Age Composition Of Population Research Articles

Combining Microsimulation and Agent-based Model for Micro-level Population Dynamics

Population dynamics illustrates the changes of the size and age composition of populations. Modeling and simulation techniques have been used to model the population dynamics, and the developed models are utilized to design and analyze public polices. One classic modeling method is microsimulation. The microsimulation describes the population dynamics at the individual level, and actions conducted by the individuals are generated by stochastic process. An emerging method is agent-based model, which rather focuses on the interactions among individuals and expects to see unexpected situations created from the interactions. Their similar but different approaches can make them to complement weak points of the opponent in population dynamics analysis. From this perspective, This paper proposes a hybrid model structure combining microsimulation and agent-based model for modeling population dynamics. In the proposed model, the microsimulation model takes a role to depict how an individual chooses its behavior based on stochastic process parameterized by real data; the agent-based model incorporates interactions among individuals considering their own states and rules. The case study introduces Korean population dynamics model developed by the proposed approach, and its simulation results show the population changes triggered by a variance of behavior and interaction factors.

Bevölkerungspolitik reloaded: Zwischen BMZ und Bayer

Schlagworter: Entwicklungspolitik, Deutschland, Bevolkerungspolitik, Neomalthusianismus, Demografisierung, Kontrazeptivamarkte, Langzeitverhutungsmittel, offentlich-private Partnerschaften. ----- Population Policy Reloaded: Between BMZ and Bayer. Abstract This paper explores recent changes in German international development policy with regards to population and reproductive health, and connects these to contemporary dynamics in contraceptive markets. While human rights vocabulary is ever-present, countries in the Global South are encouraged to manage their ‘human capital’ in light of population age composition and available resources. Twenty years after the Cairo Conference, key documents and papers indicate a discursive and financial shift towards more explicit Neo-Malthusian approaches. Simultaneously, as evident in major public-private partnerships between pharmaceutical companies, 530 Summaries such as Bayer HealthCare, with the German government and NGOs, there has been a revival of formerly discredited long-term contraceptives. Drawing on policy papers, interviews, and statistical data, this paper highlights the considerable interplay between the reoriented German development policy under the name of ‘population dynamics’ and the interests of pharmaceutical companies in contraceptive markets. Particularly worrying in this context is the almost complete lack of critical scrutiny by civil society organisations or social movements. Keywords: development policy, Germany, population policy, Neo-Malthusianism, demographisation, contraceptive markets, long-term contraceptives, public private partnerships. ----- Bibliographie: Bendix, Daniel/Schultz, Susanne: Bevolkerungspolitik reloaded: Zwischen BMZ und Bayer, PERIPHERIE, 3-2015, S. 447-468. https://doi.org/10.3224/peripherie.v35i140.22998

Bevölkerungspolitik reloaded: Zwischen BMZ und Bayer

Schlagworter: Entwicklungspolitik, Deutschland, Bevolkerungspolitik, Neomalthusianismus, Demografisierung, Kontrazeptivamarkte, Langzeitverhutungsmittel, offentlich-private Partnerschaften. ----- Population Policy Reloaded: Between BMZ and Bayer. Abstract This paper explores recent changes in German international development policy with regards to population and reproductive health, and connects these to contemporary dynamics in contraceptive markets. While human rights vocabulary is ever-present, countries in the Global South are encouraged to manage their ‘human capital’ in light of population age composition and available resources. Twenty years after the Cairo Conference, key documents and papers indicate a discursive and financial shift towards more explicit Neo-Malthusian approaches. Simultaneously, as evident in major public-private partnerships between pharmaceutical companies, 530 Summaries such as Bayer HealthCare, with the German government and NGOs, there has been a revival of formerly discredited long-term contraceptives. Drawing on policy papers, interviews, and statistical data, this paper highlights the considerable interplay between the reoriented German development policy under the name of ‘population dynamics’ and the interests of pharmaceutical companies in contraceptive markets. Particularly worrying in this context is the almost complete lack of critical scrutiny by civil society organisations or social movements. Keywords: development policy, Germany, population policy, Neo-Malthusianism, demographisation, contraceptive markets, long-term contraceptives, public private partnerships. ----- Bibliographie: Bendix, Daniel/Schultz, Susanne: Bevolkerungspolitik reloaded: Zwischen BMZ und Bayer, PERIPHERIE, 3-2015, S. 447-468. https://doi.org/10.3224/peripherie.v35i140.22998

Age and gender composition of western siberian urban population in 1959–1989

Age and gender composition of western siberian urban population in 1959–1989

Вплив потужного промислового навантаження на біологічні показники плітки звичайної (Rutilus rutilus)

Проаналізовано віковий склад, довжину та масу тіла популяцій плітки звичайної (Rutilus rutilus L.) у водоймах із різним рівнем промислового навантаження. Кременчуцьке водосховище, яке формує понад 50% річного промислового вилову R. rutilus в Україні, обрано як водойму з надмірним тиском промислу. Для порівняння взято акваторії природного заповідника «Дніпровсько-Орільський» як приклад водного об’єкта, де тиск промислу мінімізований. Віковий ряд R. rutilus на відкритому плесі водосховищ Дніпра набагато довший, ніж у його придаткових річкових системах. Розмірно-вагові показники вікових груп R. rutilus 6+ – 10+ у водоймі з інтенсивним антропогенним навантаженням статистично достовірно нижчі, ніж в особин на природоохоронних акваторіях. Це можна пояснити наслідком селективної дії традиційного промислу ставними сітками, якими вилучаються особини з більшими темпами росту. На спрямовану елімінацію швидкоростучих особин вказали криві приростів і час настання кульмінації приросту іхтіомаси. Таким чином, потужне промислове навантаження на популяції R. rutilus і активне їх вилучення ставними сітками спричиняє накопичення тугорослих особин.

Efficient statistical estimators and sampling strategies for estimating the age composition of fish

Estimates of age compositions of fish populations or catches that are fundamental inputs to analytical stock assessment models are generally obtained from sample surveys, and multistage cluster sampling of fish is the norm. We use simulations and extensive empirical survey data for Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) to compare the efficiency of estimators that use age–length keys (ALKs) with design-based estimators for estimating age compositions of fish. The design-based weighted ratio estimator produces the most accurate estimates for cluster-correlated data, and an alternative estimator based on a weighted ALK is equivalent under certain constraints. Using simulations to evaluate subsampling strategies, we show that otolith collections from a length-stratified subsample of one fish per 5 cm length bin (∼10 fish total) per haul or trip is sufficient and nearly as efficient as a random subsample of 20 fish. Our study also indicates that the common practice of applying fixed ALKs to length composition data can severely underestimate the variance in estimates of age compositions and that “borrowing” of ALKs developed for other gears, areas, or time periods can cause serious bias.

Validation of a relationship between statolith size and age of larval Great Lakes sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus)

Sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) are parasitic pests in the Great Lakes that have negatively affected game fish populations. Accurate aging of pest species such as sea lampreys can provide estimates of growth and mortality rates, which can direct control efforts. Because growth of larval sea lampreys is both slow and variable, determining age based solely on visual assessments of length-frequency distributions is subject to considerable uncertainty. Otoliths have been used to estimate age in teleosts through annuli counts and otolith size metrics. Lampreys do not have otoliths, having instead an analogous structure called a statolith. Determining age based on statolith annuli counts has been found to be imprecise and inaccurate. Therefore, we evaluated whether statolith size was correlated with ammocoete age using known-age populations of ammocoetes from two Great Lakes streams with contrasting physical conditions that affect larval sea lamprey growth. A morphometric system was used to measure length, width, and height of statoliths from these known-age populations. Statolith width was found to be the measurement that best distinguished the age-classes within the populations. A likelihood-based statistical model was used to assess ammocoete population age composition. Even though statolith width was clearly associated with age, combining statolith width data and length-frequency did not improve estimates of proportions at age relative to those estimated using only length-frequency information.

The distribution, size, and age composition, and growth of Saxidomus purpurata (Sowerby, 1852) (Bivalvia: Veneridae) in Vostok Bay, the Sea of Japan

Patterns of the distribution, the size and age composition of local populations, as well as the growth of the large bivalve Saxidomus purpurata, which is intensely farmed and reared in a number of East Asian countries, were studied for the first time in Russian Far East waters. It was determined that in the Vostok Bay, which is a bay of the second order within the limits of the Peter the Great Bay, S. purpurata forms local populations with densities of up to 7.5 ± 2.7 ind./m2 and a biomass up to 1070.0 ± 384.0 g/m2 at a depth of 1–9 m on mixed bottom substrates of boulders, pebbles, gravel, coquina, and sand of varying degrees of silting. The size and age composition of clam populations varies depending on the local environment; the shell length of the largest specimen was 98.6 mm, the greatest age was 23 years. In the Vostok Bay, the bivalve grew more slowly than off the coast of Korea and China and reached a commercial size (a shell length of 50 mm) later, at an age of 5–7 years. The von Bertalanffy equation describing the growth of S. purpurata in the aggregate sample of individuals from the Vostok Bay, has the form: Lt = 100.1[1 − e−0.1675(t − 0.0504)]. It is assumed that the boundary of the species range goes north from the Peter the Great Bay, Sea of Japan.

Age, growth and demographic characteristics of Sillago flindersi exploited in a multi-species trawl fishery

This study investigated variability in the growth, length, and age compositions and the rates of mortality of Flinders’ sillago Sillago flindersi exploited in a demersal trawl fishery in eastern Australia. Sampling was done over 2 years across three depth strata at two locations approximately 400 km apart. Ageing of sectioned sagittal otoliths indicated that the observed maximum age of females was 6 years and that of males 5 years, that growth was variable and that the von Bertalanffy growth parameters significantly differed according to gender and location. Females attained a greater L ∞ than males, but males displayed greater k values. The L ∞ values of both sexes and the mean length-at-age for fish aged 3–5 years were greater at the location of highest latitude. Length and age compositions differed according to depth, with smaller ( 31 m) strata. S. flindersi appear to use the shallow strata as a juvenile habitat, moving to deeper waters as they grow. This depth stratification between cohorts may reduce intraspecific competition and could potentially be used as a spatial management tool to reduce any fishing-associated impacts on juveniles. Fish between 1 and 3 years old dominated the age compositions of populations combined across all depths, with estimated total mortality ranging between 2.24 and 2.40. Fishing mortality ranged between 1.54 and 1.70 and was more than twice the derived natural mortality. Exploitation rates were approximately 0.70, indicating that the species was heavily fished.

A method for analyzing changing prison populations: explaining the growth of the elderly in prison.

For the past several decades, the U.S. prison system has witnessed a steady and persistent increase in the ages of prison populations. Given the additional costs and burdens placed on prisons as they house older inmates, this aging trend has generated intense interest among policy makers and academics who seek to understand why prison populations are getting older. This article presents a method for evaluating drivers influencing the change in age distributions among prisoners. We define a methodological approach and demonstrate its application using prison data from four states reporting to the Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Corrections Reporting Program. We find that since 2000, the primary driver of overall growth in the elderly populations in prison (defined as inmates over 50) is the increasing admission age of offenders entering prison. Moreover, changes in offense mix and sentence length/time served over the last decade have had significantly less influence on the age composition of prison populations. We also find that the impact of explanatory factors varies across states and offense types. For example, prison admission and exit rates explain much of the change in elderly drug offenders in New York, but not elderly violent offenders, where admission age plays a much stronger explanatory role. Our analysis offers an effective demonstration that supports the use of this method as an important and informative first step toward understanding components of change that affect the problem of prison aging.

Incidence and survival of colorectal carcinoma among permanent residents in Yangpu district of Shanghai, from 2002 to 2012

To clarify the incidence and survival of colorectal carcinoma (CRC) patients among permanent residents in Yangpu district of Shanghai, from 2002 to 2012. Data of CRC patients in permanent residents of Yangpu district were collected from the database of the registration and management system in Shanghai city. Temporal trend in the incidence of CRC was analyzed by using Annual Percent Change (APC) model. Kaplan-Meier analysis with Log-rank testing was employed to estimate the survival. Incidence and mortality rates were standardized on age composition of standard population from 2000 nationwide census. A total of 5 881 CRC cases were diagnosed from 2002 to 2012 with crude incidence as 50.60/10(5) and standardized one as 31.21/10(5). The crude incidence rates of colon cancer and rectal cancer were 31.09/10(5) and 18.27/10(5), respectively and the standardized rates were 14.49/10(5) and 8.83/10(5), respectively. The incidence rates of colon cancer were not significantly different between different gender. However, the incidence of rectal cancer in males was significantly higher than in females (P < 0.001). The incidence rates of CRC significantly increased in the age group older than 50 years. However, the standardized incidence rate did not change significantly(APC = 0.39). A total of 3 735 cases died of CRC in this period. The annual crude mortality of CRC was 31.35/10(5) with the standardized rate as 13.72/10(5). The mortality kept increasing significantly in the population older than 60 years. Mortality of rectal cancer was significantly higher in males than in females (P < 0.001). The 5-year survival rates in both colon cancer and rectal cancer patients were 48.88% and 54.16%, respectively. Survivals were significantly higher in those who had received surgical treatments than in those without surgical treatments (colon cancer: 58.10% vs. 37.22%, P < 0.001; rectal cancer:66.18% vs. 39.37%, P < 0.001). Age seemed to have contributed to an increased morbidity and mortality of CRC in Yangpu district of Shanghai. The mortality of CRC appeared higher than the incidence. Surgical treatment could significantly prolong the survival of CRC patients.

Incidence and survival analysis of renal cell carcinoma patients among permanent residents in Yangpu district of Shanghai during 2002-2012

Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer patients among permanent residents in Yangpu district of Shanghai from January 2002to December 2012.Methods The data of bladder cancer patients among the permanent residents of Yangpu district were obtained from the database of cancer registration and management system in Shanghai.The temporal trend in the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer was assessed using annual percent change(APC) model.Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank test was performed for survival analysis.The incidence and mortality were standardized with age composition of standard population from a nationwide census carried out in 2000.Results A total of 1 252cases with bladder cancer were newly diagnosed between 2002and 2012in Yangpu district,and it accounted for 2.69%ofthe total patients with malignant diseases.The annual crude incidence of bladder cancer was 10.51/105,with that of males being significantly higher than that of females(15.59/105 vs 5.18/105,P0.01).The standardized incidence was 4.83/105, with that of males being also significantly higher than that of females(7.26/105 vs 2.32/105,P0.01).The crude incidence of bladder cancer showed a significant increase(APC=4.14,P0.01)from 2002to 2012;however,the standardized incidence showed no significant increase.The incidence increased rapidly after 50years old.A total of 690cases died of bladder cancer during the study period.The annual crude mortality of bladder cancer was 8.61/105 in males,which was significantly higher than that in females(2.84/105,P0.01).The standardized martality was 3.64/105 in males and 1.15/105 in females(P 0.01).The crude mortality of bladder cancer were increased significantly and the standardized one did not alter significantly during this period.The 5-year survival rate of the newly diagnosed bladder cancer patients was 63.15%,with that of surgically treated ones being significantly higher that of non-surgically treated ones(74.31% vs 51.80%,P0.01). Conclusion The crude incidence and mortality of bladder cancer are greatly increased during 2002-2012.Surgical treatment can significantly prolong the survival of bladder cancer patients.Early diagnosis and prompt surgical resection can improve the overall survival of bladder cancer patients.

НЕКОТОРЫЕ ДАННЫЕ ПО МОРФОЛОГИИ, ЧИСЛЕННОСТИ И ПОЛОВОЗРАСТНОЙ СТРУКТУРЕ ПОПУЛЯЦИЙ ПРЕСНОВОДНЫХ ЧЕРЕПАХ В ВОДОЕМАХ АРИДНЫХ ЗОН ВОСТОЧНОГО АЗЕРБАЙДЖАНА

Data on the morphology, number, age and sex composition of populations of freshwater turtles Emys orbicularis Linnaeus, 1758 and Mauremys caspica (Gmelin, 1774) in water bodies of arid regions of East Azerbaijan are presented. The number of females was higher than the number of males in all studied samples; the prevalence of senior age-grades was registered in the majority of the Caspian turtle samples.

Structure of colonies in the northern mole vole, Ellobius talpinus (Rodentia, Cricetidae)

The structure of two northern mole vole colonies from northern Chelyabinsk oblast (the Kunashak colony, 1981–1983) and southern Kurgan oblast (the Kurtamysh colony, 1985–1999) has been analyzed with respect to the number and composition of families, seasonal and annual population dynamics, age and sex composition and sex ratio, individual life span, migrations, breeding, and reproductive potential. The Kunashak colony is at the northwestern boundary of the species range, and its population is monomorphic (all animals are of the black color morph). The Kurtamysh colony is located in an optimal habitat, and its population is polymorphic, consisting of animals of three color morphs (black, brown, and transitional). Consideration is given to certain specific features of northern mole voles belonging to different color morphs.

International Spotlight: Developing a Gerontological Social Policy Agenda for Turkey

From 1960 to 2013, the population of Turkey increased almost threefold, with older adults aged 65 and older increasing almost sevenfold. In light of the demographic revolution in the age composition of world populations, we investigated the following research questions from the perspective of Turkish gerontologists: What are the conditions of older people based on sociological factors such as gender, partnership status, income, education, health, religion, and ethnicity? What should Turkey's gerontological agenda contain for the short term, mid-term, and long term, particularly in view of the rapidly changing nature of political, social, and economic life in the country? By 2025, adults (aged 40-65) will make up the largest population group in Turkey's history. It is time for Turkey to embrace this demographic gift and identify its own gerontological agenda to pave the way for social justice and social citizenship.

Impact of trematodes on the population structure and shell shape of the estuarine mud snail Hydrobia ulvae from a Southern European estuary

AbstractThe occurrence of trematodes within the gastropod Hydrobia ulvae was studied in two areas (a Zostera noltii bed and a eutrophic area) in the Mondego Estuary, Portugal. The aim was to assess trematode infections across snail age classes, as well as to investigate any influence of parasitism on the shell shape and size of these gastropods. In the Z. noltii bed, infection occurred in snails with shell height of 1.5–6 mm, but a higher prevalence was seen in intermediate size classes (3–5 mm). Infected individuals were never found among the elder gastropods. In the eutrophic area, infection was commonly observed within small individuals (1.6–2.5 mm), as large individuals were rarely found. The warm temperate climate in this coastal system may cause infected specimens to die before they can grow to larger dimensions, in contrast to Northern European populations. The frequency of snails with thin, distorted and corroded shells was higher among infected than non‐infected snails. Infected individuals were frequently colonized by epibionts that may have additional detrimental effects and probably promote shell erosion. Infection with trematodes and their influence on snail size needs consideration in the evaluation of parameters related to population dynamics and population structure. If the implications of parasite infection are ignored, inadequate decisions about ecosystem management may be taken, resulting mainly from erroneous assessment of population structure, age composition and ecological longevity. The role of parasites is especially important to consider for systems under environmental stress.

Age polyethism in the swarm-founding wasp Metapolybia miltoni (Andena &amp; Carpenter) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae; Polistinae, Epiponini)

Division of labor in Epiponini is associated with age polyethism and individual task specialization. We observed worker activities in three colonies of Metapoybia miltoni in Brazil. We analyzed differences of task allocation between age groups. Old workers tend to forage more than young, but age polyethism was less evident in other tasks. Age composition of population could be a determinant factor in task allocation. Possibly workers are allocate to perform tasks according to colony needs, and no to individual’s age. Consider age population in studies of division of labor could help to understand how colonies respond to different situations.

Moscow identity and identities of Muscovites

The paper considers the structural specifics of the Muscovites identities. A comparative analysis of the interrelationship of state (Russia), city (Moscow), and ethnic identities is performed based on the data of sociological surveys. Specific features of Moscow identitities are studied in detail, depending on the age, social and professional composition of Moscow population, and the district of residence. It was concluded that to promote the solidarity of the Moscow community, it is not enough to rely on the feeling of belonging to Moscow and Russia, and the support of civic awareness is required, strengthened by social policies of Moscow authorities.

Is Demography Destiny? Urban Population Change and Economic Vitality of Future Cities

The growth of cities has attracted considerable scholarly attention during the last decade as it is becoming clear that powerful agglomeration forces are reinforcing the role of cities as the engines of economic growth. Close to 4 billion people live in cities, about 55 per cent of the world's population. While population growth rates are declining and the world's population is likely to level off from the middle of the 21st century, probably ending up around 10 billion, further urbanization is expected to continue. Another 3 billion people will become urban citizens this century. At the same time no corner of the world will be sheltered from sweeping demographic changes due to population ageing and increasing migration. Such changes will be amplified in cities. In this paper we combine UN population projections and migration data with our own assumptions to derive projections of age composition and birthplace composition of urban populations by continent. We also briefly address the consequences of these demographic trends for future urban economic vitality. Particular attention is paid to the impacts of demographic changes on urban creativity and innovation. We conclude that, with the right policies in place, such demographic changes enhance rather than impede the future prosperity of the urban world.

Analysis of model-based PM2.5 emission factors for on-road mobile sources in Mexico

This study investigates the effects of using the US-EPA MOVES2010a model for estimating PM2.5 emission factors in the Mexican vehicle fleet; the results are compared with the current PM2.5 emissions estimates in the 2005 Mexican National Emissions Inventory (MNEI). Our results show that model-based PM2.5 emissions factors updated from recent studies can have significant impacts on the estimated PM2.5 emissions from mobile sources in Mexico. Higher fractions of older vehicles tend to increase PM2.5 emissions estimates using MOVES2010a with respect to the 2005 MNEI estimates; however, the overall impact on PM emissions varies depending on the vehicle population and vehicle age composition for each Mexican state fleet. These effects are primarily driven by the higher PM2.5 emission factors from the gasoline-powered vehicles and by the high fractions of older gasoline and diesel vehicles. The results also indicate that the estimated MOVES2010a PM2.5 emission factors for Mexico were particularly sensitive to vehicle speed, ambient temperature and sulfur content, but not the relative humidity. There is a strong need to better understand the characteristics of fine particulate matter (PM) emitted from gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles in major urban areas in Mexico.