PurposeRecent studies have documented the significant influence of investment bank relationships on the forecast accuracy of affiliated analysts. However, the literature primarily focuses on investment bank-firm relationships, such as whether the investment bank has underwriter or lending relationships with firms. Little attention has been paid to the impact of investment bank-state relationships. To fill this gap in the literature, this paper investigates whether investment bank-state relationships create an information advantage for affiliated analysts.Design/methodology/approachWe empirically test the information advantage of state-affiliated analysts using a large sample of analyst forecasts from China spanning the period 2008 to 2020. Specifically, we investigate whether state-affiliated analysts issue more accurate and timely forecasts around macro events. To address endogeneity concerns, we examine instances where analysts move between state-affiliated and non-affiliated banks, as well as changes in the controlling structure of investment banks.FindingsWe find that state-affiliated analysts demonstrate greater accuracy in forecasts driven by macro events, indicating their information advantage. This effect is more pronounced under conditions of heightened economic policy uncertainty and closer ties between investment banks and the state. After transitioning to a non-state-affiliated investment bank, analysts no longer maintain the ability to make superior macro-event-driven forecasts. Conversely, when the investment bank's affiliation changes from non-state to state, financial analysts gain an information advantage following the establishment of new state affiliation. Additionally, state-affiliated analysts tend to issue more assertive forecasts in response to macro events, which are subsequently echoed by their peers. Furthermore, this information advantage is recognized by investors, enhancing stock price informativeness.Originality/valueFirstly, we contribute to the literature on the economic implications of state ownership in financial intermediaries. Secondly, we enrich the existing literature on financial analysts by acknowledging the pivotal role of investment bank relationships in shaping analysts' behaviors. Lastly, unlike existing literature that treats forecasts driven by macroeconomic events and those influenced by firm-specific events as a homogeneous category, this study contributes to the literature by innovatively categorizing analyst forecasts into two distinct types.
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