Affective Forecasting Research Articles

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in reproducing observed rainfall over Ethiopia

Abstract Ethiopia is highly susceptible to the effects of climate change and variability. This study evaluated the performances of 37 CMIP6 models against a gridded rainfall product of Ethiopia known as Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) in simulating the observed rainfall from 1981 to 2014. Taylor Skill Score was used for ranking the performance of individual models for mean monthly, June–September, and February–May seasonal rainfall. Comprehensive rating metrics (RM) were used to derive the overall ranks of the models. Results show that the performances of the models were not consistent in reproducing rainfall distributions at different statistical metrics and timeframes. More than 20 models simulated the largest dry bias on high topographic and rainfall-receiving areas of the country during the June–September season. The RM-based overall ranks of CMIP6 models showed that GFDL-CM4 is the best-performing model followed by GFDL-ESM4, NorESM2-MM, and CESM2 in simulating rainfall over Ethiopia. The ensemble of these four Global Climate Models showed the best performance in representing the spatiotemporal patterns of the observed rainfall relative to the ensembles of all models. Generally, this study highlighted the existence of dry bias in climate model projections for Ethiopia, which requires bias adjustment of the models, for impact assessment.

Personal and collective mental time travel across the adult lifespan during COVID-19.

Older adults exhibit an age-related positivity effect, with more positivity for memories than young adults. Theoretical explanations attribute this phenomenon to greater emphasis on emotion regulation and well-being due to shortened time horizons. Adults, across the lifespan, also exhibit a collective negativity bias (more negativity about their country than their personal past and future) and a future-oriented positivity bias (more positivity for future projections than for memories). Threats to global health (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic) may shorten future time horizons which may serve to impact emotional valence for memories and future projections. We investigated this possibility in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic in young, middle-aged, and older adults (N = 434; age: 18-81 years), for positive and negative events in the past (2019) and future (2021) in the personal and collective domains, as well as for future excitement and worry in these same domains in 1 week, 1 year, and 5-10 years' time. We replicated the collective negativity bias and future-oriented positivity bias, indicating the robustness of these phenomena. However, the pattern of age-related positivity diverged for personal events such that young adults exhibited similar positivity to older adults and more positivity than middle-aged adults. Finally, consistent with theoretical proposals of better emotion regulation with age, older adults reported more muted excitement and worry for the long-term future compared to young adults. We discuss the implications of this work for understanding valence-based biases in memory and future projections across the adult lifespan. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Further Evidences of the role of Personality on Affective Forecasting

Further Evidences of the role of Personality on Affective Forecasting

Quality of Life in Married Women: Religiosity and Psychological Immune System as Predictors

Women are known to be particularly susceptible to mental health issues, which can have a detrimental impact on various aspects of their lives, including physical, psychological, and social well-being. To enhance their quality of life, it is crucial to identify protective factors such as religiosity and psychological immune. Therefore, this research explored the relationship between religiosity, psychological immune system, and married women’s quality of life. The research employed a quantitative correlational approach, with data collected from 207 married women aged 22-63 years who identified as Muslims using the convenience sampling method. Based on SEM Partial Least Square analysis, it was concluded that religiosity indirectly affects quality of life through psychological immune system with a t value of 4.722 (p = .000) and a total effect t value of 2.803 (p = .003). Increasing religiosity is important in improving psychological immune system to improve quality of life.

Does subjective socioeconomic status moderate the effect of basic psychological need satisfaction on undergraduates' affective forecasting?

Affective forecasts are people's predictions of their future feelings in response to future events. In this study, based on the self-determination theory (SDT), we examined whether satisfying basic psychological needs influence undergraduates' affective forecasting and the moderating role of subjective socioeconomic status (SES). With a total of 423 undergraduate participants (177 males, 246 females), through one pilot study and three experiments, we first manipulated participants' basic psychological need satisfaction, i.e., autonomy need satisfaction (study 1), competence need satisfaction (study 2), and relatedness need satisfaction (study 3), then we asked low-SES and high-SES participants, respectively, to predict the pleasantness of a particular new product and evaluated the actual experience with the product. Results showed that the effect of basic psychological need on affective forecasting was not significant. When the need for autonomy need and competence need was satisfied, the impact bias was greater for the high SES than the low SES. Conversely, when the relatedness need was satisfied, the impact bias was greater for the low SES than the high SES. In conclusion, subjective SES moderated the influence of basic psychological needs satisfaction on increasing the impact bias in affective forecasting.

A pilot study investigating affective forecasting biases with a novel virtual reality-based paradigm

A body of research indicates that people are prone to overestimate the affective impact of future events. Here, we developed a novel experimental paradigm to study these affective forecasting biases under laboratory conditions using subjective (arousal and valence) and autonomic measures (skin conductance responses, SCRs, and heart rate). Thirty participants predicted their emotional responses to 15 unpleasant, 15 neutral, and 15 pleasant scenarios (affective forecasting phase) to which they were then exposed in virtual reality (emotional experience phase). Results showed that participants anticipated more extreme arousal and valence scores than they actually experienced for unpleasant and pleasant scenarios. The emotional experience phase was characterized by classic autonomic patterns, i.e., higher SCRs for emotionally arousing scenarios and greater peak cardiac acceleration for pleasant scenarios. During the affective forecasting phase, we found only a moderate association between arousal scores and SCRs and no valence-dependent modulation of cardiac activity. This paradigm opens up new perspectives for investigating affective forecasting abilities under lab-controlled conditions, notably in psychiatric disorders with anxious anticipations.

Imagine distant-future outcome: Mental simulation of COVID-19 vaccinations.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global public health crisis. Although it has been expected that the vaccination of COVID-19 mitigates the crisis, some people are reluctant to receive the COVID-19 vaccination. Based on the theory of mental simulation and affective forecasting, we investigated how mental simulations influence COVID-19 vaccination intention. Three preregistered experiments were conducted (total n = 970). Experiment 1 tested for whether outcome (vs. process) simulation would increase COVID-19 vaccination intention. Experiment 2 explored whether temporal proximity of simulations (distant-future outcome, near-future outcome, process) modulate the effects of mental simulation on expected emotion and COVID-19 vaccination intention. Experiment 3 examined the role of the number of sensory modalities (multisensory, unisensory) in mental simulations. The result of Experiment 1 (n = 271) demonstrated that outcome (vs. process) simulation of the COVID-19 vaccination led to greater COVID-19 vaccination intention. The result of Experiment 2 (n = 227) revealed that distant-future outcome simulation (vs. near-future outcome simulation, process simulation) increased expected positivity and then enhanced COVID-19 vaccination intention. The result of Experiment 3 (n = 472) also demonstrated that distant-future outcome simulation (vs. near-future outcome simulation, process simulation) increased expected positivity and then enhanced COVID-19 vaccination intention regardless of the number of sensory modalities to be simulated. Our findings reveal how mental simulations influence COVID-19 vaccination intention and provide practical implications for effective health communication strategies for the COVID-19 vaccination intention. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

The effect of exposure to COVID-19 on life satisfaction: The mediating role of hyperarousal and moderating/mediating role of affective forecasting

BackgroundAs a global trauma event, the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hugely impacts people's mental health and well-being. The purpose of our study is threefold: first, investigate the relationship between exposure to COVID-19 and life satisfaction among a large sample in China; second, test the mediating role of hyperarousal in the association between exposure to COVID-19 and life satisfaction; third, explore the moderating/mediating role of affective forecasting in the association between hyperarousal and life satisfaction. MethodThe current study recruited 5546 participants to complete a set of self-report questionnaires online from April 22, 2020 to April 24, 2020. The moderated mediation and chain mediation model analyses were conducted using the SPSS software and PROCESS macro program. ResultsExposure to COVID-19 negatively predicted life satisfaction (Effect = −0.058, p < 0.001). This relationship was partially mediated by the hyperarousal level (Effect = −0.018, CI = [−0.024, −0.013]). The moderating role of forecasted positive affect (PA)/forecasted negative affect (NA) between hyperarousal and life satisfaction was significant (β = 0.058, CI = [0.035, 0.081]; β = 0.037, CI = [0.014, 0.06]). The chain mediating effect of hyperarousal and forecasted PA/forecasted NA on the relationship between exposure to COVID-19 and life satisfaction was also significant (Effect = −0.003, CI = [−0.004, −0.002]; Effect = −0.006, CI = [−0.008, −0.004]). LimitationsThe cross-sectional design precludes causal inference. ConclusionGreater exposure to COVID-19 was associated with more severe hyperarousal symptoms, decreased life satisfaction. Forecasted PA and forecasted NA could moderate and mediate the negative impact of hyperarousal on life satisfaction. The moderating/mediating role of forecasted PA/NA implied that future interventions targeting at improving affective forecasting and reducing hyperarousal might be helpful to improve life satisfaction during the post-COVID-19 era.

The Influence of Extraversion on Political Polarization and Affective Forecasting

In the United States, political division has continually worsened over the years, with the growing divide between the Left and Right leading to increased animosity between members of the two parties. This study explores this expanding division by analyzing the influence of political polarization on individuals’ willingness to work for a humanitarian cause. Specifically, we examine if an individual’s extraversion rating influences how long they spend on charitable task, or how long they predict they would spend on the task, and if the presence of cues associated with their in-group or out-group would influence their participation as well. This study does so by determining an association between extraversion and the assigned task type (predictor or engager) as well as between extraversion and the party they identify with. It also looked at the correlation of extraversion and time spent on a charitable task supposedly sponsored by a control, co-partisan, or counter-partisan charity organization. Ultimately, we found no association between extraversion and the time spent on the charitable task, nor did it find a link in extraversion and party identification. This study ran into some limitations that may have impacted its overall results – including time constraints and a singular focus placed on the personality trait of extraversion. This study demonstrated the importance of participation within prosocial activities and the implications of activities that influence this participation. To see the complete thesis, please visit https://scholar.colorado.edu/concern/undergraduate_honors_theses/d791sh52s.

Behavioral Immune System, Psychological Immune System, and General Psychophysical Health during COVID-19 Pandemic

With innate biological immunity proving inept and an acute lack of effective SARS-CoV-2 medication/immunization, strict restrictive, preventive, and protective measures were introduced worldwide. Despite flattening the pandemic-growth curve, these were met with resistance and heightened psychopathology among the masses. Acknowledging individuals’ distinct adaptations towards supporting and protecting their health before/when any disease-state emerges in their body or the population surrounding them holds implications for population health and the public health programs. Humans have evolved a concomitant behavioral immune system (BIS), a coordinated suite of psychological mechanisms (affective-cognitive-behavioral) that motivate prophylactic avoidance of infectious-disease vectors. They also possess Psychological Immune System (PIS) comprising personal resilience resources and adaptive capacities that can promote psychological health-protective behaviors. The present phenomenological study explores the dynamics of general populations’ experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic, to understand their behavioral immune, psychological immune, and general psychophysical health functioning and the association between them. An attempt has been made to validate the BIS model (Schaller &amp; Park, 2011) and the PIS (Olah, 1996) within the pandemic context. Semi-structured and in-depth telephonic interviews were conducted with thirty-five participants. Data was analyzed using directed qualitative content analysis. Participants had deteriorated psychophysical health and an activated BIS. Heightened BIS consequated negative attitudes and outcomes. PIS resources helped maintain functionality, positivity, and stress-resistance, and those with lower behavioral immune activation and psychological immunity had more health-related complaints. The study demonstrates that BIS and PIS are important factors for health behavior and well-being and suggests a more integrative approach to health research.

Anticipated suicidal and death ideation in response to an imagined dementia diagnosis: A qualitative study.

Alzheimer's disease and related dementias are prevalent, highly impactful, and feared diagnoses. A mixed methods study using semi-structured interviews was conducted to clarify causes of dementia-related anxiety. Fifty community-dwelling adults aged 58 to 89 (M = 70.92, SD = 6.08) were recruited from a university participant registry and Memory Clinic; none had dementia diagnoses. Analyses revealed that 42% (n = 21) of participants anticipated suicidal or death ideation if diagnosed with dementia. Among participants endorsing anticipated suicidal or death ideation, responses ranged from active, specific plans, including interest in physician-assisted suicide, to more passive wishes to hasten death rather than continue to live with dementia. Within reports of both anticipated suicidal and death ideation, three subthemes emerged. Participants reported concerns about becoming a burden to others, the devaluation of life/loss of self with dementia, and the desire for (and anticipated thwarting of) personal control as factors contributing to their anticipated responses to a dementia diagnosis. Statements of anticipated suicidal and death ideation were contingent on a dementia diagnosis and may reflect errors in affective forecasting. Nevertheless, given the prevalence of dementias and older adults' elevated rates of suicide, the intersection of these two public health issues warrants greater attention.

Using emotion to guide decisions: the accuracy and perceived value of emotional intensity forecasts

Forecasts about future emotion are often inaccurate, so why do people rely on them to make decisions? People may forecast some features of their emotional experience better than others, and they may report relying on forecasts that are more accurate to make decisions. To test this, four studies assessed the features of emotion people reported forecasting to make decisions about their careers, education, politics, and health. In Study 1, graduating medical students reported relying more on forecast emotional intensity than frequency or duration to decide how to rank residency programs as part of the process of being matched with a program. Similarly, participants reported relying more on forecast emotional intensity than frequency or duration to decide which universities to apply to (Study 2), which presidential candidate to vote for (Study 3), and whether to travel as Covid-19 rates declined (Study 4). Studies 1 and 3 also assessed forecasting accuracy. Participants forecast emotional intensity more accurately than frequency or duration. People make better decisions when they can anticipate the future. Thus, people’s reports of relying on forecast emotional intensity to guide life-changing decisions, and the greater accuracy of these forecasts, provide important new evidence of the adaptive value of affective forecasts.

Examining the Causes of Irrational Food Buying and Delaying Gratification as a Solution

Impulsive food buying resulting in waisted items and emotional regrets is regarded as biased buying behaviours through irrational decision making. Extensive previous research has brought forward projection bias, associative memory and episodic foresight, emotions and impulsivity, affective forecasting, and physical arousal as some of the contributors to the tendency to pursue immediate rewards of thrill and satiation over delayed and long-term fulfillment. The present study focuses on the causes of this phenomenon from the psychological perspective, identifying various internal and environmental factors and their relevance based on evidence of past research. It closely compares the Rational Choice Theory with actual shopping behaviours and challenges a fixed definition of objectivity and rationality in decision making. It then attempts to make connections between the cognitive causes of irrational decision making and immediate gratification, suggesting that postponing gratification may help with making more rational decisions when browsing for foods.

Getting COVID-19: Anticipated negative emotions are worse than experienced negative emotions

ObjectiveWhen people think about negative events that may occur in the future, they tend to overestimate their emotional reactions, and these “affective forecasts” can influence their present behavior (Wilson and Gilbert, 2003). The present research examined affective forecasting for COVID-19 infection including the associations between emotions and preventive intentions and behavior. MethodsIn two studies, we compared individuals’ anticipated emotions and recalled emotions for COVID-19 infection. Study 1 asked college students (N = 219) and Study 2 asked general adults (N = 401) to either predict their emotions in response to a future COVID-19 infection or to recall their emotions associated with a previous infection. ResultsIn both studies, reliable differences in negative emotions emerged. Those who were predicting their feelings associated with a future infection anticipated more negative emotion than those who were recalling their feelings associated with a past infection reported. Greater negative emotion in both studies was significantly associated with being more likely to have been vaccinated as well as higher intentions to get the booster vaccine. ConclusionsThese findings suggest that compared to those who have had a COVID-19 infection, those who have not yet experienced infection anticipate they will experience greater negative emotion, and this may have implications for preventive behaviors. In general, these findings suggest that people may have an impact bias for COVID-19 infection.

Sunspots That Matter: The Effect of Weather on Solar Technology Adoption

This paper tests for the presence of behavioral biases in household decisions to adopt solar photovoltaic installations using exogenous variation in weather. I find that residential technology uptake responds to exceptional weather, defined as deviations from the long-term mean, in line with the average time gap between decision-making and completion of the installation. In particular, a one standard deviation increase in sunshine hours during the purchase period leads to an approximate increase of 4.7% in weekly solar PV installations. This effect persists in aggregate data. I consider a range of potential mechanisms and find suggestive evidence for projection bias and salience as key drivers of my results.

Evolution of Information Projection Bias through Costly Communication in Overlapping Generations Organizations

Evolution of Information Projection Bias through Costly Communication in Overlapping Generations Organizations

At the Crossroad of Research: The Impact of Projection Bias on the Decision to Explore or Exploit Ideas

At the Crossroad of Research: The Impact of Projection Bias on the Decision to Explore or Exploit Ideas

ANTICIPATED SUICIDAL AND DEATH IDEATION IN RESPONSE TO AN IMAGINED DEMENTIA DIAGNOSIS

Abstract Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias are prevalent, incurable, and highly impactful diagnoses. Dementias are therefore feared diagnoses. Dementia-related anxiety (DRA) is anxiety about a current or future diagnosis of dementia and the associated complex symptoms. In a mixed methods study, semi-structured interviews were conducted to identify causes of DRA and revealed that numerous adults anticipated suicidal or death ideation if diagnosed with dementia. Fifty cognitively healthy, community-dwelling adults aged 58 to 89 (M = 70.92, SD = 6.08; 64% female) were recruited from a university participant registry and Memory Clinic. Among participants endorsing anticipated suicidal or death ideation, responses ranged from active plans, including interest in physician-assisted suicide, to more passive wishes to hasten death rather than continue to live with dementia. Within reports of both anticipated suicidal and death ideation, subthemes emerged, including the concern about becoming a burden to others in more advanced stages of dementia, the devaluation of life or the self with dementia, and the desire for (and anticipated thwarting of) control and independence. Statements of anticipated suicidal and death ideation were contingent on a future dementia diagnosis and may reflect errors in affective forecasting. Nevertheless, given the prevalence of dementias and older adults’ elevated rates of suicide, the intersection of these two public health issues warrants greater attention and further investigation.

Be optimistic or be cautious? Affective forecasting bias in allocation decisions and its effect.

People's forecasts of their future emotions play an essential role in their behavior and experience of well-being. However, their emotional reactions may fall short of what they expect, which has implications for subsequent decision making. The current paper investigated the accuracy of affective forecasting about resource allocations and how this (in)accuracy predicts future allocation decisions. Two experimental studies were conducted. Study 1 (N = 84) examined the extent to which people can accurately predict how allocation decisions will feel using an ultimatum game on the part of the allocator. Study 2 tested whether the affective forecasting bias affects future allocation decisions, with 192 participants playing a two-round ultimatum game on the part of allocators. Study 1 found an affective forecasting bias, and people anticipated more powerful emotional reactions to both positive and negative allocation events than they actually experienced when the events occurred. Study 2 found that increased affective forecasting bias resulted in less generous decisions in positive event conditions and more generous decisions in negative event conditions. These results extend previous findings concerning affective forecasting bias and the feelings-as-information model in resource allocation interactions and show that the difference between anticipated and experienced emotion is also informative in allocation decisions. The results suggest that being more cautious when forecasting positive outcomes and more optimistic when forecasting negative outcomes can be beneficial to one's well-being.

What is it (like) to imagine an emotion?

AbstractWhat does it mean to imagine an emotion? The present article introduces a typology of three different ways in which it is possible to imagine emotion. This typology allows to individuate a form of imagining emotion that has been underexplored: emotion-like imagination. Emotion-like imagination, rather than being a way of merely imagining that a certain emotional experience occurs or a form of responding emotionally to imagined representations, requires a subject to re-enact the emotional state itself so that the imagining has emotional phenomenal properties as its main content. We go on to provide a first in-depth exploration of emotion-like imagination, suggesting emotion regulation mechanisms as the empirical grounds for its cognitive realizability. Finally, we sketch how emotion-like imagination can fruitfully complement discussions of affective forecasting and empathetic understanding.