Age-standardized Mortality Research Articles

Exploring the trend of age-standardized mortality rates from cardiovascular disease in Malaysia: a joinpoint analysis (2010–2021)

IntroductionCardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major health concern worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in late 2019 may have had an impact on the trend of CVD mortality. This study aimed to investigate the trend and changes in CVD mortality rates in Malaysia, using age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) from 2010 to 2021.MethodsThe Malaysian population and mortality data from 2010 to 2021 were obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM). ASMRs from CVD per 100,000 population were calculated based on the World Health Organization (2000–2025) standard population using the direct method. The ASMRs were computed based on sex, age groups (including premature mortality age, 30–69 years), and CVD types. The annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the ASMR with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated from joinpoint regression model using the Joinpoint Regression Program, Version 4.9.1.0.ResultsThroughout the study period (2010–2021), ASMRs for CVD exhibited an increase from 93.1 to 147.0 per 100,000, with an AAPC of 3.6% (95% CI: 2.1 to 5.2). The substantial increase was observed between 2015 and 2018 (APC 12.6%, 95% CI: 5.4%, 20.3%), with significant changes in both sexes, and age groups 50–69, 70 years and over, and 30–69 (premature mortality age). Notably, the ASMR trend remained consistently high in the premature mortality age group across other age groups, with males experiencing higher rates than females. No significant changes were detected before or after the COVID-19 pandemic (between 2019 and 2021), except for females who died from IHD (10.3% increase) and those aged 0–4 (25.2% decrease).ConclusionOverall, our analysis highlights the persistently high burden of CVD mortality in Malaysia, particularly among the premature mortality age group. These findings underscore the importance of continued efforts to address CVD risk factors and implement effective prevention and management strategies. Further research is needed to fully understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on CVD mortality rates and to inform targeted interventions to reduce the burden of CVD in Malaysia.

Mortality associated with osteoporosis and pathological fractures in the United States (1999–2020): a multiple-cause-of-death study

BackgroundOsteoporosis with pathological fractures is a significant public health issue, contributing to morbidity, disability, diminished quality of life, and increased mortality. Understanding mortality trends related to this condition is crucial for developing effective interventions to reduce mortality and improve healthcare outcomes. This study aimed to analyze trends and causes of death associated with osteoporosis and pathological fractures in the United States using a multi-cause approach.MethodsAnnual death and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) data from 1999 to 2020 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) mortality database. Death certificates listing ICD-10 M82 (osteoporosis with pathological fracture) as an underlying or related cause of death were analyzed. Epidemiological data were analyzed, and the ASMR data were calculated for each year, and trends were assessed using the Cochran-Armitage trend test.ResultsFrom 1999 to 2020, there were 40,441 deaths related to osteoporosis with pathological fractures in the United States, with a female-to-male ratio of 5.6:1. Among these, 12,820 deaths (31.7%) listed osteoporosis with pathological fractures as the underlying cause of death (UCD), yielding a female-to-male ASMR ratio of approximately 5.0-7.7:1. When classified as a non-UCD, the ASMR ratio was approximately 4.8–6.2:1. At the same time, we found that the total number of deaths classified as UCD and multiple causes of death (MCD), but the trend ratio of the two groups in different years did not change statistically significant (P > 0.05), and the ASMR of both groups showed a downward trend. The UCD-to-MCD ratio increased between 1999 and 2007, then decreased from 2007 to 2020. As MCD, the number of female deaths was more than that of male, and both showed a decreasing trend, but there was no statistical significance in the change of trend ratio in different years (P > 0.05). Deaths were predominantly concentrated in individuals over 75 years of age, with those over 84 years being the most affected. The number of deaths in different age groups showed a decreasing trend, and the change of trend ratio in different years was statistically significant (P < 0.05). White individuals had the highest number of deaths. The leading causes of death were heart diseases, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and alzheimer’s disease. In addition, the number of deaths of patients with prostate cancer and breast cancer showed a significant downward trend, and the change of trend ratio between the two groups in different years was statistically significant (P < 0.05).ConclusionsAlthough mortality from osteoporosis with pathological fractures is decreasing, anti-osteoporosis therapy remains essential for elderly patients. Healthcare providers should remain vigilant for potential complications, including malignant neoplasms, and ensure timely diagnosis and treatment to further reduce mortality in this population.

Burden of gastrointestinal cancers among working-age population over past thirty years in China.

Although gastrointestinal (GI) cancers have been becoming a great public health concern in China, there is currently a lack of comprehensive literature on the overall burden and changing trends of GI cancers in the working-age population. To assess the burden of GI cancers and to examine the overall, age- and gender-specific trends among the working-age population in China from 1990 to 2019. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The burden of GI cancers was indicated by incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate. Trends in the burden of GI cancers from 1990 to 2019 were examined using annual percent change and average annual percent change with Joinpoint regression models. For overall GI cancers, a declining trend was observed in the ASIR, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate, with reductions of 0.74%, 2.23%, and 2.22%, respectively, from 1999 to 2019 in the Chinese working-age population. However, an increasing trend was observed in the ASIR for overall GI cancers from 2016-2019. The number of either incident cases, mortality cases, and DALYs was higher for colon/rectum cancer and liver cancer in younger participants but lower for esophageal, gallbladder, biliary tract, pancreatic, and stomach cancer among older subjects. Moreover, sex disparity in the GI cancers burden was also examined over 30 years. The total burden of GI cancers remained heavy among the working-age population in China, although declining trends were observed from 1999 to 2019. Disparities in the GI cancers burden existed between sexes, age groups, and cancer types. Population-based precision prevention strategies are needed to tackle GI cancers among working-age individuals, considering the age, sex, and cancer type disparities in China.

A global analysis of the burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to diet low in fiber between 1990 and 2019

AimIschemic heart disease (IHD) represents a major cardiovascular condition heavily influenced by dietary factors. This study endeavors to assess the global, regional, and temporal impact of low-fiber diets on the burden of IHD.MethodLeveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, we analyzed the worldwide burden of IHD resulting from diet low in fiber using indices including death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). This burden was further segmented based on variables including regions and countries. To track the evolution from 1990 to 2019, we utilized the Joinpoint regression model to estimate the temporal trend of IHD burden stemming from low-fiber diets.ResultsIn 2019, a total of 348.85 thousand (95%UI: 147.57, 568.31) deaths and 7942.96 thousand (95%UI: 3373.58,12978.29) DALY (95% UI: 707.88, 1818) of IHD were attributed to diet low in fiber globally. These figures correspond to 3.82% of all IHD deaths and 4.36% of total IHD DALYs. The age-standardized death and DALY rates per 100,000 individuals were 4.48 (95% UI: 1.90,7.27) and 97.4(95%UI: 41.44, 158.88) respectively. However, significant regional disparities emerged in these age-standardized rates, with South Asia and Central Asia experiencing the highest rates. Between 1990 and 2019, we observed that most regions displayed a downward trend of the age-standardized DALY and death rate of IHD resulting from low-fiber diets, except for Central Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa.ConclusionOur analysis underscores the substantial toll of IHD associated with low-fiber diets, particularly considering the significant regional variations. Therefore, it is imperative to sustain efforts to implement effective measures aimed at enhancing fiber intake worldwide, particularly in countries with lower socio-demographic indices.

Global burden of cardiovascular diseases: projections from 2025 to 2050.

The prediction of future trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and their risk factors can assist policy-makers in healthcare planning. This study aims to project geospatial trends in CVDs and their underlying risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Using historical data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, encompassing the period of 1990 to 2019, Poisson regression was performed to model mortality and DALYs associated with CVD and its associated risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Subgroup analysis was based on GBD super-regions. Between 2025 and 2050, a 90.0% increase in cardiovascular prevalence, 73.4% increase in crude mortality, and 54.7% increase in crude DALYs are projected, with an expected 35.6 million cardiovascular deaths in 2050 (from 20.5 million in 2025). However, age-standardized cardiovascular prevalence will be relatively constant (-3.6%), with decreasing age-standardized mortality (-30.5%) and age-standardized DALYs (-29.6%). In 2050, ischaemic heart disease will remain the leading cause of cardiovascular deaths (20 million deaths) while high systolic blood pressure will be the main cardiovascular risk factor driving mortality (18.9 million deaths). Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia super-region is set to incur the highest age-standardized cardiovascular mortality rate in 2050 (305 deaths per 100 000 population). In the coming decades, the relatively constant age-standardized prevalence of global CVD suggests that the net effect of summative preventative efforts will likely continue to be unchanged. The fall in age-standardized cardiovascular mortality reflects the improvement in medical care following diagnosis. However, future healthcare systems can expect a rapid rise in crude cardiovascular mortality, driven by the ageing global populace. The continued rise in CVD burden will largely be attributed to atherosclerotic diseases. Not applicable.

Global patterns of syphilis, gonococcal infection, typhoid fever, paratyphoid fever, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and leprosy from 1990 to 2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundCertain infectious diseases are caused by specific bacterial pathogens, including syphilis, gonorrhea, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, leprosy, and tuberculosis. These diseases significantly impact global health, contributing heavily to the disease burden. The study aims to thoroughly evaluate the global burden of syphilis, gonorrhea, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and leprosy.MethodsLeveraging the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, age-specific and Socio-demographic Index (SDI)-specific incidence, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and death for eight specific bacterial infections across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed. Percentage changes in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), DALY rate, and mortality rate (ASMR) were also examined, with a focus on disease distribution across different regions, age groups, genders, and SDI.ResultsBy 2021, among the eight diseases, gonococcal infection had the highest global ASIR [1096.58 per 100,000 population, 95% uncertainty interval (UI): 838.70, 1385.47 per 100,000 population], and syphilis had the highest global age-standardized DALY rate (107.13 per 100,000 population, 95% UI: 41.77, 212.12 per 100,000 population). Except for syphilis and gonococcal infection, the age-standardized DALY rate of the remaining diseases decreased by at least 55% compared to 1990, with tetanus showing the largest decrease by at least 90%. Globally, significant declines in the ASIR, age-standardized DALY rate, and ASMR for these eight bacterial infections have been observed in association with increases in the SDI. Regions with lower SDI, such as sub-Saharan Africa, experienced a relatively higher burden of these eight bacterial infections.ConclusionsAlthough there has been an overall decline in these eight diseases, they continue to pose significant public health challenges, particularly in low SDI regions. To further reduce this burden in these areas, targeted intervention strategies are essential, including multi-sectoral collaboration, policy support, improved WASH management, and enhanced research efforts.Graphical

Tendência da taxa de mortalidade por sepse em Minas Gerais entre 2010 e 2023: um estudo ecológico

Sepsis is a critical condition with high mortality, responsible for approximately 11 million deaths annually worldwide and 20% of deaths in Brazil. Between 2010 and 2019, Brazil recorded over 1 million cases and around 463,000 deaths due to sepsis, with the highest mortality in the Southeast region. This ecological study analyzed the age-standardized mortality rate for sepsis in Minas Gerais from 2010 to 2023, using data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Prais-Winsten linear regression was applied to identify trends, and the correlation between the age-standardized mortality rate for sepsis (TPMS) and the Social Development Index (SDI) was investigated. Results showed a significant increase in sepsis mortality, with the rate rising from 9.16 in 2010 to 17.98 in 2023, reflecting an Annual Percentage Variation (APV) of 12.86%. The analysis revealed a growing trend with an R² of 0.9600. The positive correlation between TPMS and SDI indicates that regions with higher social development may have higher mortality rates due to better diagnostic capabilities, rather than worse health conditions. The study highlights the urgent need for targeted interventions, such as awareness programs and improvements in sepsis management. Public health strategies focused on prevention, early diagnosis, and effective treatment are essential to mitigate the impact of sepsis and improve clinical outcomes in the region.

Global burden of thyroid cancer in 2022: Incidence and mortality estimates from GLOBOCAN.

Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignancy of the endocrine system. This study aimed to assess the global distribution of TC incidence and mortality in 2022, as well as to predict the burden for the year 2050. Data from the GLOBOCAN 2022database were used to analyze the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TC by sex, age group (<55 years and ≥55 years), country, world region, and level of Human Development Index (HDI) for 185 countries. The predicted incidence and mortality burden for 2050 was calculated based on demographic projections. In 2022, an estimated 821,214 new TC cases and 47,507 TC-related deaths occurred worldwide. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were higher in women (ASIR: 13.60 per 100,000; ASMR: 0.53 per 100,000) than in men (ASIR: 4.60 per 100,000; ASMR: 0.35 per 100,000). The ASIR in high HDI countries was approximately ten times higher than that in low HDI countries for both sexes, with relatively similar ASMR across regions. Among 185 countries, China had the largest number of TC cases (accounting for 56.77% of total cases) and TC-related deaths (accounting for 24.35% of global TC-related deaths), with the highest ASIR in men (13.30 per 100,000). Worldwide, approximately 64.63% of TC cases occurred in populations under 55 years old, while nearly 82.99% of TC-related deaths occurred in populations aged 55 years and above. If the rates stay the same as in 2022, it is projected that approximately 1,100,000 new TC cases and 91,000 TC-related deaths will occur in 2050, indicating a 34.15% and 89.58% increase, respectively. TC is a highly frequent cancer worldwide with disparities across regions, genders, and age groups. Our results provide light on the worldwide TC disease burden and facilitate regionally customized prevention measures.

Multinational trends in sepsis mortality between 1985 and 2019: a temporal analysis of the WHO Mortality Database

ObjectivesUnderstanding the burden of disease of sepsis is essential for monitoring the effectiveness of international strategies to improve sepsis care. Our objective was to describe the multinational trend of sepsis-related...

The impact of overweight and obesity on health outcomes in the United States from 1990 to 2021.

Elevated body mass index (BMI) presents a significant public health challenge in the United States, contributing to considerable morbidity, mortality and economic burden. This study investigates the health burden of overweight and obesity in the United States from 1990 to 2021, leveraging the Global Burden of Disease data set to analyse trends, disparities and potential determinants of high BMI-related health outcomes. Our study focused on the United States, analysing trends in disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and deaths attributable to high BMI, defined as a BMI of 25 kg/m2 or higher for adults. Statistical analyses included estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in age-standardized DALY rates and age-standardized death rates. Pearson correlation was performed between EAPCs and the socio-demographic index (SDI), with significance set at p < 0.05. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized DALY rates attributable to high BMI increased by 24.9%, whereas the age-standardized death rates increased by 5.2%. Age disparities showed DALYs peaking at 60-64 years for males and 65-69 years for females, with deaths peaking at 65-69 years for males and 90-94 years for females. A strong negative correlation was found between the EAPC in age-standardized DALY and death rates and the SDI. Overweight and obesity significantly impact public health in the United States, especially among older adults and lower socio-demographic regions. Comprehensive public health strategies integrating behavioural, technological and environmental interventions are crucial. Future research should focus on longitudinal studies, personalized interventions and policy-driven approaches to address the multifaceted influences on high BMI.

Burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to high temperature in a changing climate from 1990 to 2019: a global analysis

BackgroundWith global climate change, the health threats of ambient high temperature have received widespread attention. However, latest spatio-temporal patterns of the non-communicable diseases (NCDs) burden attributable to high temperature have not been systematically reported. We aimed to analyze vulnerable areas and populations based on a detailed profile for the NCDs burden attributable to high temperature globally.MethodsWe obtained data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study (2019) to describe the temporal and spatial patterns of NCDs burden attributable to high temperature globally from 1990–2019. Then we analyzed the differences by region, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Finally, the age‑period‑cohort (APC) model was utilized to explore the age, period, and cohort effects of NCDs mortality caused by high temperature.ResultsIn 2019, the number of deaths and Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from high-temperature-related NCDs was about 150,000 and 3.4 million globally, of which about 70% were in South Asia and North Africa and Middle East, and the burden was higher in men. Among 204 countries and territories, the highest age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) were observed in Oman and United Arab Emirates, respectively. The global burden showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2019, with an EAPC of 3.66 (95%CI: 3.14–4.18) for ASMR and 3.68 (95%CI: 3.16-4.21) for ASDR. Cardiovascular diseases were the main contributors to the global burden of high-temperature-related NCDs in 2019. The age and period effect in APC model showed an increasing trend globally. There was a significant negative correlation between SDI and both ASMR (r = -0.17) and ASDR (r = -0.20) from 1990 to 2019.ConclusionThere was an increasing trend of the global burden of high-temperature-related NCDs. The burden was likely to be higher in males and the elderly, as well as in countries and regions with less economically and socially developed and in tropical climates. Surveillance and prevention measures should be implemented with a focus on these vulnerable areas and susceptible populations.

Global, regional, and national burden of acute myeloid leukemia, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021

BackgroundAcute myeloid leukemia (AML), as the most common subtype of leukemia in adults, is characterised by rapid progression and poor prognosis. In the context of the rapid development of medical technology and the complexity of social factors, a detailed report describing the latest epidemiological patterns of AML is important for decision makers to allocate healthcare resources effectively.MethodsOur research utilized the latest data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021. To delineate the burden of AML, we comprehensively described the incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and the associated age-standardized rates per 100,000 persons (ASR) spanning from 1990 to 2021 stratifies according to age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and nationality. Additionally, we extracted and analyzed data about the risk factors that contribute to AML-related deaths and DALYs.ResultsAccording to our study, the incidence of AML has continued to rise globally from 79,372 in 1990 to 144,645 in 2021 and AML affected the male and the elderly populations disproportionately. Furthermore, there was a significant positive correlation between the burden of AML and the SDI value. Developed nations generally exhibited higher age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized death rate, and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate than the developing nations. We also analyzed the prevalence of smoking, high body mass index, and occupational benzene and formaldehyde exposure in the AML population in different SDI regions. Moreover, smoking and high body mass index were more prevalent in developed countries, whereas occupational exposure to these chemicals was the predominant risk factor in developing countries.ConclusionThe global burden of AML has increased over the past 32 years, with rising morbidity and mortality. The incidence of AML is differentially distributed across different SDI countries or regions. AML incidence is higher in the elderly and in men. The proportions of smoking, high body mass index, and occupational exposure to benzene and formaldehyde varied by region. The findings highlight the need for region-specific prevention and call for future research on preventive strategies and new treatments to lower AML incidence and improve patient outcomes.

Dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol: a joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort analysis with predictions

AimsThe purpose of this study was to analyze the dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C).MethodsData on IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the global disease burden database. Joinpoint software was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). An age‒period‒cohort model was used to analyze the impacts of age, period, and cohort on these changes. The Bayesian framework was used to predict IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 2022 to 2040.ResultsThe overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C decreased from 50. 479 per 100,000 people in 1990 to 32.286 per 100,000 people in 2021, and ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C was higher in males than in females. The longitudinal age curves of the overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a monotonic upward trend, especially after 65 years of age. The period and cohort effect relative risk (RR) values of overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a downward trend. The overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C is predicted to show a downward trend, and male IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C is expected to be higher than that of females.ConclusionThis study revealed a sustained decrease in IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C over three decades, with a continued decline expected. Despite this, gender disparities persist, with males experiencing higher mortality rates and elderly individuals remaining a vulnerable group.

Trends in deaths and disability-adjusted life-years of ischemic heart disease attributable to high body-mass index worldwide, 1990–2019

BackgroundThe objective of this study is to evaluate the global burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) attributable to High body mass index (HBMI) by utilizing data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019.MethodsThis study utilized data from the GBD 2019 to examine the impact of HBMI on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The analysis focused on age-standardized rates and considered a 30-year time frame. Trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs).ResultsSince 1990, a significant global increase in IHD attributable to HBMI has been observed. This increase is particularly notable among elderly males and in regions with low-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), such as Central Asia and Eastern Europe. In 2019, IHD globally resulted in 1,662,339 deaths and 41,369,773 DALYs. Despite the high age-standardized death rate (20.73 per 100,000) and DALY rate (499.41 per 100,000), a declining trend was noted. This trend is reflected by the EAPCs of -0.35 for DALYs and − 0.67 for deaths. Notably, males and middle SDI countries exhibited higher rates of IHD, whereas high SDI regions such as High-income Asia Pacific and Western Europe showed decreasing trends in IHD.ConclusionOver the past three decades, there has been a significant increase in IHD caused by HBMI, especially in low-middle and low SDI regions. This highlights the importance of targeted interventions in addressing this issue. Notably, regions including Central Asia, Eastern Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East have been heavily affected.

Global Suicide Mortality Rates (2000-2019): Clustering, Themes, and Causes Analyzed through Machine Learning and Bibliographic Data.

Suicide research is directed at understanding social, economic, and biological causes of suicide thoughts and behaviors. (1) Background: Worldwide, certain countries have high suicide mortality rates (SMRs) compared to others. Age-standardized suicide mortality rates (SMRs) published by the World Health Organization (WHO) plus numerous bibliographic records of the Web of Science (WoS) database provide resources to understand these disparities between countries and regions. (2) Methods: Hierarchical clustering was applied to age-standardized suicide mortality rates per 100,000 population from 2000-2019. Keywords of country-specific suicide-related publications collected from WoS were analyzed by network and association rule mining. Keyword embedding was carried out using a recurrent neural network. (3) Results: Countries with similar SMR trends formed naturally distinct groups of high, medium, and low suicide mortality rates. Major themes in suicide research worldwide are depression, mental disorders, youth suicide, euthanasia, hopelessness, loneliness, unemployment, and drugs. Prominent themes differentiating countries and regions include: alcohol in post-Soviet countries; HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa, war veterans and PTSD in the Middle East, students in East Asia, and many others. (4) Conclusion: Countries naturally group into high, medium, and low SMR categories characterized by different keyword-informed themes. The compiled dataset and presented methodology enable enrichment of analytical results by bibliographic data where observed results are difficult to interpret.

Trends in the incidence and mortality of cervical, ovarian, and corpus uteri cancers in Wales, UK: A joinpoint regression analysis from 2002 to 2021

ObjectivesThe primary objective of this study was to examine the secular trends of cervical, ovarian, and corpus uteri neoplasm in Wales, UK, over the period from 2002 to 2021. We aimed to identify changes in the incidence and mortality rates of these cancers to inform future healthcare policies and cancer prevention programs. MethodsWe sourced incidence data from 2002 to 2019 and mortality data from 2002 to 2021 from the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit. The data were analysed using Joinpoint regression to compute the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 population for each type of cancer. ResultsThe results showed that the ASIR for cervical cancer remained stable between 2002 and 2019 (AAPC = −0.5; 95 %CI = −1.4–0.4). However, the ASMR significantly declined from 4.88 in 2002–3.03 in 2021 (AAPC = −2.3; 95 %CI = −3.4 to −1.1). The ASIR for ovarian cancer significantly decreased from 27.39 in 2002–17.87 in 2019 (AAPC = −2.6; 95 %CI = −3.0 to −2.1), and the ASMR showed a statistically significant decreasing trend from 15.92 in 2002–11.2 in 2021 (AAPC = −1.7; 95 %CI = −2.5 to −0.9). In contrast, the ASIR for corpus uteri neoplasm significantly increased from 22.24 in 2002–30.41 in 2019 (AAPC = 2.2; 95 %CI = 1.2–3.4), and ASMR also showed a statistically significant increasing trend from 3.27 in 2002–6.42 in 2021 (AAPC = 3.8; 95 %CI = 2.3–5.3). ConclusionsThe study concludes that while the incidence and mortality rates for cervical and ovarian cancers in Wales have significantly decreased, corpus uteri neoplasm rates have increased during the study period. These findings underscore the need for continued efforts to improve early detection and treatment strategies, including national screening programs and public health initiatives, to mitigate the burden of these cancers.

Temporal Mortality Trends Attributable to Stroke in South Asia: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

South Asia contributes the most to stroke mortality worldwide. This study aimed to determine the long-term trends in stroke mortality across four South Asian countries and its associations with age, period, and birth cohort. In 2019, nearly one million stroke deaths occurred across South Asia, and the associated age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 80.2 per 100,000. Between 1990 and 2019, India had the largest decrease in the ASMR (-35.8%) across the four South Asian countries. While Pakistan had the smallest decrease in the ASMR (-7.6%), an increase was detected among males aged 15 to 34 years and females aged 15 to 19 years. Despite a 22.8% decrease in the ASMR, Bangladesh had the highest ASMR across the four South Asian countries. Nepal reported a witness increase in the stroke ASMR after 2006. Improved period and cohort effects on stroke mortality were generally indicated across the analyzed countries, except for recent-period effects in males from Nepal and cohort effects from those born after the 1970s in Pakistan. Stroke mortality has decreased in the four South Asian countries over the past 30 years, but potentially unfavorable period and cohort effects have emerged in males in Nepal and both sexes in Pakistan. Governmental and societal efforts are needed to maintain decreasing trends in stroke mortality.

Global, regional, and national burden of inflammatory bowel disease, 1990–2021: Insights from the global burden of disease 2021

PurposeThe prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is on the rise worldwide. We utilizes data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021 to analyze the national-level burden of IBD, trends in disease incidence, and epidemiological characteristics.MethodsDetailed information on IBD was gathered from 204 countries and territories spanning 1990 to 2021, sourced from the GBD 2021. Calculations were performed for incidence rates, mortality rates, disease-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). These trends were analyzed based on region, nationality, age, gender, and World Bank income level stratifications.ResultsThe global age-standardised incident rate (ASIR) of IBD increased from 4.22 per 100000 in 1990 to 4.45 per 100000 in 2021. However, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 0.60 per 100000 in 1990 to 0.52 per 100000 in 2021. Similarly, the age-standardised DALYs rate decreased from 21.55 per 100000 in 1990 to 18.07 per 100000 in 2021. Gender comparisons showed negligible differences in disease burden. The greatest increase in IBD-associated ASIR and ASMR occurred in World Bank upper-middle income region (EAPCs, 1.25) and World Bank high-income region (EAPCs, 1.00), respectively. Regionally, East Asia experienced the largest increase in ASIR (EAPCs, 2.89). Among 204 countries, China had the greatest increases in ASIR (EAPCs, 2.93), Netherlands had the highest ASMR in 2021 (2.21 per 100000).ConclusionsGlobal incidence rate of IBD have been increasing from 1990 to 2021, while the DALYs and mortality have been decreasing. The escalating incident rates in select Asian regions deserves further attention.

Heart disease and heart failure: Trends and disparities in mortality rates in the United States from 2000 to 2020

Study objectiveTo describe the age, sex and racial disparities in mortality rates for heart disease (HD) and heart failure (HF) in the United States (US) between 2000 and 2020. DesignThis was an ecological study with trend analysis of mortality rates. SettingUnited States. ParticipantsAdults aged 18 years and above. Main outcomes measuresMortality rates per 100,000 for HD and HF. ResultsThere was a significant decrease in the age-standardized mortality rate for HD over the past two decades (from 343.5 per 100,000 cases to 215.1 per 100,000 cases, p < 0.001). HD mortality rates were significantly higher in males (p < 0.001), non-Hispanic blacks (p < 0.001) and in adults aged 65+ (p < 0.001) and 75+ (p < 0.001). There was no significant change in the age-standardized mortality rate for HF (from 26.9 per 100,000 cases to 25.7 per 100,000 cases (p = 0.706)) due to a reversal in the trend beyond 2011. Though the HF mortality rates were significantly lower in males (p = 0.001), and not significantly different in non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic whites, there were shifts in trends beyond 2016, with higher rates in males and in non-Hispanic blacks compared to non-Hispanic whites. ConclusionsIn summary, this study underscores significant reductions in heart disease mortality rates over the past two decades, alongside persistent disparities among different demographic groups. It also highlights emerging trends in heart failure mortality rates in particular population subgroups in recent years, necessitating further exploration to inform targeted interventions and policies.

Global, regional, and national burden of intracerebral hemorrhage and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2021: results from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study

BackgroundIntracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) results from the rupture of blood vessels causing bleeding within the brain and is one of the major causes of death and long-term disability globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Despite having a lower incidence than ischemic stroke, ICH imposes a greater social and economic burden. To our knowledge, since the release of the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) report, there has been no comprehensive update on the epidemiology and trends of ICH. This study aims to analyze the impact of gender, age, and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) on the burden of ICH at global, regional, and national levels.MethodsData on the incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ICH and its related risk factors from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021 project, encompassing 203 countries and regions. Furthermore, temporal trends of the global intracerebral hemorrhage burden were assessed through Joinpoint analysis.ResultsIn 2021, there were 3.444 million new cases of ICH worldwide, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 40.8 per 100,000 people, representing a 31.4% decrease compared to 1990. In 2021, ICH caused 3.308 million deaths, with an age-standardized mortality rate of 39.1 per 100,000 people, a reduction of 36.6% since 1990. Globally, ICH accounted for 79.457 million DALYs, with an age-standardized DALY rate of 92.4 per 100,000 people, representing a 39.1% decrease since 1990. Regionally, Central Asia, Oceania, and Southeast Asia had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates of ICH, whereas Australasia, high-income North America, and Western Europe had the lowest rates. Nationally, the Solomon Islands, Mongolia, and Kiribati had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates, whereas Switzerland, New Zealand, and Australia had the lowest. Hypertension, smoking, and environmental pollution were identified as the primary risk factors for ICH. This study also validated the significant association between SDI and the burden of ICH, with the age-standardized DALY rate of ICH decreasing significantly as SDI increased.ConclusionDespite the decreasing burden of intracerebral hemorrhage, it remains a significant public health issue in countries with a lower SDI. Prevention strategies should prioritize hypertension management, air quality improvement, and smoking control to further mitigate the impact of intracerebral hemorrhage.