African Lion Populations Research Articles

Wild lions in small, fenced reserves in South Africa conform to a meta‐population

Abstract Lions (Panthera leo) are declining across their range, mainly due to human‐induced habitat fragmentation and prey depletion. However, the South African lion population continues to grow. Unlike other range states, South Africa actively manages wild lions across a continuum of landscapes and ecological constraints. Many of these lions are in small, fenced reserves where managers seek to mimic ecological processes in small landscapes. However, the effectiveness of this management approach has not been evaluated against meta‐population criteria. Given that meta‐population dynamics allows species living in fragmented habitats to persist, we evaluated how South Africa's lion population complies with meta‐population criteria using national audit data between 2010 and 2019 from 49 fenced, wild lion reserves. The small, fenced reserves holding wild lions fulfil the criteria for meta‐population functionality. However, this functionality was achieved through haphazard and uncoordinated management actions and not through a coordinated approach. Our main recommendation is to consider implementing a more coordinated meta‐population management approach. At the very least, meta‐population management guidelines should be reviewed and updated on a regular basis, regular audits should be conducted and periodic genetic evaluation of the meta‐population (every 10 years) should be instituted. We recommend incentivising lion managers to enhance the conservation of lions in South Africa within a meta‐population framework. We also recommend a focus on improving decision making and policy procedures that facilitates compliance with relevant legislation aimed at achieving high levels of lion conservation‐governance efficiency. South Africa's meta‐population approach to wild lion management in small, fenced reserves is effective at conserving lions and contributing to lion conservation more broadly. In an increasingly fragmented landscape, the need for human management actions to ensure persistence of large carnivores is likely to increase. A managed meta‐population approach of fenced (or unfenced, but geographically isolated) populations is a useful tool for conservationists to consider worldwide.

The Addis Ababa Lions: Whole-Genome Sequencing of a Rare and Precious Population.

Lions are widely known as charismatic predators that once roamed across the globe, but their populations have been greatly affected by environmental factors and human activities over the last 150 yr. Of particular interest is the Addis Ababa lion population, which has been maintained in captivity at around 20 individuals for over 75 yr, while many wild African lion populations have become extinct. In order to understand the molecular features of this unique population, we conducted a whole-genome sequencing study on 15 Addis Ababa lions and detected 4.5 million distinct genomic variants compared with the reference African lion genome. Using functional annotation, we identified several genes with mutations that potentially impact various traits such as mane color, body size, reproduction, gastrointestinal functions, cardiovascular processes, and sensory perception. These findings offer valuable insights into the genetics of this threatened lion population.

Socio-political and ecological fragility of threatened, free-ranging African lion populations

Lions are one of the world’s most iconic species but are threatened with extinction. Developing effective range-wide conservation plans are crucial but hampered by the relative lack of knowledge on specific threats facing each population and the socio-political context for conservation. Here, we present a range-wide examination of the relative fragility of lion populations, examining socio-political factors alongside ecological ones. We found Ethiopia’s Maze National Park had the most ecologically fragile geographic population while Kavango-Zambezi was the least. At a country level, lion populations had highest ecological fragility in Cameroon and Malawi. When we examined socio-political fragility, Somalia was the most fragile lion range country, followed by South Sudan. When socio-political and ecological fragility were combined, lion populations in Maze National Park and Bush-Bush (Somalia) and more broadly, Somalian and Malawian lion populations were the most fragile. These insights should help inform more nuanced and appropriately targeted lion conservation plans.

Predicting the consequences of subsistence poaching on the population persistence of a non-target species of conservation concern

Illegal animal hunting, a contributor to biodiversity loss, occurs along a relative selectivity spectrum from indiscriminate to highly selective. Extensive research has evaluated the impacts of selective hunting on animal populations. In contrast, the ways in which indiscriminate hunting pressure can shape populations of non-target species has not yet received comparable attention. We used empirical field data collection and simulation modelling to predict the persistence of an African lion population (Panthera leo) subject to indiscriminate hunting pressure from non-target subsistence poaching via wire snares in Murchison Falls National Park, Uganda. Our simulation modelling predicted lion population extirpation following a 50 % rise of lethal poaching pressure above the observed levels. When lethal poaching pressure doubled, the lion population was extirpated in ~70 % of our simulations. We then simulated reductions in lethal poaching pressure to quantify the predicted population recovery of lions. We found that the lion population increased by 40 % with reductions in lethal poaching pressure of 50 %. When we removed lethal poaching pressure entirely, the lion population nearly doubled in just 18 years. Our results demonstrate that by reducing the density of wire snares in the study area by just 2.79/km2, the lion population transitioned from being locally extirpated in 67 % of the simulations to reaching carrying capacity inside of two lion generations. We explore how vulnerable even non-target animals are to subsistence poaching and describe the types of applied practices that can be implemented to reduce wire snaring and effectively promote the population recovery of species of conservation concern.

Anthropogenic edge effects and aging errors by hunters can affect the sustainability of lion trophy hunting

Many large predator populations are in decline globally with significant implications for ecosystem integrity and function. Understanding the drivers of their decline is required to adequately mitigate threats. Trophy hunting is often cited as a tool to conserve large mammal populations but may also have negative impacts if not well managed. Here we use a spatially implicit, individual based model to investigate the threats posed to African lion populations by poorly managed trophy hunting and additive anthropogenic mortality such as poaching and retaliatory killing. We confirm the results of previous studies that show that lion trophy hunting can be sustainable if only older male lions are hunted, but demonstrate that hunting becomes unsustainable when populations are exposed to additional anthropogenic mortality, as is the case for most free ranging populations. We show that edge effects can be a critical determinant of population viability and populations that encompass well protected source areas are more robust than those without. Finally, errors in aging of hunted lions by professional trophy hunters may undermine the sustainability of the age-based quota setting strategies that are now widely used to manage lion trophy hunting. The effect of aging errors was most detrimental to population persistence in the ≥ 6 and ≥ 7 year-old age thresholds that are frequently used to define suitably aged lions for hunting. Resource managers should limit offtakes to older demographics and additionally take a precautionary approach when setting hunting quotas for large carnivore populations that are affected by other sources of anthropogenic mortality, such as bush-meat poaching, retaliatory killing and problem animal control.

Where have all the lions gone? Establishing realistic baselines to assess decline and recovery of African lions

AbstractAimPredict empirically the current and recent historical (c1970) landscape connectivity and population size of the African lion as a baseline against which to assess conservation of the species.LocationContinental Africa.MethodsWe compiled historical records of lion distribution to generate a recent historical range for the species. Historical population size was predicted using a generalized additive model. Resistant kernel and factorial least‐cost path analyses were used to predict recent historical landscape connectivity and compare this with contemporary connectivity at continental, regional and country scales.ResultsWe estimate a baseline population of ~92,054 (83,017–101,094 95% CI) lions in c1970, suggesting Africa's lion population has declined by ~75%, over the last five decades. Although greatly reduced from historical extents (c1500AD), recent historical lion habitat was substantially connected. However, in comparison, contemporary population connectivity has declined dramatically, with many populations now isolated, as well as large declines within remaining population core areas. This decline was most marked in the West and Central region, with a 90% decline in connected habitat compared with its c1970 extent. The Eastern and Southern regions have experienced lower, though significant, declines in connected habitat (44% and 55%, respectively). Contemporary populations are connected by three non‐core habitat linkages and 15 potential corridors (spanning unconnected habitat) that may allow dispersal and gene flow. Declining connectivity mirrors recent studies showing loss of genetic diversity and increasing genetic isolation of lion populations.Main conclusionsWe provide an empirically derived baseline for African lion population size, habitat extent and connectivity in c1970 and at present against which to evaluate contemporary conservation of the species, avoiding a shifting baseline syndrome where conservation success/failure is measured only against recent population size or range. We recommend priorities for conservation of existing connections to avoid further fragmentation.

African Large Carnivore Population Changes in Response to a Drought

African lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta) play key roles in savanna ecosystems. Habitat change, overharvesting and retaliatory killing may threaten the persistence of some populations. Climate may cause further disturbance that accentuate negative effects. Droughts weaken the ability of prey to avoid predators resulting in larger carnivore populations. We thus expected populations of African lions and spotted hyaenas to increase during a drought in Kruger National Park (Kruger). Prey that is easier to hunt during droughts may also influence age and sex structures through impacts on survival and fecundity schedules. We tested these predictions by collating information from previous studies and conducting a field call-up survey in Kruger. A severe drought in Kruger during the summer of 2015/2016 allowed pre- and post-drought comparisons. Before the drought, lion and spotted hyaena numbers increased in response to increasing prey biomass. During the drought, lions maintained their numbers, while spotted hyaena numbers increased further. There were substantially more subadult male lions after than before the drought. The abundant subadult males may induce higher incidences of human–carnivore conflict through more dispersing males in future. Our analyses highlighted immediate and lag effects of carnivores in response to droughts.

Lion (Panthera leo) diet and cattle depredation on the Kuku Group Ranch Pastoralist area in southern Maasailand, Kenya

Context African lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining throughout Africa, but the problem is particularly acute in southern Kenya, where human–lion conflict is common. Aims Using the Kuku Group Ranch (KGR) in southern Kenya as a case study, we investigated lion diet and the potential drivers of temporal variation in cattle depredation. Methods Using GPS clusters, we investigated the main prey species consumed by lions to determine lion diet. Prey preference of lions in relation to prey availability was then assessed using a Jacobs index to determine whether cattle or wild prey were preferred. We used reported depredation events recorded by verification officers over 36 months (2016–2018) to investigate whether temporal variation in cattle depredation by lions was linked to variation in lag rainfall, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) or availability of the most important large non-domestic prey items. Key results Six prey species (cattle, Bos taurus; Burchell’s zebra, Equus quagga; Coke’s hartebeest, Alcelaphus cokeii; Maasai giraffe, Giraffa tippelskirchi; blue wildebeest, Connochaetes taurinus; and eland, Tragelaphus oryx) made up 92% of the biomass consumed by lions on KGR. Cattle are the most consumed prey item and contribute the second most to consumed biomass after giraffe. However, once prey availability is considered, lions preferred wild prey. Verification officers identified 330 cattle depredation events over 3 years, and we show that the most important predictor of monthly cattle depredation by lions was cumulative rainfall in the preceding 3 months. Conclusions Our results on cattle depredation by lions showed that rainfall and its influence on the environment are important drivers of cattle depredation. Understanding the mechanistic link between lion depredation and rainfall enables us to predict when depredation events may increase and allows hypotheses on the reason why this spike in depredation takes place to be explored. Implications Given that climate-change models indicate that East Africa will experience prolonged and increased seasonal rainfall, we predict that periods when cattle are vulnerable to lion depredation may increase. Therefore, it is imperative to ensure that cattle husbandry is improved during these wetter periods to minimise the risk of conflict and retaliatory killing of lions.

Estimates of Density and Population Size of African Lions in the Katavi National Park, Tanzania

Lion populations are declining globally, including in Tanzania, and Africa. However, Katavi National Park is a landscape with potential for a sustainable and healthy population of African lions (Panthera leo), but there is currently limited reliable data indicating density and population size. This hinders the development of conservation action plans, including population monitoring, for this species. To address this data gap, we assessed lions’ demography and population estimates (population size and density) in the Katavi National Park using a call-back survey method. In addition, we assessed ecological factors that influenced distribution of lions to the call-back stations. Our estimated population size revealed 84 lions (95% CI 53 - 116), with a density of 5/100 km2 (95% CI 3.14 - 6.86) in the sampled area, representing 38% of the total park. This resulted in an estimated 214 individuals when extrapolated to the whole park. Sixty-seven percent of lions that responded to the stations were female, and ecological factors that significantly influenced their distribution included elevation, land cover, precipitation, temperature, wind speed, and prey abundance. Our results suggest that female lions are more abundant than males in Katavi National Park and that population size and density estimates, as well as understanding prey-lion relations, are important indices for lion monitoring and identifying conservation priorities. Further, our study suggests that the call-back survey method is an effective, rapid, and less costly population assessment method for lions, may be useful for assessing other social species in the Katavi ecosystem and can be a useful tool for community engagement and contributing to scientific monitoring.

Lion (Panthera leo) ecology and survival in protected areas of Ethiopia

Ethiopia is renowned for its cultural and biological diversity and covers an important share of lion habitat in Africa, providing connectivity between East and Central Africa. The aim of this study was to investigate the status of lions and human–lion conflict in several protected areas of Ethiopia and to present an overview on lion distribution nationally. We used call-ups and semi-structured interviews with 809 randomly selected pastoralists to investigate human–lion conflict and pastoralist perceptions towards lions in five priority sites and collected further anecdotal information for all other known or possible lion range. We had chance encounters with six lions, but we observed no lion responses to the call-ups. We recorded 145 spotted hyaena and 23 jackal responses at, respectively, 25 and 13 of the 46 call-up stations. Overall, respondents viewed lions as dangerous carnivores, but nonetheless responded that lions should be present regionally, preferably in restricted areas. Most respondents disagreed that the killing of lions should be allowed, but we note that a small minority strongly agreed to killing. A large majority of respondents agreed that more people need to be given information about lions. Respondents mentioned spotted hyaena and leopard as the main predators on all livestock followed by jackal (shoats) and lion (mainly cattle). The impact of depredation on livestock mortality was nearly twice that of disease. Our results strongly suggest that lion densities are low and may have substantially decreased in Awash, Nechisar, Chebera-Churchura, and Mago National Parks and in Kaffa Biosphere Reserve due to conflict, habitat loss and especially ineffective protection. Anecdotal information suggests that lions are widespread but rare and that there is no stronghold in Ethiopia. Considering the unique evolutionary background of Ethiopia as the bridge between Central and East African lion populations, and the significant role of the lion in Ethiopian history and culture, we argue that more emphasis should be given to the protection of prioritized lion populations.

A pan-African spatial assessment of human conflicts with lions and elephants

African lions (Panthera leo) and African savanna (Loxodonta africana) and forest (L. cyclotis) elephants pose threats to people, crops, and livestock, and are themselves threatened with extinction. Here, we map these human-wildlife conflicts across Africa. Eighty-two percent of sites containing lions and elephants are adjacent to areas with considerable human pressure. Areas at severe risk of conflict (defined as high densities of humans, crops, and cattle) comprise 9% of the perimeter of these species’ ranges and are found in 18 countries hosting, respectively, ~ 74% and 41% of African lion and elephant populations. Although a variety of alternative conflict-mitigation strategies could be deployed, we focus on assessing the potential of high-quality mitigation fences. Our spatial and economic assessments suggest that investments in the construction and maintenance of strategically located mitigation fences would be a cost-effective strategy to support local communities, protect people from dangerous wildlife, and prevent further declines in lion and elephant populations.

Harnessing genomics to trace the path of a viral outbreak in African lions.

Predicting the emergence of novel infectious diseases requires an understanding of how pathogens infect and efficiently spread in alternative naïve hosts. A pathogen's ability to adapt to a new host (i.e. host shift) oftentimes is constrained by host phylogeny, due to limits in the molecular mechanisms available to overcome host-specific immune defences (Longdon etal.,2014). Some pathogens, such as RNA viruses, however, have a propensity to jump hosts due to rapid mutation rates. For example, canine distemper virus (CDV) infects a broad range of terrestrial carnivores, as well as noncarnivore species worldwide, with a host range that is distributed across 5 orders and 22 families (Beineke etal.,2015). In 1993-1994, a severe CDV outbreak infected multiple carnivore host species in Serengeti National Park, causing widespread mortality and the subsequent decline of the African lion (Panthera leo) population (Roelke-Parker etal.,1996). While previous studies established domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) as the disease reservoir, the precise route of transmission to lions remained a mystery, and a number of wild carnivore species could have facilitated viral evolution and spread. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Weckworth etal.(2020) used whole-genome viral sequences obtained from four carnivore species during the CDV outbreak, in combination with epidemiological data, to illuminate the pathway and evolutionary mechanisms leading to disease emergence in Serengeti lions.

Demographic consequences of habitat loss and crowding in large carnivores: A natural experiment

AbstractHabitat loss is one of largest threats to the persistence of large carnivore populations. However, because most large carnivores are long‐lived, cryptic and wide‐ranging, few studies examine the demographic consequences of habitat loss, and the resultant crowding that ensues, on these species. We used long‐term data to examine the demographic responses of an African lion (Panthera leo) population to flooding‐induced habitat loss in a seasonal wetland, the Okavango Delta, during a transition from low to high annual flooding patterns. We found that intraspecific competition reduced cub survival and that this effect was exacerbated by habitat loss and consequent crowding. The proportion of cubs recorded in the population also declined as crowding increased, and both the survival of cubs and proportion of cubs recorded declined as prey abundance decreased. Apparent sub‐adult survival declined with increasing pride size, but this likely reflects emigration rather than mortality. Adult survival remained relatively constant throughout the study period, a population response which is important in buffering populations against short‐term fluctuations in ecological conditions. As many large carnivore populations face future habitat loss, it is important that we understand the demographic consequences of habitat loss in order to better mitigate its effects in the future.

The importance of reliable monitoring methods for the management of small, isolated populations

AbstractTo effectively manage wildlife populations, it is essential to reliably estimate their abundance. This is particularly the case for small, isolated populations, which are vulnerable to extirpation. Lake Nakuru National Park in Kenya is one such small, isolated area where an introduced population of African lions (Panthera leo) is vulnerable to genetic degradation and catastrophic events. A founder population of six individuals was introduced between 1984 and 1992, with no further recorded immigration. We used Bayesian spatially‐explicit capture–recapture models to estimate lion density and abundance based on unstructured spatial sampling. For individuals over the age of 1 year, posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 6.75 (mode = 5.93, posterior SD = 0.92) individuals/100 km2, with a mean abundance of 11.37 (mode = 10, posterior SD = 1.54), and a sex ratio of 1.38♀:1♂. Previous reports provided abundance figures much higher than ours. However, our estimates are the result of the first scientifically robust survey and we discuss why they should be viewed as a baseline rather than being suggestive of population decline, and how the discrepancy highlights the need for regular systematic surveys using a standardized framework. Given the small population size and prolonged genetic isolation, we provide long‐term management recommendations to secure this lion population.

Cross-species transmission and evolutionary dynamics of canine distemper virus during a spillover in African lions of Serengeti National Park.

The outcome of pathogen spillover from a reservoir to a novel host population can range from a "dead-end" when there is no onward transmission in the recipient population, to epidemic spread and even establishment in new hosts. Understanding the evolutionary epidemiology of spillover events leading to discrete outcomes in novel hosts is key to predicting risk and can lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms of emergence. Here we use a Bayesian phylodynamic approach to examine cross-species transmission and evolutionary dynamics during a canine distemper virus (CDV) spillover event causing clinical disease and population decline in an African lion population (Panthera leo) in the Serengeti Ecological Region between 1993 and 1994. Using 21 near-complete viral genomes from four species we found that this large-scale outbreak was likely ignited by a single cross-species spillover event from a canid reservoir to noncanid hosts <1year before disease detection and explosive spread of CDV in lions. Cross-species transmission from other noncanid species probably fuelled the high prevalence of CDV across spatially structured lion prides. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) could have acted as the proximate source of CDV exposure in lions. We report 13 nucleotide substitutions segregating CDV strains found in canids and noncanids. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that virus evolution played a role in CDV emergence in noncanid hosts following spillover during the outbreak, suggest that host barriers to clinical infection can limit outcomes of CDV spillover in novel host species.

Assessing the performance of index calibration survey methods to monitor populations of wide-ranging low-density carnivores.

Apex carnivores are wide‐ranging, low‐density, hard to detect, and declining throughout most of their range, making population monitoring both critical and challenging. Rapid and inexpensive index calibration survey (ICS) methods have been developed to monitor large African carnivores. ICS methods assume constant detection probability and a predictable relationship between the index and the actual population of interest. The precision and utility of the resulting estimates from ICS methods have been questioned. We assessed the performance of one ICS method for large carnivores—track counts—with data from two long‐term studies of African lion populations. We conducted Monte Carlo simulation of intersections between transects (road segments) and lion movement paths (from GPS collar data) at varying survey intensities. Then, using the track count method we estimated population size and its confidence limits. We found that estimates either overstate precision or are too imprecise to be meaningful. Overstated precision stemmed from discarding the variance from population estimates when developing the method and from treating the conversion from tracks counts to population density as a back‐transformation, rather than applying the equation for the variance of a linear function. To effectively assess the status of species, the IUCN has set guidelines, and these should be integrated in survey designs. We propose reporting the half relative confidence interval width (HRCIW) as an easily calculable and interpretable measure of precision. We show that track counts do not adhere to IUCN criteria, and we argue that ICS methods for wide‐ranging low‐density species are unlikely to meet those criteria. Established, intensive methods lead to precise estimates, but some new approaches, like short, intensive, (spatial) capture–mark–recapture (CMR/SECR) studies, aided by camera trapping and/or genetic identification of individuals, hold promise. A handbook of best practices in monitoring populations of apex carnivores is strongly recommended.

Corridors of tolerance through human-dominated landscapes facilitate dispersal and connectivity between populations of African lionsPanthera leo

AbstractGlobally, little is known about the dispersal abilities of carnivores, their survival in non-protected areas, and the connectivity between protected and non-protected populations. More than a decade of sighting data for 496 known African lionsPanthera leo, with 189 individuals engaging in dispersing activities plus an exchange of cross-site information, has provided unique insight into connectivity and survival in unprotected and protected areas in Kenya. In particular, three individuals, across two generations residing solely in unprotected landscapes, demonstrated connectivity between three protected areas that, to our knowledge, have not previously been recognized as harbouring connected populations. These observations suggest that unprotected areas and the human communities that reside in them may successfully create corridors of tolerance that facilitate connectivity and the long-term persistence of lion populations, both within and outside protected areas.

Genetic rescue of an isolated African lion population

Fragmented wildlife populations are challenged by limited gene flow that can lead to significant inbreeding. The lion (Panthera leo) population in South Africa’s Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP) started from a small founder population of one adult male (1958), one adult female, followed by two lionesses and three cubs (two females and one male; 1965; unrelated to the male). A genetic rescue effort was launched after signs of inbreeding were observed in the 1990s. Sixteen lions (13 females and three males) were translocated into the HiP population from Pilanesberg National Park and Madikwe Game Reserve. We assessed the genetic consequences 10 to 15 years post translocation (n = 91), using microsatellite markers. Structure analysis revealed integration of the translocated animals and evidence of a unique post-translocation genetic cluster. Allelic richness increased from 2.26 to 3.88, and heterozygosity from 0.40 to 0.65. However, overall relatedness within (0.19) and among (0.15) existing prides remained higher than in an open system, and both allelic richness and heterozygosity were declining in later post-translocation generations. Thus, although genetic rescue is a valuable tool for the recovery of inbred, isolated populations, genetic augmentation should be performed at regular intervals to ensure continued population viability.

Applying the resource dispersion hypothesis to a fission-fusion society: A case study of the African lion (Panthera leo).

The relationship between the spatiotemporal distribution of resources and patterns of sociality is widely discussed. While the resource dispersion hypothesis (RDH) was formulated to explain why animals sometimes live in groups from which they derive no obvious benefits, it has also been successfully applied to species that benefit from group living. Some empirical tests have supported the RDH, but others have not, so conclusions remain equivocal and further research is required to determine the extent to which RDH predictions hold in natural systems. Here, we test four predictions of the RDH in an African lion population in the context of their fission–fusion society. We analyzed data on group composition of GPS‐collared lions and patterns of prey availability. Our results supported the first and second predictions of the RDH: Home range size (a) was independent of group size and (b) increased with distance between encounters with prey herds. Nonetheless, the third and fourth RDH predictions were not supported: (c) The measure of resource heterogeneity and (d) resource patch richness measured through prey herd size and body size had no significant effect on lion group size. However, regarding the fourth prediction, we added an adaptation to account for dynamics of fission–fusion society and found that the frequency of pride fission increased as group size increased. Our data set restricted us from going on to explore the effect of fission–fusion dynamics on the relationship between group size and patch richness. However, this should be investigated in future studies as including fission–fusion dynamics provides a more nuanced, realistic appreciation of lion society. Our study emphasizes the importance of understanding the complexity of a species' behavioral ecology within the framework of resource dispersion. Whatever larger theoretical framework may emerge to explain lion society, incorporating fission–fusion dynamics should allow the RDH to be refined and improved.

A century of decline: Loss of genetic diversity in a southern African lion‐conservation stronghold

AbstractAimThere is a dearth of evidence that determines the genetic diversity of populations contained within present‐day protected areas compared with their historical state prior to large‐scale species declines, making inferences about a species’ conservation genetic status difficult to assess. The aim of this paper was to demonstrate the use of historical specimens to assess the change in genetic diversity over a defined spatial area.LocationLike many other species, African lion populations (Panthera leo) are undergoing dramatic contractions in range and declines in numbers, motivating the identification of a number of lion‐conservation strongholds across East and southern Africa. We focus on one such stronghold, the Kavango–Zambezi transfrontier conservation area (KAZA) of Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe.MethodsWe compare genetic diversity between historical museum specimens, collected during the late 19th and early 20th century, with samples from the modern extant population. We use 16 microsatellite markers and sequence 337 base pairs of the hypervariable control region (HVR1) of the mitochondrial genome. We use bootstrap resampling to allow for comparisons between the historical and modern data.ResultsWe show that the genetic diversity of the modern population was reduced by 12%–17%, with a reduction in allelic diversity of approximately 15%, compared to historical populations, in addition to having lost a number of mitochondrial haplotypes. We also identify a number of “ghost alleles” in the historical samples which are no longer present in the extant population.Main ConclusionsWe argue a rapid decline in allelic richness after 1895 suggests the erosion of genetic diversity coincides with the rise of a European colonial presence and the outbreak of rinderpest in the region. Our results support the need to improved connectivity between protected areas in order to prevent further loss of genetic diversity in the region.