Estimates of Density and Population Size of African Lions in the Katavi National Park, Tanzania

Abstract

Lion populations are declining globally, including in Tanzania, and Africa. However, Katavi National Park is a landscape with potential for a sustainable and healthy population of African lions (Panthera leo), but there is currently limited reliable data indicating density and population size. This hinders the development of conservation action plans, including population monitoring, for this species. To address this data gap, we assessed lions’ demography and population estimates (population size and density) in the Katavi National Park using a call-back survey method. In addition, we assessed ecological factors that influenced distribution of lions to the call-back stations. Our estimated population size revealed 84 lions (95% CI 53 - 116), with a density of 5/100 km2 (95% CI 3.14 - 6.86) in the sampled area, representing 38% of the total park. This resulted in an estimated 214 individuals when extrapolated to the whole park. Sixty-seven percent of lions that responded to the stations were female, and ecological factors that significantly influenced their distribution included elevation, land cover, precipitation, temperature, wind speed, and prey abundance. Our results suggest that female lions are more abundant than males in Katavi National Park and that population size and density estimates, as well as understanding prey-lion relations, are important indices for lion monitoring and identifying conservation priorities. Further, our study suggests that the call-back survey method is an effective, rapid, and less costly population assessment method for lions, may be useful for assessing other social species in the Katavi ecosystem and can be a useful tool for community engagement and contributing to scientific monitoring.