Age-period-cohort Model Research Articles

Musculoskeletal Disorder Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Predicts from 1990 to 2044.

Musculoskeletal disorders are one of the three major disabling diseases in the world. However, the current disease burden in China is not well-known. This study aimed to explore the burden and risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders in China from 1990 to 2019, predicting the incidence trend from 2020 to 2044. All data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) models were selected to analyze the epidemic trend, and descriptive analyses of the time trends and age distributions of risk factors were performed. The Bayesian APC model was used to foresee the incidence trend from 2020 to 2044. The results indicated that the burden of musculoskeletal disorders is higher in women and older adults. Its attributable risk factors were found to be tobacco, a high body mass index, kidney dysfunction and occupational risks. In 2044, musculoskeletal disorders in China showed a downward trend for 35-59-year-olds and a slight upward trend for 30-34- and 65-84-year-olds. The 70-74 year age group saw the largest increase in incidence at 4.66%. Overall, the incidence increased with age. Therefore, prevention and control policies should focus on women and the elderly, and health interventions should be carried out based on risk factors.

Changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 years.

The burden of mental disorders is increasing worldwide, thus, affecting society and healthcare systems. This study investigated the independent influences of age, period and cohort on the global prevalence of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019; compared them by sex; and predicted the future burden of mental disorders in the next 25years. The age-specific and sex-specific incidence of mental disorders worldwide was analysed according to the general analysis strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2019. The incidence and mortality trends of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 were evaluated through joinpoint regression analysis. The influences of age, period and cohort on the incidence of mental disorders were evaluated with an age-period-cohort model. From 1990 to 2019, the sex-specific age-standardized incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate decreased slightly. Joinpoint regression analysis from 1990 to 2019 indicated four turning points in the male DALY rate and five turning points in the female DALY rate. In analysis of age effects, the relative risk (RR) of incidence and the DALY rate in mental disorders in men and women generally showed an inverted U-shaped pattern with increasing age. In analysis of period effects, the incidence of mental disorders increased gradually over time, and showed a sub-peak in 2004 (RR, 1.006 for males; 95% CI, 1.000-1.012; 1.002 for women, 0.997-1.008). Analysis of cohort effects showed that the incidence and DALY rate decreased in successive birth cohorts. The incidence of mental disorders is expected to decline slightly over the next 25years, but the number of cases is expected to increase. Although the age-standardized burden of mental disorders has declined in the past 30years, the number of new cases and deaths of mental disorders worldwide has increased, and will continue to increase in the near future. Therefore, relevant policies should be used to promote the prevention and management of known risk factors and strengthen the understanding of risk profiles and incidence modes of mental disorders, to help guide future research on control and prevention strategies.

Instabilities in Cox proportional hazards models in credit risk

When the underlying system or process being observed is based upon observations versus age, vintage (origination time) and calendar time, Cox proportional hazards (PH) models can exhibit instabilities because of embedded assumptions. The literature on age–period–cohort (APC) models provides clues as to why this is, which we use to explore possible instabilities in applying Cox PH models. This model structure occurs frequently in applications such as loan credit risk, website traffic, customer churn and employee retention. Our numerical studies, designed to capture the dynamics of credit risk modeling, demonstrate that the same linear specification error from APC models occurs in Cox PH estimation when the covariates contain basis functions with linear terms, or if those covariates are correlated to the baseline hazard function. This demonstrates that the linear trend specification error in APC models is equivalent to multicollinearity instabilities in Cox PH models or in any regression context when applied to comparable problems. As part of our study of multicollinearity, we show equivalences between Cox PH estimation methods and other regression techniques, including an original proof that Breslow’s method for Cox PH estimation is equivalent to Poisson regression in the case of ties.

Analysis on Incidence and Mortality Trends and Age–Period–Cohort of Breast Cancer in Chinese Women from 1990 to 2019

To analyze the incidence and mortality trends of breast cancer among women in China from 1990 to 2019 and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence and mortality of breast cancer. We performed a Joinpoint regression model to describe trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality. We used an age-period-cohort analysis model to estimate the impact of age, period, and cohort on breast cancer incidence and mortality. We collected breast cancer incidence and mortality among women aged 20-89 in China (1990-2019) from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) database. The crude incidence and mortality of breast cancer from 1990 to 2019 in Chinese women showed an increasing trend, with an average annual increase percentage (AAPC) of 4.69% and 2.18%, respectively. The analysis on the age-period-cohort model revealed that the risk of incidence increased first and then decreased with age and peaked at 55-59 years old, whereas the risk of mortality increased by approximately 60.34 times from 20 to 89 years old. The risk of incidence and mortality increased by 2.64 and 1.49 times with the passage of time, respectively. The later the birth cohort is, the lower the risk of incidence and mortality will be. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence and mortality of breast cancer among Chinese women showed an increasing trend, and the prevention and control situation of breast cancer was still grim. Therefore, visual examination and palpation examination should be actively carried out in adult women with breast cancer, and the conventional population after 40 years of age, the high-risk population carrying hereditary breast cancer gene and the elderly population should be assisted with imaging examination along with palpation examination. When treating patients suffering from breast cancer, in order to reduce the death rate, a personalized treatment plan should be developed based on the characteristics of different patients.

The epidemic of malignant mesothelioma in China: a prediction of incidence during 2016-2030.

Malignant mesothelioma is an invasive cancer with a poor prognosis. The crude incidence rate of malignant mesothelioma in China increased throughout 2000 to 2013, which attracted attention. In order to predict the incidence trend of malignant mesothelioma in China, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) prediction model was constructed using publicly available data from the National Cancer Registration Network. Based on the annual reports of the national cancer registration from 2005 to 2015, the incidence trend of malignant mesothelioma from 2016 to 2030 in China was forecast using the APC Modeling and Prediction package from the Institute of Biomedical Engineering, London. The crude incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma decreased from 2.2 per one million person-years in 2005 to 1.6 per one million person-years in 2015. The incidence rates remained stable over the 11-year time period after age standardization. Aging was found to have a dominant effect on the trends. The Bayesian APC model showed that the crude incidence rates would increase from 1.4 per one million person-years in 2016 to 1.9 per one million person-years in 2030, and the estimated number of new incident cases would increase to 2,775 in 2030. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) remained steady. In the future decade, the incidence of malignant mesothelioma may increase, but the ASR will remain stable. Considering its high degree of malignancy, malignant mesothelioma still needs to be taken seriously.

Temporal Trends in Incidence of Nutritional Deficiency among Older Adults in China: A Secondary Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990–2019

Nutritional deficiency is prevalent among the elderly, and it is associated with many adverse health consequences. China is rapidly moving toward an aging society with a large population; however, evidence on the epidemiological trends in nutritional deficiency among the Chinese elderly is limited. Data on the incidence of nutritional deficiency among Chinese adults aged 65 years or above from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. We used the joinpoint regression method to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and to describe trend patterns. Age, period, and cohort effects were determined using age-period-cohort models. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of vitamin A deficiency and iodine deficiency among Chinese older adults decreased from 1784.12 and 8.20 to 304.27 and 7.26 per 100,000, with AAPCs of -0.41 (-0.44, -0.38)% and -5.86 (-6.29, -5.43)%, respectively. A continually increasing trend was seen for incidence rates of protein-energy malnutrition, from 1342.02 to 2275.87 per 100,000 person-years, with an AAPC of 1.70 (1.40, 2.01)%. These trends were more pronounced among men than women. A strong age effect and birth cohort effect were present. Specifically, the population that was older or born later had a lower incidence of deficiencies in vitamin A and iodine but a higher incidence of protein-energy malnutrition. The results show a substantial reduction in vitamin A and iodine deficiencies among the Chinese elderly, and health policies and public awareness are needed to address the burden of protein-energy malnutrition in this population.

Temporal trends in lung cancer mortality and years of life lost in Wuhan, China, 2010-2019.

Lung cancer is responsible for millions of deaths yearly, and its burden is severe worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the burden of lung cancer in the population of Wuhan based on the surveillance data from 2010 to 2019. Data of this study was obtained from the Mortality Register System established by the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The study systematically analyzed the burden of lung cancer deaths in the population of Wuhan and its 13 administrative regions from 2010 to 2019 via the Joinpoint regression models, Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models, and decomposition analysis. This study found the upward and downward trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and age-standardized years of life lost rates (ASYLLRs) of lung cancer from 2010 to 2019. In Joinpoint regression models, the corresponding estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were 1.00% and -1.90%, 0.60%, and -3.00%, respectively. In APC models, lung cancer mortality tended to increase with age for both sexes in Wuhan, peaking at the 85-89 age group; The period effects for different populations have started to gradually decline in recent years. In addition, the cohort effects indicated that the risk of lung cancer death was highest among those born in the 1950s-1955s, at 1.08 (males) and 1.01 (females). Among all administrative districts in Wuhan, the ASMR of lung cancer in the Xinzhou District has remained the highest over the study period. In decomposition analysis, both population aging (P<0.01) and population growth (P<0.01) aggravated (Z>0) lung cancer deaths in the Wuhan population. The burden of lung cancer death in the Wuhan population has shown a gradual decline in recent years, but the impact of aging and population growth on lung cancer mortality should not be ignored. Therefore, lung cancer surveillance must be strengthened to reduce the burden of lung cancer in Wuhan.

Gastric cancer incidence trends in China and Japan from 1990 to 2019: Disentangling age-period-cohort patterns.

Recent data have shown divergent trends in gastric cancer (GC) incidence between China and Japan; however, the cause for has not been explored. We retrieved GC incidence data from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study, stratified by sex for both countries. We analyzed annual average percentage change (AAPC) via a joinpoint regression model and estimated the effects of age, period, and cohort via the age-period-cohort model. The age-standardized incidence rate trends for GC decreased in both countries and both sexes, but the reduction was more pronounced in Japan because the AAPC for Japanese males (AAPC=-2.65%; 95% CI, -2.98 to -2.32) was eight times greater than that of Chinese males (AAPC=-0.30%; 95% CI, -0.5 to -0.09). The age and cohort effects on the trend are similar in both countries: the risk of GC incidence increased with age among the Chinese and the Japanese but was lower among younger birth cohorts. The two countries showed contrasting trends over the study period; although the risk of GC rapidly decreased for Japanese males and females, it increased by twofold among Chinese males. The period effect is the main reason for the divergent trends in age-standardized incidence rate for GC in China and Japan. By comparing national cancer control programs in both countries, we concluded that countries with a high prevalence of GC, such as China, can learn from Japan's experience in controlling GC by actively conducting national population screening, which is expected to facilitate both prevention and treatment of GC. More than one-half of all new gastric cancer (GC) worldwide occur in China and Japan, but the reasons for the different incidence trends have not been thoroughly analyzed. Analysis using the age-period-cohort model confirmed that the cohort effect was the main reason for the decline in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for GC and that the period effect may be the main reason for the divergent trends in gastric cancer ASIR in China and Japan.

Future trends of overweight and obesity in Belgium using Bayesian age-period-cohort models

Abstract Background Considering the current overweight and obesity epidemic and its associated increase in non-communicable diseases and healthcare costs, the current study aimed to project the trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity in Belgium using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) model to support policy planning. Methods Height and weight of 58,369 adults aged 18+ years, collected in six consecutive cross-sectional health interview surveys between 1997 and 2018, were evaluated. Criteria used for overweight and obesity were defined as body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25, and BMI ≥ 30. A Bayesian APC model was applied to evaluate past trends and associated socio-demographic risk factors, and to forecast trends to 2019-2029. All analyses were performed based on integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and took the complex survey design into account. Results The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased between 1997 and 2018. If current trends continue, it is likely to that a further increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the population will be seen by 2029 with a probability of growth of 51.2% and 73.3%, respectively. Forecasts indicated a potential prevalence of 50.1% [16.2%; 84.4%] in 2029 for overweight, and 21.4% [9.0%; 43.4%] for obesity. Among survey participants, middle-aged men with no higher education and a middle income showed the highest risk of overweight and obesity. Conclusions We projected an alarming increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. A decrease in cases seems very unlikely. There is an urgent need to target younger age groups for prevention and implementation of public educational programs to limit the increasing trend in overweight and obesity. Key messages • The occurence of obesity is likely to increase in the following 10 years. • Projection of trends can serve as a useful tool for policy planning on the mid- and longer term.

The comparative burden of brain and central nervous system cancers from 1990 to 2019 between China and the United States and predicting the future burden.

Brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancers represent a major source of cancer burden in China and the United States. Comparing the two countries' epidemiological features for brain and CNS cancers can help plan interventions and draw lessons. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease repository. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and relative risks of cancer burdens were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort (APC) models, respectively. Moreover, a Bayesian APC model was employed to predict the disease burden over the next decade. From 1990 to 2019, the number of incidences, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) increased in China and the US, with a larger increase in China. Age-standardized incidence rates in China and the United States have shown an increasing trend over the past three decades, with AAPCs of 0.84 and 0.16%, respectively. However, the rates of age-standardized mortality and age-standardized DALYs decreased in both countries, with a greater decrease in China. Overall, age trends in cancer burden were similar for males and females, with two peaks in the childhood and elderly groups, respectively. The period and cohort effects on incidence showed an overall increasing trend in China and limited change in the US. However, the period effects for mortality and DALY were decreasing in both countries, while the cohort effects tended to increase and then decrease. Moreover, we predicted that the cancer burdens would continue to rise in China over the next decade. The burden of brain and CNS cancers is substantial and will continue to increase in China. Comprehensive policy and control measures need to be implemented to reduce the burden.

The projections of global and regional rheumatic heart disease burden from 2020 to 2030.

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains the leading cause of preventable death and disability in children and young adults, killing an estimated 320,000 individuals worldwide yearly. We utilized the Bayesian age-period cohort (BAPC) model to project the change in disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Then we described the projected epidemiological characteristics of RHD by region, sex, and age. The global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of RHD increased from 1990 to 2019, and ASPR will increase to 559.88 per 100,000 population by 2030. The global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of RHD will continue declining, while the projected death cases will increase. Furthermore, ASPR and cases of RHD-associated HF will continue rising, and there will be 2,922,840 heart failure (HF) cases in 2030 globally. Female subjects will still be the dominant population compared to male subjects, and the ASPR of RHD and the ASPR of RHD-associated HF in female subjects will continue to increase from 2020 to 2030. Young people will have the highest ASPR of RHD among all age groups globally, while the elderly will bear a greater death and HF burden. In the following decade, the RHD burden will remain severe. There are large variations in the trend of RHD burden by region, sex, and age. Targeted and effective strategies are needed for the management of RHD, particularly in female subjects and young people in developing regions.

Stroke mortality attributable to high red meat intake in China and South Korea: An age-period-cohort and joinpoint analysis.

The high intake of red meat is well recognized as a major health concern worldwide. It has been recognized as a risk factor for several non-communicable chronic diseases, including stroke. However, previously published studies have not performed a comprehensive analysis of the long-time trend of stroke mortality attributable to high red meat intake in China and South Korea, two countries with similar dietary patterns and changing trends. Therefore, this study aimed to reveal the influence of age, time period, and birth cohort on long-term trends of stroke mortality attributable to high red meat intake and relative gender differences in China and South Korea. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. The age–period–cohort model was used to estimate the effect of age, time period, and birth cohort. The average and annual percent changes were estimated using the joinpoint regression analysis. Results indicated that the overall attributable age-standardized mortality rates of stroke in China decreased by 1.0% (P < 0.05) for female and 0.1% (P > 0.05) for male individuals, compared with a decrease of 4.9% for female and 3.7% for male individuals in South Korea (both P < 0.05). Age–period–cohort analysis revealed that the attributable stroke mortality decreased along with the time period, and increased along with age. Significant gender differences were observed, male individuals in both countries were at higher risk than their female counterparts, especially in China. Joinpoint analysis suggested that the attributable stroke mortality for both genders in South Korea and female individuals in China showed a decreasing trend, while it is stable for male individuals in China. Although prominent reductions were observed during the past decades, the attributable stroke mortality risk in China and South Korea is still high. Our findings indicate that controlling the intake of red meat may be a cost-effective strategy to reduce stroke mortality risk and the corresponding disease burden, especially for Chinese male individuals.

Time trends in the burden of stroke and subtypes attributable to PM2.5 in China from 1990 to 2019.

BackgroundIncreasing studies have found that PM2.5 has large adverse effects on stroke mortality. We want to investigate the long-term trends in the mortality of stroke attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution and household air pollution to provide evidence facilitating the design of policy.MethodsThe deaths data of stroke and its subtypes attributable to PM2.5 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, analyzed by Joinpoint regression software and the age-period-cohort (APC) method to assess the magnitude of the trends in mortality and the temporal trends in the mortality rate by age, period, and cohort.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) attributable to PM2.5 exposure trended downwards, but the trends of ambient particulate matter pollution and household air pollution were opposite. The trends varied among subtypes, the AAPC of intracerebral hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, and subarachnoid hemorrhage attributable to PM2.5 were 0.7, 2.5, and−3.3%, respectively. The longitudinal age curve of the APC model showed that the mortality rates due to PM2.5 exposure increased with age. The period RRs of ischemic stroke due to ambient particulate matter pollution increased significantly. The cohort RRs of ambient particulate matter pollution increased among those born from 1905 to 1990. The net drifts of all subtypes attributable to PM2.5 were below 0, but owing to the increase of ambient particulate matter pollution, the range of the decline was small. Males had higher net drift values, compared with females.ConclusionsAmbient particulate matter pollution has become the main type of PM2.5 leading to stroke in China. PM2.5 exposure is more harmful to ischemic stroke, males, and elderly. Chinese government should pay attention to the long-term impact of ambient air pollution on stroke and take effective public health policies and interventions.

Time Trend of Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 and Analysis Using an Age-Period-Cohort Model.

The aim of this study was to investigate the upper gastrointestinal cancer incidence trend in China from 1990 to 2019 with Joinpoint software and to evaluate the age effect, cohort effect, and period effect using the age–period–cohort model, with the data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. The crude incidence rate (CR) of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China increased from 41.48/100,000 in 1990 to 62.64/100,000 in 2019, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was 1.42 (p < 0.05). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 50.77/100,000 to 37.42/100,000, and the AAPC was −1.12 (p < 0.05). The net drift was −0.83 (p < 0.05), and the local drifts in the 35–79 age groups of males and all age groups of females were less than 0 (p < 0.05). The age effect showed that the upper gastrointestinal cancer onset risk gradually increased with age, the period effect was fundamentally manifested as a downward trend in onset risk after 2000, and the cohort effect indicated the decreased onset risk of the overall birth cohort after 1926. The ASIR of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 showed a downward trend, and the onset risk indicated the age, period, and cohort effects.

The impact of skin cancer prevention efforts in New South Wales, Australia: Generational trends in melanoma incidence and mortality

BackgroundIn Australia, skin cancer awareness campaigns have focused on raising the awareness and consequences of skin cancer and highlighting the importance of utilising sun protection. MethodsTrends in melanoma incidence and mortality have been explored elsewhere in Australia and this study sought to examine the trends in NSW. Anonymised incidence and mortality data for in situ and invasive melanoma from 1988 to 2014 were obtained from the NSW Cancer Registry. Trends of melanoma incidence and mortality were analysed using segmented regression to allow for changes over time. Birth cohort patterns were assessed using age–period–cohort models. ResultsOver the period, incidence of in situ melanoma increased in all age groups although the rates were lowest in those under 40 years of age. Incidence of invasive melanoma was either stable or decreased in people under 60, while it increased in those aged 60 and above, particularly in men. Age–period–cohort analysis revealed decreasing age-specific incidence of invasive melanoma under 40 years of age. Melanoma mortality over the period was stable or decreased in all groups except in men aged 60 or over. Overall, mortality rates generally declined or remained stable particularly in recent years. ConclusionIt is encouraging that rates of invasive melanoma are declining in the younger age cohorts – which could be attributed to both primary prevention efforts with individuals protecting their skin as well as early detection through self assessment and clinician performed skin checks. In addition, whilst it is important to monitor the increasing rates of in situ melanoma, the increase is likely due to early detection and treatment of melanoma that could have progressed to invasive melanoma and therefore detection whilst still in situ is an improved outcome. Overall, the results demonstrate the need to continue to improve the understanding of and compliance with primary skin cancer prevention measures in order to reduce population UVR exposure and overall melanoma incidence.

An ecological study of obesity-related cancer incidence trends in Australia from 1983 to 2017

SummaryBackgroundOverweight and obesity is a growing public health issue as it contributes to the future burden of obesity-related diseases, including cancer, especially in high-income countries. In Australia, 4.3% of all cancers diagnosed in 2013 were attributable to overweight and obesity. Our aim was to examine Australian age-specific incidence trends over the last 35 years for obesity-related cancers based on expert review (colorectal, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, breast in postmenopausal women, uterine, ovary, kidney, thyroid, and multiple myeloma) individually and pooled.MethodsAustralian incidence data for 10 obesity-related cancers among people aged 25–84 years, diagnosed from 1983 to 2017, were obtained from the Australian Cancer Database. We used age–period–cohort modelling and joinpoint analysis to assess trends, estimating incidence rate ratios (IRR) by birth-cohort for each individual cancer and pooled, and the annual percentage change. The analyses were also conducted for non-obesity-related cancers over the same period.FindingsThe total number of cancers where some proportion is obesity-related, diagnosed from 1983-2017, was 1,005,933. This grouping was 34.7% of cancers diagnosed. The IRR of obesity-related cancers increased from 0.77 (95% CI 0.73, 0.81) for the 1903 birth-cohort to 2.95 (95% CI 2.58, 3.38) for the recent 1988 cohort relative to the 1943 cohort. The IRRs of non-obesity related cancers were stable with non-significant decreases in younger cohorts. These trends were broadly similar across sex and age groups.InterpretationThe incidence of obesity-related cancers in Australia has increased by birth-cohort across all age-groups, which should be monitored. Obesity, a public health epidemic, needs to be addressed through increased awareness, policy support and evidence-based interventions.FundingThis research received no specific funding.

Comparison of time trends in the incidence of primary liver cancer between China and the United States: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2019.

China and the United States (US) ranked first and third in terms of new liver cancer cases and deaths globally in 2020. Therefore, a comprehensive assessment of trends in the incidence of primary liver cancer with four major etiological factors between China and the US during the past 30 years with age-period-cohort (APC) analyses is warranted. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019, and period/cohort relative risks were estimated by APC modeling from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, there were 211,000 new liver cancer cases in China and 28,000 in the US, accounting for 39.4% and 5.2% of global liver cancer cases, respectively. For China, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) consecutively decreased before 2005 but increased slightly since then, whereas the ASIR continuously increased in the US. Among the four etiological factors of liver cancer, the fastest reduction in incidence was observed in hepatitis B virus-related liver cancer among Chinese women, and the fastest increase was in nonalcoholic steatosis hepatitis (NASH)-related liver cancer among American men. The greatest reduction in the incidence of liver cancer was observed at the age of 53 years in Chinese men (-5.2%/year) and 33 years in Chinese women (-6.6%/year), while it peaked at 58 years old in both American men and women (4.5%/year vs . 2.8%/year). Furthermore, the period risks of alcohol- and NASH-related liver cancer among Chinese men have been elevated since 2013. Simultaneously, leveled- off period risks were observed in hepatitis C viral-related liver cancer in both American men and women. Currently, both viral and lifestyle factors have been and will continue to play an important role in the time trends of liver cancer in both countries. More tailored and efficient preventive strategies should be designed to target both viral and lifestyle factors to prevent and control liver cancer.

The epidemic of thyroid cancer in China: Current trends and future prediction.

BackgroundThyroid cancer (TC) is one of the most common cancers in China. The aim of this study was to identify the potential age, period, and cohort effect under the long-term trends in TC incidence and mortality, making projections up to 2030.MethodsIncidence and mortality data on TC were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The population predictions were obtained from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2019. An age–period–cohort model was used for the analysis.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the net drift (the overall annual percentage change of TC over time adjusted for age groups) of the TC incidence was 5.01% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.72%, 5.29%) for men and 1.48% (95% CI: 1.14%, 1.82%) for women. The net drift of TC mortality was 1.64% (95% CI: 1.38%, 1.91%) for men and –2.51% (95% CI: –2.77%, –2.26%) for women. Regarding the incidence of TC, both the period and the cohort relative risks (RRs) in men and women showed an overall increasing trend. As to the mortality rate of TC, both the period and cohort RRs in women showed a monotonic declining trend. The period RRs for men decreased after 2015, but the cohort RRs revealed a fluctuating upward pattern. From 2019 to 2030, the TC incidence was projected to rise by 32.4% in men and 13.1% in women, the mortality declining by 13.0% in men and 17.3% in women. The elderly was projected to have an increasing proportion of TC occurrence and deaths.ConclusionsOver the past 30 years, the incidence rate of TC in China has continually increased, and this trend was projected to continue. Although male mortality has increased in the past, it is expected to decline in the future. The proportion of older people among TC occurrence and death was projected to gradually increase, and the difficulties elderly with TC lrequire more attention.

Secular Trends of Mortality and Years of Life Lost Due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Wuhan, China from 2010 to 2019: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been an important public health issue in China. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in mortality and years of life lost (YLL) from COPD, and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort in Wuhan, China from 2010 to 2019. Methods: Data were collected from the cause of death surveillance system in Wuhan. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized YLL rate (ASYR) and the estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the temporal trends. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was adopted to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects. Results: From 2010 to 2019, COPD accounted for 26,051.15 deaths and 394,659.58 person years YLL in Wuhan. Recently, the death burden of COPD in Wuhan has somewhat improved, especially after 2015, with declining trends in ASMR and ASYR. Additionally, the ASMR and ASYR of COPD was higher in males. And these of males showed the overall upward trends, with EAPCs of 1.06 (0.13, 2.00) and 1.21 (0.12, 2.31), respectively, while females showed downward trends since 2010. According to APC model, the age effect of COPD increased with age, and the cohort risk ratios (RRs) followed the overall downward trends. Period RRs for the Wuhan population generally tended to rise and then fall, with females showing a clear downward trend after 2015, while period RRs for males maintained an upward trend throughout the study period. Conclusions: Recently, the death burden from COPD in Wuhan has improved, especially after 2015, with improvements in ASMR, ASYR and period RRs. Sex differences still exist. COPD posed a greater threat to the elderly, especially males. Public health managers should continue to execute more targeted programs to lessen the death burden of COPD in Wuhan.

Lip and Oral Cavity Cancer Burden and Related Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2049.

Simple SummaryChina’s lip and oral cavity cancer burden is rising. The elderly have a relatively heavy disease burden, mainly due to poor oral health awareness, the side effects of other diseases and delayed treatment. Moreover, the incidence of the elderly over 50 years old is predicted to increase further from 2020 to 2049 in China. Males have a heavier disease burden, mainly due to their smoking, drinking and work exposure. Early screening and health intervention policies incorporating key populations and risk factors may deserve the consideration of policy makers to reduce the disease burden.Lip and oral cavity cancer is a common malignancy faced by many developing countries, and the disease burden is high in China. This study explored this cancer burden and its risk factors using data from China in the GBD 2019, along with predicting the incidence trends in 2020–2049. Data on age-standardized rates (ASR), incidence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY), by sex, age and risk factors were collected from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Joinpoint regression and Age–Period–Cohort (APC) models were selected to analyze the epidemic trend of this cancer in China, and descriptive analysis was used for the time trend and age distribution of risk factors. The Bayesian APC model was selected to foresee the incidence trend in 2020–2049. This cancer burden was found to be in an upward trend in China in 1990–2019. The upward trend was more pronounced among men than among women. These cancer deaths and DALYs are overwhelmingly attributable to smoking and drinking. On APC analysis, the younger generation in China demonstrated a lower cancer risk. In 2049, the incidence of this cancer is projected to be 3.99/100,000, 6.07/100,000, 7.37/100,000, 10.49/100,000, 14.82/100,000, 19.19/100,000, 20.71/100,000, 23.64/100,000, 16.42/100,000 and 9.91/100,000 among those aged 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, 85–89, 85–89 and over 95 years, respectively. Disease control policies and early screening should focus on men and the elderly and target different risk factors.