained by a decrease in vote buying. The evidence suggests instead that the alignment was based on the programmatic appeal of the Liberals. We argue that these facts can plausibly explain the subsequent development of the party system.

Victorian Voting: Party Orientation and Class Alignment Revisited

Much of what we know about the alignment of voters with parties comes from mass surveys of the electorate in the postwar period or from aggregate electoral data. Using individual elector level panel data from 19th-century United Kingdom poll books, we reassess the development of a party-centred electorate. We show that (i) the electorate was party-centred by the time of the extension of the franchise in 1867; (ii) a decline in candidate-centred voting is largely attributable to changes in the behaviour of the working class; and (iii) the enfranchised working class aligned with the Liberal left. This early alignment of the working class with the left cannot entirely be explained by a decrease in vote buying. The evidence suggests instead that the alignment was based on the programmatic appeal of the Liberals. We argue that these facts can plausibly explain the subsequent development of the party system.

Party System Change in a New Democracy: The Case of Mexico

Since the end of the last century Mexico has experienced a profound process of political and electoral change which was reflected in its transition from a dominant party authoritarian regime to a competitive multiparty system. This paper has two parts and a concluding section. The first part focuses on major changes in a number of relevant dimensions of the Mexican party system, including electoral competitiveness, party fractionalisation, electoral volatility, nationalisation, and the aggregate distribution of partisan loyalties among the electorate (macropartisanship) over the last three decades. The analysis is based on aggregate electoral data at the national and the district level, as well as on data from surveys of public opinion. The paper shows important changes in the structure and behaviour of the Mexican electorate, such as increasing partisan de-alignment as well as growing competitiveness, fractionalisation, and nationalisation of the party system. The second part is a brief review of the factors driving the process of political and electoral change in Mexico.

A dynamic model of the invalid vote: How a changing candidate menu shapes null voting behavior

Existing scholarship attributes invalid voting to independent variables that are largely time invariant (e.g., levels of education, political institutions). Yet, rates of invalid voting vary widely across countries and over time. In this paper, I argue that dynamic features of political competition (e.g., the number of candidates competing) affect invalid voting in presidential elections in predictable ways. High levels of candidates should have a positive association with invalid voting, as voters frustrated by the status quo opt out of the process when political options are confusing or objectionable. Yet, positive change in the number of candidates ought to reduce null voting, as the entry of more candidates presents new options over which to cast valid ballots. I test these expectations, and find support for them, in multivariate analyses of aggregate electoral data from the Latin American region for 1982–2015.

Electoral Accountability in the Midst of Criminal Violence: Evidence from Mexico

AbstractRising levels of crime and insecurity affect the quality of life. A fundamental question for the prospects of democracy is whether voters, in hopes of reaching better solutions to conditions of prevailing insecurity, can hold their elected officials accountable for such situations. This article argues that electoral accountability amid criminal violence requires voters to be able to assign responsibility for crime, and that partisan alignment across levels of government facilitates this task. Recent Mexican elections are examined to test this argument. Relying on both aggregate electoral data and individual survey evidence, this study shows that voters hold politicians accountable for crime in the narrow circumstances of organized crime–related violence and political alignment. This evidence not only provides additional caveats to issue voting models, but also opens new avenues of research on electoral accountability.

Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological

This paper studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of voters' preferences when voters are ideological. We build on the methods introduced by Degan and Merlo (2009) representing elections as Voronoi tessellations of the ideological space. We exploit the properties of this geometric structure to establish that voter preference distributions and other parameters of interest can be identified from aggregate electoral data. We also show that these objects can be consistently estimated using the methodology proposed by Ai and Chen (2003) and we illustrate our analysis by performing an actual estimation using data from the 1999 European Parliament elections.

Crowded Space, Fertile Ground: Party Entry and the Effective Number of Parties

This paper develops a novel argument as to the conditions under which new political parties will form in democratic states. Our approach hinges on the manner in which politicians evaluate the policy implications of new party entry alongside considerations of incumbency for its own sake. We demonstrate that if candidates care sufficiently about policy outcomes, then the likelihood of party entry shouldincreasewith the effective number of status quo parties in the party system. This relationship weakens, and eventually disappears, as politicians’ emphasis on “office-seeking” motivations increases relative to their interest in public policy. We test these predictions with both aggregate electoral data in contemporary Europe and a data set on legislative volatility in Turkey, uncovering support for the argument that party system fragmentation should positively affect the likelihood of entry when policy-seeking motivations are relevant, but not otherwise.

Retrospective Economic Voting and the Intertemporal Dynamics of Electoral Accountability in the American States

How durable are politicians’ policymaking reputations with the electorate? A theory of reputation depreciation is advanced to explain why the electorate’s capacity to hold former officeholders accountable for prior economic stewardship is weakening not only in the time elapsed between prior elective office and seeking subsequent elective office, but also diminishing at a greater rate as the evaluative window for making retrospective economic assessments widens. Aggregate electoral data on ex-governors in the American states suggests that while prior economic stewardship evaluated over entire tenure in office for ex-governors offer the strongest initial retrospective economic attributions, it also yields the greatest rate of reputation depreciation for ex-governors seeking future elective office. Reputational slippage transpires with the passage of time between prior elective office and returning to the electoral arena, whereby voters experience increasing difficulty when it comes to rewarding competent experienced politicians, as well as sanctioning their incompetent counterparts.

Retrospective Economic Voting and the Intertemporal Dynamics of Electoral Accountability in the American States

Are politicians' policymaking reputations durable according to the judgment of voters? A theory of intertemporal attribution discounting is advanced for purposes of explaining how voters apply heterogeneous sanctions and rewards for a non-incumbent candidate’s prior economic stewardship in elective office. Aggregate electoral data on ex-governors in the American states uncovers strong empirical evidence of intertemporal attribution discounting behavior. Voters using prior economic stewardship over entire tenure in office for ex-governors form the strongest initial retrospective economic attributions, but also intertemporally discount ex-governors seeking future elective office at a higher rate than compared to when their retrospective evaluations are restricted to either the last term or final year in office. This study demonstrates that reputational slippage transpires with the passage of time between prior elective office and returning to the electoral arena, whereby voters experience increasing difficulty when it comes to rewarding competent experienced politicians, as well as sanctioning incompetent counterparts.

Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters are Ideological, Second Version

This paper studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of voters’ preferences when voters are ideological. We establish that voter preference distributions and other parameters of interest can be identified from aggregate electoral data. We also show that these objects can be consistently estimated and illustrate our analysis by performing an actual estimation using data from the 1999 European Parliament elections.

Spatial Vote Redistribution in Redrawn Polling Units

SummaryA large proportion of electoral analyses using geography are performed on a small area basis. In each new election there are always modifications to the previously existing polling units. The use of past voting results in small area aggregate data electoral forecasting models and political analyses therefore requires establishing a correspondence between old and new polling units. Traditionally, the task of tracking changes to assign an electoral history to the new units properly has been carried out by hand, comparing unit codes and census figures. This is an extremely cumbersome task that cannot always be performed, as when a massive (geographically intense) reorganization of polling unit boundaries takes place. Nowadays, however, assisted by the increasing availability of geographical data, this chore could be easily automated and even improved with the help of spatial statistical software. The paper suggests several methods for allocating votes by using geographical information systems tools and shows the effectiveness of spatial strategies. These approaches will permit electoral pollsters and forecasters to solve the issue efficiently and to apply the most successful electoral forecasting techniques that are currently in use and will help electoral geographers with the problem of comparing spatial aggregate electoral data from different elections. The relevance of the analysis, nevertheless, goes beyond electoral data, as the reallocation of data from one set of administrative units onto another arises in many applications. The geometric approach is proposed as a natural substitute for the classical approach and three additional approaches (centroid, surface and compositional) are also suggested, exploiting the spatial patterns that electoral outcomes display. The relative performance of the various methods is assessed in three real data instances. The results suggest that the surface approach, which obtains past voting outcomes in each polling unit by averaging their vote proportion interpolations, is the most suitable procedure.

Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters are Ideological

This paper studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of voters' preferences when voters are ideological. We build on the methods introduced by Degan and Merlo (2009) representing elections as Voronoi tessellations of the ideological space. We exploit the properties of this geometric structure to establish that voter preference distributions and other parameters of interest can be identified from aggregate electoral data. We also show that these objects can be consistently estimated using the methodology proposed by Ai and Chen (2003) and we illustrate our analysis by performing an actual estimation using data from the 1999 European Parliament elections.

Local context and extreme right support in England: The British National Party in the 2002 and 2003 local elections

This paper investigates the contextual determinants of support for the British National Party (BNP) in the 2002 and 2003 local elections in England. Aggregate electoral data are matched to contextual data at two geographic levels to estimate a multivariate Tobit model of support for the BNP. At the district level, large ethnic minority (particularly Pakistani and Bangladeshi) populations are associated with greater support for the BNP. Within these districts, though, the party is strongest within predominantly white neighborhoods. The BNP also seems to be strongest in economically deprived urban areas. In particular, local housing market conditions are found to have a greater effect on BNP support.

Electoral Cycles, Party Organization and Mobilization in Canada

Canadian political parties oscillate between periods of inter‐election quiescence and electoral year mobilization. In this paper we measure, across a series of elections, organizational activity in inter‐election periods as parties develop strategic positions and seek to reshape their bases, and then their subsequent mobilization strategies and successes. Our research strategy employs ecological models rooted in electoral district level data including party resources and activity (from annual financial accounts), census data describing the electoral districts, as well as conventional aggregate electoral data. Our initial models utilise evidence from Ontario, Canada's largest province, and cover several electoral cycles that witnessed a string of governmental turnovers. This analysis provides a more nuanced model of party systems than those based on simple election results. Even in a period of remarkable electoral flux, party activity and success appear to be deeply rooted in the diverse constituency social and political contexts of the system.

Party Activity across Electoral Cycles: The New Brunswick Party System, 1979-1994

Political parties in Canada oscillate between periods of inter-election quiescence and active electoral year mobilization. This article moves beyond vote share accounts of party system change by using the financial accounts of local associations and central party organizations to track these patterns in the New Brunswick party system. The analysis covers several electoral cycles encompassing government turnover and the rise of a flash party. Ecological models rooted in electoral district-level data (including measures of party activity based on their annual financial records, census data describing the electoral districts and conventional aggregate electoral data) are developed to provide a more nuanced account of a party and party system change than those based on simple election results. The findings demonstrate that even in a period of remarkable electoral flux, party activity and success appears to be rooted in diverse constituency social and political contexts.

Partisan Polarization in Presidential Support: The Electoral Connection

By every measure, politics in Washington became increasingly polarized along partisan and ideological lines between the Nixon and George W. Bush (2001) administrations. One component of this development has been the growing partisan disparity in congressional support for presidential initiatives. This trend has a manifest electoral and popular basis. Survey and aggregate electoral data show that the extent to which presidents and members of the opposition party in Congress share electoral constituencies has declined significantly, and the parties' respective electoral bases have become increasingly polarized in terms of both ideology and presidential voting patterns. Presidential job approval data also show a widening gap in the average approval ratings expressed by self-identified Republicans and Democrats. These changes have substantially reduced incentives for opposition members to support the president, while making it politically more attractive for the president's own partisans to support his positions. If, as the evidence suggests, partisan differences in presidential support have sturdy electoral roots, they are likely to persist. The overwhelming bipartisan popular and congressional support initially enjoyed by George W. Bush after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 was unsustainable because it was not supported by a fundamental and durable change in mass political attitudes.

Black Incumbents, White Districts

This article explores the controversial 1996 success of three African American incumbents (Sanford Bishop and Cynthia McKinney of Georgia and Corrine Brown of Florida) who lost their majority-Black southern congressional districts to Supreme Court decisions. Using aggregate electoral data and Gary King's solution to the ecological inference problem, we gauge (a) the extent of bias against Black candidates, (b) the extent of backlash against Black voters, and (c) the extent to which incumbency explains away the Georgia victories. The findings are compatible with neither a full attack on racial redistricting nor a defense of it. Southern Whites do not exhibit either consistent bias against Black candidates or backlash against Black voters, but racial polarization is nonetheless evident and dispersed in a geographically systematic manner. Barriers against Black representation are still strong, but they are not the electoral barriers that civil rights activists assume when they embrace majority-minority districts.

Party Fragmentation and Presidential Elections in Post-Communist Democracies

Despite its controversial status as a stable governmental form, many of today's societies attempting to make the transition to democracy have or will, for a variety of reasons, choose presidentialism. Meanwhile, the evidence suggests that the combination of presidentialism and multipartism is especially dangerous for democratic stability (Mainwaring 1994). The question this essay addresses, though, is whether presidential elections themselves serve to encourage a fragmented party system, at least in the initial stages of democratization. In transitional political systems presidential elections encourage party fragmentation, but in a way different from that of highly proportional purely parliamentary mechanisms. Specifically, parties proliferate to support the presidential aspirations of political elites. Multivariate regression analysis on cross-sectional aggregate electoral data, supported by extensive outliers diagnostics and assessments of the role of country-specific effects is applied. A nested model is used to discriminate among the secondary hypotheses. Controls include: parliamentary election rules (district magnitude, threshold for representation, adjustment districts, ballot structure), relative timing of presidential and parliamentary elections, and basic societal cleavage structure. Using as our data source the recent elections in East and Central Europe and the European part of the former Soviet Union, we show that presidential elections consistently significantly increase party fragmentation. At the same time, the data are consistent with the hypothesis that presidentialism does encourage the overall consolidation in party systems through voters' abandonment of some parties, akin to Duverger's 'psychological effect'.

The Political Economy of Competitive Elections in the Developing World

Theory: Theories of economic voting are applied to competitive elections in the developing world. Hypotheses: The effect of the macroeconomy on electoral support for incumbent parties is mitigated by the impact of the economy on turnout and the relative sensitivity of voters to recession and growth. Method: Pooled time series data on aggregate electoral data for eight developing countries are analyzed using least squares with dummy variables (LSDV). Results: Economic decline imposes enormous electoral costs on governments, but economic growth provides no electoral benefits.

Voter Sensitivity to Economic Conditions: A Canadian-American Comparison

The theory that voters hold government responsible for economic conditions has contributed to a more comprehensive explanation of electoral behavior in a number of countries,' although in American studies aggregate analysis has tended to produce stronger support for the theory than does survey research.2 In Canada aggregate analysis of the effect of economic performance on voting behavior has not previously been attempted, while election survey analyses have tended to report null or weak net effects for this relationship on party vote shares.3 This study examines the effect of economic performance on incumbency voting in Canadian federal elections from 1930 to 1979, using aggregate economic and electoral data. In addition, the sensitivity of the Canadian and American electorates to interelection economic conditions is compared.