Within the last 10 years, prostate cancer has become the most common malignancy among men in England and Wales. The age-standardised incidence rate exceeded that for colorectal cancer by 1993, and overtook the (declining) rate for lung cancer in 1999 (Quinn et al, 2001). By the early 2000s, approximately 29 000 men were diagnosed each year with prostate cancer, accounting for one in four of all new cancers in men (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer). Prostate cancer is rare under the age of 50 years, but incidence rises steeply with age, reaching nearly 1000 cases per 100 000 per year (1% annual risk) in men aged 85 years and more. Each year, there are some 9000 deaths from prostate cancer, approximately one in eight of all cancer deaths in men (Office for National Statistics, 2003). The causes of prostate cancer are not well known. Family history in first-degree relatives is a risk factor, and incidence is 60% higher in African Americans and 38% lower in Asian Americans than in US Whites (Platz and Giovannucci, 2006), but possible risk factors related to nutrition, environment, lifestyle, sexual history, occupation and ethnicity have not been conclusively identified. The natural history of prostate cancer is poorly understood, ranging from clinically indolent cancers to highly aggressive and often fatal disease (Breslow et al, 1977). Treatment in the 1990s included various combinations of surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy and endocrine therapy, but early disease was sometimes managed by ‘watchful waiting', and other modalities, such as cryotherapy, ultrasound and laser treatment have also been used for local disease control (Kirby, 1996a, 1996b). Age-standardised incidence of prostate cancer rose slowly from 1971 up to the late 1980s, but tripled during the 1990s to more than 90 cases per 100 000 per year. This rapid increase is largely attributable to the increasingly widespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, which has led to an increase in the recorded incidence of localised prostate cancer (Evans and Moller, 2003; Pashayan et al, 2006a, 2006b). Prostate cancer is now more common among the affluent. In the early 1980s, incidence was 35–40 cases per 100 000 per year in all deprivation groups. In the decade up to the mid-1990s, however, incidence increased more than two-fold among the most affluent men, more rapidly than among the most deprived men, and is now about 40% higher in the most affluent groups (Quinn et al, 2001). Age-standardised mortality rates remained stable from 1950 to the 1980s before rising gradually, reaching a peak of 31 cases per 100 000 per year in 1993, then declining slightly thereafter. We analysed the data for over 201 000 men diagnosed with a first, primary, malignant neoplasm of the prostate in England and Wales during the 14-year period 1986–1999 and who were followed up to the end of 2001, some 86% of the 233 000 men potentially eligible for inclusion. Approximately 9% (19 800 men) had a recorded survival of zero, most of them who were registered solely from a death certificate, but for a further 1.4% (3300) the vital status was unknown on 5 November 2002, when the data were extracted for analysis, and 3.2% (7500) of men were excluded because the prostate cancer was not their first primary cancer. The vast majority of prostate cancers are adenocarcinoma (Ross and Schottenfeld, 1996). The proportion so described in England and Wales rose from just under 60% of all cases in the early 1990s to approximately 85% by the early 2000s, in parallel with a decline in the proportion coded as epithelial malignancy without further specification, from 28 to approximately 10% (data not shown). This pattern suggests steady improvement in the recording of pathological data, rather than a shift in the type of malignancy.