Aftershock Activity Research Articles

Postseismic processes in the region of the july 29, 2021 Chigni earthquake, Alaska. Part I: modeling results

We analyze the postseismic processes in the region of the Mw 8.2 Chignik earthquake, which occurred on July 29, 2021. Using the seismic rupture surface model constructed in our previous paper (Konvisar et al., 2023), we have simulated the viscoelastic relaxation process. The results of the simulation have shown that reducing the viscosity of the asthenosphere to 1018 Pa ‧ s in the calculations gives displacement velocities close to those recorded at the GPS coastal points. However, the displacements on islands close to the earthquake source region differ significantly not only in magnitude but also in direction. At the same time, the constructed model of the postseismic creep is closely consistent with the GPS displacement data and with the LOS (line-of-sight) displacement map derived from radar images acquired from the descending orbit of Sentinel 1A satellite. We also analyze temporal variations of the gravity field in the earthquake region. The obtained coseismic anomaly agrees with the anomaly calculated from the rupture surface model. Due to the insufficiently long series of gravity models after the earthquake, it is not yet possible to isolate the postseismic anomaly. The analysis of the postseismic processes is continued in the second part of this work (Smirnov et al., 2024), where we present the compare the time evolution of the postseismic displacements of various GPS sites with the aftershock activity, which allows us to draw conclusions about the creep nature of the postseismic processes in the source region of the Chignik earthquake.

Postseismic processes in the region of the july 29, 2021 Chignik earthquake, Alaska. Part II: temporal evolution of displacements and correlation with aftershock activity

Postseismic displacements in the source region of the July 29, 2021 Chignik M8.2 earthquake, Alaska, are analyzed based on the data from the GPS network sites. It is shown that these displacements have a nature of a postseismic creep (afterslip). The rate of postseismic displacements of the points on the Earth’s surface (GPS sites) decreases with time by the power law close to 1/t, where t is time after the earthquake. On the time interval of two years, the displacement magnitudes increase in time by the law of logarithmic creep. Using the regional catalog of the Alaska earthquakes, we have analyzed the aftershocks of the Chignik earthquake. The analysis has shown that the postseismic displacements at different GPS sites are proportional to the displacements in the seismotectonic flow of the rock mass caused by residual displacements in the aftershock sources. This allows the total displacements in the aftershock sources to be considered as produced by a single mechanism of postseismic creep deformation in the source region of the Chignik earthquake.

The movement pattern changes of population following a disaster: Example of the Aegean Sea earthquake of October 2020

Unexpected seismic events can have a significant impact on our daily lives. Examining post-disaster population movement patterns contributes to disaster response and recovery operations. While most studies analyze population movement or displacement data, only a few examine multi-level movement patterns and consider public transportation demand. This paper aims to analyze changes in movement patterns following a major earthquake that severely affected İzmir in Türkiye, mainly using movement data from the Data for Good platform of Meta. According to the findings, on the first day following the earthquake, those traveling within İzmir considered the areas least damaged to be safer, despite the higher seismic intensity. The timeframe alignment between aftershock activity and the number of people traveling within İzmir suggests the routine movement pattern within the city was regained as the aftershocks decreased day by day. Unlike intra-city travel routines, there was an increase in the number of people moving to summer houses, located far from the center of İzmir. By November 2, 2020, three days after the earthquake, intra-city movements reached a new normal, as confirmed by public transportation use. However, intra-city travel patterns were impacted for approximately one month. This study reveals key findings from the evaluation of post-earthquake movements to improve disaster management decision making and aid crisis response and recovery operations.

Postseismic Processes in the Region of the July 29, 2021 Chignik Earthquake, Alaska: Part II. Temporal Evolution of Displacements and Correlation with Aftershock Activity

Postseismic Processes in the Region of the July 29, 2021 Chignik Earthquake, Alaska: Part II. Temporal Evolution of Displacements and Correlation with Aftershock Activity

Synthesis of Current Seismicity and Tectonics Along the 1857 Mw7.9 Fort Tejon Earthquake Rupture and the Southernmost San Andreas Fault, California, USA

AbstractWe evaluate seismicity and tectonics along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in southern California to elucidate ongoing near‐field crustal deformation processes. The principal slip surfaces (PSSs) or the fault core that accommodate major earthquakes, form the boundary between the tectonic plates. We analyze seismicity catalogs extending back to 1857, 1932, and 1981 with progressively improved magnitude of completeness and spatial resolution. The 1857 to present statewide catalog that is complete at M5.5+ documents minimal aftershock activity for the Mw7.9 1857 and 1906 Mw7.8 San Francisco earthquakes. The higher quality 1932 and 1981 catalogs show that the PSSs (the rupture zone) of the 1857 Mw7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake exhibits remarkable seismic quiescence both in the core and in the adjacent extended‐damage zone. Further south, the fault core is still aseismic but the shape of the SAF is more complex, and the rate of adjacent seismicity is much higher. This fault complexity and the seismicity rate are larger the more the strike of the SAF deviates from the Pacific plate velocity‐vector direction. The focal mechanisms of the SAF adjacent earthquakes are also heterogeneous and rarely have strikes and dips that are consistent with slip on the nearby PSSs. We infer that the southern SAF is locked, and a lack of seismicity at the core of the fault may be a standard feature of faults that almost exclusively accommodate high‐slip rates by producing major earthquakes. Correspondingly future aftershock sequences of major earthquakes on the southern SAF will likely have below average aftershock productivity.

Spatiotemporal characteristics and earthquake statistics of the 2020 and 2022 adjacent earthquake sequences in North Aegean Sea (Greece)

The two moderate earthquakes that occurred close and to the north of the North Aegean Trough (NAT) on 26 September 2020 (Mw5.3) and 16 January 2022 (Mw5.4), both followed by aftershock activity, are examined. Seismic activity along the NAT and its parallel branches is continuous and remarkable, with numerous strong instrumental (M≥6.0) earthquakes. Yet, the frequency of moderate (5.0≤M<6.0) earthquakes outside these major fault branches is rather rare and therefore their investigation provides the optimal means to decipher the seismotectonic properties of the broader area. The temporal and spatial proximity of the two seismic excitations from late September of 2020 through early 2022, intrigues for exhaustive investigation of seismic activity with the employment of earthquake relocation techniques, moment tensor solutions and statistical analysis. Our research revealed that this seismic activity purely falls inside the Mainshock – Aftershock type, with fast aftershock decay rates and moderate productivity. According to our findings, the two seismic sequences, despite their close proximity, exhibit distinctive features as a result of the intricate stress field generated at the western termination of the NAF system in an extensional domain.

Fluid-driven fault nucleation, rupture processes, and permeability evolution in oshima granite — Preliminary results and acoustic emission datasets

This study investigated the fault nucleation and rupture processes driven by stress and fluid pressure in fine-grained granite by monitoring acoustic emissions (AEs). Through detailed analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of the AE hypocenter, P-wave velocity, stress-strain, and other experimental observation data under different confining pressures for stress-driven fractures and under different water injection conditions for fluid-driven fractures, it was found that fluid has the following effects: 1) complicating the fault nucleation process, 2) exhibiting episodic AE activity corresponding to fault branching and the formation of multiple faults, 3) extending the spatiotemporal scale of nucleation processes and pre-slip, and 4) reducing the dynamic rupture velocity and stress drop. The experiments also show that 1) during the fault nucleation process, the b-value for AEs changes from 1 to 1.3 to 0.5 before dynamic rupture, and then rapidly recovers to around 1–1.2 during aftershock activity and 2) the hydraulic diffusivity gradually increases from an initial pre-rupture order of 0.1 ​m2/s to 10–100 ​m2/s after dynamic rupture. These results provide a reasonable fault pre-slip model, indicating that hydraulic fracturing promotes shear slip before dynamic rupture, as well as laboratory-scale insights into ensuring the safety and effectiveness of hydraulic fracturing operations related to activities such as geothermal development, evaluating the seismic risk induced by water injection, and further researching the precursory preparation process for deep fluid-driven or fluid-involved natural earthquakes. The publicly available dataset is expected to be used for various purposes, including 1) as training data for artificial intelligence related to microseismic data processing and analysis, 2) predicting the remaining time before rock fractures, and 3) establishing models and assessment methods for the relationship between microseismic characteristics and rock hydraulic properties, which will deepen our understanding of the interaction mechanisms between fluid migration and rock deformation and fracture.

Analysis of the Fractal Dimension, b-value, Slip Ratio, and Decay Rate of Aftershock Seismicity Following the 6 February 2023 (Mw 7.8 and 7.5) Türkiye Earthquakes

On 6 February 2023, Türkiye experienced a pair of consecutive earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw 7.8 and 7.5, and accompanied by an intense aftershock sequence. These seismic events were particularly impactful on the segments of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), causing extensive damage to both human life and urban centers in Türkiye and Syria. This study explores the analysis of a dataset spanning almost one year following the Turkiye mainshocks, including 471 events with a magnitude of completeness (Mc) ≥ 4.4. We employed the maximum likelihood approach to estimate the b-value and Omori-Utsu parameters (K, c, and p-values). The estimated b-value is 1.21 ± 0.1, indicating that the mainshocks occurred in a region characterized by elevated stress levels, leading to a sequence of aftershocks of larger magnitudes due to notable irregularities in the rupture zone. The aftershock decay rate (p-value = 1.1 ± 0.04) indicates a rapid decrease in stress levels following the main shocks. However, the c-value of 0.204 ± 0.058 would indicate a relatively moderate or low initial productivity of aftershocks. Furthermore, the k-value of 76.75 ± 8.84 suggests that the decay of aftershock activity commenced within a range of approximately 68 to 86 days following the mainshocks. The fractal dimension (Dc) was assessed using the correlation integral method, yielding a value of 0.99 ± 0.03. This implies a tendency toward clustering in the aftershock seismicity and a linear configuration of the epicenters. The slip ratio during the aftershock activity was determined to be 0.75, signifying that 75% of the total slip occurred in the primary rupture, with the remaining fraction distributed among secondary faults. The methodologies and insights acquired in this research can be extended to assist in forecasting aftershock occurrences for future earthquakes, thus offering crucial data for future risk assessment.

Comparison of statistical low-frequency earthquake activity models

Slow earthquakes are slow fault slip events. Quantifying and monitoring slow earthquake activity characteristics are important, because they may change before large earthquakes occur. Statistical seismicity models are useful for quantifying seismicity characteristics. However, no standard statistical model exists for slow earthquake activity. This study used a high-quality catalog of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs), a type of slow earthquake, in the Nankai subduction zone from April 2004 to August 2015 and conducted the first comparison of existing statistical LFE activity models to determine which model better describes LFE activity. Based on this comparison, this study proposes a new hybrid model that incorporates existing model features. The new model considers the LFE activity history in a manner similar to the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and represents the LFE aftershock rate (subsequent LFE occurrence rate) with a small number of model parameters, as in the Omori–Utsu aftershock law for regular earthquakes. The results show that the proposed model outperforms other existing models. However, the new model cannot reproduce a feature of LFE activity: the sudden cessation of intense LFE bursts. This is because the new model superimposes multiple aftershock activities and predicts extremely high seismicity rates during and after the LFE bursts. I suggest that reproducing and successfully predicting the sudden cessation of intense LFE bursts is critical for the further improvement of statistical LFE activity models. In addition, the empirical equations formulated in this study for the LFE aftershock rates may be useful for future statistical and physical modeling of LFE activity.Graphical

Temporal Characteristics of the February 6, 2023 MW7.8, Turkey Earthquake Aftershock Sequence

The devastating earthquake with moment magnitude MW7.8, (local magnitude ML=7.5) which occurred in the East Anatolian Fault Zone, westwards of Gaziantep, Turkey on February 6, 2023 was followed by an intensive aftershock activity. Studying time distribution of aftershocks is important for understanding physics of the earthquake generation process.
 In the present study temporal pattern of aftershock sequence of the 2023 MW7.8 Turkey earthquake is analyzed. Because of the factors such as location and radiation pattern and the cumulative nature of building damage, aftershocks can cause more damage than the main shock. The temporal clustering of aftershocks is a dominant non-random element of the seismicity, so when the clusters are removed, the remaining activity can be modelled (as first approximation) as a Poisson process.
 On the assumption that aftershocks are distributed in time as a non-stationary Poisson process, we use the maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters (K, c and p) of the modified Omori formula. For testing the goodness of fit between the aftershock occurrence and different statistical models, a transformation from the time scale t to a frequency-linearized time scale τ is applied. Akaike's information criteria is used to select the best model for the temporal distribution of aftershocks.
 It has been found that temporal distribution of the 2023 Turkey earthquake aftershocks is dominated by the classic power law decay in time and suggests the existence of secondary aftershock activity.

The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas

Abstract. In some instances, a strong aftershock can cause more damage than the mainshock. Ignoring the influence of aftershocks may lead to the underestimation of the seismic hazard of some areas. Taking Xichang and its surrounding areas as an example and based on the Seismic ground motion parameters zonation map of China (GB 18306-2015), this study used the Monte Carlo method to simulate synthetic mainshock sequences. Additionally, the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones (Omi–R–J) aftershock activity model is used to simulate the aftershock sequences that follow mainshocks above a certain magnitude threshold. Then, the mainshock and the aftershocks are combined to calculate the regional seismic hazard using ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Finally, the influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis is examined and considered. The results show that in areas with moderate to strong seismic backgrounds, the influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %. These results suggest that the impact of aftershocks should be properly considered for future probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, especially in areas with moderate to strong seismic activity backgrounds and in areas prone to secondary disasters such as landslides and mudslides.

Background earthquakes and aftershock sequences of the strongest intraplate earthquakes in Central Asia

Within the analyzed observation period (1971–2021), the values of the total magnitude of the scalar seismic moment obtained from the aftershocks of the strongest earthquakes (Мw ≥ 7.6) Asia (φ=20–50 N, λ=60–105° E), are weakly correlated with the total magnitude of the scalar seismic moment of background seismicity in the region of the main earthquake. A high level of seismic activity is manifested in the zones of large active faults and is reflected in the total magnitude of the scalar seismic moment of aftershock sequences. The types of movements in the foci of the main events do not affect the degree of aftershock activity (the total values of the scalar seismic moment) and occur at different background levels. Over the past 50 years, the magnitude of the strongest earthquakes has increased compared to the previous fifty-year period.

Deep-Seated Fluids in Thermal Waters Before and After the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes.

Noble gases, oxygen-hydrogen isotope ratios, and ion compositions were measured at three sampling points (KUM, OTN, and ASO) from December 2013 to July 2021. The 3He/4He values at the three sampling points remained stable in the range of 3-4 Ra throughout the observation period, suggesting that the supply of deep-seated gases to the aquifer was stable. The 4He/20Ne values of KUM and OTN indicate that the supply of surface-source fluids to the aquifer decreased relative to that of deep-seated fluids at KUM and OTN. In contrast, in the ASO site, both the surface- and deep-seated fluids supplied to the aquifer were stable. The δD-δ18O relationship indicated the supply of deep-seated water to the KUM and OTN aquifers but not to the ASO aquifer. Nevertheless, the δD-δ18O relationship remained stable throughout the observation period, suggesting that the supply of deep-seated water to the three stations was stable. The Li/Cl and 1/Cl relationships for the three sampling points were plotted within a narrow range throughout the observation period, suggesting that the groundwater recharge was stable. Neither spikes nor step changes owing to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake were observed in any of the data. These results indicate that the KUM and OTN aquifers are constantly supplied with deep fluids from the fluid-rich zone beneath the Kumamoto region, and that only deep-seated gas was supplied to the ASO aquifer. We also confirmed that these supply conditions were unaffected by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake or the subsequent aftershock activity.

2023 Earthquake Doublet in Türkiye Reveals the Complexities of the East Anatolian Fault Zone: Insights from Aftershock Patterns and Moment Tensor Solutions

Abstract The East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) is a 700-km-long left-lateral transform fault system along the boundary between the Anatolian and Arabian plates. In the interseismic period, the eastern segments of the EAFZ display relatively uniform seismic activity, whereas the western segments exhibit seismic gaps, localized clusters, and extensive diffuse zones. Hence, our understanding of the geometry and kinematics of the western and northern segments remain limited. The occurrences of the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş on the main branch and Mw 7.6 Elbistan earthquakes on the northern branch have led to complex aftershock activity shedding light on the nature of these relatively silent segments. In this study, to better understand the complexities of the fault, we constructed a comprehensive catalog of ∼32,000 earthquakes that occurred between 6 February 2023 and 30 March 2023, using a deep-neural-network-based picker. In addition, 170 earthquake source mechanisms with Mw 3.5+ were obtained from regional moment tensor inversion. The spatial distribution of the aftershocks shows that most of the activity clusters around the fault bends and major depressions. Previously unmapped and inactive secondary faults of varying lengths are identified within these geometrical complexities. The new seismological observations provide compelling evidence of extension along the Karasu valley, compression occurring along the Erkenek segment, reactivation of basin faults near the Narlı fault zone and the persistent shallow seismic creep of the Pütürge segment. The analysis of seismicity and earthquake source mechanisms along the northern branch reveals the structures of previously inactive faults, both near the extensional Göksun bend in the west and the compressional Nurhak fault complex in the east. In summary, we illustrate the intricacies of previously quiet segments of the EAFZ and aim to gain a deeper understanding of how secondary faults and geometrical discontinuities along the EAFZ played a role in shaping the 2023 Türkiye doublet earthquakes.

Elevated collapse risk based on decaying aftershock hazard and damaged building fragilities

This article proposes a framework to support postearthquake building safety and reoccupancy decisions by quantifying the change in building collapse risk following a mainshock earthquake event. This risk may be exacerbated by both an increase in seismic hazard due to aftershock activity and a reduction in building collapse resistance due to structural damage. To address these factors, the framework is based on a hazard that includes (1) both the steady-state and the aftershock occurrence rates, that is, the elevated hazard that accounts for the dependence on the mainshock magnitude and the aftershock rate that decays over time, and (2) revised collapse fragility functions that account for structural damage sustained during the mainshock. The framework is capable of addressing region-specific questions such as (1) What are the mainshock magnitudes for which aftershocks pose a life-safety concern? (2) How long does it take for the elevated risk due to aftershocks to dissipate? and (3) What gaps in current knowledge deserve further attention from the earthquake engineering and seismology communities? The framework addresses these questions for a 20-story building in San Francisco, assuming three different, hypothetical mainshock events of magnitudes 7,7.5, and 8 M W on the San Andreas fault. This is followed by a parametric study that considers a range of buildings and provides a graphical representation of the elevated risk to inform building evaluation (tagging) decisions, based on the intact building’s collapse capacity, the amount of structural damage, and the length of time after the mainshock.

Largest Aftershock Nucleation Driven by Afterslip During the 2014 Iquique Sequence

AbstractVarious earthquake models predict that aseismic slip modulates the seismic rupture process but actual observations of such seismic‐aseismic interaction are scarce. We analyze seismic and aseismic processes during the 2014 Iquique earthquake sequence. High‐rate Global Positioning System displacements demonstrate that most of the early afterslip is located downdip of the M 8.1 mainshock and is accompanied by decaying aftershock activity. An intriguing secondary afterslip peak is located ∼120 km south of the mainshock epicenter. The area of this secondary afterslip peak likely acted as a barrier to the propagating mainshock rupture and delayed the M 7.6 largest aftershock, which occurred 27 hr later. Interevent seismicity in this secondary afterslip area ended with a M 6.1 near the largest aftershock epicenter, kicking the largest aftershock rupture in the same area. Hence, the interevent afterslip likely promoted the largest aftershock nucleation by destabilizing its source area, favoring a rate‐dependent cascade‐up model.

Automated Assessment of Hazards of Aftershocks of the Mw 7.8 Earthquake in Turkey of February 6, 2023*

—This paper analyzes the use of the automated aftershock hazards assessment system (AFCAST) through the example of a series of aftershocks of the Mw 7.8 earthquake in Turkey of February 6, 2023 (the Pazarcik earthquake). The paper presents automated estimates of the aftershock activity area, the magnitude of the strongest aftershock, and the duration of the hazardous period, yielded using data on the main shock and on the first aftershocks.

Insights into Very Early Afterslip Associated with the 2021 M 8.2 Chignik, Alaska Earthquake Using Subdaily GNSS Solutions

Based on subdaily kinematic GNSS solutions, the fault slip properties during the very early postseismic phase after the 2021 M 8.2 Chignik earthquake are investigated in this paper. The very early postseismic deformations captured by near-field GNSS sites can be well depicted by the power model. The comparison of afterslip determined by daily and subdaily GNSS solutions suggests that neglecting very early afterslip can result in the underestimation of postseismic slip. Compared with coseismic slip, the cumulative afterslip of the first 24 h is mainly focused in the southeast of the hypocenter, and the shallow updip afterslip appears after this earthquake. The spatio-temporal evolution of the afterslip reveals that the patch of afterslip is immediately generated after the earthquake, and then the postseismic slip gradually grows along the afterslip patch. The magnitude of the afterslip patch varies remarkably within the 24 h following the earthquake, especially in the first several hours. Meanwhile, the spatio-temporal patterns of aftershocks and afterslip exhibit strong similarity during the first 24 h, suggesting that very early afterslip may be a possible driving factor of aftershocks. Moreover, most of the afterslip patches and aftershocks occurring immediately after this earthquake are situated in the area covered by positive Coulomb Stress Change (CSC), which implies that the immediate afterslip and aftershock activities can be influenced by the coseismic CSC. The following afterslip process further releases coseismic CSC and then influences the spatio-temporal variations of aftershock activities. Thus, the afterslip may be a possible triggering mechanism of very early aftershocks for this earthquake, alongside the effects of the CSC generated by coseismic rupture.

Statistical Seismic Analysis by b-Value and Occurrence Time of the Latest Earthquakes in Italy

The study reported in this paper concerns the temporal variation in the b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude law, applied to the earthquakes that struck Italy from 2009 to 2016 in the geographical areas of L’Aquila, the Emilia Region, and Amatrice–Norcia. Generally, the b-value varies from one region to another dependent on earthquake incidences. Higher values of this parameter are correlated to the occurrence of low-magnitude events spread over a wide geographical area. Conversely, a lower b-value may lead to the prediction of a major earthquake localized along a fault. In addition, it is observed that each seismic event has a different “occurrence time”, which is a key point in the statistical study of earthquakes. In particular, its results are absolutely different for each specific event, and may vary from years to months or even just a few hours. Hence, both short- and long-term precursor phenomena have to be examined. Accordingly, the b-value analysis has to be performed by choosing the best time windows to study the foreshock and aftershock activities.

Automated Assessment of Hazards of Aftershocks of the <i>M<sub>W</sub></i> 7.8 Earthquake in Turkey of February 6, 2023

Abstract—This paper analyzes the use of the automated aftershock hazards assessment system (AFCAST) through the example of a series of aftershocks of the Mw 7.8 earthquake in Turkey of February 6, 2023 (the Pazarcik earthquake). The paper presents automated estimates of the aftershock activity area, the magnitude of the strongest aftershock, and the duration of the hazardous period, yielded using data on the main shock and on the first aftershocks.