Age-standardized Cancer Incidence Rates Research Articles

Incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in 50 countries: a joinpoint regression analysis of global trends.

To evaluate the incidence and mortality trend of thyroid cancer, and compare its global incidence trends among different countries by age group and sex. Data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rate of thyroid cancer among 50 countries were collected from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volume XI; the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER), the National Cancer Institute; the Nordic Cancer Registries (NORDCAN), and the WHO mortality database. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) of the incidence and mortality trends was calculated by joinpoint regression analysis. The age-standardized incidence of thyroid cancer was 3.1 and 10.1 cases per 100,000 persons in men and women, respectively. The incidence of thyroid cancer increased in most countries among individuals irrespective of age groups, and increased in populations aged <40 years in several countries, including Korea (male: AAPC 25.3, 95% C.I. 22.3-28.4, p < 0.001; female: AAPC 18.5, 95% C.I. 16.2-20.9, p < 0.001), Poland (male: AAPC 19.1, 95% C.I. 1.4-39.7, p = 0.036; female: AAPC 13.7, 95% C.I. 7.6-20.2), and China (male: AAPC 18.6, 95% C.I. 12.1-25.5, p < 0.001; female: AAPC 13.3, 95%C.I. 11.5-15.1, p < 0.001). An increasing incidence of thyroid cancer was observed in younger subjects in a majority of countries, highlighting the need for more preventive strategies in this population and possible avoidance of over-diagnosis.

Burden of Lung Cancer in China, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Lung cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors in the world. It has become an increasingly important public health problem in China. In this study, we systematically assessed the lung cancer situation in China from 1990 to 2019 and provided an epidemiological knowledge base for the revision of health policies. The relevant data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Based on GBD 2019 data, we evaluated the incidence, prevalence, and death rates of lung cancer in China and their change trends from 1990 to 2019, making comparisons by gender and age. The age-standardized incidence and death rates (ASIR and ASDR, respectively) of lung cancer in China were higher than the average levels in Asia, Africa, Europe, and Oceania and also higher than those of neighboring Asian countries. Lung cancer rose from the seventh leading cause of death in 1990 to the fourth leading one in 2019, indicating that the disease burden of lung cancer is increasing. In 2019, the incidence, prevalence, and death rates of lung cancer were all higher in men than in women across all age groups. All three indices were lower in men and women <50years old than in men and women >50years. From 1990 to 2019, the ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and ASDR showed trends of increase (P < .05), and the rise in the ASPR (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 1.9) was greater than those in the ASIR (AAPC = 1) and ASDR (AAPC = .8). From 1990 to 2019, the incidence, prevalence, and death rates of lung cancer continued to increase in China. To reduce this burden, prevention and management of known risk factors should be promoted through national policies.

Estimating the effect of HIV on cervical cancer elimination in South Africa: Comparative modelling of the impact of vaccination and screening.

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched its initiative to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To inform global efforts for countries with high HIV and cervical cancer burden, we assessed the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical cancer screening and treatment in South Africa, on cervical cancer and the potential for achieving elimination before 2120, considering faster HPV disease progression and higher cervical cancer risk among women living with HIV(WLHIV) and HIV interventions. Three independent transmission-dynamic models simulating HIV and HPV infections and disease progression were used to predict the impact on cervical cancer incidence of three scenarios for all women: 1) girls' vaccination (9-14 years old), 2) girls' vaccination plus 1 lifetime cervical screen (at 35 years), and 3) girls' vaccination plus 2 lifetime cervical screens (at 35 and 45 years) and three enhanced scenarios for WLHIV: 4) vaccination of young WLHIV aged 15-24 years, 5) three-yearly cervical screening of WLHIV aged 15-49 years, or 6) both. Vaccination assumed 90% coverage and 100% lifetime protection with the nonavalent vaccine (against HPV-16/18/31/33/45/52/58). Cervical cancer screening assumed HPV testing with uptake increasing from 45% (2023), 70% (2030) to 90% (2045+). We also assumed that UNAIDS 90-90-90 HIV treatment and 70% male circumcision targets are reached by 2030. We examined three elimination thresholds: age-standardised cervical cancer incidence rates below 4 or 10 per 100,000 women-years, and >85% reduction in cervical cancer incidence rate. We conducted sensitivity analyses and presented the median age-standardised predictions of outcomes of the three models (minimum-maximum across models). Girls' vaccination could reduce age-standardised cervical cancer incidence from a median of 47.6 (40.9-79.2) in 2020 to 4.5 (3.2-6.3) per 100,000 women-years by 2120, averting on average ∼4% and ∼46% of age-standardised cumulative cervical cancer cases over 25 and 100 years, respectively, compared to the basecase. Adding 2 lifetime screens helped achieve elimination over the century among all women (2120 cervical cancer incidence: 3.6 (1.9-3.6) per 100,000 women-years), but not among WLHIV (10.8 (5.3-11.6)), and averted more cumulative cancer cases overall (∼45% over 25 years and ∼61% over 100 years compared to basecase) than girls' vaccination alone. Adding three-yearly cervical screening among WLHIV (to girls' vaccination and 2 lifetime cervical screens) further reduced age-standardised cervical cancer incidence to 3.3 (1.8-3.6) per 100,000 women-years overall and to 5.2 (3.9-8.5) among WLHIV by 2120 and averted on average 12-13% additional cumulative cancer cases among all women and 21-24% among WLHIV than girls' vaccination and 2 lifetime cervical screens over 25 years or longer. Long-term vaccine protection and using the nonavalent vaccine was required for elimination. High HPV vaccination coverage of girls and 2 lifetime cervical screens could eliminate cervical cancer among women overall in South Africa by the end of the century and substantially decrease cases among all women and WLHIV over the short and medium term. Cervical cancer elimination in WLHIV would likely require enhanced prevention strategies for WLHIV. Screening of WLHIV remains an important strategy to reduce incidence and alleviate disparities in cervical cancer burden between women with and without HIV, despite HIV interventions scale-up. World Health Organization. National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, UK Medical Research Council. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development research. Cancer Association of South Africa. Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Fonds de recherche du Québec - Santé research.

The Impact of Environmental Factors on Skin Cancer

Background: Skin cancer, as one of the most common cancers, is partly associated with environmental conditions. Objectives: The main purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of environmental factors on the incidence of skin cancer. Methods: The dataset contains the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of skin cancer in all provinces of Iran during a six-year period of time. Also, there were meteorological variables for a 29-year period for the provinces. We used the mean of meteorological variables for the 29-year period for each province as predictors. The ASR of skin cancer in each province in six years was considered as the response variable. Also, gender, latitude, altitude, wind speed, relative humidity, cloudy hours duration, and maximum air temperature in each province were considered independent variables. A mixed effects polynomial regression model was applied to data analysis. Results: Based on the applied model, the trend of ASR of skin cancer in different provinces was statistically significant (P &lt; 0.001). The ASR of skin cancer for males was more than the females (P &lt; 0.001). Furthermore, the positive linear effect of latitude was significant (P = 0.002). However, the quadratic term showed a deceleration in the growth rate of skin cancer incidence with increasing latitude. Furthermore, there was a positive significant impact of altitude on skin cancer incidence (P = 0.045). Conclusions: Health policymakers in their prevention planning should consider geographical conditions as influencing factors on skin cancer incidence. Moreover, men should be given more attention as the main group at risk for this cancer.

Temporal Trends and Projections of Bladder Cancer Burden in China from 1990 to 2030: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Identifying disease burden and risk factors of bladder cancer and projecting its epidemiological trend in China, which can provide reference data to formulate measures for its management and prevention. We analyzed the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) data of bladder cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and predicted to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We also estimated the proportion of risk factors contributing to bladder cancer DALYs. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) in both sexes was calculated to quantify the temporal trends. In China, the age-standardized incidence rate of bladder cancer increased from 3.3/100,000 in 1990 to 5.16/100,000 in 2019 (AAPC of 1.47), while the age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALYs rate declined slightly (AAPC of -0.58 and -0.65, respectively). The burden of bladder cancer increased with age, which reached a peak over 85 years old. The main risk factor for bladder cancer was smoking, and the contribution of high fasting plasma glucose increased from 1990 to 2019, with an AAPC of 0.85 in males and 0.61 in females. We predicted total incident cases, deaths and DALYs will increase to 150,372 and 53,520 and 1043,688 in 2030, respectively. The disease burden of bladder cancer in males will consistently higher than that in females from 2020 to 2030. Although mortality and DALYs rates showed downward trends, the disease burden remained heavy in China at present. More effective and long-term health policies are needed to develop for early prevention and treatment of bladder cancer.

Predicting the burden of cancer in Switzerland up to 2025.

Predicting the short-term evolution of the number of cancers is essential for planning investments and allocating health resources. The objective of this study was to predict the numbers of cancer cases and of the 12 most frequent cancer sites, and their age-standardized incidence rates, for the years 2019-2025 in Switzerland. Projections of the number of malignant cancer cases were obtained by combining data from two sources: forecasts of national age-standardized cancer incidence rates and population projections from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Age-standardized cancer incidence rates, approximating the individual cancer risk, were predicted by a low-order Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The contributions of changes in cancer risk (epidemiological component) and population aging and growth (demographic components) to the projected number of new cancer cases were each quantified. Between 2018 and 2025, age-standardized cancer incidence rates are predicted to stabilize for men and women at around 426 and 328/100,000, respectively (<1% change). These projected trends are expected for most cancer sites. The annual number of cancers is expected to increase from 45,676 to 52,552 (+15%), more so for men (+18%) than for women (+11%). These increases are almost entirely due to projected changes in population age structure (+12% for men and +6% for women) and population growth (+6% for both sexes). The rise in numbers of expected cancers for each site is forecast to range from 4.15% (thyroid in men) to 26% (bladder in men). While ranking of the three most frequent cancers will remain unchanged for men (1st prostate, 2nd lung, 3rd colon-rectum), colorectal cancer will overtake by 2025 lung cancer as the second most common female cancer in Switzerland, behind breast cancer. Effective and sustained prevention measures, as well as infrastructural interventions, are required to counter the increase in cancer cases and prevent any potential shortage of professionals in cancer care delivery.

Prostate cancer incidence among immigrant men in Ontario, Canada: a population-based retrospective cohort study.

Prostate cancer incidence has been associated with various sociodemographic factors, such as race, income and age, but the association with immigrant status in Canada is unclear. In this population-based study in Ontario, Canada, we compared age-standardized incidence rates for immigrant males from various regions of origin with the rates of long-term residents. In this retrospective cohort study, we linked several provincial-level databases available at ICES, an independent, non-profit research institute. We included all males aged 20 years and older in the province of Ontario eligible for health care for each fiscal year (Apr. 1 to Mar. 31) in 2008-2016. We determined age-standardized prostate cancer incidence rates, stratifying by immigrant status (a binary variable) and region of origin. We used a log-binomial model to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios, with long-term residents (Canadian-born Ontarians as well as those who immigrated before 1985, when available data on immigration starts) as the reference group. We included age, neighbourhood income and time since landing in the models. Additional models limited to immigrant males in the cohort included immigration admission category (economic class, family class, refugee, other) and time since landing in Canada. There were 74594 incident cases of prostate cancer in the study period, 6742 of which were among immigrant males. Males who had immigrated from West Africa and the Caribbean had significantly higher incidence of prostate cancer than other immigrants and long-term residents: adjusted rate ratios of 2.71 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.41-3.05) and 1.91 (95% CI 1.78-2.04), respectively. Immigrants from other regions, including East Africa and Middle-Southern Africa, had lower or similar incidence rates to long-term residents. Males from South Asia had the lowest adjusted rate ratio (0.47, 95% CI 0.45-0.50). The age-standardized incidence rate of prostate cancer from 2008 to 2016 was consistently and significantly higher among immigrants from West African and Caribbean countries than among other immigrants and long-term residents of the province. Future research in Canada should focus on further understanding heterogeneity in prostate cancer risk and epidemiology, including stage of diagnosis and mortality, for immigrants.

Trends and risk of lung cancer among people living with HIV in the USA: a population-based registry linkage study

Lung cancer is a common cancer in people living with HIV, but the risk of cancer in this group has not been investigated for over a decade. We investigated trends in relative and absolute risk of lung cancer among people living with HIV of various age groups in the USA. In this population-based registry linkage study, we used 2001-16 data from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match study, which links data from HIV and cancer registries from 13 regions in the USA. We included non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic individuals living with HIV aged 20-89 years in our study population. Average annual percentage changes in lung cancer rates were estimated with multivariable Poisson regression, and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) and excess absolute risks were estimated comparing people living with HIV with the general US population. We used non-parametric cumulative incidence curves to estimate the 5-year cumulative incidence of lung cancer and two AIDS-defining cancers (non-Hodgkin lymphoma and Kaposi sarcoma). There were 3426 lung cancers in 4 310 304 person-years of follow-up in our study population. Age-standardised lung cancer incidence rates in people living with HIV declined by 6% per year (95% CI -7 to -5) during 2001-16, with greater declines in the 20-29 age group (-11%, -16 to 6) than in the older age groups (eg, -3% [-6 to 1] in those aged 70-89 years). During 2013-16, the SIR of lung cancer in people living with HIV was 2·01 (95% CI 1·52 to 2·61) in those aged 40-49 years, and 1·31 (1·12 to 1·52) in those aged 60-69 years, whereas the excess absolute risk among people living with HIV was 11·87 (3·95 to 21·89) per 100 000 person-years for those aged 40-49 years and 48·23 (6·88 to 95·47) per 100 000 person-years for those aged 60-69 years. Beginning in 2011, the 5-year cumulative incidence for lung cancer (1·36%, 95% CI 1·17 to 1·53) surpassed that of Kaposi sarcoma (0·12%, 0·06 to 0·17) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (0·45%, 0·35 to 0·56) for people living with HIV aged 60-69 years. Between 2001 and 2016, the risk of lung cancer decreased for people living with HIV aged 20-69 years, but remained substantially elevated compared with the general population, probably due to a combination of smoking and immunosuppression. For people living with HIV aged 60 years and older, the risk of lung cancer exceeds that of two of the most common AIDS-defining cancers, highlighting the importance of lung cancer among the growing older population of people living with HIV. Intramural Research Program of the US National Cancer Institute.

Burden of thyroid cancer in North Africa and Middle East 1990-2019.

BackgroundThyroid cancer is the leading cause of mortality and morbidity among cancers of the endocrine system. We aimed to describe the trends of thyroid cancer burden in North Africa and Middle East for 1990–2019.MethodsData on burden of thyroid cancer in North Africa and Middle East from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Decomposition analysis was used to estimate the effects of population growth, aging, and change in incident numbers on overall change of thyroid cancer incidence. Also, we used the comparative risk assessment framework of GBD to determine the burden of thyroid cancer attributable to a high body mass index (BMI).ResultsIn 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of thyroid cancer were 3.5 (2.9–4) and 0.5 (0.5–0.7) per 100,000, respectively. The highest age-standardized incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate were in Lebanon, Afghanistan, and United Arab Emirates, respectively. The ASIR of thyroid cancer in region was about 2.5 times higher among women, which had a positive association with increasing age. In 2019, the age-standardized deaths attributable to a high BMI was 16.7% of all deaths due to thyroid cancer. In 1990–2019, the overall change in thyroid cancer incident cases was a 396% increase which was mostly driven by the increase in disease-specific incidence rate (256.8%).ConclusionsWomen, the elderly above about 60 years old, and countries with a higher sociodemographic index showed higher incidence rates of thyroid cancer. Regarding our findings, it is recommended to establish preventive plans by modification in life style like weight reduction programs.

Analysis and forecast of burden of pancreatic cancer along with attributable risk factors in Asia countries between 1990 and 2019

Objective: To analyze the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in major Asian countries and forecast the burden of that in China, which helps to provide reference for the prevention and control of pancreatic cancer. Methods: Data on disease burden of pancreatic cancer among global and major Asian countries from on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 were collected to describe burden distribution through the absolute numbers or standardized rates of incidence, death and disability adjusted life years (DALY) by year, sex and socio-demographic index. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) was used to assess the trend of standardized rate. The proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer in 2019 was used to compare by age, sex and region. ARIMA model was performed with R language to predict change of age-standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer from 2020 to 2029. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rates of pancreatic cancer in China increased from 3.17/100 000 to 5.78/100 000, and the standardized death rate increased from 3.34/100 000 to 5.99/100 000. The increases exceeded other high-income Asia countries. In the past three decades, the standardized incidence, death and DALY rates of pancreatic cancer in global have increased year by year. Among the major countries in Asia, China has the highest growth rate of disease burden (EAPC of standardized incidence rates=2.32%, 95% CI: 2.10%-2.48% and EAPC of standardized death rate=2.25%, 95% CI: 2.03%-2.42%). In addition, incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer in China are expected to continue on the rise between 2000 and 2029 by ARIMA model. Incidence rate is expected to increase 15.92% and death rate is expected to increase 15.86%. Conclusions: The standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer in China increase year by year with an increasing trend for the burden of disease. The disease burden of pancreatic cancer is expected to rise due to the increase and aging of the population. Preventive measures should be adopted to decrease the burden of the pancreatic cancer.

Trends and Projections of Stomach Cancer Incidence in Hong Kong: A Population-Based Study

Objectives The burden of stomach cancer remains high in Hong Kong. We sought to evaluate the associations of age, period, and birth cohort with the changing trend in the incidence of stomach cancer and to provide projections through 2030. Materials and Methods We performed an age-period-cohort analysis and projections up to 2030 using data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Additionally, we used a population decomposition algorithm to assess the drivers in the number of incident cases of stomach cancer in Hong Kong. Results Among the 26,813 stomach cancer patients, from 1994 to 2018, the age-standardized incidence rate of stomach cancer decreased for both sexes. The incidence increased with age and was highest for those aged 85 years or older. Period relative risk (RR) showed a monotonic decreasing pattern throughout the study period for both sexes before 2010. Cohort RR for males was monotonically decreasing but changed little after the 1967–1971 birth cohort. In contrast, cohort RR for females declined in the pre-1927–1931 birth cohort but slowed down since. It is projected that there will be 906 male patients and 954 female patients in 2030. Decomposition analysis suggested that population growth and aging were associated with substantial changes in the number of incident cases of stomach cancer in Hong Kong. Conclusions Both period and cohort risk of developing stomach cancer in Hong Kong have slowed down or plateaued. Our study demonstrates that population aging and growth are the main drivers of the increased number of incident cases of stomach cancer in Hong Kong.

A 40-year follow-up study of liver cancer risk in Taiwan:An age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression analysis

Objectives Malignant neoplasm of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality in Taiwan. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer incidence in Taiwan. Methods We tracked the incidence rate of malignant neoplasm of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts (ICD-10 code C22) from 1980 to 2019, with data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. We then calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) for liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer based on the world standard population in 2000. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the trend change, and age-period-cohort models were used to investigate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer incidence. Results From 1980 to 2019, there were 278,363 newly reported cases of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer, for a crude incidence rate of 32.17 cases per 100,000 person-years. The ASIR exhibited a significant increase from 1980 to 2000 (APC = 7.4%, 95% CI: 6.9‒7.8%, P = &amp;#x3c;0.001), maintained at the plateau from 2000 to 2009, and then declined. The risk of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer in the population peaked in 2005-2010. The population born between 1965 and 1975 had the highest risk of developing liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer compared to the other cohort. The cancer risk dropped after hepatitis B vaccination program since 1980s. Conclusions Hepatitis B vaccination program may decrease the risk of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer in Taiwan. Appropriate vaccination program is advised for countries with similar exposures.

Environmental pollution from nephrite jade mines and lung cancer risk in a nearby community: An age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression analysis in Fengtian, Taiwan

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Nephrite is a nonasbestiform asbestos mineral comprised of microcrystalline tremolite and/or actinolite. Fengtian is a small village in Taiwan located near asbestos and nephrite mines. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on lung cancer incidence in the surrounding communities. METHODS: We tracked the incidence rate of lung cancer (ICD-9 code 162: cancers of the trachea, bronchus, or lung) from 1980 to 2019, with data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. We then calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) for lung cancer based on the world standard population in 2000. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the trend change, and age-period-cohort models were used to investigate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on lung cancer incidence. RESULTS: From 1980 to 2019, there were 278 newly reported lung cancer cases, for a crude incidence rate of 60.7 cases per 100,000 person-years. The ASIR of lung cancer exhibited a significant increase from 1980 to 2010 (APC = 6.8%, 95% CI: 4.0‒9.7%, P &amp;#x3c; 0.01) and then declined. The risk of lung cancer in the population peaked 40 years after nephrite mining commenced. The population born between during the mass production of asbestos and nephrite had an increased risk of developing lung cancer. The lung cancer risk in the community decreased 30 years after the cessation of nephrite mining. CONCLUSIONS: Nephrite mining may increase the risk of lung cancer in nearby communities. Appropriate medical monitoring is warranted for individuals with similar exposures.

Cancer in patients with heart failure: Incidence, risk factors and prognostic impact

AimsTo assess the incidence of cancer diagnosis and cancer-related mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). MethodsObservational study based in a prospective cohort of patients with HF referred to a specialized Spanish clinic between 2010 and 2019. The observed incidence of malignancies (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) was compared to that expected for the general Spanish population according to the Global Cancer Observatory. ResultsWe studied 1909 consecutive patients with HF. Over a median follow-up of 4.07 years, 165 new cases of malignancy were diagnosed. Observed age-standardized incidence rates of cancer were 861 (95% CI 618.4–2159.4) cases per 100,000 patients-years in men and 728.5 (95% CI 451.1–4308.7) cases per 100,000 patients-years in women; while age-standardized incidence rates of cancer expected for the general Spanish population were 479.4 cases per 100,000 patients-years in men (risk ratio = 1.80) and 295.5 cases per 100,000 patients-years in women (risk ratio = 2.46). Both a history of pre-existing malignancy at baseline and the development of new malignancies during follow-up were associated with reduced survival. Observed age-standardized cancer-related mortality was 344.1 (95% CI 202.1–1675) deaths per 100,000 patient-years in men and 217.0 (95% CI 32.8–3949.3) deaths per 100,000 patient-years in women; while age-standardized cancer-related mortality expected for the general Spanish population was 201.4 deaths per 100,000 patients-years in men (risk ratio = 1.71) and 96.2 deaths per 100,000 patients-years in women (risk ratio = 2.26). ConclusionPatients with HF showed higher incidence rates of cancer diagnosis and cancer-related mortality than those expected for the general population.

Colorectal Cancer Incidence, Inequalities, and Prevention Priorities in Urban Texas: Surveillance Study With the "surveil" Software Package.

BackgroundMonitoring disease incidence rates over time with population surveillance data is fundamental to public health research and practice. Bayesian disease monitoring methods provide advantages over conventional methods including greater flexibility in model specification and the ability to conduct formal inference on model-derived quantities of interest. However, software platforms for Bayesian inference are often inaccessible to nonspecialists.ObjectiveTo increase the accessibility of Bayesian methods among health surveillance researchers, we introduce a Bayesian methodology and open source software package, surveil, for time-series modeling of disease incidence and mortality. Given case count and population-at-risk data, the software enables health researchers to draw inferences about underlying risk and derivative quantities including age-standardized rates, annual and cumulative percent change, and measures of inequality.MethodsWe specify a Poisson likelihood for case counts and model trends in log-risk using the first-difference (random-walk) prior. Models in the surveil R package were built using the Stan modeling language. We demonstrate the methodology and software by analyzing age-standardized colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence rates by race and ethnicity for non-Latino Black (Black), non-Latino White (White), and Hispanic/Latino (of any race) adults aged 50-79 years in Texas’s 4 largest metropolitan statistical areas between 1999 and 2018.ResultsOur analysis revealed a cumulative decline of 31% (95% CI –37% to –25%) in CRC risk among Black adults, 17% (95% CI –23% to –11%) for Latino adults, and 35% (95% CI –38% to –31%) for White adults from 1999 to 2018. None of the 3 observed groups experienced significant incidence reduction in the final 4 years of the study (2015-2018). The Black-White rate difference (per 100,000) was 44 (95% CI 30-57) in 1999 and 35 (95% CI 28-43) in 2018. Cumulatively, the Black-White gap accounts for 3983 CRC cases (95% CI 3746-4219) or 31% (95% CI 29%-32%) of total CRC incidence among Black adults in this period.ConclusionsStalled progress on CRC prevention and excess CRC risk among Black residents warrant special attention as cancer prevention and control priorities in urban Texas. Our methodology and software can help the public and health agencies monitor health inequalities and evaluate progress toward disease prevention goals. Advantages of the methodology over current common practice include the following: (1) the absence of piecewise linearity constraints on the model space, and (2) formal inference can be undertaken on any model-derived quantities of interest using Bayesian methods.

National, sub-national, and risk-attributed burden of thyroid cancer in Iran from 1990 to 2019

An updated exploration of the burden of thyroid cancer across a country is always required for making correct decisions. The objective of this study is to present the thyroid cancer burden and attributed burden to the high Body Mass Index (BMI) in Iran at national and sub-national levels from 1990 to 2019. The data was obtained from the GBD 2019 study estimates. To explain the pattern of changes in incidence from 1990 to 2019, decomposition analysis was conducted. Besides, the attribution of high BMI in the thyroid cancer DALYs and deaths were obtained. The age-standardized incidence rate of thyroid cancer was 1.57 (95% UI: 1.33–1.86) in 1990 and increased 131% (53–191) until 2019. The age-standardized prevalence rate of thyroid cancer was 30.19 (18.75–34.55) in 2019 which increased 164% (77–246) from 11.44 (9.38–13.85) in 1990. In 2019, the death rate, and Disability-adjusted life years of thyroid cancer was 0.49 (0.36–0.53), and 13.16 (8.93–14.62), respectively. These numbers also increased since 1990. The DALYs and deaths attributable to high BMI was 1.91 (0.95–3.11) and 0.07 (0.04–0.11), respectively. The thyroid cancer burden and high BMI attributed burden has increased from 1990 to 2019 in Iran. This study and similar studies’ results can be used for accurate resource allocation for efficient management and all potential risks’ modification for thyroid cancer with a cost-conscious view.

Global Pattern and Trends in Penile Cancer Incidence: Population-Based Study.

BackgroundPenile cancer is a relatively rare genital malignancy whose incidence and mortality are rising in many countries.ObjectiveThis study aims to assess the recent incidence and mortality patterns and incidence trends of penile cancer.MethodsThe age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR and ASMR, respectively) of penile cancer in 2020 were estimated from the Global Cancer Registries (GLOBOCAN) database. Incidence trends of penile cancer from 1973 to 2012 were assessed in 44 populations from 43 countries using the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents plus (CI5plus) and the Nordic Cancer Registries (NORDCAN) databases. Average annual percentage change was calculated to quantify trends in ASIR using joinpoint regression.ResultsGlobally, the estimated ASIR and ASMR of penile cancer were 0.80 (per 100,000) and 0.29 (per 100,000) in 2020, equating to 36,068 new cases and 13,211 deaths in 2020, respectively. There was no significant correlation between the ASIR (P=.05) or ASMR (P=.90) and Human Development Index. In addition, 15 countries saw increasing ASIR for penile cancer, 13 of which were from Europe (United Kingdom, Lithuania, Norway, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Cyprus, Netherlands, Italy, Croatia, Slovakia, Russia, and the Czech), and 2 from Asia (China and Israel).ConclusionsAlthough the developing countries still bear the higher incidence and mortality of penile cancer, the incidence is on the rise in most European countries. To mitigate the disease burden resulting from penile cancer, measures to lower the risk for penile cancers, including improving penile hygiene and male human papillomavirus vaccination, may be warranted.

Incidence, Mortality Features and Lifetime Risk Estimation of Digestive Tract Cancers in an Urban District of Shanghai, China

Digestive tract cancers are the common cause of cancer deaths in both China and worldwide. This study aimed to describe the burden, recent trends and lifetime risks in the incidence and mortality of digestive tract cancers in an urban district of Shanghai, China. Our study extracted data on stomach, colon, rectum and liver cancers diagnosed in Changning District between 2010 and 2019 from the Shanghai Cancer Registry. We calculated age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, the risks of developing and dying from cancer, and the estimated annual percent changes. Between 2010 and 2019, 8619 new cases and 5775 deaths were registered with digestive tract cancers in the district. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of liver cancer decreased steadily, whereas the ASIRs of stomach, colon and rectum cancers remained stable from 2010 to 2019. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of stomach and liver cancers showed significant declining changes from 2010 to 2019 in both sexes, but that of colon and rectum cancers remained stable during the entire period. The risks of developing and dying from digestive tract cancers were substantially higher in men than women. The burden of digestive tract cancer and its disparities between sex and age group remain major public health challenges in urban Shanghai. To reduce the burden of digestive tract cancers, the government and researchers should develop and promote a healthy diet, organize a screening, and reduce the prevalence of smoking, alcohol drinking, and hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections.

EE88 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Risk Scoring Model in Population-Based Oral Cancer Screening Program of Taiwan

Age-standardized incidence rate of oral cancer (OC) in Taiwanese males remains high globally. Although free population-based oral mucosa examination (OME) is provided in Taiwan, late diagnoses and low survival rates of OC are still critical public health concerns. This study aimed to estimate the potential lifetime cost-effectiveness of the risk scoring model (RSM), a novel prediction strategy additional with OME simultaneously or consequently, in the OC screening program of Taiwan.

The Prevalence of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus in Hungary-A Geographically Representative, Cross-Sectional Study.

Background: The estimated age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer in Hungary are substantially higher than the European average. In many countries, human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is the first-line method of cervical cancer screening in women >30 years. According to the European guidelines, evidence-based improvement of a national prevention strategy requires the monitoring of representative data. Methods: ThinPrep cervical samples were collected over a period of 8 months at 84 sampling sites, including 4,000 eligible samples with valid laboratory results from the screening target population of females aged 25–65 years, with addresses in the representative geographic area (19 counties and four major settlement types). Genotyping of high-risk HPV (hrHPV) was performed using the Confidence HPV-X (Neumann Diagnostics) and Linear Array HPV Genotyping (Roche) tests. Demographic data were collected using a questionnaire, enabling the analysis of hrHPV genotype distribution by age, geography, education, and HPV vaccination. Results: Overall, 446 samples were hrHPV-positive, showing a prevalence of 11.15% (9.73% age-representative), similar to the world average, higher than the European average, and lower than the Eastern-European average. After age standardization, no significant geographic differences were found, except for low hrHPV prevalence in villages (p = 0.036) and in those with elementary education (p = 0.013). Following genotypes 16 and 31, in order of frequency, certain non-vaccine hrHPV genotypes (HPV51, 66, 56) showed unexpectedly higher prevalence than international data. Conclusion: Our study provides the first geographically representative genotype-specific hrHPV prevalence baseline database in Hungary to support policy-making efforts. Significant correlations with demographic data have transferable conclusions.