The movement pattern changes of population following a disaster: Example of the Aegean Sea earthquake of October 2020

Abstract

Unexpected seismic events can have a significant impact on our daily lives. Examining post-disaster population movement patterns contributes to disaster response and recovery operations. While most studies analyze population movement or displacement data, only a few examine multi-level movement patterns and consider public transportation demand. This paper aims to analyze changes in movement patterns following a major earthquake that severely affected İzmir in Türkiye, mainly using movement data from the Data for Good platform of Meta. According to the findings, on the first day following the earthquake, those traveling within İzmir considered the areas least damaged to be safer, despite the higher seismic intensity. The timeframe alignment between aftershock activity and the number of people traveling within İzmir suggests the routine movement pattern within the city was regained as the aftershocks decreased day by day. Unlike intra-city travel routines, there was an increase in the number of people moving to summer houses, located far from the center of İzmir. By November 2, 2020, three days after the earthquake, intra-city movements reached a new normal, as confirmed by public transportation use. However, intra-city travel patterns were impacted for approximately one month. This study reveals key findings from the evaluation of post-earthquake movements to improve disaster management decision making and aid crisis response and recovery operations.