Age-standardized Mortality Research Articles

Assessment of healthy worker survivor bias among middle-aged manufacturing employees in Korea

Abstract Background Healthy Worker Survivor Bias (HWSB) describes a selection bias where those continuously employed tend to exhibit superior health outcomes compared to their unemployed counterparts. This bias challenges for adjustments due to its time-dependent nature. This study aims to evaluate the extent of HWSB related to changes in employment status among middle-aged manufacturing workers using comprehensive national data from Korea. Methods The study analyzed data from the National Health Insurance Service, targeting individuals aged 40-49 who maintained consistent insurance coverage-either as manufacturing employees or non-employees (self-employed or unemployed)-from 2008 to 2010. The observation period spanned from January 2011 to December 2022, with all-cause mortality as the primary outcome. We employed landmark analysis to quantify HWSB related to employment status by comparing age-standardized mortality ratios between employees and the general population from the initial assessment to the last landmark period (up to 7 years), calculating 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Poisson distribution. Results The cohort included 4,621,983 participants (726,616 manufacturing employees and 3,895,367 (84.3%) non-employees). Throughout an average follow-up of 10.9 years (43.1% male; median age of 44), there were 116,418 deaths (11,530 (1.6%) among manufacturing employees and 104,888 (2.7%) among non-employees). Analysis revealed a consistent linear increase in HWSB over time. Notably, the bias was more pronounced among females (7-year HWSB-ES [95% CI]: 0.27 [0.17-0.37]) compared to males (7-year HWSB-ES [95% CI]: 0.18 [0.14-0.22]). Conclusions This study quantifies the extent of HWSB among middle-aged manufacturing workers in Korea, highlighting its significant impact, notably in females. These findings are vital for occupational health research, emphasizing the necessity to consider HWSB to prevent the underestimation of health risks associated with hazardous exposures. Key messages • Findings suggest HWSB is more pronounced in female manufacturing workers, indicating the need for targeted occupational health interventions. • The study underscores the importance of accounting for HWSB in occupational health studies to avoid underestimating health risks associated with workplace exposures.

Temporal trends of thyroid cancer in China and globally from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of the global burden of Disease Study 2021

The incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) is increasing annually worldwide, with a growing burden. This study aims to analyze temporal trends in the burden of TC by age and sex in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, and to predict future trends. We obtained data on TC in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Using the Joinpoint regression model, we calculated and analyzed the trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR). Specifically, we estimated the annual percent change (APC), the average annual percent change (AAPC), and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for each metric. Additionally, we conducted a decomposition analysis to investigate the impact of aging, population growth, and epidemiological factors on the incidence and mortality rates of TC. Furthermore, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict the burden of TC from 2022 to 2036. From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR for TC in China increased from 1.249 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.009–1.473) per 100,000 to 2.473 (95% UI: 1.993–3.088) per 100,000. Conversely, the ASMR decreased from 0.473 (95% UI: 0.403–0.550) per 100,000 to 0.387 (95% UI: 0.307–0.472) per 100,000. Both males and females demonstrated an upward trajectory in ASIR. However, while the ASMR for females decreased, that for males showed an overall increase despite a decline in the last decade. The age of peak onset for TC ranged from 30 to 79 years, whereas the age of peak mortality was between 50 and 89 years. The analysis using the AAPC indicates that the growth in the ASIR (AAPC = 2.242, 95% CI: 2.112–2.371) and ASPR (AAPC = 2.975, 95% CI: 2.833–3.117) in China exceeds the global rate. Furthermore, the reduction in ASMR (AAPC = -0.651, 95% CI: -0.824 - -0.479) and ASDR (AAPC = -0.590, 95% CI: -0.787 - -0.392) in China is also more pronounced than globally. Decomposition analysis indicates that the increasing TC burden in China is primarily driven by population aging, whereas globally, population growth plays a more significant role. Projections based on predictive models suggest that from 2021 to 2036, the ASIR for both China and the global population is expected to continue rising, while the ASMR is anticipated to decline further. The incidence rates of TC in China and globally have shown a continuous upward trend, which is expected to persist over the next 15 years. Additionally, although the number of male TC cases is relatively lower compared to females, the overall ASMR and ASDR for males have shown an upward trend, despite a slight decline in recent years. This highlights the need to enhance prevention, diagnosis, and treatment measures, and to develop differentiated screening and treatment strategies based on age and sex.

Time trends and advances in the management of global, regional, and national diabetes in adolescents and young adults aged 10–24 years, 1990–2021: analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021

BackgroundEstimation of global diabetes burden in adolescents and young adults (10–24 years) from 1990 to 2021.MethodsData were extracted from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to examine trends over the past 30 years, frontier analysis identified regions with potential for improvement, and the slope index of inequality and the relative concentration index were used to assess health inequalities.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) of diabetes in adolescents and young adults increased globally, while age-standardized death rates (ASMR) remained stable. Oceania bore the highest burden regionally, East Asia experienced the fastest rise in ASPR and ASDR, and High-income Asia Pacific saw the most significant decrease in ASMR. Among 204 countries, Marshall Island and Hait reported the highest ASPR, ASDR, and ASMR in 2021. Health inequality analysis confirmed that the burden was concentrated in countries with lower Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Frontier analysis showed that ASMR and ASDR were negatively correlated with SDI, with Yemen and Honduras, which have lower socio-demographic indices, exhibiting more smaller overall differences from frontier boundaries.ConclusionsThe analysis revealed a sharp increase in the global ASPR and ASDR of diabetes in adolescents and young adults. Additionally, the disease burden is typically concentrated in countries with lower SDI, highlighting an urgent need for governments to develop flexible health policies to mitigate the escalating threat of diabetes in this demographic.

Global burden of multiple sclerosis and its attributable risk factors, 1990–2019

BackgroundMultiple sclerosis (MS) is a progressively debilitating disorder that has seen a notable rise in prevalence in recent years. This study examines the burden of MS from 1990 to 2019, providing a detailed analysis by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) across 204 countries and territories.MethodsData on the prevalence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to MS were obtained from the publically available Global Burden of Disease 2019 project. The estimates are reported as numbers, percentages, and age-standardized rates per 100,000, accompanied by 95% uncertainty intervals.ResultsIn 2019, MS accounted for 1.8 million prevalent cases, 22.4 thousand deaths and 1.2 million DALYs worldwide. There were significant declines in the global age-standardized prevalence, mortality and DALY rates of MS over the period 1990–2019. In 2019, females exhibited a higher global point prevalence and a greater total number of prevalent MS cases than males across all age groups. At the regional level, a non-linear relationship was observed between the age-standardized DALY rate of MS and SDI.ConclusionAlthough the global age-standardized DALY rate of MS decreased between 1990 and 2019, MS continues to account for a considerable number of DALYs and prevalent cases. Integrating MS and its associated risk factors into healthcare planning is vital, especially in areas with high levels of socioeconomic development.

Bayesian Model Projecting Cardiovascular Disease Related Mortality Trends in the United States.

As future cardiovascular disease mortality trends have public health implications, we aimed to project ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), and heart failure (HF) mortality rates for adults (40-79 years). In this population-level study, we linked the yearly mortality rates (per 100 000 US residents) (2000-2019) with IHD, CeVD, or HF as the primary cause of death from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research with the midyear US population estimates (2000-2035) for adults (40-79 years). We calculated the observed age-standardized mortality rates (2000-2019) (per 100 000 residents) (aSMR) and fitted Bayesian age-period-cohort models to project aSMR for IHD, CeVD, and HF up to 2035 in the United States. Between 2019 (last year of observed data) and 2035 (last year of projected results), the US population (40-79 years) will increase by 16% and age. The IHD aSMR will reduce from 111.9 (in 2019) to 81.8 (66.7-96.9) in 2035, an effect observed for all age groups. The CeVD aSMR will remain comparable between 2019 (37.4) and 2035 (38.6 [30.7-46.5]). The HF aSMR will increase from 16.5 in 2019 to reach 30.9 (13-48.8) in 2035; such increases were observed in all age groups. In the United States, between 2020 and 2035, the aSMR for IHD is expected to decrease, for CeVD will remain stable, and for HF will increase substantially. These data can inform resource allocation for future public health initiatives.

Trends in adult mortality rates in India, 1970 to 2018: age-period-cohort analysis.

High premature adult deaths in developing countries are gaining attention, as recent studies show their increasing impact on overall mortality rates. This paper has twofold objectives: firstly, it investigates the long-term trends and patterns of adult mortality between 1970 and 2018 in India. Secondly, it attempts to detect age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on adult mortality decline over time. Data on age-specific mortality rates and disease-adjusted life years for adult age groups (15-59 years) were collected from the Sample Registration System and the Global Burden of Disease study, respectively. The trends in age-standardized mortality rates were presented graphically, and critical change points were highlighted using a change-point analysis. The intrinsic estimator model was applied to estimate the independent effects of APC on adult mortality. The findings revealed that adult mortality declined between 1970 and 2018 with multiple critical change points. The APC effects showed a notable decline in adult mortality during 2005-2018 and for the recent birth cohorts, 1980-2004. However, the rate of mortality declined slowly over time. Results also indicated that mortality started increasing from mid-adult ages and peaked in older adult ages due to the age effects and provided evidence of a rise in adult life loss due to non-communicable diseases in recent years. Overall, the study underscores the importance of implementing health policies aimed at reducing life loss in the most economically active ages that can have long-term negative implications for the country's economic growth.

Trends and predictions of maternal sepsis and other maternal infections among women of childbearing age: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

BackgroundMaternal sepsis and other maternal infections (MSMIs) are major public health concerns worldwide. However, comprehensive data on their global burden and evolving trends remain sparse. This study aims to explore the epidemiological trends of MSMIs in women of childbearing age (WCBA) from 1990 to 2019, investigate the relationship between disease burden and age, period, and birth cohorts, and then provide a prediction of MSMIs incidence and deaths.MethodsThe estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the incidence and death number of MSMIs in seven age groups (15–19, 20–24, 25–29, 30–34, 35–39, 40–44, 45–49 years) were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MSMIs in WCBA were estimated utilizing the age standardization by direct method. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to investigate the changing trends of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019. Age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and birth cohorts. Furthermore, a Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was implemented to predict the global epidemiological trends through 2044.ResultsIn 2019, the estimated global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MSMIs in WCBA were 1072.90 (95% UI: 725.93 to 1483.46) and 0.86 (95% UI: 0.69 to 1.05), respectively. The highest disease burden existed in the African Region. From 1990 to 2019, the estimated global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MSMIs (AAPC: -1.32, 95% CI: −1.34 to −1.30; AAPC: -3.39, 95% CI: −4.28 to −2.48) in WCBA both demonstrated significant declining trends. The changing trends varied significantly across 6 regions and 204 countries. The effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates differed. From 2020 to 2044, the global age-standardized incidence rate of MSMIs in WCBA was predicted to decrease whereas the case number increases slowly.ConclusionThe global trends in MSMIs incidence and mortality generally showed a decline with considerable heterogeneity, indicating both the effectiveness and unevenness of global management of MSMIs. Moreover, the predicted increased case number highlights prominent challenges in the control of MSMIs.

Global, regional, and national total burden related to hepatitis B in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021

BackgroundHepatitis B remains a significant global health concern with widespread communicability. Nevertheless, data on its burden and trends in children and adolescents were limited. We aim to evaluate the global, regional, and national trends of total burden related to hepatitis B in children and adolescents aged 0–19 years from 1990 to 2021.MethodsThe age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990 to 2021. These indicators were stratified by sex, age, socio-demographic index (SDI), and disease stage. We calculated the correlation between them and SDI. The temporal trends were examined using the annual average percentage change (AAPC) and joinpoint regression.ResultsThe global age-standardized incidence of hepatitis B in children and adolescents decreased from 1385.20 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 418.68 per 100,000 population in 2021, with an AAPC of -3.76%. Similarly, age-standardized DALYs decreased from 70.78 per 100,000 population to 36.31 per 100,000 population, with an AAPC of -2.13%. The age-standardized prevalence (AAPC − 3.53%) and mortality (AAPC − 2.09%) of hepatitis B also decreased significantly. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence among males exhibited a higher trend compared to females, although both declined over time. These two indicators also decreased across all age subgroups, with consistently higher rates observed in the 15–19 age group compared to other age groups. The burden of hepatitis B demonstrated a notable reduction in countries with high-middle SDI, while it was highest in countries with low SDI. In 2021, Central sub-Saharan Africa and West sub-Saharan Africa reported the highest age-standardized incidence. For age-standardized DALYs, South Asia was the only region to experience an increase (AAPC 1.09%), while East Asia showed the largest decline (AAPC − 7.58%). Alcohol and drug use remained important risk factors for DALYs among people aged 15–19 years. Furthermore, the impact of drug use on disease burden was increasing, particularly in high-SDI countries.ConclusionsThe global burden and trends of hepatitis B decreased significantly in children and adolescents, exhibiting regional and national variations. Management of alcohol and drug use remains a major challenge for people aged 15–19 years.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality among older migrant and non-migrant adults in Finland: a register study on all deaths, 2002-2020.

Migrant mortality advantage is established in various studies, but there is a lack of evidence on migrant mortality trends in old age. Previous studies have primarily concentrated on all-cause mortality, and few include older age groups. Discussions about the migrant mortality advantage continue due to concerns about data availability and accuracy. Additionally, the mechanisms explaining the migrant mortality advantage remain unclear. This study examines all-cause and cause-specific mortality among older migrant and nonmigrant adults aged 70 and above using Finnish Cause of Death register data (2002-20) and the corresponding risk population. We investigate differences in overall and cause-specific mortality between migrant and Finnish-born population and by geographical region of origin. We calculated direct age-standardized mortality rates and age group-specific death rates followed by Poisson regression to study relative mortality differences. Age at death, sex, income, region of residence, and year of death were controlled for in the regression analysis. We found evidence of migrant mortality advantage across various causes of death, but there was variation by regions of origin groups and sex. Notably, women exhibit the strongest advantage in respiratory and digestive system diseases, while men demonstrated pronounced advantages in external causes and respiratory diseases. Our study challenges the notion of a general diminishing healthy migrant effect in old age. Our findings emphasize the need for nuanced investigations into socioeconomic factors and tailored interventions for older migrants.

Global burden of ischemic stroke attributable to high body mass index in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2021

BackgroundA high body mass index (hBMI) is one of the major risk factors for ischemic stroke (IS), although independent estimates of the global burden and trend of IS attributable to hBMI are unclear.MethodsStudy data were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study and analysed by age, sex, year, and geographical location. The sociodemographic index (SDI) and the human development index (HDI) were used as indicators of national socioeconomic status. Geographic distributions and trends were assessed by calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Associations between the age-standardized death rate (ASMR) or disability-adjusted life year rate (DALY) and socioeconomic status were analysed.ResultsDeaths and DALYs increased worldwide from 1990–2021, with increases of 95.74% for the former and 133.00% for the latter; the ASMR and ASDR decreased, with an ASMR and ASDR-related EAPCs of -1.10 (95% CI: -1.24–-0.96) and 0.04 (95% CI:-0.47–0.55), respectively; women had greater numbers of deaths and DALYs, and the majority of deaths and DALYs were shared by those aged ≥ 70. The highest burden rates were shared by Eastern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia. The ASMR-related EAPCs were associated with the ASMR in 1990 (R = -0.35, P < 0.001) and the SDI in 2021 in different countries (R = -0.66, P < 0.001); these patterns were similar to those of the ASDR; the HDI in 2021 was associated with the ASMR-related EAPC (R = -0.71, P < 0.001) and the ASDR-related EAPC in different countries (R = -0.71, P < 0.001).ConclusionsThe number of deaths and DALYs from ischemic stroke attributable to hBMI worldwide increased substantially from 1990–2021. Successful population-wide initiatives targeting hBMI may mitigate a wide range of burdens on this disease. Taking into account variations in the SDI burden, future prevention and control strategies must be developed and implemented according to country-specific development status.

Global cancer statistics for adolescents and young adults: population based study.

Accurate and up-to-date estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (AYA) are scarce. This study aims to assess the global burden and trends of AYA cancer, with a focus on socioeconomic disparities, to inform global cancer control strategies. AYA cancer, defined as cancer occurring in individuals aged 15-39, was analyzed using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study and the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022 project. We examined the global burden by age, sex, geographic location, and Human Development Index (HDI), as well as its temporal trends. Primary outcomes included age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR, ASMR) and the average annual percent change (AAPC). In 2022, an estimated 1,300,196 incidental cases and 377,621 cancer-related deaths occurred among AYAs worldwide, with an ASIR of 40.3 per 100,000 and an ASMR of 11.8 per 100,000. The most common cancers were breast, thyroid, and cervical, while the leading causes of death were breast, cervical, and leukemia. The incidence and mortality were disproportionately higher among females (ASIR: 52.9 for females vs. 28.3 for males; ASMR: 13.1 for females vs. 10.6 for males). Countries with higher HDI experienced a higher incidence of AYA cancers (ASIR: 32.0 [low HDI] vs. 54.8 [very high HDI]), while countries with lower HDI faced a disproportionately higher mortality burden (ASMR: 17.2 [low HDI] vs. 8.4 [very high HDI]) despite their relatively low incidence. Disproportionality and regression measures highlighted significant HDI-related inequalities. AYA cancer incidence was stable from 2000 to 2011 (AAPC: - 0.04) but increased from 2012 to 2021 (AAPC: 0.53), driven by growing gonadal and colorectal cancers. Mortality decreased substantially from 2000 to 2011 (AAPC: - 1.64), but the decline slowed from 2012 (AAPC: - 0.32) probably due to increased deaths from gonadal cancers. These trends varied by sex, cancer type, geography, and HDI. AYA cancers present a significant and growing global burden, with marked disparities across sex, geographic locations, and HDI levels. Policymakers should prioritize equitable resource allocation and implement targeted interventions to reduce these inequalities, particularly in low-HDI regions and with regard to gonadal cancers.

Trend and forecast analysis of the changing disease burden of pancreatic cancer attributable to high fasting glucose in China, 1990–2021

BackgroundPancreatic cancer (PC) is a malignant tumour with poor prognosis and high mortality, and high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) is considered to be one of its important risk factors.MethodsPC disease burden data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database. Annual percent change (APC), average APC (AAPC), and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were analysed using joinpoint linkpoint regression models to assess the trend of PC burden of disease between 1990 and 2021. An age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on PC burden, and data on PC mortality attributable to HFPG in China from 2022 to 2032 were analysed on the basis of a Bayesian age-period-cohort model projection.ResultsThe number of Pc deaths due to HFPG continue to rise in China from 1990 to 2021, with age-standardised mortality (ASMR) and age-standardised disability-adjusted life-year rates with increasing AAPC values of 1.12% (95% CI, 0.73–1.52) and 1.00% (95% CI, 0.63–1.37), respectively. Throughout the study, we found that the overall level of PC disease burden was significantly higher in men than that in women. In age-period-cohort analyses, the age effect of PC showed an increasing and then decreasing trend, the period effect showed an overall increasing trend during the study period, and the cohort effect showed an overall slow decreasing trend. In addition, the BAPC model predicted that ASMR is expected to decline significantly in both men and women from 2022 to 2032.ConclusionsIt was found that PC attributable to HFPG was generally on the rise in China from 1990 to 2021 and has been on the decline in recent years, and projections suggest that the country’s future PC disease burden will continue to show a downward trend. Age and period of birth are the main factors affecting the disease burden, especially in men and older age groups. Early prevention, regular screening, and research into the pathogenesis of PC have, therefore, become particularly important.

Systematic analysis and prediction of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections attribute to non-optimal temperature, 1990–2019

BackgroundLower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain one of the most deadly infectious diseases in the world, and non-optimal temperature is a risk factor for LRIs. The aim of this study was to analyze the global burden of LRI attribute to non-optimal temperature and its trends from 1990 to 2019, and to project long-term trends.MethodsExcerpts from the release of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which analyses the burden of lower respiratory infections due to non-optimal temperatures from 1990 to 2019 using data on deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs); explores differences across regions, populations and seasons, and projects future trends in burden.ResultsBetween 1990 and 2019, there is a significant downward trend in the global burden of deaths and DALYs, but it remains high in infants and young children, the older adult, African countries and LOW SDI regions. Differences in geographical risk factors and economic levels lead to heterogeneous disease burdens across regions. In 2019, low SDI regions will have the highest burden, but high SDI regions will have the highest number of deaths. In addition, increasing SDI values were associated with decreasing trends in age-standardized mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years. BAPC model projections suggest a downward trend in the future burden of death and DALYs from the disease, but the improvement in the burden of death for women was not significant.ConclusionOur study comprehensively elucidates the distribution and dynamic trends in the burden of lower respiratory tract infections due to non-optimal temperatures from 1990 to 2019 along multiple dimensions. The burden of deaths and DALYs showed an overall decreasing trend, but the improvement was uneven in different regions. In addition, the results suggest that efforts should be made to reduce lower respiratory health losses in infants, young children, and older adult populations. Effective public health policies and interventions to reduce the burden of lower respiratory tract infections should be sustained globally.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Nonrheumatic Valvular Heart Disease and Its Attributable Risk Factors in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990 to 2019: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Nonrheumatic valvular heart disease (NRVD) is increasingly becoming a significant public health concern, particularly among older people. In the context of population aging, a detailed report on the epidemiological trends of NRVD is crucial for policymakers to effectively allocate health care resources. This study aimed to explore these trends using data from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2019 study. We assessed the changing trends of the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years rates for NRVD by calculating the estimated annual percentage change for each. Additionally, we examined the impact of a region's level of social development on NRVD epidemiological trends and identified key risk factors contributing to NRVD-related deaths. Between 1990 and 2019, the global incidence of NRVD showed a gradual increase, with an estimated annual percentage change of 0.39 (95% CI, 0.30-0.48). The data revealed that women and older people are more likely to develop NRVD. High-sociodemographic index countries exhibited higher age-standardized incidence and mortality rates compared with low- and middle-sociodemographic index countries. The most significant risk factor for NRVD-related mortality was identified as high systolic blood pressure. Over the past 3 decades, the burden of NRVD has intensified, indicating a need for more health care resources to address this issue, which is closely associated with an aging population. Currently, high-sociodemographic index countries report the highest incidences and deaths due to NRVD. However, low- and middle-sociodemographic index countries should also implement measures to manage the rapidly increasing burden of NRVD.

Association between long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution and risk of death attributed to esophageal cancer in Taiwan

ABSTRACT The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution as carcinogenic to humans (Group I), most frequently associated with lung cancer. Airborne air pollutants may be associated with other sites of cancer, although few studies have examined this avenue of research. Esophageal cancer mortality rates vary substantially across townships in Taiwan, a fact that suggests environment influence. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the association between long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 and deaths attributed to esophageal cancer in 66 municipal areas across Taiwan. To conduct this study, annual PM2.5 levels were determined taking into account age-standardized esophageal cancer mortality rates in male and female residents of these municipalities from 2012 to 2021. The annual PM2.5 levels of each municipality were divided into tertiles and computed adjusted risk ratio (RR) using weighted-multiple regression analyses controlling for municipal lung cancer deaths, urbanization level, and physician density. Men residing in those areas with intermediate PM2.5 tertile levels (18.96–25.19 ug/m3) were found to have an adjusted RR of 1.22 (1.15–1.30) and those of residing areas with the highest tertiles levels (25.20–29.48 ug/m3) exhibited an RR of 1.11 (1.051.18). However, in women in the same municipalities, a significant inverse association was found between PM2.5 levels and mortality attributed to esophageal cancer, 0.82 (95% CI = 0.65-1.04) and 0.61 (95% CI = 0.47-0.79), respectively. These findings suggest that long-term exposure to PM2.5 increases the risk of developing esophageal cancer in men in Taiwan.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Stroke, 1990-2021: A Systematic Analysis for Global Burden of Disease 2021.

This study aims to perform a comprehensive analysis of stroke burden from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the burden, including prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year rates, for stroke across 204 countries and regions from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and performed a joinpoint regression analysis to identify the trends. We also explored the association between the stroke burden and sociodemographic index. The age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year rates for stroke were 1099.310, 141.553, 87.454, and 1886.196 per 100 000 persons in 2021, respectively. The general stroke burden trends declined in EAPC analysis (age-standardized prevalence: EAPC, -0.37; age-standardized incidence: EAPC, -0.99; age-standardized mortality: EAPC, -1.81; and disability-adjusted life year: EAPC, -1.76). However, we found an increasing burden of stroke in East Asia and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (EAPC >0). The global burdens of intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and ischemic stroke showed a similar trend. The stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and ischemic stroke burdens were heavier in men than in women, except for that of subarachnoid hemorrhage in women. Our joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the age-standardized burden rates of stroke decreased from 1990 to 2021 (average annual percent change <0), whereas an upward trend was observed between 2019 and 2021 (average annual percent change >0). The burden of stroke was inversely proportional to the sociodemographic index (P<0.05), except in the case of subarachnoid hemorrhage. The actual stroke burden showed an increasing trend for stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and ischemic stroke in 2021 (during the coronavirus pandemic). We found age-standardized rates of stroke burden declining over time, but some areas exhibited a notable increase in the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year rates.

Population-Level Distribution, Risk Factors, and Burden of Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years Attributable to Major Noncommunicable Diseases in Western Europe (1990-2021): Ecological Analysis.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and neoplasms are leading causes of mortality worldwide. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the mortality burden and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to CVDs and neoplasms in Western Europe, investigate associated risk factors, and identify regional disparities. Additionally, the study evaluates the effectiveness of the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in promoting healthier lives in the region. The study collected data on mortality and DALYs due to CVDs and cancers from 24 Western European countries using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The analysis explored age, sex, and country-specific patterns, as well as risk factors contributing to these deaths. Additionally, the study examined time trends by calculating the annual percent change in mortality rates from 1990 to 2021 by region and cause. In 2021, CVDs and neoplasms accounted for 27.8% and 27.1% of total deaths in Western Europe, with age-standardized death rates of 106.8 and 125.8 per 100,000, respectively. The top two CVDs in this region were ischemic heart disease and stroke, with age-standardized death rates of 47.27 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 50.42-41.45) and 27.06 (95% UI 29.17-23.00), respectively. Similarly, the top two neoplasms were lung cancer and colorectal cancer, with age-standardized death rates of 26.4 (95% UI 27.69-24.47) and 15.1 (95% UI 16.25-13.53), respectively. Between 1990 and 2021, CVD mortality rates decreased by 61.9%, while cancer rates decreased by 28.27%. Finland had the highest CVD burden (39.5%), and Monaco had the highest rate of cancer-related deaths (34.8%). Gender differences were observed, with males experiencing a higher burden of both CVDs and cancer. Older individuals were also more at risk. Smoking had a stronger impact on CVD mortality and DALYs in males, while a higher Human Development Index was associated with increased cancer deaths and DALYs in females. The study findings highlight the substantial burden of NCDs, particularly CVDs and cancer, in Western Europe. This underscores the critical need for targeted interventions and effective implementation of the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of NCDs to achieve the goal of ensuring healthy lives for all.

Gender-specific correlates for suicide mortality in people with schizophrenia: a 9-year population-based study

BackgroundSchizophrenia is associated with a high mortality rate due to the high risk of suicide. However, there is still a lack of evidence on the gender-specific risk factors for suicide among people with schizophrenia. In this study, we aimed to measure the sociodemographic and clinical correlates of suicide deaths in different genders among people with schizophrenia.MethodsData on patients with schizophrenia from 2013 to 2021 in Guangzhou, China were obtained from the National Information System for Psychosis (NISP), involving a total of 33,080 patients. Cox regression and Fine-Gray models were used to explore the sociodemographic and clinical risk factors for suicide mortality in different genders.ResultsThe overall age-standardized mortality rates due to suicide were 133.89 (95% CI: 124.31-143.47) per 100,000 person-years for females and 163.25 (95% CI: 152.92-173.59) per 100,000 person-years for males. To be specific, lack of medical insurance, history of non-treatment, and history of suicidal behavior was associated with a higher risk for suicide mortality for females, while an age of 35–54, being hospitalized once, and the age of onset being > 28 years were linked to lower risk for suicide mortality for males. For both genders, a lower risk for suicide mortality was observed in patients at an older age (≥ 55 years) and with a history of hospitalization more than once, and a higher suicide mortality risk was found in married patients and those residing in rural areas.ConclusionThe present study found that gender differences should be taken into account in the development of suicide prevention programs for people with schizophrenia, and future research is still required to verify our preliminary results.

Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Among Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Adults Aged 35 Years or Older, 2018 to 2022.

Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (NHPI) adults have historically been grouped with Asian adults in U.S. mortality surveillance. Starting in 2018, the 1997 race and ethnicity standards from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget were adopted by all states on death certificates, enabling national-level estimates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality for NHPI adults independent of Asian adults. To describe CVD mortality among NHPI adults. Race-stratified age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and rate ratios were calculated using final mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System for 2018 to 2022. Fifty states and the District of Columbia. Adults aged 35 years or older at the time of death. CVD deaths were identified from International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes indicating CVD (I00 to I99) as the underlying cause of death. From 2018 to 2022, 10 870 CVD deaths (72.6% from heart disease; 19.0% from cerebrovascular disease) occurred among NHPI adults. The CVD ASMR for NHPI adults (369.6 deaths per 100 000 persons [95% CI, 362.4 to 376.7]) was 1.5 times higher than for Asian adults (243.9 deaths per 100 000 persons [CI, 242.6 to 245.2]). The CVD ASMR for NHPI adults was the third highest in the country, after Black adults (558.8 deaths per 100 000 persons [CI, 557.4 to 560.3]) and White adults (423.6 deaths per 100 000 persons [CI, 423.2 to 424.1]). Potential misclassification of underlying cause of death or race group. NHPI adults have a high rate of CVD mortality, which was previously masked by aggregation of the NHPI population with the Asian population. The results of this study support the need for continued disaggregation of the NHPI population in public health research and surveillance to identify opportunities for intervention. National Institute of General Medical Sciences, National Institutes of Health.

Burden landscape of hepatobiliary and pancreatic cancers in Chinese young adults: 30 years' overview and forecasted trends.

Hepatobiliary and pancreatic (HBP) cancers impose a considerable burden on young populations (aged 15 to 49 years), resulting in a substantial number of new cases and fatalities each year. In young populations, the HBP cancers shows extensive variance worldwide and the updated data in China is lacking. To investigate the current status, trends, projections, and underlying risk factors of HBP cancers among young populations in China. The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 provided data on the annual incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR), and DALYs rate (ASDR) of HBP cancers in young Chinese adults between 1990 and 2019. Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change and hierarchical clustering. Sex-specific mortality and DALYs caused by various risks were analyzed across China and other regions, with future trends until 2035 projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. From 1990 to 2019, incident cases, deaths, DALYs, ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR for liver cancer (LC) in young Chinese individuals decreased, classified into 'significant decrease' group. Conversely, cases of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer and pancreatic cancer rose, categorized as either 'significant increase' or 'minor increase' groups. The contribution of risk factors to mortality and DALYs for HBP tumors increased to varying degrees. Healthy lifestyle behaviors, such as tobacco control, weight management, alcohol moderation, and drug avoidance, could lower HBP cancers incidence. Moreover, except for LC in females, which is likely to initially decline slightly and then rise, the forecasting model predicted that the ASIR and ASMR for all HPB cancers subtypes by gender will increase among young adults. HBP cancers burden among young adults in China is expected to increase until 2035, necessitating lifestyle interventions and targeted treatment strategies to mitigate the public health impact of these cancers.