African Swine Fever Transmission Research Articles

Stochastic modelling of African swine fever in wild boar and domestic pigs: Epidemic forecasting and comparison of disease management strategies

African swine fever (ASF), caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV), is highly virulent in domestic pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa), causing up to 100% mortality. The recent epidemic of ASF in Europe has had a serious economic impact and poses a threat to global food security. Unfortunately, there is no effective treatment or vaccine against ASFV, limiting the available disease management strategies. Mathematical models allow us to further our understanding of infectious disease dynamics and evaluate the efficacy of disease management strategies. The ASF Challenge, organised by the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food, and the Environment, aimed to expand the development of ASF transmission models to inform policy makers in a timely manner. Here, we present the model and associated projections produced by our team during the challenge. We developed a stochastic model combining transmission between wild boar and domestic pigs, which was calibrated to synthetic data corresponding to different phases describing the epidemic progression. The model was then used to produce forward projections describing the likely temporal evolution of the epidemic under various disease management scenarios. Despite the interventions implemented, long-term projections forecasted persistence of ASFV in wild boar, and hence repeated outbreaks in domestic pigs. A key finding was that it is important to consider the timescale over which different measures are evaluated: interventions that have only limited effectiveness in the short term may yield substantial long-term benefits. Our model has several limitations, partly because it was developed in real-time. Nonetheless, it can inform understanding of the likely development of ASF epidemics and the efficacy of disease management strategies, should the virus continue its spread in Europe.

Pigkeepers’ knowledge and perceptions regarding African swine fever and the control measures in Estonia

African swine fever (ASF) has been present in Estonia since 2014, and pigkeepers play a major role in controlling the spread of viral infection in domestic pigs. Participatory epidemiology may provide insight into livestock keepers’ existing attitudes and compliance with implementing control strategies. By conducting focus group discussions and using participatory epidemiology tools, this study aimed to reveal pigkeepers’ knowledge and awareness of ASF clinical signs, transmission routes, and preventive measures. Furthermore, opinions including trust in stakeholders in ASF control, acceptability of ASF eradication, and control measures by pigkeepers in Estonia were identified. The most indicative ASF signs in pigs were “increased mortality” and “fever, inappetence, lethargy”. The highest risk of virus introduction into the herd was designated to “agricultural machinery, vehicles”, “rodents, birds, insects”, and “people”. “Fencing” was the most liked ASF preventive measure, while “training of staff in biosecurity and informing the visitors” was considered the most effective measure. The least accepted ASF eradication measure was “culling of all animals on the farm”. Generally, pigkeepers perceived that healthy animals should not be culled but only ASF-infected pigs. Additionally, healthy pigs could be slaughtered and used for the production of heat-treated canned meat. “Destroying the feed” of ASF-infected farms was not favoured because some pigkeepers proposed using it for other animal species. Regarding ASF territorial restrictions (zoning), “lower meat prices” and “economic losses” were regarded as consequences with the greatest impact. Pigkeepers ranked trust in “Veterinary Authority and Ministry of Rural Affairs” regarding their role in ASF prevention and control as high while perceiving themselves as the most trustworthy stakeholder within the ASF network. This study demonstrates a generally good level of awareness among the pigkeepers in Estonia concerning the clinical manifestation of ASF, the most relevant transmission routes of the virus for their farms, and preventive measures for ASF. Pigkeepers are aware of their own role in preventing ASF, and there is a high level of trust between them and government authorities. Additional efforts are needed from authorities to communicate better the purpose of some ASF control and eradication measures to the pigkeepers. Further incentives are required to support the implementation of costly biosecurity measures, assure compliance, and mitigate the consequences of these measures.

Understanding the transmission of African swine fever in wild boars of South Korea: A simulation study for parameter estimation.

Since the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) to Georgia in 2007, the disease has spread to many other countries including South Korea. Initial detection of ASF from wild boars (WB) in South Korea was reported in early October 2019. Since then, more than a thousand WB samples collected from the northern part of the country have been confirmed as ASF positive (2.9% of ASF positivity among WB samples collected until June 2020), indicating that the disease is endemic in the WB populations. To control the disease, multiple layers of fence-lines have been erected. Nevertheless, outbreaks continuously occurred across the fence, requiring a better understanding of the spatial transmission mechanism of ASF in WBs. Hence, we developed a novel ASF transmission model to estimate ecological and epidemiological parameters related to the spread of the disease in the WB population of South Korea. The results showed that roads and rivers were effective to prevent the spread, reducing the transmission rate to approximately 37% on average. Only a limited level of reduction was indicated via fence-lines, implying erection of fences might be considered as a temporary measure to delay the spread. This study also revealed that the probability of ASF transmission to adjacent habitats considerably decreased with increasing distance, supporting the slow spatial transmission speed reported from other European countries. Considering that elucidation of ASF dynamics in WB is crucial to mitigate the impact of the disease, we believe this study provides some useful ecological and epidemiological implications to control the disease in future.

A Review of Environmental Risk Factors for African Swine Fever in European Wild Boar.

A detailed understanding of environmental risk factors for African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar will be not only essential for risk assessments but also for timely and spatially informed allocation of resources in order to manage wild boar-targeted ASF control measures efficiently. Here, we review currently known environmental risk factors that can influence the occurrence of ASF virus infection in wild boar when compared to disease occurrence in wild boar of a non-exposed reference scenario. Accordingly, the exposure of wild boar to environmental risk factors related to (1) climate, (2) land cover, (3) human activity, (4) wild boar and (5) ASF were evaluated. As key environmental risk factors in this review, increased ASF occurrence in wild boar was associated with seasonal patterns, forest coverage, presence of water, human presence, farming activities, wild boar density and ASF nearness. The review highlights inconsistencies in some of these risk factor associations with disease detection in space and time and may provide valuable insights for the investigation of ASF transmission dynamics. The examined risk information was applied to consider potential improvements of the ASF control strategy in wild boar regarding disease surveillance, hunting, wild boar carcass searches and ASF barrier implementation.

Epidemiology of African Swine Fever and Its Risk in Nepal

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious viral infection of domestic and wild pigs with high mortality. First reported in East Africa in the early 1900s, ASF was largely controlled in domestic pigs in many countries. However, in recent years ASF outbreaks have been reported in several countries in Europe and Asia. The occurrence of ASF in China, the largest pork producer in the world, in 2018 and in India, the country that surrounds and shares open borders with Nepal, has increased the risk of ASF transmission to Nepal. Lately, the pork industry has been growing in Nepal, overcoming traditional religious and cultural biases against it. However, the emergence of viral infections such as ASF could severely affect the industry’s growth and sustainability. Because there are no effective vaccines available to prevent ASF, the government should focus on preventing entry of the virus through strict quarantine measures at the borders, controls on illegal trade, and effective management practices, including biosecurity measures.

Research priorities to fill knowledge gaps in wild boar management measures that could improve the control of African swine fever in wild boar populations

The European Commission asked EFSA to provide study designs for the investigation of four research domains (RDs) according to major gaps in knowledge identified by EFSA in a report published in 2019: (RD 1) African swine fever (ASF) epidemiology in wild boar; (RD 2) ASF transmission by vectors; (RD 3) African swine fever virus (ASFV) survival in the environment, and (RD 4) the patterns of seasonality of ASF in wild boar and domestic pigs in the EU. In this Scientific Opinion, the second RD on ASF epidemiology in wild boar is addressed. Twenty‐nine research objectives were proposed by the working group and broader ASF expert networks and 23 of these research objectives met a prespecified inclusion criterion. Fourteen of these 23 research objectives met the predefined threshold for selection and so were prioritised based on the following set of criteria: (1) the impact on ASF management; (2) the feasibility or practicality to carry out the study; (3) the potential implementation of study results in practice; (4) a possible short time‐frame study (< 1 year); (5) the novelty of the study; and (6) if it was a priority for risk managers. Finally, after further elimination of three of the proposed research objectives due to overlapping scope of studies published during the development of this opinion, 11 research priorities were elaborated into short research proposals, considering the potential impact on ASF management and the period of one year for the research activities.

Stability of African swine fever virus on spiked spray-dried porcine plasma.

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease that affects members of the Suidae family. The notifiable disease is considered a major threat to the pig industry, animal health, and food security worldwide. According to the European Food Safety Authority, ASF virus (ASFV) survival and transmission in feed and feed materials is a major research gap. Against this background, the objective of this study was to determine the survival of ASFV on spiked spray-dried porcine plasma (SDPP) when stored at two different temperatures. To this means, commercial SDPP granules were contaminated with high titers of ASFV in a worst-case external contamination scenario. Three samples per time point and temperature condition were subjected to blind passaging on macrophage cultures and subsequent haemadsorption test to determine residual infectivity. In addition, viral genome was detected by real-time PCR. The results indicate that heavily contaminated SDPP stored at 4°C remains infectious for at least 5 weeks. In contrast, spiked SDPP stored at room temperature displayed a distinct ASFV titer reduction after 1 week (>2.8 log levels) and complete inactivation after 2weeks (>5.7 log levels). In conclusion, the residual risk of ASFV transmission through externally contaminated SDPP is low if SDPP is stored at room temperature (21 ± 2°C) for a period of at least 2weeks before feeding.

Tantangan dan Kendala Pengendalian African Swine Fever

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly contagious hemorrhagic viral disease that attacks pigs and wild pigs causing economic losses for farms small and large scale. ASF outbreaks that occurred in several regions in the world have caused unrest for the livestock sector. The rapid spread of the ASF virus has resulted in very high pig mortality. ASF virus transmission can occur through direct or indirect contact. Urine and faecal excretion of pigs is an important route of ASF transmission. The ASF virus has three transmission cycles, namely the silvatic, domestic and wild boar cycles. Outbreaks that occur in several countries encourage the strategy of controlling and overcoming the disease through surveillance. ASF disease control that has been carried out includes improving farm biosecurity management systems and limiting the movement of animals and animal products before the ASF vaccine is found.

Spatiotemporal clustering and Random Forest models to identify risk factors of African swine fever outbreak in Romania in 2018\u20132019

African swine fever (ASF) has affected Romania since July 2017, with considerable economic and social consequences, despite the implementation of control measures mainly based on stamping out of infected pig populations. On the basis of the 2973 cumulative recorded cases up to September 2019 among wild boars and domestic pigs, analysis of the epidemiological characteristics could help to identify the factors favoring the persistence and spread of ASF. A statistical framework, based on a random forest methodology, was therefore developed to assess the spatiotemporal features of the epidemics and their relationships with environmental, human, and agricultural factors. The landscape of Romania was associated with the infection dynamics, particularly concerning forested and wetland areas. Waterways were also identified as a pivotal factor, raising questions about possible waterborne transmission since these waterways are often used as a water supply for backyard holdings. However, human activity was clearly identified as the main risk factor for the spread of ASF. Although the situation in Romania cannot be directly transposed to intensive pig farming countries, the findings of this study highlight the need for strict biosecurity measures on farms, and during transportation, to avoid ASF transmission at large geographic and temporal scales.

The potential anti-African swine fever virus effects of medium chain fatty acids on in vitro feed model: An evaluation study using epidemic ASFV straincirculating in Vietnam.

Background:African swine fever (ASF) is an important disease affecting swine and has a significant economic loss in both the developed and developing world.Aim:In this study, we evaluated the potential effects of medium-chain fatty acids (MCFAs) in individual and synergistic forms to prevent and/or reduce ASF virus (ASFV) infection using in vitro feed model.Methods:The cytotoxicity of MCFAs on porcine alveolar macrophages cells was evaluated by using the 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide assay. The potential effects of MCFAs, including C8 (caprylic acid), C8-C6-C10 (caprylic acid-caproic acid-capric acid; 1:1:1 ratio) and C8-C10-C12 (caprylic acid-capric acid-lauric acid; 1:1:1 ratio) against a field ASFV strain isolated in the capital Hanoi of Vietnam, were further examined by real-time PCR and haemadsorption assays in in vitro feed model.Results:Our results indicated that all tested products do not induce cytotoxicity at the dose of 100 μg/ml and are suitable for further in vitro examination. These products have shown a strong antiviral effect against ASFV infectivity at doses of 0.375% and 0.5%. Interestingly, the synergistic MCFAs have shown clearly their potential activities against ASFV in which at a lower dose of 0.25%, pre-treatment with product two and three induced significant increases at the level of Cq value when compared to positive control and/or product 1 (p < 0.05). However, the viral titre was not changed after 24 hours post-inoculation when compared to positive control. Our findings suggested that all tested products, both individual and synergistic forms of MCFAs, have possessed a strong anti-ASFV effect, and this effect is dose-dependence in in vitro feed model. Additionally, synergistic effects of MCFAs are more effective against ASFV when compared to individual forms.Conclusion:Together, the findings in this study indicate that MCFAs, both individual and synergistic forms, inhibit against a field ASFV strain in the feed model, which may support minimizing the risk of ASF transmission in the pig population. Further studies focusing on in vivo anti-ASFV effects of MCFAs are important to bring new insight into the mode of ASFV-reduced action by these compounds in swine feed.

A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam.

The main objectives of this study were to model various scenarios of African swine fever (ASF) virus transmission among farms in Vietnam and to evaluate the impact of control strategies using North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). A total of 7,882 pig farms in the Red River Delta (RRD) region were obtained from the General Statistics Office, and then, random points corresponding to the number of farms in each province were generated as exact farm locations were not available. A total of 10 models were developed, including movement control scenarios. In addition, we conducted sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of indirect contact transmission probability (TP). Overall, the indirect contact exhibited an important role in transmitting the ASF virus. In order to minimize ASF transmission between farms, we found that movement restriction needed to reach a certain level (approximately between 50% and 75%) and that the restriction had to be applied in a timely manner. This study offers valuable insight into how ASF virus can be transmitted via direct and indirect contact and controlled among farms under the various simulation scenarios. Our results suggest that the enforcement of movement restriction was an effective control measure as soon as the outbreaks were reported. In addition, this study provided evidence that high standards of biosecurity can contribute to the reduction of disease spread.

Putative Role of Arthropod Vectors in African Swine Fever Virus Transmission in Relation to Their Bio-Ecological Properties.

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important diseases in Suidae due to its significant health and socioeconomic consequences and represents a major threat to the European pig industry, especially in the absence of any available treatment or vaccine. In fact, with its high mortality rate and the subsequent trade restrictions imposed on affected countries, ASF can dramatically disrupt the pig industry in afflicted countries. In September 2018, ASF was unexpectedly identified in wild boars from southern Belgium in the province of Luxembourg, not far from the Franco-Belgian border. The French authorities rapidly commissioned an expert opinion on the risk of ASF introduction and dissemination into metropolitan France. In Europe, the main transmission routes of the virus comprise direct contact between infected and susceptible animals and indirect transmission through contaminated material or feed. However, the seasonality of the disease in some pig farms in Baltic countries, including outbreaks in farms with high biosecurity levels, have led to questions on the possible involvement of arthropods in the transmission of the virus. This review explores the current body of knowledge on the most common arthropod families present in metropolitan France. We examine their potential role in spreading ASF—by active biological or mechanical transmission or by passive transport or ingestion—in relation to their bio-ecological properties. It also highlights the existence of significant gaps in our knowledge on vector ecology in domestic and wild boar environments and in vector competence for ASFV transmission. Filling these gaps is essential to further understanding ASF transmission in order to thus implement appropriate management measures.

Risk factors for African swine fever incursion in Romanian domestic farms during 2019

African swine fever (ASF) entered Georgia in 2007 and the EU in 2014. In the EU, the virus primarily spread in wild boar (Sus scrofa) in the period from 2014–2018. However, from the summer 2018, numerous domestic pig farms in Romania were affected by ASF. In contrast to the existing knowledge on ASF transmission routes, the understanding of risk factors and the importance of different transmission routes is still limited. In the period from May to September 2019, 655 Romanian pig farms were included in a matched case-control study investigating possible risk factors for ASF incursion in commercial and backyard pig farms. The results showed that close proximity to outbreaks in domestic farms was a risk factor in commercial as well as backyard farms. Furthermore, in backyard farms, herd size, wild boar abundance around the farm, number of domestic outbreaks within 2 km around farms, short distance to wild boar cases and visits of professionals working on farms were statistically significant risk factors. Additionally, growing crops around the farm, which could potentially attract wild boar, and feeding forage from ASF affected areas to the pigs were risk factors for ASF incursion in backyard farms.

Confirmed cannibalism in wild boar and its possible role in African swine fever transmission.

For the monitoring of wild boar interactions with conspecific carcasses, seven wild boar carcasses were placed in different sites in the Czech Republic during winter season. Data were collected by camera traps. In total, 732 visits were recorded of wild boars at the carcass sites. Direct contact with the carcass was detected in 81% of the records. Cannibalism was observed in 9.8% of all recorded visits. The first direct contact was observed on average 30days after the carcass had been placed in its respective site. Cannibalism was observed on average after 70days. The effect of sex-age class on direct contact was not proven in our study. The presented findings show that cannibalism in wild boar can play a substantial role in the ASF epidemic. These results highlighted the importance of the removal of infected carcasses from the habitat, which is crucial for African swine fever eradication.

Prevalence of African Swine Fever in China, 2018-2019.

African swine fever (ASF) has spread widely across China since 2018. It represents a significant threat to the pig production industry, as no treatment or vaccine is available for this disease. In this study, the geographical distribution and epidemiological features of ASF from all endemic regions of China were analyzed. We focused on the epidemiological data from 149 ASF cases among domestic pigs and wild boars, confirmed during 2018-2019. We found that, in the 1-year period from August 2018 to July 2019, ASF was reported in most geographical regions of the country, which comprises 31 provinces. The outbreaks were mainly located along the important economic zones and tended to increase southward in general. The southwest region was the most severely affected, with 22% of cases, followed by the Northeast, with 20% of cases. There was no significant difference among other regions. Additionally, the overall mean rate of case-incidence/fatality was 12.5% and 64%, respectively, in this period and varied significantly different months, with a general trend towards a decrease over time. The highest incidence rate (30.4%) occurred in April-May 2019, and the highest fatality rate (81.21%) in October-November 2018, demonstrating the marked seasonality in ASF transmission. Furthermore, anthropogenic effects were a major significant risk factor for the spread of the disease. In summary, this initial epidemiological analysis of ASF provides a global perspective on ASF and facilitates detection of trends and patterns, which will be useful for updating preventive actions at a national level and evaluating their impact on public health.

Smallholder pig farming education improved community knowledge and pig management in Angónia district, Mozambique.

Education on pig farming has been recognized as an important method of transferring knowledge and improving production among smallholder pig producers in rural settings, but the effectiveness of this in different rural settings remains unknown. A community-based intervention trial on smallholder pig farmers was conducted with the aim of evaluating the effectiveness of pig farming education. Baseline information was collected using interview-based questionnaires and observations regarding pig welfare and husbandry practices followed by participatory pig farming education and field demonstrations. The study was carried out between May 2014 and May 2016 and involved 90 smallholder pig farmers from six villages in Angónia district, of Tete province in Mozambique. The baseline questionnaire among several aspects regarding pig management highlighted that most farmers had an overall knowledge on aspects of transmission (55.1%) and prevention (48.9%) of African swine fever (ASF), porcine cysticercosis (PC) transmission (8.2%), and field diagnosis (36.7%), and they were not aware of the zoonotic potential of PC or the basic husbandry procedures of pigs kept under permanent confinement. Forty-nine of the 90 farmers enrolled, participated in the pig farming education, which provided the basis for making a comparison between trained (54%) and non-trained (46%) pig farmers. Since knowledge for ASF transmission (P < 0.036), pig pen design (P < 0.014), reasons for confine the pigs (P < 0.016), as well as the adoption of the new introduced pig pen model (P < 0.025), and the practices of acceptable, good hygiene of the pig pen (P < 0.009 and P < 0.014, respectively), improved significantly in both groups, a remarkable spill-over was observed, proving villagers capable of transferring knowledge within the villages. However, water provision and total confinement in both groups were still not practiced by the most farmers following the pig farming education (P > 0.174 and 0.254). It is concluded that despite improved knowledge, the farmers failed to follow several recommendations, most likely due to poverty such as lack of basic resources like food and water, which even the farmers themselves lacked for their day to day living.

SimInf for spatio-temporal data-driven modeling of African swine fever in Swedish wildboar

SimInf for spatio-temporal data-driven modeling of African swine fever in Swedish wildboar

Estimating Contact Structure among Wild Pigs: Implications for African Swine Fever Transmission and Management

Estimating Contact Structure among Wild Pigs: Implications for African Swine Fever Transmission and Management

Contribution of market value chain to the control of African swine fever in Zambia.

African swine fever (ASF) is a worldwide disease of pigs endemic in most sub-Saharan African countries. Zambia has been experiencing outbreaks of ASF for many years because the disease is endemic in the eastern part of the country, with incursion into the central part of Lusaka Province. The latest outbreaks of ASF in Lusaka occurred in 2013 with substantial pig mortalities, loss in trade, and cost of control measures and compensation of affected farmers. The aims of the study were to identify market value chain-related factors that were associated with ASF outbreaks and assess why these outbreaks are becoming frequent despite control measures being put in place. Using a mixed-method design, participants involved in the value chain were purposively sampled. Some pig farmers were included using a respondent-driven technique. Farmers came from Lusaka, Chilanga, Kafue, and Chongwe districts. Other participants included district veterinary officers, veterinary assistants, police officers, and veterinary staff manning veterinary checkpoints, abattoir and processing plant managers, meat inspectors, market chairpersons, and traders. Semi-structured questionnaires, in-depth interviews, and direct observations were used to collect data to come up with narrations, tables, and flow charts. In assessing the contribution of the value chain in ASF, aspects of ASF screening, market availability and procedures, knowledge on ASF transmission, occurrence of ASF outbreak, and regulation of pig movement were investigated. Despite government ASF control measures being applied, the following were noted: (1) low awareness levels of ASF transmission among pig farmers and traders; (2) only 50% of farmers had their animals screened for ASF before sale; (3) all the markets did not have the pork inspected; (4) laxity in enforcing livestock movement control because of inadequate police and veterinary staff manning checkpoints; (5) lack of enforcement of meat inspection and food safety regulations at pig markets; and (6) inadequate and bureaucratic ASF screening. Improving biosecurity; sensitizing farmers, traders, and all stakeholders in the pig value chain on ASF prevention and control; reinforcement of staff at checkpoints; and regulation of pig markets are some of the ways in which future outbreaks can be prevented.

Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number for African Swine Fever Using the Ukrainian Historical Epidemic of 1977

In 1977, Ukraine experienced a local epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) in the Odessa region. A total of 20 settlements were affected during the course of the epidemic, including both large farms and backyard households. Thanks to timely interventions, the virus circulation was successfully eradicated within 6months, leading to no additional outbreaks. Detailed report of the outbreak's investigation has been publically available from 2014. The report contains some quantitative data that allow studying the ASF-spread dynamics in the course of the epidemic. In our study, we used this historical epidemic to estimate the basic reproductive number of the ASF virus both within and between farms. The basic reproductive number (R0 ) represents the average number of secondary infections caused by one infectious unit during its infectious period in a susceptible population. Calculations were made under assumption of an exponential initial growth by fitting the approximating curve to the initial segments of the epidemic curves. The R0 both within farm and between farms was estimated at 7.46 (95% confidence interval: 5.68-9.21) and 1.65 (1.42-1.88), respectively. Corresponding daily transmission rates were estimated at 1.07 (0.81-1.32) and 0.09 (0.07-0.10). These estimations based on historical data are consistent with those using data generated by the recent epidemic currently affecting eastern Europe. Such results contribute to the published knowledge on the ASF transmission dynamics under natural conditions and could be used to model and predict the spread of ASF in affected and non-affected regions and to evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures.